draft picks

[stefoid]

Best possible scenario, draft pick-wise, is that Freo, Sydney and the Sainters all win this week. Unlikely, but possible.

Sainters must win to get more than 5 1/2 points which is the cutoff point (25% of possible points) for extra pick.

that will give us draft pick #5. who can we get with that?



Worst possible scenario is that we win and all of the above loose, which will give us draft pick #8.

Thats quite a difference in a draft that is supposedly run of the mill.


thoughts?

 

[The Doctor]

The Saints, courtesy of their draw, do not qualify for a concessional pick. If we stay where we are we will get pick 5. Worst case scenario we will get pick 7.

Lets say we get pick 5!

The top 3 picks are likely to be;

1 Goddard 188cm
2. Wells 180cm
3. Salopek 183cm

all midfielder types

next pick is harder to predict

4/5. Schulz or Schammer (both from SA)

Schulz is a highly rated key forward at 193cm. Had a disappointing U/18 champs (as Polak did the previous year). Sure to be snapped up early.

Schammer is a 175cm rover and was named player of the U/18 tournament. A certainty to go in the top 5 by many experts.

Now here's an interesting thought for you all.

SUPPOSE Schulz goes at 4. Schammer could arguably be considered the next best player available. DO WE TAKE HIM? Many of you say take the next best available player. What if he is?

Other key possie players who should be highly sought in the draft are;

Paul Johnson - 197cm Ruck/key position player from Dandy
Stephen Gilham - 190cm CHB (Capt of Vic Metro)
Jason Lay**** - 198cm Key forward/Ruck from Tassie
Jared Brennan - 191cm Forward from NT
Hamish McIntosh - 201cm key forward ruck from Murray
Michael Johnson - 193 Ruck/Forward from WA

I'd say these guys would be the pick of the talls bunchand most would go in the 1st round. I'm a big fan of Brennan and would hope we could get him. Gilham and Lay**** would be my next preferences.

 

[SCRAY72]

Originally posted by The Doctor
The Saints, courtesy of their draw, do not qualify for a concessional pick. If we stay where we are we will get pick 5. Worst case scenario we will get pick 7.

Lets say we get pick 5!

The top 3 picks are likely to be;

1 Goddard 188cm
2. Wells 180cm
3. Salopek 183cm

all midfielder types

next pick is harder to predict

4/5. Schulz or Schammer (both from SA)

Schulz is a highly rated key forward at 193cm. Had a disappointing U/18 champs (as Polak did the previous year). Sure to be snapped up early.

Schammer is a 175cm rover and was named player of the U/18 tournament. A certainty to go in the top 5 by many experts.

Now here's an interesting thought for you all.

SUPPOSE Schulz goes at 4. Schammer could arguably be considered the next best player available. DO WE TAKE HIM? Many of you say take the next best available player. What if he is?

Other key possie players who should be highly sought in the draft are;

Paul Johnson - 197cm Ruck/key position player from Dandy
Stephen Gilham - 190cm CHB (Capt of Vic Metro)
Jason Lay**** - 198cm Key forward/Ruck from Tassie
Jared Brennan - 191cm Forward from NT
Hamish McIntosh - 201cm key forward ruck from Murray
Michael Johnson - 193 Ruck/Forward from WA

I'd say these guys would be the pick of the talls bunchand most would go in the 1st round. I'm a big fan of Brennan and would hope we could get him. Gilham and Lay**** would be my next preferences.

Threw up the same question last week. If the next best available player is under 180cm unless he is a freak like Hodge you would have to pass him up given our deficiencies with height. Should be interesting. Carlton should pick Goddard and Wells and St. Kilda Salopek and Richmond have already said they are after midfielders so the best young tall should be there for the taking when it is our pick.

 

[Captain Sensible]

Where does Callum Urch fit in Doc? That is what number do you see him going at?

 

[The Doctor]

Originally posted by localyokel
Where does Callum Urch fit in Doc? That is what number do you see him going at?

Probably somewhere between our 1st and 2nd pick would be my guess Local. If I were to put a wager on it I'd ask on the odds for 10-15.

Still a bit early to be calling this in reality as we still have finals and draft camps to get through.

Would love to see him in our colours.

 

[stefoid]

Originally posted by The Doctor
The Saints, courtesy of their draw, do not qualify for a concessional pick. If we stay where we are we will get pick 5. Worst case scenario we will get pick 7.

Are you sure? 22/4 is 5 1/2 wins in my book, which is what they are on.

 

[stefoid]

Originally posted by The Doctor

The top 3 picks are likely to be;

1 Goddard 188cm
2. Wells 180cm
3. Salopek 183cm

all midfielder types

next pick is harder to predict

4/5. Schulz or Schammer (both from SA)

Schulz is a highly rated key forward at 193cm. Had a disappointing U/18 champs (as Polak did the previous year). Sure to be snapped up early.

I'd say these guys would be the pick of the talls bunchand most would go in the 1st round. I'm a big fan of Brennan and would hope we could get him. Gilham and Lay**** would be my next preferences.

So beating collingwood could mean the difference between getting Schulze or not. Hmmm.... do you think that would cross Wallace's mind when picking the teams, putting certain players in certain positions and givings youngsters LOTS of ground time, even if they are getting beat?

P.S: Do you rate Schulze at all? Whats so good about Brennan?

 

[stefoid]

I think the good thing is that Richmond and the Saints are likely to go for midfielders. The blues midfield isnt exactly running over with talent, either, but since they have two picks, they could go a one each way.

 

[stefoid]

http://www.realfooty.theage.com.au/articles/2002/07/03/1025667007403.html


article..

seems Schulz weighs in at 78kilos? string beaner

 

[The Doctor]

Originally posted by stefoid
I think the good thing is that Richmond and the Saints are likely to go for midfielders. The blues midfield isnt exactly running over with talent, either, but since they have two picks, they could go a one each way.

Tigers would be mad to pass up Schammer if he was available come their turn given their dearth of midfielders. He is a hard at it, very inside, midfielder with pinpoint delivery skills who will rack up 30 possies a game. Would seem a suitable replacement for Knights.

Schulz is an interesting one. Very highly rated by people like Kevin Sheehan. He is one of the best young credentialled young forwards in the land having dominated at U/16's and against the Irish at U/17. His Under 18 form at the Champs this year was not good he just didn't get into the play. He has a strong physique and will be a collusses. I didn't see him take many contested marks and he sprayed a few kicks and he didn't get many of them. A few nice leads and glimpses of his talent but I was hoping for better. Reminded me a bit of Schwarz, the ex Dee.

Brennan really caught my eye. A real Jack in the box with a huge spring. Consequently a very good aerialist with a nice left foot kick. Also superb at ground level. His second efforts were a highlight. He's athletically gifted and capable of doing the freakish. I liked how he really got into the play and didn't sit back waiting for things to happen. Was nominated in the All Australian team. I think he could play next year.

 

[OldSchool]

There is some talk that a third club might need to get involved with the Carey to the Crows option as the Kangas are under a lot of salary cap pressure.
Not sure that it would fit the Doggies philosophy however, at least one club is eyeing the Crows list to see if they can grab an established player or two rather than the early pick.

 

[jim440]

Originally posted by OldSchool
There is some talk that a third club might need to get involved with the Carey to the Crows option as the Kangas are under a lot of salary cap pressure.
Not sure that it would fit the Doggies philosophy however, at least one club is eyeing the Crows list to see if they can grab an established player or two rather than the early pick.

Kane Johnson is bound to be involved. Not the kind of player we need.

 

[dancingdoggie17]

OK, both of these questions might sound really stupid but i want to know.

1. Where do you know all the stuff about the players in the draft??

2. How does the AFL decide who gets which draft pick? Im totally confused when it comes to that bit!

 

[Captain Sensible]

Originally posted by The Doctor


Probably somewhere between our 1st and 2nd pick would be my guess Local. If I were to put a wager on it I'd ask on the odds for 10-15.

Still a bit early to be calling this in reality as we still have finals and draft camps to get through.

Would love to see him in our colours.

So does that mean we are not a realistic chance then?




Thats a shame because I think the boy would love to wear the colours. He grew up a couple of torps away from the footy ground and has followed us all his life.

 

[The Doctor]

Originally posted by localyokel
So does that mean we are not a realistic chance then?
/B]

We've got a lot to get through between now and draft day. Player trades could have an effect on our pick order.

Don't forget that this is only my opinion. Recruit people will have a more informed and different view to me.

 

[Chops]

Originally posted by The Doctor

next pick is harder to predict
4/5. Schulz or Schammer (both from SA)

The thing that worries me about picks from interstate is the home sick theory (J White, S Grant, S Tregenza, K Koster, T MCGuiness,etc). I know we have interstaters now like McMahon, Harris, Hargrave, etc. and we will always battle their home state to keep them.
Is a local boy that has followed the club (like Urch now/B Johnson in past) more likely to give his all every week and an interstater likely to be a bit of a show pony? Just think of the culture of the club?

Does that elevate them in the order for us?

 

[Captain Sensible]

Originally posted by Chops


The thing that worries me about picks from interstate is the home sick theory (J White, S Grant, S Tregenza, K Koster, T MCGuiness,etc). I know we have interstaters now like McMahon, Harris, Hargrave, etc. and we will always battle their home state to keep them.
Is a local boy that has followed the club (like Urch now/B Johnson in past) more likely to give his all every week and an interstater likely to be a bit of a show pony? Just think of the culture of the club?

Does that elevate them in the order for us?

Ive made this point before. I reckon that a kid who has followed the footy club all his life is more likely to give his all than a player who is playing for a wage. It must also count for something at contract negotation time. I understand Rohan Smith was toying with an offer from Essendon until his dad stepped in a couple of years ago although thats not from a source I have found ultra reliable in the past.




BTW does anyone know who the players who were doggies fans before being recruited? I can only think of Smith, Johnson and Hargrave, with Mark West the only other one in my memory.

 

[stefoid]

Originally posted by Chops


The thing that worries me about picks from interstate is the home sick theory (J White, S Grant, S Tregenza, K Koster, T MCGuiness,etc). I know we have interstaters now like McMahon, Harris, Hargrave, etc. and we will always battle their home state to keep them.
Is a local boy that has followed the club (like Urch now/B Johnson in past) more likely to give his all every week and an interstater likely to be a bit of a show pony? Just think of the culture of the club?

Does that elevate them in the order for us?

I think Interstaters that come to Melbourne tend to stick a bit better than the other way around. I guess it depends if the kid likes the 'big smoke'

 

[dancingdoggie17]

FINE!! ill find it out somewhere else!!

 

[Curly5]

Originally posted by dancingdoggie17
OK, both of these questions might sound really stupid but i want to know.

1. Where do you know all the stuff about the players in the draft??

2. How does the AFL decide who gets which draft pick? Im totally confused when it comes to that bit!

Come on boys, I'd like to know as well! Share your knowledge with us dumb chicks.

 

[jim440]

Originally posted by dancingdoggie17
OK, both of these questions might sound really stupid but i want to know.

1. Where do you know all the stuff about the players in the draft??

2. How does the AFL decide who gets which draft pick? Im totally confused when it comes to that bit!

Sorry Gemzy, I assumed someone else would answer.

1. Only what I read. Better ask the Doctor.

2. Draft picks are decided by the position you finished on the ladder - from bottom to top. If you are really crap and win 5 games or less (hello Carlton) you get a concessional pick before the draw. St. Kilda has 5 1/2 wins so will not get this pick.

Draft picks can be traded.

If we lose to Collingwood this week (assuming no-one trades their early pick) the order will be:

1. Carlton
2. Carlton
3. St. Kilda
4. Richmond
5. Bulldogs

 

[Mr. Walker]

Originally posted by Curly5

Come on boys, I'd like to know as well! Share your knowledge with us dumb chicks.

Not all chicks are dumb, there was this girl I met once in 1985...........

 

[OldSchool]

Originally posted by dancingdoggie17
FINE!! ill find it out somewhere else!!

Sorry DD17, I thought Doc would have replied.
I do some work in this area and get to many TAC games each weekend. I collate data and make some recommendations however, it is just the hard yards for the experts.

Don't know too much about Doc's love of all matters draft and junior football but my best guess is that he logs onto all the junior football sites to ascertain which players consistently star at the junior level. I would also guess that he reads many articles on junior football in every state. I think he might have caught a couple of games at the recent carnival. I would have liked to have caught up with him at the carnival because I'm sure he would have found all the data we collate very interesting.
I'm sure he will log on later today and give you a better explanation.

 

[dogboy23]

Old School have you had a chance to look at the cannons again yet?Jamie Lobb(the guy I was telling you about in another thread if you remember) was best on ground on the weekend so it would have been a good game to catch.Douglas kicked 7 aswell.Talked to Cheep on satyrday and he has been invited to the draft camp.He tells me that it has been chaged so that it is now 7 clubs have to nominate you for the draft camp before you get an invite.Is this true Old School?

 

[OldSchool]

Originally posted by Chops


The thing that worries me about picks from interstate is the home sick theory (J White, S Grant, S Tregenza, K Koster, T MCGuiness,etc). I know we have interstaters now like McMahon, Harris, Hargrave, etc. and we will always battle their home state to keep them.
Is a local boy that has followed the club (like Urch now/B Johnson in past) more likely to give his all every week and an interstater likely to be a bit of a show pony? Just think of the culture of the club?

Does that elevate them in the order for us?

It is a good point Chops, we never hear about any problems when Johnno signs a new contract.
I still think you have to take the best player early on however, it would a consideration with the later picks.
Urch is a nice young man and would be a great addition for the Doggies.
At least one of the "big names" from SA this year would not handle the move well and is somewhat overrated.