Crows and FINALS

[footy4ever]

Craig has pushed the message that the playing group have high expectations
and a great deal of belief and faith in themselves, when it comes to thoughts of playing in the finals this year.

Personally I think our standing in the whole scheme of things was sorely
exposed today. Losing to a bottom 4 team in turmoil, such as the teal,
highlights the vulnerability of the depleted Crows.

We cannot use the 'young team' excuse, because we were beaten by a younger team today.

Are there any true believers out there still expecting (not wishing and hoping)
to play finals this year?

I can't see it myself, and think Crows will finish 9th-12th which is where i envisaged them, before I was sucked in by their misleading 8-3 W/L ratio.

Hit me with it.

 

[Sir Vlado]

We WILL still make the finals, it'll be tough, but we'll grind it out.
We could start a string of wins with a win over Sydney despite our recent losses seeing as we got a good record against them.

I still think we are a very good side who are playing with a depleted side, and I think we should've beat Port today.

So I'm still optimistic.

 

[bomba4eva]

If the Crows can knock off the Blues, Tigers and the Bombers that will leave you on 11 wins. Find one more win and you could scrape into the finals.

 

[Mismatched]

Maybe its just because I've slowly moved on into a deep depression because of the last 5 or so games and have for once reached acceptance, but quite frankly, I wouldn't be too fussed if we missed the finals as it means we would get a far better draft pick than if we were to make the 8 and get knocked out in the first round which going on our current form would be more than likely. Lets face it, for us to suddenly become a contender something seriously must go right, i.e. we pull 2+ top class forwards and a couple of top class midfielders right out of you know where.

 

[FAITH]

We WILL still make the finals, it'll be tough, but we'll grind it out.
We could start a string of wins with a win over Sydney despite our recent losses seeing as we got a good record against them.

I still think we are a very good side who are playing with a depleted side, and I think we should've beat Port today.

So I'm still optimistic.

Who cares if we make the finals or not this season. WE WONT WIN A PREMIERSHIP this season. Lets rebuild our squad to win a premiership.
We have too many players who are average at best.
Lets delist 10 or so players this season and stock up.

 

[smoovy]

If we do make it we would be making up the numbers to a certain extent.

That said I would go into almost every finals game thinking we have a very good chance of winning against any side with exception of Geelong.

I would not be frightened of playing a Hawthorn or Bulldogs in Melbourne.

If you look at it in that respect, we are not that far off really.

 

[Sir Vlado]

If we do make it we would be making up the numbers to a certain extent.

That said I would go into almost every finals game thinking we have a very good chance of winning against any side with exception of Geelong.

I would not be frightened of playing a Hawthorn or Bulldogs in Melbourne.

If you look at it in that respect, we are not that far off really.

Well put, we just need to string a few wins together.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

If the Crows can knock off the Blues, Tigers and the Bombers that will leave you on 11 wins. Find one more win and you could scrape into the finals.

So now we have hit rock bottom you are giving us words of wisdom and hope. See you in bay 13 tomorrow

 

[Freddy Bassett]

If we do make it we would be making up the numbers to a certain extent.

That said I would go into almost every finals game thinking we have a very good chance of winning against any side with exception of Geelong.

I would not be frightened of playing a Hawthorn or Bulldogs in Melbourne.

If you look at it in that respect, we are not that far off really.

Lets be honest, almost every team in the comp would of run over Port in that last quarter. They froze up again. They are terrible. They stopped running. And we are that bad we couldnt finish them off. I think we will struggle to win another game after todays performance. We made a very ordinary team look average.

 

[footy4ever]

Lets rebuild our squad to win a premiership.
We have too many players who are average at best.
Lets delist 10 or so players this season and stock up.

How can we possibly stock up when we continue to finish middle order.
There are no real draft advantages there.

Stocking up is good, but how could we be sure they will be better than the delistings? ...apart from being younger in cases. No use trading apples for apples.

Along with drafts/rookies, I think we really need to target aggressively, and steal/poach one or two youngish established guns...like Roughhead eg. Not another W.Carey, but someone of note on the up.

 

[joejoe]

Maybe its just because I've slowly moved on into a deep depression because of the last 5 or so games and have for once reached acceptance, but quite frankly, I wouldn't be too fussed if we missed the finals as it means we would get a far better draft pick than if we were to make the 8 and get knocked out in the first round which going on our current form would be more than likely. Lets face it, for us to suddenly become a contender something seriously must go right, i.e. we pull 2+ top class forwards and a couple of top class midfielders right out of you know where.

ANYTHING can happen in finals, you gotta be in it to win it, what if injuries or suspension ravaged either geelong, the bulldogs or hawthorn, Id like to be in the running to shake things up.

 

[Alex99]

As I said in a different thread, I cannot see us winning another game this season with the current game plan in place.

We will not beat Sydney, St Kilda or the Western Bulldogs and if Carlton and Richmond play like they have the last few weeks, we will be 0 and 5 – leaves only Essendon to beat and we are yet to snaffle a victory over then in Victoria. Not that inspirational.


The rest of the year is a bit like Limbo - how low can we go.

 

[PCORF]

If the Crows can knock off the Blues, Tigers and the Bombers that will leave you on 11 wins. Find one more win and you could scrape into the finals.

Those two Telstra Dome games are likely to be losses, both which are day games with the roof likely to be open. We've never beaten Essendon away from home in our history. St Kilda is playing much better (or what I must say awesome) footy and I think they will be too strong for us.

We have to win all our remaining home games and an away game and we can. We're good enough, we just need to get the confidence back in the team. Maybe get the team together and watch a replay from 1997 prelim final, or some other game simmilar (like Round 22 last year). Show the players what this team has done in the past.

But its likely that we will not be playing Finals this year which is probably a better thing. No more September heartbreak to put up with, just a good early end to the season and this will make the team hungrier in 2009.

 

[Bassethound]

Along with drafts/rookies, I think we really need to target aggressively, and steal/poach one or two youngish established guns...like Roughhead eg. Not another W.Carey, but someone of note on the up.

Yep!!! Target youngish but proven players that just can't consistently get a game with Power-laden sides like Geelong and Hawthorn etc., surely these sides must be struggling to fit them all inside their salary cap....a problem Adelaide shouldn't have with several of our "big money" earners nearing the end. For mine far better value at this stage than hoping our 3rd, 4th, 5th draft picks will belie their positions in the draft and turn out superstars.

 

[pjcrows]

For the first time in 18 years of watching my team play, I'm not overly concerned whether we play finals or not, and was - deep-down - not overly disappointed with today's loss because it doesn't let us paint over the cracks of our structure.

There. I said it.

 

[pjcrows]

If we do make it we would be making up the numbers to a certain extent.

That said I would go into almost every finals game thinking we have a very good chance of winning against any side with exception of Geelong.

I would not be frightened of playing a Hawthorn or Bulldogs in Melbourne.

If you look at it in that respect, we are not that far off really.

But if you look at it in reality, we are a long, long way off.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

If the Crows can knock off the Blues, Tigers and the Bombers that will leave you on 11 wins. Find one more win and you could scrape into the finals.

That's the spirit. Our great start means that we can still sneak in to the eight. Easy to lose sight of that when your in a five game losing streak. Just as it was difficult to see the bottom of the champagne glass when we were sitting 8-3.

 

[Deaneus!]

Craig has pushed the message that the playing group have high expectations
and a great deal of belief and faith in themselves, when it comes to thoughts of playing in the finals this year.

Personally I think our standing in the whole scheme of things was sorely
exposed today. Losing to a bottom 4 team in turmoil, such as the teal,
highlights the vulnerability of the depleted Crows.

We cannot use the 'young team' excuse, because we were beaten by a younger team today.

Are there any true believers out there still expecting (not wishing and hoping)
to play finals this year?

I can't see it myself, and think Crows will finish 9th-12th which is where i envisaged them, before I was sucked in by their misleading 8-3 W/L ratio.

Hit me with it.

Agree. While we may have been beaten by a younger team today, it was a younger team that had forwards.

We'll finish 9th to 12th: 6 rounds to go (already!) and isn't it generally 12 or 13 wins to get in - in those six games we've got:

Team - Outcome - Position - Their Run Home
Sydney - 4th - us, Bulldogs, Fremantle, Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane
Carlton - 11th - Bulldogs, us, Port, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Hawthorn
Richmond - 10th - Brisbane, Geelong, us, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Melbourne
Essendon - 12th - Collingwood, Melbourne, West Coast, us, Bulldogs, St Kilda
Western Bulldogs - 2nd - Carlton, Sydney, Kangas, Brisbane, Essendon, us
St Kilda (win/loss) - 7th - West Coast, Port, Collingwood, Fremantle, us, Essendon

We're ninth. We should beat Carlton, Richmond & Essendon. Bulldogs and Sydney no, St Kilda's a maybe. That's 11 wins, probably not enough.

We'll be playing the 10th, 11th & 12th placed teams currently over the next four weeks, and they'll be trying to steal 8th spot too. Carlton should beat Port, maybe us... two wins won't be enough to get into the finals. Richmond should beat Fremantle and Melbourne, which isn't enough to get them in either. Essendon should beat Melbourne and West Coast, but 2 wins isn't enough for them either. So we don't need to worry about any of the teams immediately below us.

Kangas - 8th - Melbourne, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Carlton, Geelong, Port - they should beat Melbourne, Carlton, Port - probably end up with 11.5 wins.
St Kilda - 7th - West Coast, Port, Collingwood, Fremantle, us, Essendon - they should beat West Coast, Port, Fremantle, us, Essendon - probably end up with 13 or 14 wins.
Brisbane - 6th - Richmond, Kangas, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Carlton, Sydney - they should beat Richmond, Carlton, and maybe beat Kangas, Sydney. Probably stay in the eight with 12 wins.
Collingwood - 5th - Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Port, Adelaide, Fremantle - they should beat Essendon, Port, Fremantle - total 12 wins, stay in the eight.

So, if everyone above us gets 11.5 to 12 wins, and we can probably only get 11, we're not getting back into the eight. To me, it looks like the bad old days, when the last six weeks of the season is always talked about as "we can still mathematically make the finals".

It is time to blood the kids, give all those on their last chance their last chance, send the oldies off for surgery and build towards next year. The higher draft pick will come in handy in this apparent superdraft too.

 

[Caramelas13]

We are playing with little confidence right at the moment. We shouldn't even think about playing finals.

Today was like an elimination final. Once again the pressure got to us. Silly mistakes under no pressure. We continue to keep teams in the game with our bad decision making. We are a rabble at the moment.

Deaneus just wrote that we should beat Essendon. We've never beaten them in our bloody history in Melbourne before. How on earth do you expect us to beat them on a fast track like TD the way we are playing?

We are kidding ourselves if we think we'll play finals. Even if we somehow make the 8, we will only be making up the numbers. Sad but true.

 

[slinks]

Finals are out of the question for us this year. Our game plan and forward structure doesn't warrant any september action. I know our morale and confidence is low - but this shouldn't affect making poor decisions when you have now immediate pressure with plenty of time and space.

One of the crows biggest dilemmas is consistent turnovers from kicking out. How can almost every other team in the league deal with this when we continue to struggle.

I can't see us finishing any higher than 10th - after playing around with the ladder predictor @ Allthestats http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php . Even if we did make it, we would only be making up the numbers (A team averaging 10 goals a game with the forwards currently available won't win many finals)

Best we look forward to 2009 and starting giving the young boys some much need experience in the big time.

 

[Caramelas13]

Finals are out of the question for us this year. Our game plan and forward structure doesn't warrant any september action. I know our morale and confidence is low - but this shouldn't affect making poor decisions when you have now immediate pressure with plenty of time and space.

One of the crows biggest dilemmas is consistent turnovers from kicking out. How can almost every other team in the league deal with this when we continue to struggle.

I can't see us finishing any higher than 10th - after playing around with the ladder predictor @ Allthestats http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php . Even if we did make it, we would only be making up the numbers (A team averaging 10 goals a game with the forwards currently available won't win many finals)

Best we look forward to 2009 and starting giving the young boys some much need experience in the big time.

Exactly.

Also Porps should just get his shoulder 100% right and not worry about trying to play again this year.

Also does Truck need a rest? He has not been the same player ever since the Dream Team game. Looks a bit slow and struggling for pace. He also seems to take a long time to get to the ball when its below the knees. Just don't think he's 100% right at the moment.

 

[Vince Van Mackay]

Craig has pushed the message that the playing group have high expectations
and a great deal of belief and faith in themselves, when it comes to thoughts of playing in the finals this year.

Yes and belief and faith in ones self and your players is all well and good in magical fairy land.

You have to back it up with action, otherwise they're just words, bullshit words. And so far, after all the talk, and all this supposed faith and belief, its just words and no action.

There is a difference between FAITH and BLIND FAITH Craigy!

Backup your words Neil and the Crows, if you can. I thought we were better club than the Power. Because we are all well aware you and the Crows senior players are well versed in talking the talk, but we've seen sweet **** all of walking the walk.

 

[slinks]

Brad Symes on 5aa just said the team is not looking at finals and more concerned about getting their next win.

 

[vlbl]

Finals are out of the question for us this year. Our game plan and forward structure doesn't warrant any september action. I know our morale and confidence is low - but this shouldn't affect making poor decisions when you have now immediate pressure with plenty of time and space.

One of the crows biggest dilemmas is consistent turnovers from kicking out. How can almost every other team in the league deal with this when we continue to struggle.

I can't see us finishing any higher than 10th - after playing around with the ladder predictor @ Allthestats http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php . Even if we did make it, we would only be making up the numbers (A team averaging 10 goals a game with the forwards currently available won't win many finals)

Best we look forward to 2009 and starting giving the young boys some much need experience in the big time.

I hope that really is the case if we lose to the Swans. However, this seems to be very unlikely as NC is DETERMINED to make the FINALS, even if it means we only see one week of action. I personally think its time we looked at reality, and made decisions accordingly. There is no point picking the same ol team and hoping for a win without really taking 'risks' (calculated i might add).

I would prefer it if from now on end we made a couple of last years draftees and the younger guys play a bit more, just so their in a better position next season, mainly Otten, kite, Walker and Jacky, Mckay, Gallman (Have a look at him before thinking of delisting), and Sellar (Yes he isn't setting the world on fire, but from all reports that is primarily due to a lack of opportunity, i'd rather have him play reserves for the rest of the year then play 5min p/q in seniors, and if he is performing well in reserves maybe give him another crack.

Its clear that the club needs to look to the future now then to dwell on a season where we will only be making up the numbers and not really achieving anything.