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Prediction Flag Chances 2017

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Kings getting owned
 
Wolftone said:
Don't see your point. Robbo is not slow. He is also elusive and has one of the best sidesteps I have ever seen. He is a good reader of the play, not unlike Lloyd. He averages 5 tackles/game. He needs to build his disposal numbers, only 12.5 but that includes the game he got injured. His highest tally is 18, got to do that or better in every game. He does a lot in the clinches that don't get a stat like pushing the ball out or pulling opponents off the ball or bumping and shepherding. He is a team player that is why I like him.
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Nankervis could beat robbo in a foot race

Might only be me but just don't rate the kid , but that's me
 
Wolftone said:
Firstly I didn't say Reid WAS one of the best KF in the comp I said HE COULD BE IF LEFT AT CHF. He hasn't played enough games in the key position to ******* know. We keep playing him FP, HF, extra in the backs or wing for Christ's sake. I said three years ago we should have left him in the key forward position and let him develop. We didn't, coaches fault not his. Must get confusing going into a game not knowing where you will play. We never let this bloke develop the way Boyd, Patton, Cameron etc have been left to develop into their positions.

Yep and McGoo was good in the GF was he? They got that right didn't they?

I don't see anyone as irreplaceable. Mitchell's gone, so what, someone else steps up. I think you put too much store into Mitchell. He was a very good player but not irreplaceable. The player won't be as dynamic as he was but will play a role. I think if a player is just a money-grubber we don't want him anyway.

The reality you are missing on the older players is they have just hit 30. Goodes, 35, Pebbles 33, Benny 31, Shaw 34, LRT 32, of these Benny was the only one that age caught at 30. Players are playing longer these days. It is not unusual for players to retire at 33-35.

Whether you like it or not Newman has been upgraded to the Senior list because the coaches see a role for him in the side. If you look at last season you will see there were times they would have loved to play him but there was no place on the Senior list. We had already upgraded two Rookies, Papley & Foote. We didn't have another spot available. He was emergency a couple of times which means they wanted to upgrade him but had to think about the bigger picture first. Quote me now Newman WILL play.

Talia will be a player if he pulls his head in. He was playing pretty good footy for Bullies. We only got him because he sold the blueprint to their game LOL.

Why are you trying so hard to replace Reg? He is in prime form, will continue to be next year and doesn't need replacing for at least one more season if not two. Lake retired on top at 32 and they are a similar body shape.

Kizza is replaceable but I don't see any reason to prematurely end his career. I mean other players like Mills will step into his role as time goes on. Young developing players too.

As for Benny being replaced by Towers etc. Benny should never have played the GF and should not have played this year. He had a few good games but not many. He kicked 5 in one if I remember rightly but they were all opportunistic goals and his output other than that was not particularly good. He was going badly and must have got the message to sit under the big blokes because he did and got 5 crumbs for 5 goals.

Towers was playing really good footy in the beginning and middle of the year but had a form slump. He was getting over 25 in most games up until then, in fact he averaged 18.5 over the year including the two or three bad games and 4.5 marks. His tackle output was poor last season and probably led to his downfall.

Rose is another option to take Benny's place. In fact I much prefer his enthusiasm, drive and ability to hit targets to Benny's 'can't hit the side of a barn' passes running through the centre. Yes Benny was capable of kicking multiple goals, sometimes...Um. Rose has the upside of being very freaky, quick, he chases & tackles. He's keen as mustard!

As for whether they will be better than the players they replaced? In 2012 we won a premiership & I would not have trusted us if we got two or three injuries so lucky we stayed fi. In 2013 we had some injuries and were not able to adequately replace them and went out only beating the Blues,who shouldn't have been there in the first place. Then there was 2014. All the way to the GF and melted like an Icy Pole in the Simpson Desert. There were issues with some older players and a general lack of good depth but even then we were improving that. In 2015 we again had a hellish September with injuries and if we had kicked straight in the qualifying Final we would have won. Our depth was improving but the sheer weight of our injuries took their toll. In 2016 we had far better depth than we have had in a very long time. The problem is that last season the coaches decided not to trust our depth and play injured or not match fit players in the GF. History has been very unkind to teams that do that. They have all lost. So do I think that this season's list is better than last? Bloody oath I do. We have added two first round picks for the first time in what seems like forever. We have drafted particularly well and our younger players are developing very nicely. We are ripe and if we don't get it 2017 we will next.
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I reckon I shall read this every day in the off season and I will not tire of it. Deluded you and I both may well be, but for fans such as us - this is manna and ambrosia. We are a very real chance of being the only team who will challenge GWS in 2017.
 

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Wolftone said:
Firstly I didn't say Reid WAS one of the best KF in the comp I said HE COULD BE IF LEFT AT CHF. He hasn't played enough games in the key position to ******* know. We keep playing him FP, HF, extra in the backs or wing for Christ's sake. I said three years ago we should have left him in the key forward position and let him develop. We didn't, coaches fault not his. Must get confusing going into a game not knowing where you will play. We never let this bloke develop the way Boyd, Patton, Cameron etc have been left to develop into their positions.

Yep and McGoo was good in the GF was he? They got that right didn't they?

I don't see anyone as irreplaceable. Mitchell's gone, so what, someone else steps up. I think you put too much store into Mitchell. He was a very good player but not irreplaceable. The player won't be as dynamic as he was but will play a role. I think if a player is just a money-grubber we don't want him anyway.

The reality you are missing on the older players is they have just hit 30. Goodes, 35, Pebbles 33, Benny 31, Shaw 34, LRT 32, of these Benny was the only one that age caught at 30. Players are playing longer these days. It is not unusual for players to retire at 33-35.

Whether you like it or not Newman has been upgraded to the Senior list because the coaches see a role for him in the side. If you look at last season you will see there were times they would have loved to play him but there was no place on the Senior list. We had already upgraded two Rookies, Papley & Foote. We didn't have another spot available. He was emergency a couple of times which means they wanted to upgrade him but had to think about the bigger picture first. Quote me now Newman WILL play.

Talia will be a player if he pulls his head in. He was playing pretty good footy for Bullies. We only got him because he sold the blueprint to their game LOL.

Why are you trying so hard to replace Reg? He is in prime form, will continue to be next year and doesn't need replacing for at least one more season if not two. Lake retired on top at 32 and they are a similar body shape.

Kizza is replaceable but I don't see any reason to prematurely end his career. I mean other players like Mills will step into his role as time goes on. Young developing players too.

As for Benny being replaced by Towers etc. Benny should never have played the GF and should not have played this year. He had a few good games but not many. He kicked 5 in one if I remember rightly but they were all opportunistic goals and his output other than that was not particularly good. He was going badly and must have got the message to sit under the big blokes because he did and got 5 crumbs for 5 goals.

Towers was playing really good footy in the beginning and middle of the year but had a form slump. He was getting over 25 in most games up until then, in fact he averaged 18.5 over the year including the two or three bad games and 4.5 marks. His tackle output was poor last season and probably led to his downfall.

Rose is another option to take Benny's place. In fact I much prefer his enthusiasm, drive and ability to hit targets to Benny's 'can't hit the side of a barn' passes running through the centre. Yes Benny was capable of kicking multiple goals, sometimes...Um. Rose has the upside of being very freaky, quick, he chases & tackles. He's keen as mustard!

As for whether they will be better than the players they replaced? In 2012 we won a premiership & I would not have trusted us if we got two or three injuries so lucky we stayed fi. In 2013 we had some injuries and were not able to adequately replace them and went out only beating the Blues,who shouldn't have been there in the first place. Then there was 2014. All the way to the GF and melted like an Icy Pole in the Simpson Desert. There were issues with some older players and a general lack of good depth but even then we were improving that. In 2015 we again had a hellish September with injuries and if we had kicked straight in the qualifying Final we would have won. Our depth was improving but the sheer weight of our injuries took their toll. In 2016 we had far better depth than we have had in a very long time. The problem is that last season the coaches decided not to trust our depth and play injured or not match fit players in the GF. History has been very unkind to teams that do that. They have all lost. So do I think that this season's list is better than last? Bloody oath I do. We have added two first round picks for the first time in what seems like forever. We have drafted particularly well and our younger players are developing very nicely. We are ripe and if we don't get it 2017 we will next.
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So good!
 
Wolftone said:
Firstly I didn't say Reid WAS one of the best KF in the comp I said HE COULD BE IF LEFT AT CHF. He hasn't played enough games in the key position to ******* know. We keep playing him FP, HF, extra in the backs or wing for Christ's sake. I said three years ago we should have left him in the key forward position and let him develop. We didn't, coaches fault not his. Must get confusing going into a game not knowing where you will play. We never let this bloke develop the way Boyd, Patton, Cameron etc have been left to develop into their positions.

Yep and McGoo was good in the GF was he? They got that right didn't they?

I don't see anyone as irreplaceable. Mitchell's gone, so what, someone else steps up. I think you put too much store into Mitchell. He was a very good player but not irreplaceable. The player won't be as dynamic as he was but will play a role. I think if a player is just a money-grubber we don't want him anyway.

The reality you are missing on the older players is they have just hit 30. Goodes, 35, Pebbles 33, Benny 31, Shaw 34, LRT 32, of these Benny was the only one that age caught at 30. Players are playing longer these days. It is not unusual for players to retire at 33-35.

Whether you like it or not Newman has been upgraded to the Senior list because the coaches see a role for him in the side. If you look at last season you will see there were times they would have loved to play him but there was no place on the Senior list. We had already upgraded two Rookies, Papley & Foote. We didn't have another spot available. He was emergency a couple of times which means they wanted to upgrade him but had to think about the bigger picture first. Quote me now Newman WILL play.

Talia will be a player if he pulls his head in. He was playing pretty good footy for Bullies. We only got him because he sold the blueprint to their game LOL.

Why are you trying so hard to replace Reg? He is in prime form, will continue to be next year and doesn't need replacing for at least one more season if not two. Lake retired on top at 32 and they are a similar body shape.

Kizza is replaceable but I don't see any reason to prematurely end his career. I mean other players like Mills will step into his role as time goes on. Young developing players too.

As for Benny being replaced by Towers etc. Benny should never have played the GF and should not have played this year. He had a few good games but not many. He kicked 5 in one if I remember rightly but they were all opportunistic goals and his output other than that was not particularly good. He was going badly and must have got the message to sit under the big blokes because he did and got 5 crumbs for 5 goals.

Towers was playing really good footy in the beginning and middle of the year but had a form slump. He was getting over 25 in most games up until then, in fact he averaged 18.5 over the year including the two or three bad games and 4.5 marks. His tackle output was poor last season and probably led to his downfall.

Rose is another option to take Benny's place. In fact I much prefer his enthusiasm, drive and ability to hit targets to Benny's 'can't hit the side of a barn' passes running through the centre. Yes Benny was capable of kicking multiple goals, sometimes...Um. Rose has the upside of being very freaky, quick, he chases & tackles. He's keen as mustard!

As for whether they will be better than the players they replaced? In 2012 we won a premiership & I would not have trusted us if we got two or three injuries so lucky we stayed fi. In 2013 we had some injuries and were not able to adequately replace them and went out only beating the Blues,who shouldn't have been there in the first place. Then there was 2014. All the way to the GF and melted like an Icy Pole in the Simpson Desert. There were issues with some older players and a general lack of good depth but even then we were improving that. In 2015 we again had a hellish September with injuries and if we had kicked straight in the qualifying Final we would have won. Our depth was improving but the sheer weight of our injuries took their toll. In 2016 we had far better depth than we have had in a very long time. The problem is that last season the coaches decided not to trust our depth and play injured or not match fit players in the GF. History has been very unkind to teams that do that. They have all lost. So do I think that this season's list is better than last? Bloody oath I do. We have added two first round picks for the first time in what seems like forever. We have drafted particularly well and our younger players are developing very nicely. We are ripe and if we don't get it 2017 we will next.
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Great to see such positive analysis. For reasons such as you have itemised, we may win the flag next year.

Or we may fall off a cliff. At the end of the day, isn't that why we love footy?
 
That analysis was great and fills me with confidence. We'll be better in 2017 than we were in 16. Our younger players are that little bit more experienced. A couple will take a step up. Heeney and Mills will continue their trajectory towards becoming elite.

Jones will beast 2017
We lost mitch, but Heeney will take more of a midfield role and will make our midfield even more dynamic. Titch moving on is an upgrade imo (provided JPK stays fit).
Reid and talia will have opportunities to prove themselves.
I hope tippet stays healthy and finally delivers on his half season promise.
Buddy will have youth around him, making our forward line more dynamic which will free him up to do what buddy does best.
If our core stay fit. We can beat anyone
 
SBD Gonzalez said:
Great to see such positive analysis. For reasons such as you have itemised, we may win the flag next year.

Or we may fall off a cliff. At the end of the day, isn't that why we love footy?
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I love footy and have never fallen off a cliff. Our team fell off a cliff sometime shortly after the depression and it took seventy years for the rescue team to find them. They survived by eating their young.( Danihers, Rhys Jones, Greg Williams, Little Saveloy, Grant, That Richmond backman ) Surprising how our finals appearances over the last decade and a half have all but erased for a generation of Swans supporters, any inkling of a memory of how dismal and bleak it was lying at the base of that cliff, willing the boys to climb back up that precipice. We know all about that cliff and its perils and it is not claiming us ever again.
 
Vin Rogue said:
I love footy and have never fallen off a cliff. Our team fell off a cliff sometime shortly after the depression and it took seventy years for the rescue team to find them. They survived by eating their young.( Danihers, Rhys Jones, Greg Williams, Little Saveloy, Grant, That Richmond backman ) Surprising how our finals appearances over the last decade and a half have all but erased for a generation of Swans supporters, any inkling of a memory of how dismal and bleak it was lying at the base of that cliff, willing the boys to climb back up that precipice. We know all about that cliff and its perils and it is not claiming us ever again.
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I too am very confident we will not fall off a cliff but my point was that our fear of that ever happening is one of the reasons we love footy in general, and I might add, the Swans in particular.

A bit like parenting - becoming a parent triggers the realisation that you can never ever again be entirely free of worry. But that is one of the main things that makes parenting so profound and fulfilling.
 
SBD Gonzalez said:
I too am very confident we will not fall off a cliff but my point was that our fear of that ever happening is one of the reasons we love footy in general, and I might add, the Swans in particular.

A bit like parenting - becoming a parent triggers the realisation that you can never ever again be entirely free of worry. But that is one of the main things that makes parenting so profound and fulfilling.
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Yes, that vulnerability has profound impacts. I like your explanation a lot. Cheers.
 
We're certs for a top 4 finish.

Mitchell hurts but with Heeney keen to move into the engine room, we lose nothing and probably get better in the middle.

Buddy, Kennedy, Hanners still in their primes and Rampe, Jones and Heeney just hitting theirs.

Aliir, Naismith and Mills will improve and Reg isn't done yet. If the GF backlash doesn't light a fire under Tippett then nothing will. Jack and McVeigh will play with more freedom.

Papley is the only player I'm worried about regressing but the promise of Reid, destroyer of worlds more than makes up for it.

Hawks are done, Doggies and Giants both over achieved and Geelong still can't go with us on the scoreboard. Nobody else is ready for prime time.

We're absolute morals for a top 4 finish and I reckon only the doggies are a chance of getting over us.
 
I reckon Heeney is going to absolutely tear games apart next year.
I also think Aliir and Jones are going to have break out seasons and mills consistency and impact is going to be step up.

I also think that pretty much whatever happens with reid Dawson Rose papley Cameron Tippet Rohan Buddy Cunningham our forward line is going to continue to get the job done. We have a lot of natural improvement from our young players and youth to youth to inject in that improves out defence and midfield. I think we will be stronger all over the park than last season. I'm sure the dogs and GWS will be too, Adelaide as well. But it will be one of those 4 that wins it, and I'm gonna back us in because I friggin love those swannies.

On Galaxy Nexus using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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cadsky said:
On the other hand, I heard JOM is blowing them up.
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The Suns will not be happy if JOM stars in 2017.

Get on our JPK for the Brownlow. He'll have a massive season 2017 as new skip. But yes, about as replaceable as Mummy at GWS.

Agree North's offer of $1Mill a season to Heeney seems outlandish. Anyway the kid's re-signed now. For once the Go-Home-Factor worked in our favour!
 
Grongey said:
Agree North's offer of $1Mill a season to Heeney seems outlandish. Anyway the kid's re-signed now. For once the Go-Home-Factor worked in our favour!
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Kill the academies!
 
Vin Rogue said:
I reckon Miggs's logic is just a smidge better. I feel so bloody down and out each time we fail in the big dance that losing a wad would just be another bruise too many. I understand the double high that you had in '05 and '12, but after '14, I was almost inconsolable. Having a plan ( like valium) to ride out the lows is quite appealing. I'd back the other mob every grannie we ever made, if it meant that we won each time.
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I had money on the Fairytales this year on GF day, so that me and my mate had drinking money to wash away the pain should we not get the result we wanted. It didn't make it any less painful to see us lose, but at least it meant we had plenty of cash to drown the sorrows in!
 
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mcs095 said:
I had money on the Fairytales this year on GF day, so that me and my mate had drinking money to wash away the pain should we not get the result we wanted. It didn't make it any less painful to see us lose, but at least it meant we had plenty of cash to drown the sorrows in!
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I see the logic and it does have appeal. I hope we get to another grannie soon so that I can back the other mob. ( Weird...... totally weird.......but I get it.)
 
I find it hard to judge just where we will be at next year. One on side, you can argue some of our key players are a year older (Buddy, tippo, Kennedy, Grundy for example) , we have lost a very good midfield accumulator and clearance king in Mitchell, and we are still a relatively inexperienced side in a lot of ways, with some gaps to fill.

However, on the other hand you can argue that we have 2 gun midfielders in the making in Mills and Heeney who haven't yet played much senior footy in the midfield (we all saw what Heeney could do in the 2016 finals when given some time in there) ready to replace Mitchell, we seem to have recruited well in terms of drafting players to plug gaps in our list, and we have a lot of very good younger players that will only get better from here, and a solid core at or close to the peak of their overall powers.

BloodySwan said:
I feel good about next season. Best defense in the league, strong depth in midfield and one of the best forwards in the history of the game with strong support. We always talk about the individuals pulling the team but the truth of the matter is Horse has the Swans very well run these days and when one man steps down another slots straight in.

Top 4 minimum, anything less is a failure.
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This probably sums up my view of where we should be hoping 2017 goes. But who knows what is around the corner.

GWS are going to be clear pre-season flag favourites - they have incredible depth, a scarily deep list of top quality talent, and whenever they lose players to trades, they just get brand new spanking top quality model draftees to replace them. But they are heavily reliant on the fortunes of Mummy, and I agree that it seems unlikely he will have such a great run with injury in 2017 as he did in 2016.

I think the Fairytales will come back to the pack next year - emotions play a big part in sport, and the let down can bee hard - see Leicester City for an example in that space. While they will still be tough to beat, especially if they get more dream runs with the green maggots, I just think they'll come back to the pack a bit.

I'm not sold on Geelong either- the 3rd man up rule will hurt them as their starting rucks aren't world beaters, and they are so reliant on Duckwood and Dangerfield. West Coast will miss Nic Nat badly, Crows will go alright but I still question their midfield grunt, Hawks will hopefully go a bit backwards (though they are too well run to go too far backwards sadly) and we know lol@norf will go backwards (wooden spooners please!). There are some up and comers - Melbourne and St Kilda who I think can make the eight but are unlikely to challenge seriously for the flag, but I can't see anyone else outside of the eight really making a huge impression next year, though they might make the finals. But there are always some surprises that pop up every year, and the lottery created by the pre-finals bye will mean anyone in the eight could genuinely win the flag, even if during the regular season they were well behind the top teams.

If the Swans build on this season and use what happened on that day that should not be mentioned as motivation, there is no reason we can't be there at the pointy end of the season. Of course we need luck along the way with injuries and the like, but I have a good feeling in general about 2017. I can't wait to see Heeney and Mills continue to develop, to see further improvement in a bevy of younger/less experienced players like Aliir, Papley, and to see what impact people like Newman, Dawson and maybe even Cameron can have if given an opportunity. And then of course there is our old guard that just keeps on keeping on. There is so much to love about our club and where it is headed both on and off the field - I have a feeling that 2017 is going to be another great year for our club.


Added to all that, I'll be travelling overseas in September so will miss our entire finals series should we make it. So the strongest evidence I have in support of a view that we will the flag is that, after having the ecstasy of my first live grand final in 2012 tempered by being in attendance in '14 and '16, I won't be there to see the boys lift the Cup in '17 - I'll have to be satisfied with watching it from afar in St Petersburg (at the beginning of my honeymoon!).

Bring on 2017 and carn you mighty Swannies!!!
 

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At the start of 2016 I felt that our side was too young and experienced to challenge in 2016 but would be a chance in 2017. They definitely proved me wrong in 2016 and with that experience under our belts we should be poised to give it a shake again. Key players for me are Aliir and Reid. If Aliir can continue his improvement and Reid can stay on the park then it gives our team another dimension to the one that played in the GF.
Continued development of Heeney, Jones and Mills is important and I hope we can find another back flanker in either Newman or O'Riordan to step up to give us some run from the back. I really think this could be O'Riordan's year and to see him providing some rebound alongside Aliir is something I'm really looking forward to. Naismith should continue to develop into one of the best rucks in the game. His performance in the GF, particularly early, was underrated.
We will continue to rely on consistent performances from our core group and hope for a good injury run and anything is possible.
 
elastic said:
At the start of 2016 I felt that our side was too young and experienced to challenge in 2016 but would be a chance in 2017. They definitely proved me wrong in 2016 and with that experience under our belts we should be poised to give it a shake again. Key players for me are Aliir and Reid. If Aliir can continue his improvement and Reid can stay on the park then it gives our team another dimension to the one that played in the GF.
Continued development of Heeney, Jones and Mills is important and I hope we can find another back flanker in either Newman or O'Riordan to step up to give us some run from the back. I really think this could be O'Riordan's year and to see him providing some rebound alongside Aliir is something I'm really looking forward to. Naismith should continue to develop into one of the best rucks in the game. His performance in the GF, particularly early, was underrated.
We will continue to rely on consistent performances from our core group and hope for a good injury run and anything is possible.
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It will be interesting to watch O'Riordan's 2017 season. His 2016 was very solid until that awful injury. Hopefully he comes back well. I'm sure Newman, if he has a good pre-season, will be first in line for a seniors spot, but O'Riordan could definitely get towards pushing for a senior spot at some stage.
 
Grongey said:
GWS lose Whitfield for 6 months to suspension, not an easy type to replace
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I don't understand the point of a 6mths suspension... Why isn't it 26 games? Does being suspended mean he can't practice or play with any AFL team or is it just at AFL level?
 

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