FINAL 8 Value bets?

[demon_fanatic]

Hey guys trying to find some value in Final 8 Bets.... the eagles get back Kennedy this week i think? if the dees drop this week its going to be awfully nerve racking for us fans most likely needing to win final game to get in.!!!. off the top of my head we can still make it with zero wins haha i think if North only win 1 of Ade/stk, Essendon 1of rich/port and Port none of Coll/Ess, so we could have a situation if Adelaide win this week, Richmond defeat Essendon and Pies defeat Port... that the dees could actually seal their place friday night of final round before even playing!!!... if Essendon get the job done over a battered port (i doubt it as if Esssendon lose this week they'll probably be flat for Port who could get Ryder back for final round)

I am presuming Geelong scrape in due to their 2 easy final games unless Freo come out and ruin the party like they loved to do in finals series those few years ago... so i think the value is with North sneaking in if you think they can beat adelaide this week and think the dees and port will botch their final 2 games ... or Essendon if they can somehow end the tigers streak at mcg and the above happens plus north lose to adelaide .

thoughts??

 

[X_box_X]

My predicted results for the final two rounds and subsequent ladder predictor.

Round 22
Tigers to beat Bombers
Pies to beat Power *
Cats to beat Dockers
Swans to beat Giants **
Lions to beat Suns
Hawks to beat Saints
Dogs to beat Blues
Eagles to beat Demons *
Crows to beat Kangas

ROUND 22 LADDER

Round 23
Power to beat Bombers *
Cats to beat Suns
Tigers to beat Dogs *
Pies to beat Dockers *
Crows to beat Blues
Hawks to beat Swans **
Lions to beat Eagles **
Demons to beat Giants *
Kangas to beat Saints

FINAL LADDER

* denotes tough to predict
** denotes very tough to predict

I have given Brisbane a win over the Eagles in the final round. Eagles will finish second no matter what, and I reckon this is a game the Lions can win if the Eagles aren't desperate for a victory. The difference between the Eagles of 2018 and the fast finishing Eagles of the previous three seasons is this year they have secured a top two finish and can afford to take their foot off the pedal slightly.

For the same reason, I am not confident of the Tigers beating the Dogs in round 23. I think class will prevail in the end, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers drop this one. The Bulldogs are the only team the Tigers haven't beaten since the start of 2017 (last win was 2013).

I have given the Dees the edge against the Giants in the final round. I think the Dees will be more desperate and based on my predictions, the Giants won't be in a position to finish top four, and can't move from 5th or 6th so a win or a loss here still gets them a week one home final. Dees won't want to fall at the last hurdle for the second year in a row, and they're too classy not to play finals.

Hawks tend to perform well against the Swans. This shapes as possibly the biggest match of the final round, especially if the Swans beat the Giants this week. Two more wins for the Swans and they're finishing top four.

Pies and Power is the other massive match. Both teams with so much to play for. **** Port have been unlucky in the past two weeks. Imagine how unlucky they will feel if they become the first 13-win team to miss finals, and on percentage? Pies should get the job done at the MCG, but I'm not confident.