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floodbuster

floodbuster

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Hey people, i like dabbling on the foreign exchange markets so I thought I'd put my predictions before they happen just for fun.

In no way are these to be taken as gospel as I have no inside word just my own experience's.
 
The US reserve will announce the interest rate movement in 25 mins and is expected to raise them which is good for the currency but the initial movement will be down for the greenback against all the majors.

Surprisingly the rates stayed the same but the US dollar still collapsed so that's still a win.
 
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floodbuster said:
The US reserve will announce the interest rate movement in 25 mins and is expected to raise them which is good for the currency but the initial movement will be down for the greenback against all the majors.

Surprisingly the rates stayed the same but the US dollar still collapsed so that's still a win.
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The US will not be raising rates any time soon... They are already in a massive trade deficit, job numbers are not good enough and inflation is no where near their 2% target... Gold and silver rallying, lets see if it is sustained. An interest rate rise would strengthen the USD and obliterate their GDP and goals of the reserve bank for 2% inflation and job growth. The state of the world economy is also weighing heavily on the US.
 

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The Emu said:
The US will not be raising rates any time soon... They are already in a massive trade deficit, job numbers are not good enough and inflation is no where near their 2% target... Gold and silver rallying, lets see if it is sustained. An interest rate rise would strengthen the USD and obliterate their GDP and goals of the reserve bank for 2% inflation and job growth. The state of the world economy is also weighing heavily on the US.
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Yes, it certainly panned out that way.

The markets changed their expectation just before the announcement to 'no change' which is what caused them to dive and the AUD seems to have benefited from this as yesterday Aussie rates were left on hold yet the AUD climbed higher (now 2 cents up since the American announcement).
 
ash_1050 said:
For those of us not following the daily forex markets are you able to make an additional post 24 hours after the prediction showing what happened to the market?
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The AUD has kept moving up and is now at over 72 US cents. The thing about this is the rates have been left on hold and the AUD went down since it has been on this downward trend since April 2013 but this time it flew up (almost 2 whole cents).

Conversely the USD has weakened since their rates were left on hold the other week because it was expected they would raise a little but didn't.

Even against currencies like the GBP & Kiwi (that have performed well against the USD in the last couple of weeks) the Aussie has continued to rise so we might have seen the trough as it can be expected that the Aussie has been oversold. Yes the AUD has been lower but only in 2008 when the GFC first unfolded and also 2001 at the height of the US tech boom but we are not experiencing anything as drastic as that.

One more thing that might also help was the free trade agreement announced by Turnbull yesterday as it might tell the markets that Australia doesn't just have to rely on resources.
 
Cheers, I meant something more like when you say "20 mins till the Aus retail sales. Aussie to go down against the USD and JPY" that you list the current rates and then a follow up post 24 hours later with the new rates. A reflection on the prediction as such.
 
ash_1050 said:
Cheers, I meant something more like when you say "20 mins till the Aus retail sales. Aussie to go down against the USD and JPY" that you list the current rates and then a follow up post 24 hours later with the new rates. A reflection on the prediction as such.
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OK, just keep in mind my strategy is to base it on price action leading up to the event, placing an order and once the quick movement happens then get out of there quickly (scalping) as to not be exposed to the market for too long as it can go in any which direction after about half an hour.

As you might know an interest rate, Unemployment and GDP announcement can yield hundreds of pips in a matter of minutes between all the pairs.
 
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28 minutes until the English interest rates decision and it looks like the pound will fall.


EDIT. The pound did fall, I've closed off for a 100 pip profit.

I do believe the pound will keep falling especially against the Aussie, but that's not my strategy because the longer you stay exposed to the market the more chance it throws you a curve ball.
 
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The AUD is moving higher currently against the USD and has made new higher high's on the daily which indicates a definite change in trend.
 
floodbuster said:
The AUD is moving higher currently against the USD and has made new higher high's on the daily which indicates a definite change in trend.
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Are you just commenting on the market or investing. If it's the latter, Maybe mention what your plays are. Otherwise it's kind of like people on the punting board who say what they bet I after the race..
 
Deliverance said:
Are you just commenting on the market or investing. If it's the latter, Maybe mention what your plays are. Otherwise it's kind of like people on the punting board who say what they bet I after the race..
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I'm making a prediction (based on price action) 30 minutes before a high volatility announcement (GDP, unemployment figures and interest rates). These announcements can be found on any online forex calendar.

Any that I put on this site are one's that I'm sure of but I do make other trades on things like CPI and Retail sales and am only in the trade for no longer than 30 minutes as once things settle down the markets revert back to their usual erratic selves.

For instance the AUD interest rate decision movement was not clear this week so I didn't put it up but the GBP interest decision was so that's why I put it up, and once the pips were made I pull out quickly and forget about it after all at up to $80 per pip is still a good little earner.

For instance next week there is only 2 opportunities with the GBP & AUD unemployment figures.
 

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Canadian interest rate decision in 15 minutes (12.30) Adelaide time,
I'm going to sell the USD against the CAD.
 
I didn't get the CAD right yesterday although the signs weren't there but I still took a stab at it because it was the interest rates announcement which is about as big as it gets.
I suspect everyone is waiting for the Euro interest rate announcement tonight.
 
floodbuster said:
I didn't get the CAD right yesterday although the signs weren't there but I still took a stab at it because it was the interest rates announcement which is about as big as it gets.
I suspect everyone is waiting for the Euro interest rate announcement tonight.
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Thanks for the follow up, it makes things much easier to follow :thumbsu:
 
In 3 and a half hours time the Australian interest rate decision comes out and already the AUS is being bought against all the other currencies, this could be a big one.

If it is a big one then the sell off should start about an hour before the decision in a small way culminating in a big fall when the news comes through, if that does happen then the AUS could lose about 2 cents over the next 24 hrs.

I'll wait till half an hour before confirming my thoughts and possibly placing a trade against all the pairings (even the NZD).
 
So with 30 minutes to go I expect the AUD to fall across all the major's (just not as much as I hoped) but still a good fall against the USD, GBP, CHF, CAD and EUR.
 
I've been a bit quiet on the fx front lately because over the last couple of mths the signals have been all over the place (this really is an uncertain time).
But in about 3 hours the EUR interest rate decision comes out and it's all pointing towards a big jump (2 cents) for the currency.
 

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