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- Apr 24, 2022
- 3,059
- 8,171
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium
7:50PM 5 May 2023
Marvel Stadium
7:50PM 5 May 2023
The competition know Carlton are coming. Having narrowly missed finals in 2022, it seems you could not turn anywhere for preseason news over summer without being informed about Carlton’s credentials to push for finals, a top 4 berth and a tilt at a premiership. With a list that if you listen to their supporter base is the envy of the competition, Carlton will be a strong challenge to any team this season. Although the year has somewhat failed to live up to expectation so far, a commanding victory over a West Coast side struggling to field 22 AFL grade players each week has buoyed supporter optimism once again. Where does this Carlton side truly figure in the grand scheme of the competition? Hopefully this will be answered when Michael Voss confronts his former team.
Unlike Carlton, Brisbane have become somewhat of a known commodity in the competition across the last few years. Featuring regularly in the upper echelons of the ladder, a perennial finalist with no silverware to show for it has been Brisbane’s fortunes of recent times. Looking to take the next step and secure an elusive premiership, acquiring the services of Dunkley, Gunston, McKenna and Ashcroft means Brisbane are primed for success. A consistent knock against this Brisbane side has been their capacity to win on the road. No better chance to dispel these rumours than beating finals contenders on the road. A great chance awaits this week.
Two teams coming off solid wins against the struggling Western Australian sides square up for what should be a terrific primetime game.
Recent History
Carlton have not defeated Brisbane since 2019, with Brisbane having ascendancy in the match up as of late. Despite heroics from individual Carlton players such as Harry McKay and Patrick Cripps, Brisbane’s solid roster has generally been able to account for Carlton. Carlton has been a team Brisbane has generally not had a problem scoring against, with Brisbane’s point of difference forward line generally being too much for Carlton’s average defence to hold at bay.
The less that is said about the last encounter between these two teams the better, but a couple of ‘sliding doors’ moments there. Cal Ah Chee copping a heavy concussion, Neale deprived of a second Brownlow in the aftermath and Marcus Adams sustaining what is looking like a career ending concussion put a black spot on what was a classic patchy late season 2022 Brisbane win.
Fingers crossed nothing of the sort happens this time.
Teams
Carlton
With the core of their list relatively healthy, Carlton should only have one sure change this week with Jesse Motlop returning from suspension. Expect the under performing Josh Honey to make way for him. More interesting will be how coach Michael Voss handles his inside mid balance. Matthew Kennedy was relegated to the sub role against West Coast, with the midfield balance arguably looking much better with one less slow big-bodied midfielder to accommodate in the rotations. Think they will persist with this setup and see how it works going forward. Tom De Koning just does not do enough to play alongside Marc Pittonett and is unlikely to be recalled.
IN: Motlop
OUT: Honey
Brisbane
At least two forced changes for Brisbane with veterans Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko both suffering from soft tissue injuries late against Fremantle. Their elite foot skills and ample experience will undoubtedly be missed on the quick Docklands deck, but Brisbane find themselves in the envious position of having terrific depth and multiple players knocking the door down in the reserves. Jaxon Prior had a great game in his one start so far at AFL level and would be my choice to replace Rich. Replacing what Zorko brings to the team is a lot more challenging. Deven Robertson has been playing well in the VFL, and should get another chance to prove to himself he has a future at Brisbane.
Bringing Darragh Joyce back in for Ryan Lester should also be considered. Carlton’s two key pillars are crucial to their success, and as much as Lester has been a great servant for Brisbane, Joyce simply has much better physical attributes capable of matching up on either Harry McKay or Charlie Curnow
IN: Joyce, Prior, Robertson
OUT: Rich, Zorko, Lester
It is a Big Game for.....
Charlie Curnow
Who else for Carlton? You would struggle to find any team who has their fortunes so inextricably linked to one player more than Carlton and Charlie Curnow. Not overly tall, but incredibly athletic and powerful, Curnow is the prototype modern forward and can put teams to the sword single handedly. When Curnow is kicking bags, Carlton are usually winning, going at 5.5 goals in wins and only 2.5 goals in losses. When he is struggling for impact, the avenues to goal are incredibly slim with McKay playing up field more this season and the Carlton small brigade struggling for impact. Adelaide and St Kilda showed the blueprint for halting Curnow’s influence. Strong midfield pressure forces Carlton to accumulate wasteful disposals in their back half, preventing Curnow from being able to manufacture genuine one-on-one contests through quick transition. It will be a team effort to contain Curnow, but whichever of Brisbane’s key defenders get given the unenviable task should receive plenty of support from their teammates. Restricting his impact will go a long way to Brisbane winning. Just be sure to not do anything at all that can be even slightly read as a free kick, because this guy seems to be a magnet for them!
Zac Bailey
Having a rather quiet start to the season by his standards, Zac Bailey is slowly finding his groove after playing a very impressive game against Fremantle. Many fans believe the best is yet to come from Brisbane’s livewire, and his performance against Carlton last year showed a glimpse of what is hoped Bailey can become. A very dangerous forward who can also be damaging streaming away from a centre bounce clearance, hybrid mid-forwards can be a major point of difference for teams. Carlton’s small defenders do not have a great match-up for Bailey, and if playing more around goals should have plenty of chances. More interesting is whether Bailey will assume any of the minutes Dayne Zorko’s absence opens up in the midfield. Carlton’s midfield being composed largely of slower big bodies might struggle to contain Bailey’s pace, and although lacking the defensive edge of Zorko could more than make up with that through impact forward of centre. Bailey at his best is an absolute matchwinner, and with a massive Friday night game the stage is set for some brilliance.
Other Musings
Patrick Cripps did not exactly cover himself in glory last time these two sides met. Should cop a fair bit of booing from the minority Brisbane crowd in Melbourne. Not underserved either, despite his bromance with Lachie Neale. It is hard to restrict Cripps influence on a game with his sheer size but given his tendency so far this year to just handball out of stoppage, restricting Carlton’s options outside the contest should be an effective way to prevent Cripps from having a strong impact. Playing some more big bodies such as Berry in the inside mid mix might also be considered.
Although touched on above, it is worth repeating just how reliant Carlton are on Curnow and Mckay to kick a winning score, targeting the twin spearheads with the overwhelming majority of their forward entries. Brisbane have taken a different approach, with a much more even spread for their forward 50 entries showing with a corresponding more equal distribution of goals. Key to this has been the form of Joe Daniher, who has taken on a roaming centre-half forward role. Moving up the ground to take contested marks, setting up scores with some beautiful long-range field kicking and impacting the scoreboard himself, Daniher is playing close to career best footy. Brisbane’s forward line is humming along, and it is not a question of if the forwards will hurt you, it is a matter of who.
It is game 150 for an ex-Lion in Sam Docherty. It seems forever ago that the go home five happened and some were questioning if Brisbane could ever be relevant again. Although many of those players who left in that period drew the ire of supporters, nothing but respect for Docherty for going through all that he has and managing to notch this impressive milestone.
Prediction
Carlton beating up on a WAFL side proves to be a false dawn as a red-hot Brisbane bolster their premiership credentials by dismantling a finals fancy on their home deck
Brisbane by 24
