Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

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BangyBangy said:
Just to clarify, what I meant was do you think the government will wait to see if the lockdown measures imposed to date will suffice for the time being (knowing that there is a 14 day or so incubation period), or we will see a stepped up lockdown over the next fortnight regardless?

Agree with briztoon , get used to the current measures for the next six months at least, that bit ain't changing.
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I think they'll keep playing catch up. Every couple days when the latest bit of bad news comes through they tighten it up. There's no way that stops while we're only half way to complete lock down.
 
dlanod said:
I think they'll keep playing catch up. Every couple days when the latest bit of bad news comes through they tighten it up. There's no way that stops while we're only half way to complete lock down.
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You think we’re half way?

I think we’re only a quarter way, but we’ll probably miss a step or two between now and full lockdown.
 
briztoon said:
You think we’re half way?

I think we’re only a quarter way, but we’ll probably miss a step or two between now and full lockdown.
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Metaphorically speaking rather than a mathematical evaluation of a continuum.

However practically I only see three more steps:
  1. Schools
  2. Workplaces
  3. Everything
 

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I am a little more hopeful than I was a week ago for Australia.

Yes it's going to come and yes, it'll be bad. And... yes, we need to all take it seriously.

However - our transmission rate is low, mortality rate is low and we only have 10 cases in ICU. Experts now think we can keep mortality rate below 1%.

Our general uptake sits between the good countries and the bad with social distancing measures yet to take effect on the curve.

I saw the head of ICU at Melbourne hospital on ABC say he was confident that they could manage the influx looking at numbers and projections.

Italy having a decrease in their deaths overnight should indicate they had hit the top of their arc and should now decline. That along with China says to me it won't be months, it Will be weeks.

We are up againts the biggest challenge since WW2 but I think we are positioned to navigate it ok, so long as we socially isolate properly.
 
lioninthesand said:
I am a little more hopeful than I was a week ago for Australia.

Yes it's going to come and yes, it'll be bad. And... yes, we need to all take it seriously.

However - our transmission rate is low, mortality rate is low and we only have 10 cases in ICU. Experts now think we can keep mortality rate below 1%.

Our general uptake sits between the good countries and the bad with social distancing measures yet to take effect on the curve.

I saw the head of ICU at Melbourne hospital on ABC say he was confident that they could manage the influx looking at numbers and projections.

Italy having a decrease in their deaths overnight should indicate they had hit the top of their arc and should now decline. That along with China says to me it won't be months, it Will be weeks.

We are up againts the biggest challenge since WW2 but I think we are positioned to navigate it ok, so long as we socially isolate properly.
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I wouldn’t look at one day in Italy, and say they’re over the hump.

China introduced very strict isolation and quarantine measures to total lockdown of Hubei in a period of 3 days, that lasted for 8 weeks.

They introduced those measures when they had reported 530 cases.

You can’t compare either country to us, as we’re not following either countries timetable and measures.

Our reported transmission rates aren’t accurately reported because we’re not testing for them. This has been documented and discussed so often on the abc.

We’re now seeing community transmission where they can’t trace the contact. This will increase now they’re expanding the testing.

As yet, we haven’t seen much community transmission in to the vulnerable sections of our society. This will increase as the virus spreads.

Our efforts are still focused on flattening the curve, not stopping the virus. We’ve missed our chance at stopping the virus.

As long as we focus on flattening the curve, it will be a long, drawn out process.

As long as the virus exists outside or national borders, we’ll have to keep our borders tightly controlled. This will greatly impact our tourism industry and our tertiary education sector and our economy until there is a large supply of a vaccine.

We may slow the virus down to negligible numbers within the 6 month time frame the government has discussed.

It will take our society much longer to recover.

We might see football start back up by August or September, but it’ll be an abridged version, and there will a a flow in effect to season 2021.

And I dare say our league and clubs might look very different after this.
 
Some good news for medical people.

Government asked for companies that do produce and or could produce ppe, thermometers, sanitizers and other required medical equipment and 130 companies put their names forward.

A small feel good moment which we really need atm
 

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The key determinant on how bad this will get is totally correlated to how quick we can get a cure/vaccine to the masses. If it’s 18 months we are in a world of pain.
 
Ironmonger said:
In 2007 if you'd told I would miss John Howard, I wouldn't have believed you.

But right now...
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No mate you haven’t thought it through properly

There was “John Howard “ in there somewhere ..I do understand you had previous reservations..
 
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Lions Flag 2020 said:
The key determinant on how bad this will get is totally correlated to how quick we can get a cure/vaccine to the masses. If it’s 18 months we are in a world of pain.
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I reckon it might be 18 months before anyone can try and access the early payout super what the Government advised as well. Unfortunately my wife lost her position at this time in the kindergarten industry and we phoned her super mob up and they advised that the early payout super ( max 10,000 ) had not been officially approved yet. Then you get told to go onto your MY GOV account to do it through the taxation dept and nothing has been updated re early payment for super re coronavirus here either.
 
Lace Out said:
Haven’t been following tooo closely,obviously concerned at all the damage.

Italy horrific...why of the hundreds countries in the world are Australia predicted to get to that level of horrible ?
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Italy is currently the most extreme case scenario that is commonly known (Iran might be worse but they won't tell anyone), therefore everyone is comparing every country to Italy.

It's like AFL footballers - no one comments that a player might be the next Richard Hadley or Shane O'Bree, they go for the more extreme options.
 
Lace Out said:
Haven’t been following tooo closely,obviously concerned at all the damage.

Italy horrific...why of the hundreds countries in the world are Australia predicted to get to that level of horrible ?
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We’re not.

I think Germany looks a much more reasonable comparison. But they’ve gone hard, early.
 
luthor said:
I fully understand the lag concept.

Yet Italy still seems to be the worst case scenario on so many levels

I've gone back to this source

www.worldometers.info

COVID Live Update: 240,767,464 Cases and 4,903,550 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

and had a look at the dates at which the majorly afflicted countries reached 1000+ cases, their attendant deaths as at those dates and their current (23 March) Death tolls

I'm not clever enough to tabulate all of it in a sensible format but Italy and now Spain and France now look like the epicentres of the virus as far as cases and deaths go.

On the other hand , Germany is returning big infection numbers but a very low death rate. Even the US is not at this point looking like the horror show that is unfolding in much of continental Europe.

I have no idea why this is so but it does demonstrate that not every country (irrespective of infection rates) has to end up being a mass killing ground for the virus,

My gut instinct is that the discipline of its citizens and the messaging of their Governments plays a bigger role than outright enforcement, especially in Western style democracies.
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With a few more days data it's looking more and more like our low fatality numbers are not an anomaly. They are obviously about to rise, but we are clearly now tracking well below many countries with similar recorded infection rates.

The government is already trying to take credit for this, but it's obviously not the result of some grand plan. The data scientists will give us all the hows and whys in a few months time.
 
Saucery said:
Couldn't resist ;)

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The clip is a classic and is completely appropriate.



I’ve been watching a lot of his daily briefings and Trump is absolutely out of his depth and completely stupid. Have a look at Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases trying not to laugh out loud before one of the greatest facepalms in history.

Then there’s this.

 
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lioninthesand said:
I am a little more hopeful than I was a week ago for Australia.

Yes it's going to come and yes, it'll be bad. And... yes, we need to all take it seriously.

However - our transmission rate is low, mortality rate is low and we only have 10 cases in ICU. Experts now think we can keep mortality rate below 1%.

Our general uptake sits between the good countries and the bad with social distancing measures yet to take effect on the curve.

I saw the head of ICU at Melbourne hospital on ABC say he was confident that they could manage the influx looking at numbers and projections.

Italy having a decrease in their deaths overnight should indicate they had hit the top of their arc and should now decline. That along with China says to me it won't be months, it Will be weeks.

We are up againts the biggest challenge since WW2 but I think we are positioned to navigate it ok, so long as we socially isolate properly.
Click to expand...

...I'm a little bit different, and this will explain why I haven't been on as often as in the past..my bride for over 30 years was diagnosed with terminal cancer back in November the treatment she has been given is to extend the life expectancy...She is in the 4% fatality rate should she get an infection, We've already been told..that as of next week, there won't be the level of care available for her... those words kept echoing in my head...Words are important. I have some serious concerns about the messaging we are receiving… I think is so important and appropriate to share. In this time, we should be "PHYSICALLY distancing but SOCIALLY connecting!!!" The cancer hospital where we have been receiving treatment is earmarked to be a Covid -19 ICU... Her best protection is isolation and to avoid coming into contact with the virus entirely... I've already been in a semi strict staycation (isolation) for 3 weeks I immediately shower on return after any outing (shops and hospital visits)...I'm over paranoid on anything that comes into the house and wipe down all processed packaging mail and parcels... I'm in the process of putting her crew together for her should I end up with it .. https://gathermycrew.org.au/... ( I highly recommend this charity for anyone that is doing it tough and is proud and doesn't want to or know how to ask for help.)...Cheers
 
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