Cash Cow Peaks

[Tim__]

Thought it would be a good idea to open a thread discussing when people believe a cash cow has/is going to reach their peak price.

To get it started, I believe that Stephan Hill has reached his peak value at $ 367,400 and after a pretty good few weeks I believe he will return to his average scoring of around 40 - 50, thus dropping in value.

I think that he should be sold this week as I believe this is going to be his highest price.

Also, I think next week that it may be time to move Taylor Walker on. His score of 124 is certainly a flash in the pan.

 

[razor1]

Otten is looking mighty fine for a culling.

I hate to say this but so is Petrenko.....what a spud. Same goes for Walker after this week. Once his 124 is out of the price change calculations he will likely start losing money.

 

[Hot Tiges]

Mitch Brown is close along with Ziebell, but I think jumping Jack is more consistent.Hill, subject to team changes will be leaving my side this week.

 

[m8rix]

For me:
Hill out this week
Walker out next week unless he scores over 75 this round
Ziebell will be looking at next week or following week depending on scores
Otten/Rich keep a close eye on over next 3-4 weeks (if they maintain avereges they won't peek until RD18)

My next wave of cash cows won't peak for some time.

 

[alternatevista]

I think Ziebell should be right for more than a few weeks. He seems to be able to score fairly consistently, and seems to be improving, so he shouldn't go losing value like a Petrenko or Walker.

 

[mattyb05]

Is mitch brown or taylor walker more liklely to retain there spot for the remainder of the year?

 

[razor1]

Is mitch brown or taylor walker more liklely to retain there spot for the remainder of the year?

I have no doubt that both will play every game barring injury. Adelaide is desperate for a forward and there appears to be a lot of good word surrounding Walker's potential. WC is pushing youth and are desperate to find a key back for the future and M Brown has found his spot nicely there and has done a couple of great jobs on key forwards.

M Brown is the better scorer out of the two but does have a bit of a dodgy knee. I chose to keep Walker on my bench as a playing emergency for the rest of the season. He is a spud but will cover for zeros.

 

[Parasite]

http://tooserious.net/?page=main&sort=break_even&desc=desc

Find your player, if their break even is red, they are dropping like a drop bear.

 

[ocat1979]

Hurn at $403K has just about peaked. I picked him up as a hopefull keeper but hes been so frustrating this year. He has 8 tackles for the year, 8!! Gary Lyon was right when he called him a defensive seagull

 

[cooolas8]

hill suban pentreko rich ziebell nahas walker but half are on the bench. i hope to trade most to upgrade others

 

[Glenno23]

You reckon Nahas has hit his peak?

With a B/E of 2?

Me thinks not. Am spewing i missed this bloke!

 

[ed don]

We can definitely add Taylor Walker to the list this week.

Jack Ziebell has me wondering this week, though. Some seem to have started thinking of him as a possible keeper considering all these injuries but I'm not so sure.

His ceiling is estimated to be $335,600. So he's pretty much there. Break-even of 76, and seems to be having a mid-season slowdown due to his very young body and perhaps some kind of mystery leg injury. Considering how impressive he has been this season it's hard to remember at times that he was on the younger end of the draft last year.

If I cash him in this week along with Walker I can get O'Keefe, so does anyone disagree and think Jack has further to go this year?

 

[Salisbury]

Hill peaked two weeks ago.

Dawson I thought he had peaked but still a little bit of juice left.

Pentrenko - peaked but didn't really make a lot

 

[alternatevista]

Jack Ziebell has me wondering this week, though. Some seem to have started thinking of him as a possible keeper considering all these injuries but I'm not so sure.

His ceiling is estimated to be $335,600. So he's pretty much there. Break-even of 76, and seems to be having a mid-season slowdown due to his very young body and perhaps some kind of mystery leg injury. Considering how impressive he has been this season it's hard to remember at times that he was on the younger end of the draft last year.

If I cash him in this week along with Walker I can get O'Keefe, so does anyone disagree and think Jack has further to go this year?

Bit hard to tell with him at the moment, he will either pickup where he left back and go back to averaging 80-odd or will play a few games with a niggling injury then get dropped. If I had the trades I would get rid of him but at the moment my first priority is upgrading Walker.

 

[CaptainChardonnay]

Think I'm going to keep both Ziebell and Hill. They are going to be my "mediocre" fwd & back. Got them both at their base and IMO, they still have a bit more upside in them and they are reliable contributors with the occassional ability to get you >100 scores. A bit up and down yes, but now that trades are becoming an issue, I'll be hanging on to them. Inclined to do the same with Hurn. Even if they end up as bench players the outlay is still low enough to keep them.

Instead, I'll be using either Coughlan, Rich or Hartlett in the midfield and McGlynn & Higgins in the fwd line as "Cash Cows". All picked up at their starting price, all going up well. Higgins is a forced one but him for Buddy with a change over price of about $60k is a bargain in anyone's books.

In the not too distant future it will be Rich for Ablett, Mcglynn for Davis/ROK/Davey/Johnson.

 

[Bloods]

Walker this week.

Will keep M.Brown or Nahas as my forward emergency for the year.

Otten (going to be tough to get rid of him as he's been excellent) and Dawson at some stage over the next few weeks to free-up some cash.

 

[Bobber]

So I really want to get rid of M Brown, but having a look there is a real lack of options to downgrade to, Hurley is out for awhile so what is everyone's opinion on who to bring in to free up some cash? Or is he worth holding on to for the rest of the year considering the total lack of other cheaper options?

 

[Hot Tiges]

Bobber - Hayden Ballantyne has some big wraps on him at Freo, he could be an option later on??

For me, Walker is done and dusted and will be offloaded probably for Sammy Wright, Ziebell will probably stay on my side for the rest of the year. As well as Rich depending how my side is shaping up.M Brown is at least a decent emergency who is consistent.Beams is likely a downgrade option for me as well. Can't seem to get a game nowadays.

 

[CaptainChardonnay]

There will be MORE cash cows coming in after rd 12 so don't burn all your trades just yet.

Once teams like Freo, Kangas, Port, West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne & Carlton D) figure out they ain't in the hunt, they'll start trialling their younger players for 2010.

 

[m8rix]

I predict Walker will score 39 and drop 20k this week.

His average is 48, but he has scored in the 30s 5 out of 9 games (plus a 41 in rd2), if you take out his one good game (124) his average is only 39. His BE is 86

If you can upgrade him this week you will be saving yourself 20k plus whatever your upgrade target rises this week.

Sam Wright is the only good value downgrade this week, but no guarantee he will play heaps of games being from Nth Melbourne. Too risky for me, I will be looking for an upgrade option.