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Greetings all,
As some of you know, I used to post on here but have since started my own full time NBA Punting business online. However I actually am getting withdrawal symptoms so I thought I would get on the old NBA board and put up a quick analysis for one of today's games I am riding.
Chicago @ Houston - 12pm AEST
The Rockets have been hot just prior to the All Star break. Many of the wiser heads assumed the weekend off would chew up the momentum that the Rockets had but they have continued on their merry way. Yes TMac and Yao are teaming well but a closer look reveals greater bench production. Alston is out of his early season funk and Wells is starting to play angry. This additional output is surprising opposition "second units" and as a result is making Houston an ATS cover machine over the last 3 weeks.
So tonight I roll with Chicago!! Why? Very simple. The ATS stats are not leaning either way here so its next to impossible to draw derivatives from ATS stats. What is interesting is the matchups at the point. While this Chicago team has been a rabble in the early part of 08 thanks to Fluffy Skiles, they are adjusting to the new up tempo game of their stand in and are taking chances. Their guards match up well on Houston and Tyrus likes a bit of skin on skin and is too young and dumb to realise he is playing someone who is 7 inches taller than he is. That means he will go at Yao with energy - not a bad thing IMO.
This is the perfect game for the educated punters on NBA to take on the dog. Vegas doesn't like Chicago - their value is getting pasted. I liken it to investors in a volatile stock market. Lose confidence in a stocks viability and everyone jumps off. Houston are currently the darlings of the NBA and the fact they are an ATS lock has Vegas giving them ridiculous numbers. Here is where the value comes in. Because of the publics loss of confidence on Chicago and the pathetic love they are showing for Houston take Chicago on the line. I got them on +13 and bought 3 points as insurance but you may be looking at the line dropping to around 12 points just prior to game time. The fact that over 70% of the public's money is on Houston is yet another sign that bookies are rubbing their hands together in preparation to say "Pay Me B***ch" to all the useless Houston bandwagonners trying to make a quick buck.
Chicago +13 points
$850 bet to win $600
Best of luck all.
As some of you know, I used to post on here but have since started my own full time NBA Punting business online. However I actually am getting withdrawal symptoms so I thought I would get on the old NBA board and put up a quick analysis for one of today's games I am riding.
Chicago @ Houston - 12pm AEST
The Rockets have been hot just prior to the All Star break. Many of the wiser heads assumed the weekend off would chew up the momentum that the Rockets had but they have continued on their merry way. Yes TMac and Yao are teaming well but a closer look reveals greater bench production. Alston is out of his early season funk and Wells is starting to play angry. This additional output is surprising opposition "second units" and as a result is making Houston an ATS cover machine over the last 3 weeks.
So tonight I roll with Chicago!! Why? Very simple. The ATS stats are not leaning either way here so its next to impossible to draw derivatives from ATS stats. What is interesting is the matchups at the point. While this Chicago team has been a rabble in the early part of 08 thanks to Fluffy Skiles, they are adjusting to the new up tempo game of their stand in and are taking chances. Their guards match up well on Houston and Tyrus likes a bit of skin on skin and is too young and dumb to realise he is playing someone who is 7 inches taller than he is. That means he will go at Yao with energy - not a bad thing IMO.
This is the perfect game for the educated punters on NBA to take on the dog. Vegas doesn't like Chicago - their value is getting pasted. I liken it to investors in a volatile stock market. Lose confidence in a stocks viability and everyone jumps off. Houston are currently the darlings of the NBA and the fact they are an ATS lock has Vegas giving them ridiculous numbers. Here is where the value comes in. Because of the publics loss of confidence on Chicago and the pathetic love they are showing for Houston take Chicago on the line. I got them on +13 and bought 3 points as insurance but you may be looking at the line dropping to around 12 points just prior to game time. The fact that over 70% of the public's money is on Houston is yet another sign that bookies are rubbing their hands together in preparation to say "Pay Me B***ch" to all the useless Houston bandwagonners trying to make a quick buck.
Chicago +13 points
$850 bet to win $600
Best of luck all.
pf, thats what you get for betting against houston