Backline Premiums (And other upgrade targets)

[fatmungus]

Considering there's a forward-line one, I decided to make a back-line one as well.
(Insert reasons/plea for keeping thread here).

Obviously people will be looking to upgrade their back-line soon, but who's going to surpass the season with a high average? I know many people look to only upgrade to premiums but I ask how the hell can you afford this?

Anywho here's a little break down of who's available.
They are in my order of preference but feel free to dispute/flame.

Premiums
C Cornes ($420,000, BE: 99)
Bowden ($430,000, BE: 59)
Lockyer ($398,000, BE: 104)
Goddard ($407,000, BE: 120)
P Burgoyne ($398,000, BE: 84)

Fallen/bargain
S Fisher ($365,000, BE: 99)
Hodge ($366,000, BE: 98)
Enright ($359,000)
Mackie ($344,000, BE: 82)

7th spot
A McPhee ($345,000, BE: 73)
B Thorton ($330,000, BE: 14)
Wirrpanda ($364,000, BE: 22)

Prices approx, BE from tooserious
Also please add anyone who I have forgotten.


Like most people I will need to make 3 upgrades (possibly 4) in the backs and the same in the forward line, with 2 in mids. Quite alot huh. So the main question is how many premiums can you afford?

Sure selecting players from the top group is going to give you piece of mind but will their price drop in later rounds? PPG/$ is good for fallen players but people like Mackie, Embley ect. might hold their current average.


The "annual backline meltdown thread" is a good place to discuss individual trading and downgrade targets:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=560251

 

[kangaroo19]

I must admit, I've been looking at these players a lot this week.

I think Bock would also have a case to fitting into this category, as he seems to consistently rack up the possessions.

I've got $394k to spend on a defender and already have Goddard, Fisher, Bock, and Cornes, but I'm really struggling to work out which one to get. There seems to be so many good players that have fallen in price, and represent great value like you mentioned. Is it worth getting the extra money (at the cost of an extra trade) to get Bowden (or similar) or going with a Mackie or Hodge?

Honestly, I think I'll be getting either Mackie or Hodge as it doesn't dry up the cash and should still produce pretty good results.

Now the only problem is, which one of those 2?

Edit: Sorry, didn't realise this wasn't meant for discussing individual trades.

 

[spence]

Despite how cheap Luke Hodge is I can't decide whether I want to get him or spend more and get Bowden. Just not certain Hodge can average over 90 this year.

 

[Blues_FC]

My backline is looking ok at the moment, and unless there are any injuries, I'm only planning to make 1 upgrade in the backs this season.

I have:

The Chad
Goddard
Hodge
Lockyer
Enright
Houlihan
Rookie

At the moment, I'm not planning on upgrading Houlihan. He's racking up more than enough points for me to leave him there for the rest of the year. My backline rookies at the moment are Petrenko, Suban and Cheney. I'll be looking to trade one of those out for one of Mackie/Fisher in the next 4 weeks. If Tom Harley comes back in the next couple of rounds, then I'll try to get Mackie in as soon as possible.

 

[kangaroo19]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm thinking. I don't know how Hodge will go this year. He's very popular - in fact, I think he's the most popular defender. Throwing Bowden into the mix makes things much more different.

I'm torn whether or not to spend the extra $23k to get Hodge (over Mackie), and furthermore, an extra $100k or so to get Bowden. JB looks good again this year, but I guess you're paying for him at his peak. Might be worth waiting for him to drop and then pounce?

FWIW, my backline is as follows:

Chad
Fisher
Goddard
Bock
Adcock
Gilbert
Petrenko (Mackie or Hodge this week)

 

[AC for PM]

Jump on Hodge this week if you don't have him - he loves playing the Blues.

 

[fatmungus]

By all means discuss trading, just thought i'd put a link in there for reference.

My backline is
B Goddard
S Fisher
C Cornes
L Harding
S McMahon
T Walker
Raines
Suban

Looking to get Hodge or mackie for walker and lockyer or bowden for harding.

BTW:
Hodge's last 3 season averages were 96 in 2008, 93 in 2007, and 90 in 2006.

Jump on Hodge this week if you don't have him - he loves playing the Blues.

But he has a pretty high BE anyway. Ave against carlton is 100 tho.

 

[SuperCodge]

I've a theory that any mid or premium back in a team that is winning consistently will return pretty good points. Evident in the points spread across the St Kilda sback line,
Cartlon as well. The Geelong boys might not be quite up there because of Bartell and Ablett playing every fookling where
I'd love to see a stat for what percentage of total points per game is being racked up in the last quarter by the above teams as they drown the game off..

 

[SuperCodge]

perhaps not "any" but certainly by the end of the season it would be interesting to see those stats in the wake of the zone-style game plans

 

[kangaroo19]

I've a theory that any mid or premium back in a team that is winning consistently will return pretty good points. Evident in the points spread across the St Kilda sback line,
Cartlon as well. The Geelong boys might not be quite up there because of Bartell and Ablett playing every fookling where
I'd love to see a stat for what percentage of total points per game is being racked up in the last quarter by the above teams as they drown the game off..

That's a fair point. Maybe this is where Hodge's numbers will be affected? Hawks start winning and he starts hitting those 100's consistently?

 

[Hodges]

I think once the backline settles down a bit, he will be back to his free-roaming best. Thats when he will start to score a lot better. Im bringing Hodgy in this week, he carves Carlton.

My backline will be:

Chad
Goddard
Fisher
Bock
Waite
Hodge
Houlihan

Wont have to touch it for the whole year... *touch wood no more injuries*

 

[Captain Dreamer]

What about Embley at around the $365k mark. Scored 100+ two weeks in a row and was $400k+ at the start of the year. Should appreciate in value. One of those guys that isnt popular, but I'm not sure why? Is it his injury history (which isnt that bad) or that he plays for WCE?

 

[Juddtastic]

What about Embley at around the $365k mark. Scored 100+ two weeks in a row and was $400k+ at the start of the year. Should appreciate in value. One of those guys that isnt popular, but I'm not sure why? Is it his injury history (which isnt that bad) or that he plays for WCE?

I'd say no one has mentioned him before due to his limited pre season & uncertainty over his role in the team. But at this stage he looks to be hitting top form & could prove to be a nice unique choice.

 

[nevergunalerners]

Hodge vs. Mackie ?
Both have dropped about the same in price.

Leaning towards Hodge....

Will he have a higher average than Mackie this year?

 

[Pie Legend]

Ellis anyone? When is he due back?

 

[DT_fanatic]

Was gonna go either Bock or Mackie for Dempsey, going with Bock. Higher ceiling imo. And doesn't have to depend on others to score well.

That makes my backline:

Chornes
Goddard
Fisher
Hodge
Bock
Raines (if/once he comes back)
Hill

Petrenko (should be greenwood after next week)
Broughton

Raines upgraded in about 5-6 weeks hopefully. Hopefully Hill just keeps rising, not sure what I'll do with him. Couple of weakish players they are though but I'm quite confident with the 5 premiums covering for them.

 

[Big Kitty]

My Backline atm:

Fisher
Goddard
Newman
Hodge
Houlihan
Raines
Petrenko/Hill

Will do one of the rookies for Greenwood if he can hold his spot and look to upgrade the other to Bock in the next week. Will be happy to upgrade Raines last, he will hold his spot and imo he can avg 75~.

 

[phealey]

Grant Birchall will be back pretty soon, another option to look at.

 

[chadleverington]

Grant Birchall will be back pretty soon, another option to look at.

With Hodge,Embley,Lockyer,Carazzo etc defenders Birchall wont be a premium anymore.

 

[kangaroo19]

With Hodge,Embley,Lockyer,Carazzo etc defenders Birchall wont be a premium anymore.

One of Birchall's strengths as a premium was that he was considered so durable. That's gone through the window this year, so hard to see him being that premium now.

Thoughts on Hodge v Mackie+23k?

 

[banana_bus]

One of Birchall's strengths as a premium was that he was considered so durable. That's gone through the window this year, so hard to see him being that premium now.

Thoughts on Hodge v Mackie+23k?

He broke his thumb mate, hardly an injury risk. Lock him in for the rest of the season when he comes back.

 

[kangaroo19]

He broke his thumb mate, hardly an injury risk. Lock him in for the rest of the season when he comes back.

Didn't he do his hammy and out for a few weeks in pre-season as well though?

2 injuries in 2 months, when he hadn't missed a game in 3(?) years.

 

[amazingjoshy]

One of Birchall's strengths as a premium was that he was considered so durable. That's gone through the window this year, so hard to see him being that premium now.

Thoughts on Hodge v Mackie+23k?

Exactly what Im pondering right now....had all but pushed the button on Mackie last night.....now Im strongly heading towards Hodge, main worry for me is durability

 

[kangaroo19]

Exactly what Im pondering right now....had all but pushed the button on Mackie last night.....now Im strongly heading towards Hodge, main worry for me is durability

Who would be more durable?

 

[amazingjoshy]

Who would be more durable?

not sure, would seem to be Hodge as he barely missed a game before last season

maybe Enrights an option, rarely seems to miss

the extra $$ would be very handy next week though, I think Im back on Mackie