AFL-pick your own line

[diesel_85]

I am going to sign up to a new sportsbetting agent before the afl season begins as im sick of TAB sportsbet. I like IASbet at the moment but need some help from those in the know as to which bookies offer the 'pick your own line' markets. Also what are your thoughts on this type of punting?

 

[mattys123]

Centrebet seem to have the best "PYOL" betting for both AFL and NRL, in my opinion anyway.

I made a fair bit through CB last year by backing 2 underdogs at a larger then offered line (@1.91 line) because most weekends there are 3-4 upsets in the AFL, and I found it better to back against the fav, then take a fav with a handicap, even if it was reduced.

It's all down to ones confidence though.

If you believe you can pick the 2-3 teams a week who can cover a start, then feel free to bet that way, I just found my method fairly successful last season.

 

[Beardown1023]

I also smashed PYOL last year. From rounds 1-22, I had normally 8 leg multis, picking the team I believed would win the game with odds of $1.20. For example, if Collingwood were paying $1.60 to beat St Kilda, I'd give Collingwood a 20 point headstart and get odds of $1.20. Do this for all 8 games and you have $4.30 odds.
Obviously I didn't always have 8 legs or $1.20 per leg, but I won these bets 4 out of 5 times, so definitely a good way to make money

 

[diesel_85]

thanks for the help guys, really appreciated.

Im thinking of using the PYOL in a similar way, multi-ing a couple of 1.20-1.40 lines into each other each round.


It seems Centrebet is the only bookie really offering this, seems the way to go!

 

[Beardown1023]

Just keep in mind though, because twice last season, just to get another 10-15% to my multi, I had a Bulldogs opponent at $1.10 - $1.15 (60-70 point head start), and got done twice because the Bulldogs smashed them by 80 odd lol.

It's not all as safe as it seems, particularly as 50% or more of games these days are margins over 40 points

 

[iluvparis]

Is that stat a fact Joel?

Would be interesting to see the actual numbers - might offer up some good betting opportunities.

 

[Kahuna]

Centrebet is the way to go, definately a bit of value if you can pick a few upsets, give an underdog a minus line and if you are right you will be rolling in it.

Just be careful with the $1.10 lines trying to get some extra value, I get burnt often by this.

 

[Beardown1023]

It's not a fact, but every week just for a bit of fun (cos the payouts are huge), I also put a small 8 leg multi on the winner of each game (plus margin below or above 39).
When you're picking all 8 games to be +/- 39, you soon start to realise how many go over 39 points.
I used to pick 6-7 games at under 39 and 1 or 2 over 39, but by the end of the season, I was picking 4-5 to be over 39.
You've got 30 points quite often decided by halftime, then it's either a comeback by the losing team or trashtime. When you have Coll, Geel, WB and St K playing, that's 4 games alone that turn to trashtime in most cases

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah - part of the reason I prefer betting H2H. You know both sides are always going to be giving it their all to win a game, but who knows how hard a side will try to make sure they only lose by 39 points.

 

[dr nick]

It's not a fact, but every week just for a bit of fun (cos the payouts are huge), I also put a small 8 leg multi on the winner of each game (plus margin below or above 39).
When you're picking all 8 games to be +/- 39, you soon start to realise how many go over 39 points.
I used to pick 6-7 games at under 39 and 1 or 2 over 39, but by the end of the season, I was picking 4-5 to be over 39.
You've got 30 points quite often decided by halftime, then it's either a comeback by the losing team or trashtime. When you have Coll, Geel, WB and St K playing, that's 4 games alone that turn to trashtime in most cases

The average score difference in 2010 was 35.3 points, but
The median score difference was 30.5 points.
There were 66 games out of 176 where the margin was >39.5
Only once (round 4) were there more than 4 games with a margin >39.5 in a single round - and that included a 40 point win to Sydney over the Kangaroos

Carlton were involved in the most games with margins >39.5 (12) (lol)
Port Adelaide were involved in the fewest (4)

 

[Beardown1023]

Try it this season lol. Even just bet $1 per round.
The key though is to pick your winner and +/- 39 BEFORE you look at the odds
Then multi it.

You get massive odds. The closest I've come is picking all 8 winners and missing out on 2 margins, and then one week nailing all margins but picking 7 out of 8 winners

 

[stuziman]

What was the odds?

 

[Beardown1023]

I dont remember the odds now, but even if you multi the 8 lowest outcomes for the round (say $2.50 per game), you get odds of $1525

Take out 2 favourites and add two $4 legs, gives you $9765. A lazy tenner and you can win 100K