Empire and Invasion: Inevitable?

[Gethelred]

This thread is brought about because of a conversation between RCAB and kranky al, concerning the historicity of a claim made early on: in any 50 year bloc of human history, a stronger nation has invaded a weaker one.

If you have any opinions or evidence to put forth for or against, grab your lances and get to jousting!

 

[kranky al]

kranky al if you want to say "China is going to try to invade WA" fair enough,.but it's not about two nations (we're both multi ethnic polities-one a republic, the other a commonwealth) and past performance isn't necessarily an indication of future performance.

Individuals and groups seek resources, and China has a big appetite. Your point is broadly apposite.

China actively stakes out the South China Sea and Taiwan. Taiwan has strategic value, probably even more propaganda value. The Amur Basin is another strategic objective.

China's asset allocation would seem to indicate these are their objectives. Fully controlling all three seems a long way off.

WA isn't in the same class of objectives, AFAIK China may have allocated some trolls.

Force projection is hard. Right now only the US has the capability to invade Australia.

Even in a "no US alliance" scenario a Chinese invasion is still decades away. Time to build a regional alliance.

There’s more than just invasion to worry about.

What if they decide to start fishing in our waters because they have fished their own out?

At the rate they are building ships they will have a force projection capability by mid 2030’s

 

[Cyclops]

There’s more than just invasion to worry about.

What if they decide to start fishing in our waters because they have fished their own out?

At the rate they are building ships they will have a force projection capability by mid 2030’s

If China is sending carrier groups to protect fishing vessels in Australian waters in the next 15 years I'll eat all three of my hats.

They are encircled by regional and global rivals, with far strong calls on their attention than fish.

There's a bloke called Zeitan who wrote a horrible book called "the End if the World is Just the Beginning" which plots out trends if and when the US withdraws from being the global policeman. He git Ukraine wrong, but Trump is getting him back on track.

He feels Australia would be one of the last places the US would withdraw from.

Long before that happened China would lose 50% of its population to starvation.

China's wealth is built on US stability. If the US carrier groups go home, the international chaos would collapse world trade. China's food security is strategically exposed and their trade (utterly reliant on US consumption and protection) even more so.

The One Belt Road is some Pyramid tier white elephant vanity project, international trade goes over blue water and will continue to until we get fireproof blimps.

His argument is pretty sound, have a read. The demographic stuff is horrendous.

 

[kranky al]

If China is sending carrier groups to protect fishing vessels in Australian waters in the next 15 years I'll eat all three of my hats.

They are encircled by regional and global rivals, with far strong calls on their attention than fish.

There's a bloke called Zeitan who wrote a horrible book called "the End if the World is Just the Beginning" which plots out trends if and when the US withdraws from being the global policeman. He git Ukraine wrong, but Trump is getting him back on track.

He feels Australia would be one of the last places the US would withdraw from.

Long before that happened China would lose 50% of its population to starvation.

China's wealth is built on US stability. If the US carrier groups go home, the international chaos would collapse world trade. China's food security is strategically exposed and their trade (utterly reliant on US consumption and protection) even more so.

The One Belt Road is some Pyramid tier white elephant vanity project, international trade goes over blue water and will continue to until we get fireproof blimps.

His argument is pretty sound, have a read. The demographic stuff is horrendous.

I will have a read sounds interesting

China don’t need to send the fleet here, just a carrier group….. of which they are building multiple.

15 years time they will have the force projection that the us has. Perhaps they read your book?

 

[kranky al]

247K views · 4.1K reactions | A good summary of the incident that occurred between Australian Navy Divers and a Chinese vessel the other day. #TPE 🍍🍍🍍 | By The Pineapple | Facebook

A good summary of the incident that occurred between Australian Navy Divers and a Chinese vessel the other day. #TPE 🍍🍍🍍

www.facebook.com