Charts/TA

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Bitcoin last tested its Bull Market Support Band (20W SMA, 21W EMA) in late September, bouncing sharply to new ATHs the 2nd time it dipped there in a week. Right now, this support band is sitting between 50-52k. The reason price tends to bounce off here (if we are bullish) is because people have buy orders setup at these levels (especially the whales). I don't think this dip will even touch the support band, but it's interesting to note and provides you with an idea of where it will likely bottom if it happened to dip further.
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BACCS said:
What traders? The most bearish price I’ve heard is about 47-48k. There is absolutely no way 69k was the top. Breaking down to 37k would completely break bull market structure and signal a bear market.
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A friend who called the previous top has that idea. One of the better traders from chart champions is also running with it.

We hit 29k and pumped to a new ATH. There are no absolute rules.
 
Evolved1 said:
A friend who called the previous top has that idea. One of the better traders from chart champions is also running with it.

We hit 29k and pumped to a new ATH. There are no absolute rules.
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Fair enough. Gareth Soloway is one of the more bearish traders I follow and even he is seeing a floor in the high 40s/early 50s. The difference with May is that BTC is being accumulated above 50k for the last couple of months, with strong support at 53-56k. There would need to be a very significant news event to trigger any major sell off.
 
Some BTC TA for your Monday (as this is all that matters atm). The blue line is the 50 week SMA; when BTC historically breaks this line (IF still in a bull market), it can range sideways for a few weeks (one month back in June). However, the 2nd test in mid July is when it properly bounced and eventually made it to new ATHs in October. Unless things go parabolic, then this will likely be a slow recovery (again, IF still in a bull market).

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Some ETH TA for your Tuesday, based on a copy of Ben Cowen's risk metric indicator (it's called cowen risk index on TradingView). This is basically showing that risk wise, the markets haven't gone close to the risk appetite levels reached before the May crash (Risk On period). It is looking a lot more like an accumulation period since May, with a couple of small peaks in risk appetite that have correlated with recent ATHs. You can also see the peak for the last cycle pretty clearly in mid 2017, with a sharp dip down, sideways accumulation for 6 months and then one more peak to end the bull run.

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BTC is not too dissimilar, but its risk appetite peak was reached in mid February 2021. Even though price did trend slightly higher for the next couple of months, this was within 10% of that top. It also never got two peaks in risk appetite during the last cycle like ETH did.

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The risk appetite levels for BTC and ETH have also reached the bottoms for this cycle that were only seen in mid 2020 (just before the major run up) and July 2021. It's also no coincidence that these risk appetite bottoms for this recent bull cycle have started to reverse once BTC starts to hover around its 50W SMA and EMA prices. Based on history, there is definitely scope for one more peak in the risk appetite this cycle to the levels seen earlier this year, but I expect this to also be the end of the bull cycle (the only alternative is that the bear market is already here). Interesting to see how this plays out and short term I still expect chop.
 

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BACCS said:
Some ETH TA for your Tuesday, based on a copy of Ben Cowen's risk metric indicator (it's called cowen risk index on TradingView). This is basically showing that risk wise, the markets haven't gone close to the risk appetite levels reached before the May crash (Risk On period). It is looking a lot more like an accumulation period since May, with a couple of small peaks in risk appetite that have correlated with recent ATHs. You can also see the peak for the last cycle pretty clearly in mid 2017, with a sharp dip down, sideways accumulation for 6 months and then one more peak to end the bull run.

View attachment 1297232

BTC is not too dissimilar, but its risk appetite peak was reached in mid February 2021. Even though price did trend slightly higher for the next couple of months, this was within 10% of that top. It also never got two peaks in risk appetite during the last cycle like ETH did.

View attachment 1297228

The risk appetite levels for BTC and ETH have also reached the bottoms for this cycle that were only seen in mid 2020 (just before the major run up) and July 2021. It's also no coincidence that these risk appetite bottoms for this recent bull cycle have started to reverse once BTC starts to hover around its 50W SMA and EMA prices. Based on history, there is definitely scope for one more peak in the risk appetite this cycle to the levels seen earlier this year, but I expect this to also be the end of the bull cycle (the only alternative is that the bear market is already here). Interesting to see how this plays out and short term I still expect chop.
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What is the risk index measuring?
 
Evolved1 said:
What would you accept as compelling evidence to the contrary?
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TA is used to help identify trends and help predict what might happen, but there are also ways to confirm the trends e.g. the major spike in risk appetite for ETH back in May happened the day before 10 year US bonds then had its largest daily spike. It wouldn't have helped you sell the absolute top, but it was damn close.
 
Evolved1 said:
What would you accept as compelling evidence to the contrary?
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peer-reviewed research

BACCS said:
TA is used to help identify trends and help predict what might happen, but there are also ways to confirm the trends e.g. the major spike in risk appetite for ETH back in May happened the day before 10 year US bonds then had its largest daily spike. It wouldn't have helped you sell the absolute top, but it was damn close.
Click to expand...
TA is great at predicting things after they happen
 
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