mpal6
Norm Smith Medallist
Form line:
Both clubs at interesting cross roads coming off a loss in the last round. Brisbane lost away in Adelaide as well as against Hawks at MCG post-bye. Sydney has a meddling form line going much further back. Swans haven't scored more than 100 in the last 5 games (2-3 win loss ratio) and they were a bit lucky to scrape past North Melbourne due to the number of interchanges fiasco. In the same way, Lions haven't looked convincing both against Adelaide and Hawks scoring only 73 and 78.
Head to Head:
A quick glance through the last 10 games show Swans are comfortable playing us both at Gabba and SCG. I'll give ourselves a mulligan for R1 2021 as we are usually in zombie mode for first game of the season. Starting from 2019 when we commenced our climb up the ladder, we have a 3-1 record against them.
Opposition Analysis:
Below is the Sydney line up that played against St.Kilda on thursday. They are still a bit light-on for Key Position but Robbie Fox provides a reasonable contest against big forwards and plays in a style which is very similar to Dan Rampe. Melican has been in the bench but he'll get swapped for Tom McCartin whenever he's ready to go.
The firestarters are usually Blakey and Florent from defense. We really need a plan to shutdown Blakey or else he'll setup play and burn us on rebound. Same with Florent, I have seen Florent's disposal being iffy at times so there are chances of intercepts/turnovers but Blakey is their playmaker. Lloyd used to do this in the past but in terms of overlap run and covering ground, Blakey will be their go-to man.
I expect Ryan Clarke to line up on Neale and tag him through the game. The onus will be on rest of our midfield to step up and balance out their output. Clarke is a decent tagger and I expect Neale to have his hands full. In the midfield Luke Parker should return from suspension and take over from Angus Sheldrick. They have Warner and Gulden who cut us up in Round 1 2021 so midfield battle and spread from contest will be an interesting side story.
Our Team:
Plenty has been said in the review and coaching threads so I'll leave this with a prayer for changes in team, bit more speed through the backline and wings. We need some help covering the spread from contest and it needs to be practiced across every game. We also need to put our foot down and score big rather than take it easy once we get to a 3 goal margin, it is happening again and again where opposition is left with enough belief to mount a fightback.
Verdict:
While our away form isn't great, we usually go well at Gabba and I'm expecting a good win this week. Since the Collingwood game in Round 4 where Charlie kicked 6, he hasn't kicked more than 2 goals at Gabba games. Expecting a big one from him this friday. Lions by 5+ goals.
