Free Agency Compensation Formula

[Rourke]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html

1. Starts with the annual base payment that the player has been offered by the new club. Performance bonuses etc don't count.
2. Rank that as a percentile against all current players aged 25 or older. A score of 80 means that the salary is higher than 80% of players.
3. Add points for the player's age. 12 points for 25yo, 10 for 26yo, down to 2 for 30yo.
4. Map that score to a compensation pick. Score over 95 means 1st round pick. 85-95 is end of first round. Over 70 gives second-round, over 50 end of second round.

Not too bad a system from what I can see, except for leaving out length of contract "except as a tie-breaker" whatever that means. In step four a small difference in score can mean either nothing, or a big boost in draft order. Another reason to go to a draft points system ...

Also we can bet there will be a lot more manipulation now the formula is public.

 

[Snake_Baker]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html

1. Starts with the annual base payment that the player has been offered by the new club. Performance bonuses etc don't count.
2. Rank that as a percentile against all current players. A score of 80 means that the salary is higher than 80% of players.
3. Add points for the player's age. 12 points for 25yo, 10 for 26yo, down to 2 for 30yo.
4. Map that score to a compensation pick. Score over 95 means 1st round pick. 85-95 is end of first round. Over 70 gives second-round, over 50 end of second round.

Not too bad a system from what I can see, except for leaving out length of contract "except as a tie-breaker" whatever that means. In step four a small difference in score can mean either nothing, or a big boost in draft order. Another reason to go to a draft points system ...

Also we can bet there will be a lot more manipulation now the formula is public.

Nice data.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Also we can bet there will be a lot more manipulation now the formula is public.

Manipulation = controversy
Controversy = Headlines
Headlines = Stuff for Niall to write about.

4D Chess from Jake.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html

1. Starts with the annual base payment that the player has been offered by the new club. Performance bonuses etc don't count.
2. Rank that as a percentile against all current players. A score of 80 means that the salary is higher than 80% of players.
3. Add points for the player's age. 12 points for 25yo, 10 for 26yo, down to 2 for 30yo.
4. Map that score to a compensation pick. Score over 95 means 1st round pick. 85-95 is end of first round. Over 70 gives second-round, over 50 end of second round.

Not too bad a system from what I can see, except for leaving out length of contract "except as a tie-breaker" whatever that means. In step four a small difference in score can mean either nothing, or a big boost in draft order. Another reason to go to a draft points system ...

Also we can bet there will be a lot more manipulation now the formula is public.

Based on that formula, there's no way Melbourne would have got pick 3 for Frawley.

Would Brisbane have got an end-of-first round pick for Rockliff? Would Geelong have got one for Motlop?

I haven't done any sums but it sounds like you'll only get a first-round compensation pick if the player is on huge money.

 

[00VicWard001]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html

1. Starts with the annual base payment that the player has been offered by the new club. Performance bonuses etc don't count.
2. Rank that as a percentile against all current players. A score of 80 means that the salary is higher than 80% of players.
3. Add points for the player's age. 12 points for 25yo, 10 for 26yo, down to 2 for 30yo.
4. Map that score to a compensation pick. Score over 95 means 1st round pick. 85-95 is end of first round. Over 70 gives second-round, over 50 end of second round.

Not too bad a system from what I can see, except for leaving out length of contract "except as a tie-breaker" whatever that means. In step four a small difference in score can mean either nothing, or a big boost in draft order. Another reason to go to a draft points system ...

Also we can bet there will be a lot more manipulation now the formula is public.

Far more concise explanation than the article. Thank you.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Based on that formula, there's no way Melbourne would have got pick 3 for Frawley.

This is the post-Frawley formula.

 

[Anja_Nees]

 

[Obeanie1]

Based on that formula, there's no way Melbourne would have got pick 3 for Frawley.

Would Brisbane have got an end-of-first round pick for Rockliff? Would Geelong have got one for Motlop?

I haven't done any sums but it sounds like you'll only get a first-round compensation pick if the player is on huge money.

Say the contract is higher than 85% of the players in the comp and you are 25yrs old the score would be 97 = 1st round pick.

So a 25 yr old getting a base of 750k for at least two years.

Does that sound about right?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Say the contract is higher than 85% of the players in the comp and you are 25yrs old the score would be 97 = 1st round pick.

So a 25 yr old getting a base of 750k for at least two years.

Does that sound about right?

I can't answer that honestly without seeing a pyramid.

 

[liz]

Another reason to go to a draft points system ...

Or to just abolish priority picks altogether.

 

[Obeanie1]

I can't answer that honestly without seeing a pyramid.

The only thing we need to know is the pay grades makeup of all AFL players. And today its been released on the AFL site which is quite convenient.

In 2017 48 players earned more than $700k which is 6.8%.

So if say Gaff were to seek a fa move for $700k pa base pay for a min of two years and he is 26 he would be ranked with a score of at least 90 + 10 points as a 26 yr old = 100 points = 1st round pick after our allotted pick. So around pick 10 if we finished 9th.

 

[iBeng]

Probably would have dropped us to a bloody Second Rounder...

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The only thing we need to know is the pay grades makeup of all AFL players. And today its been released on the AFL site which is quite convenient.

In 2017 48 players earned more than $700k which is 6.8%.

So if say Gaff were to seek a fa move for $700k pa base pay for a min of two years and he is 26 he would be ranked with a score of at least 90 + 10 points as a 26 yr old = 100 points = 1st round pick after our allotted pick. So around pick 10 if we finished 9th.

Yeah, right. I'm surprised there's such a small percentage on 700k or more. That works out to be 2-3 per team. I thought there might be more.

In light of that, is anyone going to be willing to make Gaff one of their three best-paid players. WC shouldn't. He likely wouldn't even be top five. I imagine Naitanui, Kennedy, Yeo, Shuey and McGovern (should he sign a new deal) would all be getting more.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

This is the post-Frawley formula.

What was the formula for the Frawley compensation?

"Melbourne are shit so let's find a way to give them pick 3."

 

[Dr Tigris]

So that makes it very clear how to satisfy specific criteria to ensure clubs are happy.

You can plan for a specific salary package to get the club losing a player a really good pick. So, e.g., you can pay big $ for the first 2 years then it drops and the other club gets a first rounder. So the club losing a player can get good compo and thus not match and force a trade. That is, clubs can collaborate to ensure that both win out of the player movement - at the expense of moving clubs down the draft one pick. Can't see this being influential in any deals from here on in.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

What was the formula for the Frawley compensation?

"Melbourne are shit so let's find a way to give them pick 3."

File under Executive Discretion.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

File under Executive Discretion.

Like when Barry Hall punched Matt Maguire 80 metres off the ball in a PF, but it was judged "in play" so he could play the 2005 GF?



I'd love to hear the AFL explain that one 13 years down the line.

 

[Orange Agent]

I cant believe they go to all the trouble of breaking it down into a points form yet continue to use where a clubs draft pick is to determine where the compo falls. To me this is the biggest flaw in the system yet they are using a method which would make it easily avoidable, just match the compo formula score to actual drafts positions and problem fixed.

 

[Obeanie1]

I cant believe they go to all the trouble of breaking it down into a points form yet continue to use where a clubs draft pick is to determine where the compo falls. To me this is the biggest flaw in the system yet they are using a method which would make it easily avoidable, just match the compo formula score to actual drafts positions and problem fixed.

Thats to do with equalisation. To balance the ledger when free agents leave for successful clubs or those in the top eight. Gives clubs down the ladder a little more opportunity to improve.

Saying that Franklin landing the Hawks pick 19 was a joke.

 

[HairyO]

Noone believes the crap about there being an actual formula, do they???

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Noone believes the crap about there being an actual formula, do they???

You forgot your tin foil hat...

 

[Bender571]

According to footywire there will be 334 players over the age of 25 as of October 5th 2018 (I used this date because I think it's when the free agency period will begin). A club by club breakdown of the 334 shows, Adeliade 22, Brisbane 15, Carlton 17, Collingwood 23, Essendon 20, Freo 18, GWS 21, Geelong 21, GC 15, Hawks 20, Dees 16, North 15, Port 20, Richmond 19*, Saints 16, Sydney 18*, WC 20, and Dogs 18. Griffiths and Tippett weren't counted.

The bare minimum for Band 1 would be a 25 year old getting paid in the top 17% and then getting a 12 point bonus for their age. Top 17% is the top 56 players aged over 25. Hopefully this chart makes sense.

A point of interest is that the initial draftees from GWS turn 25 this year and could potentially push up the salary cutoffs. Players such as Patton, Coniglio, Tyson, Haynes, Tomlinson, Green, Adams, Smith, Shiel, Cameron, Treloar

Most information is taken from or extrapolated from these two articles
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-