Hot Topic Carlton 2024 Trade Discussion

[BlueTongue]

I don't think its about us being keen or not.

You only nominate another team if you know they can get the deal done. If we say pick 11 is a no go, then we'll either need to buckle on that or be very confident we can get 12 off GC for him to nom us. Plus how Port goes with other targets will also impact their willingness to let him go so might want to see how that plays out.

Suspect that's what holding up the nom.

I suspect that IF we are trying to secure Houston, it will rely heavily on us not only getting pick 12 from GC, but also offloading one or more of Kennedy, Owies & Young. I reckon Houston will eat a fair bit of Salary cap (certainly more than any for the fore-mentioned 3) in addition to Pick 13.

 

[Benaly28]

Cumming to the tingles and Perryman to the filth will only complicate any Houston deal

Why?


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[Stiffler's Dad]

View attachment 2122311

I can't believe it!

 

[The Bighouse]

Why?


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Both replacements for Houston, though Perryman is apparently being offered midfield minutes elsewhere.

Would certainly help the cause for an easier exit for DH.

 

[chuncey]

Could posters who suggest we add (as an example ) Houston, Wicks, Stone, Kostany, SDK, Petracca, Butters, SDK, and add Boyd, Campos, Berry, Hotton, Farrell etc to the list please add some explanation where the list spots and salary cap are coming from.

 

[The Bighouse]

Could posters who suggest we add (as an example ) Houston, Wicks, Stone, Kostany, SDK, Petracca, Butters, SDK, and add Boyd, Campos, Berry, Hotton, Farrell etc to the list please add some explanation where the list spots and salary cap are coming from.

Owies
J. Carroll
MK
Young
M.Carroll
S.Durdin

• then anyone else that may pop up in conversations and is amiable to a move.

 

[katmanblue]

Could posters who suggest we add (as an example ) Houston, Wicks, Stone, Kostany, SDK, Petracca, Butters, SDK, and add Boyd, Campos, Berry, Hotton, Farrell etc to the list please add some explanation where the list spots and salary cap are coming from.

The list is like this.

View attachment 2122866

 

[DangerousD]

Could posters who suggest we add (as an example ) Houston, Wicks, Stone, Kostany, SDK, Petracca, Butters, SDK, and add Boyd, Campos, Berry, Hotton, Farrell etc to the list please add some explanation where the list spots and salary cap are coming from.

Well where not getting all of them for a start.

 

[DangerousD]

Why?


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They will be under less financial pressure to do so, they can already get Luko with their own F1 as well. I was hoping that Cumming chose them, hopefully they up their bid for Perryman, not sure why players would choose Collingwood with the demographic of their list.

 

[Wickzki]

not sure why players would choose Collingwood with the demographic of their list.

Until they prove their window is firmly closed they'll keep adding talent and going again like Geelong have done.

Their record of playing deep into finals for the past 22 years speaks for itself.

They've done it consistently with multiple lists and have a generational 21-year-old who will draw players to their club.

Moore, De Goey, Maynard, Schultz, Lipinski, J Daicos all have 5-ish years left.

Richards (if they keep him), Quaynor, Hill, McCreery, Dean, McInnes, Macrae, Daicos all have longer than that at a high level of football.

By getting Perryman he slots into the first group (5-ish years left):

Yes, they have a handful of important players at the end of their career or who will be over the next few years but if they can replace 1-2 of them a year (and with their salary decreasing as they age out) they'll replace them as they depart.

Let's say the last year of their older players is as such:

2025 - Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe
2026 - Steele Sidebottom, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott
2027 - Brody Mihocek, Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott
2028 - Jack Crisp, Dan McStay and so on.


What they'll be able to do (unless serious injury calls for an end to a player's career) is to space out these retirements. If they position themselves to add one or two free agents a year they'll keep on top of their list management.

Then you need to consider their success rate at their "Moneyball" type targets particularly in the post-2022 window -- Bobby Hill, Markov, Frampton, Lipinski -- as their list management has a fantastic relationship with McRae (they have an established type to fit his game plan and get it done) and the holes that they have in their list are generally able to be covered.

Thankfully they haven't had a great hit rate in the draft otherwise with their being "Collingwood" and being able to lure free agents and trade acquisitions they'd be even stronger.

But to think Collingwood is about to go **** up because of their age profile is underselling them quite heavily.

Nevermind me, that noise you hear is me throwing up after typing out a positive post about them on this forum.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

We're getting Charlie Cameron, straight swap for Owies!

Only if he chooses a different song.

 

[Worm4]

Only if he chooses a different song.

Sound of silence would be appropriate

 

[GoBlues!]

For a whole host of reasons, Perryman nominating Port has now become critical in our ability to bring in Houston.

I'm tipping the moment Perryman chooses Port, you will see a Carlton nomination by the Houston camp.

Yep, we need someone to pay the Perryman to get us to the other side…

 

[BigFrizz36]

Latest Petracca update.

Vossy on the Front Bar last night. They showed the infamous scrambled eggs cooking segment from his youth.

Vossy said that Petracca was going to join the blues till he saw that and has now decided not to.

 

[Bletch]

Let's say the last year of their older players is as such:

2025 - Scott Pendlebury (37), Jeremy Howe (35)
2026 - Steele Sidebottom (35), Mason Cox (35), Jamie Elliott (34)
2027 - Brody Mihocek (34), Tom Mitchell (34), Will Hoskin-Elliott (34)
2028 - Jack Crisp (35), Dan McStay (33) and so on.

Current ages (with retirement ages added above):
Mr Basketball 36
Howe 34
Sidearse, Cox 33
Elliott 32
Mitchell, Mihocek, H-E, Crisp 31 (next week for Crisp)
McStay, Cameron 29

Agree with your general premise, that they'll try to space out retirements like this. But it's a hell of a lot of aging players to manage. To get that many through to the ages listed will be a remarkable achievement if they can manage it. I'm really surprised we haven't seen a couple of this group go this year. Think there will be a larger group go next year as a result.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Don’t mind the below and hit the draft hard this year…

IN	OUT
Pick 18 - Bris	Pick 33 & Owies Rates Owies Pick 41
Pick 33 - Coll	Kennedy
Pick 59 - WCE	Carroll
Pick 40 - NTH	Pick 59 & Young Rates Young Pick 51
Pick 12 - GC	F1 (18) & 31 & F3 (54) Extra 543 points (Pick 34)

Pick 11
Pick 12
Pick 18
Pick 40 & 62 & 65 (Equivalent Bid at 24)
Boyd
Haynes

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Brisbane won't give away 18 like that, they need points for Ashcroft and Marshall more than Owies

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Don’t mind the below and hit the draft hard this year…

IN	OUT
Pick 18 - Bris	Pick 33 & Owies Rates Owies Pick 41
Pick 33 - Coll	Kennedy
Pick 59 - WCE	Carroll
Pick 40 - NTH	Pick 59 & Young Rates Young Pick 51
Pick 12 - GC	F1 (18) & 31 & F3 (54) Extra 543 points (Pick 34)

Pick 11
Pick 12
Pick 18
Pick 40 & 62 & 65 (Equivalent Bid at 24)
Boyd
Haynes

Can't trade out F1 and F3 without getting another F3 back somewhere.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Is that for all picks? I always thought it was just for F1 and F2

Unless it has changed recently, you can trade F1 but no other picks or you can keep F1, but trade any or all of the rest.

 

[carlton_99]

Unless it has changed recently, you can trade F1 but no other picks or you can keep F1, but trade any or all of the rest.

Yeh I deleted my post because I remembered the rule. You are correct.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Can't trade out F1 and F3 without getting another F3 back somewhere.

We don't need to throw our F3 in that deal... F1 + 31 should be fair enough for 12 imo.

Worse comes to worst, we can go into deficit next year when it comes to matching a bid for Ben.

I like the creativity of the idea, I'm really behind hitting the draft hard this year. Really hoping we don't go after Houston.

 

[Jimmae]

Hope we're looking at Xavier O'Halloran. He'd give us some zip and defensive pressure around the ball. Can also play wing and HF.

Enjoyed seeing that Conor Stone is undecided about staying at the Giants. Make it happen Austin

So your plans to replace Cuningham and Kennedy in the forward/mid pool, is to get another version of them? Granted, O'Halloran has stayed on the park more since a shaky start to his career, but he's lost a step since his junior days because he runs around at 90 kgs.

If we feel we can get him lighter on his feet again and he comes very cheap in terms of draft currency, I'm listening.

Stone just reminds of a fitter version of Kennedy, at least in the sense of being able to hit the ball flatter with more power than Kennedy has for some time. I just don't see how he fits forward or in midfield, so he'd be a backup, but perhaps slightly up the pecking order than at GWS.

Konstanty is another who far too readily resembles Kennedy's output as a forward. We want to move beyond that and add dimensions to our game and be more mobile, not repeat the dose.

For the life of me, I have no understanding of why we aren’t chasing Peatling. He’s dynamic, quick, agile and kicks goals.

This is who we should be chasing, but his asking price may be a little higher than we like. You'd want to think carefully about going past around pick 25 in terms of value.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Brisbane won't give away 18 like that, they need points for Ashcroft and Marshall more than Owies

In that scenario, that pick 40 we get from North... send that to Brisbane as well.

Pick 18 will get pushed back about 4 spots. Pick 22 is worth 845. If 33 is pushed back to 37, that's 483 and 40 -> 44, that's another 362, give them another late pick too... go into deficit next year, we'll get Cody the year after.

 

[Coona Blues]

Don’t mind the below and hit the draft hard this year…

IN	OUT
Pick 18 - Bris	Pick 33 & Owies Rates Owies Pick 41
Pick 33 - Coll	Kennedy
Pick 59 - WCE	Carroll
Pick 40 - NTH	Pick 59 & Young Rates Young Pick 51
Pick 12 - GC	F1 (18) & 31 & F3 (54) Extra 543 points (Pick 34)

Pick 11
Pick 12
Pick 18
Pick 40 & 62 & 65 (Equivalent Bid at 24)
Boyd
Haynes

Brisbane need points to match both Ashcroft and Marshall. One definite too 5 and the other likely first round bid.
There is no way they.are trading pick 18 or whatever it ends up for pick 31 and what will be a fringe player. Then they will have another top five pick in Daniel Annable next year, under new Academy/FatherSon arrangements next year. If we let Owies go to Brisbane, we will get SFA for him

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]