As someone who considers himself pro-worker and is naturally suspicious of corporations, it wouldn't particularly bother me if Folau won his case. What will help him a touch is a reverse onus of proof applies - IOW, the ARU needs to positively discharge the assumption that their termination of Folau was due to his religious beliefs. There is also no contention that Folau can't perform the inherent requirements of his job due to his religious beliefs.
That said, I think that the ARU should be able to discharge such a burden in this case. The stated reason for Folau's termination was that he breached the ARU's code of conduct by making inflammatory comments. They seem to have had reasonable grounds for thinking that there was in fact a breach. That someone was sacked for breaching a code of conduct, and that breach was caused by making inflammatory comments that were inspired by their religious beliefs, does not mean that they were sacked because of their religion. To extend the analogy further, Folau could have been sacked for (say) making inflammatory comments about white people, and those comments might have been inspired by him (say) being an Islander, but that doesn't mean he was sacked because he was an Islander.
I do think that if Folau sued the ARU for wrongful termination/repudiation, rather than unlawful termination under the FWA, that he would be more likely to win damages. A breach of the ARU's code of conduct does not necessarily amount to a contractual breach, never mind one that justifies termination of the contract.
That said, I think that the ARU should be able to discharge such a burden in this case. The stated reason for Folau's termination was that he breached the ARU's code of conduct by making inflammatory comments. They seem to have had reasonable grounds for thinking that there was in fact a breach. That someone was sacked for breaching a code of conduct, and that breach was caused by making inflammatory comments that were inspired by their religious beliefs, does not mean that they were sacked because of their religion. To extend the analogy further, Folau could have been sacked for (say) making inflammatory comments about white people, and those comments might have been inspired by him (say) being an Islander, but that doesn't mean he was sacked because he was an Islander.
I do think that if Folau sued the ARU for wrongful termination/repudiation, rather than unlawful termination under the FWA, that he would be more likely to win damages. A breach of the ARU's code of conduct does not necessarily amount to a contractual breach, never mind one that justifies termination of the contract.