Current Belgian Tourist Celine Cremer Missing - Tasmania

[BomberManU]

The longer this goes on, the more suspicious it appears. Everything says misadventure/accident, but would have expected something to be found by now. It's a fairly gentle walk to the falls, but some very rugged terrain surrounds it.

Belgian friend of missing tourist Celine Cremer visits search area with police

A friend of missing Belgian tourist Celine Cremer flew to Tasmania and was shown the wilderness area where the 31-year-old disappeared a month ago, with police reporting a cadaver dog on loan from NSW has found nothing.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

The longer this goes on, the more suspicious it appears. Everything says misadventure/accident, but would have expected something to be found by now. It's a fairly gentle walk to the falls, but some very rugged terrain surrounds it.

Belgian friend of missing tourist Celine Cremer visits search area with police

A friend of missing Belgian tourist Celine Cremer flew to Tasmania and was shown the wilderness area where the 31-year-old disappeared a month ago, with police reporting a cadaver dog on loan from NSW has found nothing.

www.abc.net.au

Do they know if she went there alone?

 

[Kurve]

Her phone was pinged to an area around 500m in to the trail but the dogs have found nothing.

Belgian friend of missing tourist Celine Cremer visits search area with police

A friend of missing Belgian tourist Celine Cremer flew to Tasmania and was shown the wilderness area where the 31-year-old disappeared a month ago, with police reporting a cadaver dog on loan from NSW has found nothing.

www.abc.net.au

 

[BomberManU]

Do they know if she went there alone?

They're not sure, but that was her plan. It turned out her car had been in the carpark for longer than they originally thought, but no signs of foul play. I still say mis-adventure, but not as sure as I was.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

They're not sure, but that was her plan. It turned out her car had been in the carpark for longer than they originally thought, but no signs of foul play. I still say mis-adventure, but not as sure as I was.

It would be very easy to get lost, have a fall, in wild country like that. Rain would wash away traces so the dogs couldn’t get a scent

 

[BomberManU]

It would be very easy to get lost, have a fall, in wild country like that. Rain would wash away traces so the dogs couldn’t get a scent

The track is very friendly, no real danger there. They expected to find body/belongings by the fourth or fifth obstacle, if she ended up in the water.

 

[BomberManU]

Where is Celine Cremer? - Tasmanian Times

Experienced bushwalker Ted Mead is mystified that Tasmania Police aren't interested in his insights.

tasmaniantimes.com

 

[Kurve]

It would be very easy to get lost, have a fall, in wild country like that. Rain would wash away traces so the dogs couldn’t get a scent

On the other hand, not so much in Australia but in the states there quite a few cases one just recently, where women have been murdered on hiking trails. Their cars are found as if nothing is wrong, near the entrance to the trail.

Tasmania's quite rugged though, it might be easy to get lost.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

On the other hand, not so much in Australia but in the states there quite a few cases one just recently, where women have been murdered on hiking trails. Their cars are found as if nothing is wrong, near the entrance to the trail.

Tasmania's quite rugged though, it might be easy to get lost.

There have also been cases of suicide - I remember years ago, a Melbourne woman dropped her kids off at school then drove a couple of hours out into the country and disappeared. Her car was found at a scenic lookout but she was never found.

 

[Kurve]

 

[BomberManU]

Rob Parsons, a bushwalking Youtuber, has uploaded an excellent video. He has collated all of CC's GPS and cell data and travelled exactly the same route. He comes to a point which he believes, backed up by the data, is where she took a wrong turn and more importantly why she did this. He follows her trail until the 'pings' stopped, then tries to do what he believes Celine would have done at this stage, with light running out.
Parsons thinks that she either lost her phone, or hit a temporary 'black spot', though he had full coverage at all times.
The terrain is unforgiving, I haven't really seen anything like it and I lived in Tassie for 27 years. There is little doubt she got lost - any sort of foul play doesn't really make sense, once you see the location and the GPS/cell trail shows with little doubt what happened.

 

[Kurve]

Rob Parsons, a bushwalking Youtuber, has uploaded an excellent video. He has collated all of CC's GPS and cell data and travelled exactly the same route. He comes to a point which he believes, backed up by the data, is where she took a wrong turn and more importantly why she did this. He follows her trail until the 'pings' stopped, then tries to do what he believes Celine would have done at this stage, with light running out.
Parsons thinks that she either lost her phone, or hit a temporary 'black spot', though he had full coverage at all times.
The terrain is unforgiving, I haven't really seen anything like it and I lived in Tassie for 27 years. There is little doubt she got lost - any sort of foul play doesn't really make sense, once you see the location and the GPS/cell trail shows with little doubt what happened.

Thanks for sharing, that was fascinating.

Is it possible Celine's phone went flat, over the proposition she dropped or lost it, and it's actually still with her?
It's still a bit of a mystery if light was fading surely she'd only keep moving while there was light and she'd have tried to find somewhere to shelter or camp for the night?

 

[BomberManU]

Thanks for sharing, that was fascinating.

Is it possible Celine's phone went flat, over the proposition she dropped or lost it, and it's actually still with her?
It's still a bit of a mystery if light was fading surely she'd only keep moving while there was light and she'd have tried to find somewhere to shelter or camp for the night?

No, apparently her phone kept making contact with the cell towers the next day. I do wonder if she tried to call anyone, it wasn't mentioned in the video but someone did ask in the comments.
She appears to have been well prepared, so probably had an external battery for her phone.
I found those coloured plastic strips, left by the SES searchers, quite eerie.

 

[Kurve]

No, apparently her phone kept making contact with the cell towers the next day. I do wonder if she tried to call anyone, it wasn't mentioned in the video but someone did ask in the comments.
She appears to have been well prepared, so probably had an external battery for her phone.
I found those coloured plastic strips, left by the SES searchers, quite eerie.

Apparently if you have "Find My Phone" enabled on newer devices, the phone can continue to send signals through Bluetooth for up to 24 hours after the phone's switched off or the battery goes flat.

 

[BomberManU]

Apparently if you have "Find My Phone" enabled on newer devices, the phone can continue to send signals through Bluetooth for up to 24 hours after the phone's switched off or the battery goes flat.

Yeah, I definitely think it's a possibility, but I guess Parsons has to stick to the theory that the evidence suggests to start with.
Another thing that struck me was the clear indications of people stepping/climbing over branches and tree limbs, by the moss being disturbed - near the end, when he was searching where the SES hadn't been, he pointed out another instance of this but didn't say anything about it. Unless I just misinterpreted where he was at that stage?

 

[Cataholic]

Yeah, I definitely think it's a possibility, but I guess Parsons has to stick to the theory that the evidence suggests to start with.
Another thing that struck me was the clear indications of people stepping/climbing over branches and tree limbs, by the moss being disturbed - near the end, when he was searching where the SES hadn't been, he pointed out another instance of this but didn't say anything about it. Unless I just misinterpreted where he was at that stage?

Notice the same thing. He points at a branch with a section of moss dislodged before he steps over it without saying a word.

I've watched, and enjoyed, a few of Rob's videos. He's pretty thorough......

I wonder if any analysis has been done on her speed between points. Was she ever 'running' to indicate a pursuit, or panic, or did she move at the same, steady pace throughout?

Rob's analysis indicates Celine was a careful, thoughtful person. He didn't find any particular black spots for Google Maps or phone coverage in general, so I'm leaning towards his hypothesis that Celine lost her phone in the vicinity of her last ping and that sealed her fate.

 

[BomberManU]

Notice the same thing. He points at a branch with a section of moss dislodged before he steps over it without saying a word.

I've watched, and enjoyed, a few of Rob's videos. He's pretty thorough......

I wonder if any analysis has been done on her speed between points. Was she ever 'running' to indicate a pursuit, or panic, or did she moved at the same, steady pace throughout?

Rob's analysis indicates Celine was a careful, thoughtful person. He didn't find any particular black spots for Google Maps or phone coverage in general, so I'm leaning towards his hypothesis that Celine lost her phone in the vicinity of her last ping and that sealed her fate.

I think the time between pings indicated that she wasn't running. Plus, she stood still a few times, presumably checking maps.

 

[Cataholic]

I think the time between pings indicated that she wasn't running. Plus, she stood still a few times, presumably checking maps.

It's odd how her phone suddenly stopped pinging.

Did she lose it, drop it and break it, or did the battery go flat?

 

[BomberManU]

It's odd how her phone suddenly stopped pinging.

Did she lose it, drop it and break it, or did the battery go flat?

Rob's working on the theory that she lost it, as it kept connecting to a cell tower the following day. I guess we'll never know, unless it's found - and given the terrain, that would be a fluke.

 

[Cataholic]

Rob's working on the theory that she lost it, as it kept connecting to a cell tower the following day. I guess we'll never know, unless it's found - and given the terrain, that would be a fluke.

I've got to understand the difference between pings, GPS and wifi better, but did the connections on the last day not give a precise location?

 

[BomberManU]

I've got to understand the difference between pings, GPS and wifi better, but did the connections on the last day not give a precise location?

Yeah, I'm also not 100% across it. My understanding is, when she opened Google Maps it 'pinged', giving her exact location and time via GPS - this is how he was able to follow her route exactly.
I'm going to watch the start of the video again, to better understand the 'cell' pings.
Kurve - any insights on cell, etc?

 

[Cataholic]

Yeah, I'm also not 100% across it. My understanding is, when she opened Google Maps it 'pinged', giving her exact location and time via GPS - this is how he was able to follow her route exactly.
I'm going to watch the start of the video again, to better understand the 'cell' pings.
Kurve - any insights on cell, etc?

Yeah, as I understood it from Rob's explanation Google Maps gives precise coordinates but the pings don't.

I assume they would've already done so if the pings could've been triangulated.

 

[Kurve]

Yeah, I'm also not 100% across it. My understanding is, when she opened Google Maps it 'pinged', giving her exact location and time via GPS - this is how he was able to follow her route exactly.
I'm going to watch the start of the video again, to better understand the 'cell' pings.
Kurve - any insights on cell, etc?

I need to listen to it again as well I think, my understanding of it was that the phone stopped tracking GPS location but pinged off towers, which won't give an exact location in that the towers it can ping off can be kind of random.

 

[Kurve]

It might be helpful to know what kind of phone she had.

 

[Kurve]

Yeah, I definitely think it's a possibility, but I guess Parsons has to stick to the theory that the evidence suggests to start with.
Another thing that struck me was the clear indications of people stepping/climbing over branches and tree limbs, by the moss being disturbed - near the end, when he was searching where the SES hadn't been, he pointed out another instance of this but didn't say anything about it. Unless I just misinterpreted where he was at that stage?

Do we know if investigators took dogs in? Cadaver dogs might help at this point.

It would be nice to find her and give her back to her family.