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BuddysBiggestFan said:
So when markets closed yesterday I was my market value was in profit by $2500, went down about $800 for the day. This morning it has opened at only $300 profit. Where’s all my money gone? I’m using Commsec.
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I would assume that the opening price this morning was less than the closing price yesterday for enough of your holdings.

During the day they base the up/down changes on the opening price that morning, not the closing price the day before.

Could that be it?
 

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ash_1050 said:
Regarding the RAC cap raise it's a defensive manoeuvre to sure up the balance sheet and prevent a lowball takeover offer from being accepted.
Bill Garner and MoF still hold millions of shares between them and have demonstrated that they're only interested in cashing out and banking the profit.

By doing a cap raise that limits all shareholders to a maximum purchase of 10k shares it limits the ability of these two players to buy and flip shares, and dilutes their holdings by 6% which means they've got less say if/when a lowball offer comes in 2022.

Additionally management are aware that retail investors are more inclined to hold longer term, which is good news for the share price in the medium term, less so short term while the market swings over the next 3 weeks.

Also having an extra $30m in the bank allows them to expedite the heart safety trials, run a stack more trials and reject lowball offers because they can wait it out. The board aren't worried about the share price now, they're thinking 12 months down the line on how the company can be best positioned to maximise value.
I'm all in on RAC already, so trying to find another $30k in 3 weeks will be like getting blood out of a stone but I'll do my best to make it happen, as the potential for Zantrene as an FTO inhibitor and heart safety agent is truly once in a generation.

TLDR: RAC cap raise was artfully done to prevent people buying and flipping discounted stocks
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With this cap raise, are sophisticated investors still eligible for more than $30K allocation?
 
NonPhixion said:
With this cap raise, are sophisticated investors still eligible for more than $30K allocation?
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Nope, it's max $30k for everyone including sophs.

RAC have said if there's a shortfall they may go to institutions (presumably Merchant Opportunity Fund), but it's a flat $30k otherwise.

Side note I'll be taking up the full $30k allocation, as now the logic of the cap raise has been established it makes complete sense.
 
Falchoon said:
I hold and have it set to accumulate, I have no funds to accumulate but it's a good setting!

I bought last month at 12c on the handle

I love a good cup and handle, but it's stalled a touch on low volume.


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ash_1050 said:
Nope, it's max $30k for everyone including sophs.

RAC have said if there's a shortfall they may go to institutions (presumably Merchant Opportunity Fund), but it's a flat $30k otherwise.

Side note I'll be taking up the full $30k allocation, as now the logic of the cap raise has been established it makes complete sense.
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I'm not sure where my $30k is coming from but RNU will be part of it - it dropped below my stop
 
Kram said:
Markets and oil spanked on virus fears again..
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Yep, had been a reasonable week prior to that. My portfolio had hit an ATH Wednesday/Thursday. We'll see how it plays out over the longer terms I guess. Like before.
 
US market got smashed overnight, and the futures are looking dreadful.

I think Monday will be a very bad day for the ASX. Hold on tight, could be messy.
 
Now for another episode of DaRick's Stock Market Misadventures:

Sorry for not posting recently - a brief summary of what I've been doing over the past 6 weeks or thereabouts:
- Last week I increased the amount of money I had in the AOK ETF to $1,250 - because it's skewed towards bonds instead of stocks.

- I sold some of my investment in the Vanguard Growth Index Fund, for the opposite reasons.

- I've increased my investments in UUP, USD and USDU, so currency investments now make up over 7% of my investments (albeit my metrics indicated that they were overbought so I bought relatively little) - that means I've broken my previous rule of not having it above 5%, but I still wouldn't invest more than 10% in currency because of high ETF expenses + low yield - also investments in currency are by nature speculative and I would be wary of speculating too much - it tends to end badly due to brokerage fees and speculating /= investing.

- In late October, when RBA stupidity sent bond yields through the roof, I took the opportunity to buy a large amount of bonds, to the point where Australian bonds (mostly government/Treasury) make up over 10% of my investments - I also think this has increased the probability of an AUS recession down the track because the government will see that as a sign of impending inflation and print less money in the form of stimulus, which IMO will be badly needed as iron ore/coal futures go down and people's livelihoods are ravaged by intermittent bursts of COVID.

- I sold some of my EMKT/ETHI/NDQ/HLTH investments because 1) the metrics I used suggested that they were overbought or close to it, 2) I expect emerging markets to fare quite poorly going forward, 3) the other ETF's are growth ETF's of variable quality, so I expect them to go down some. HLTH would go down less than the others because healthcare stocks are defensive.

- I sold some of my WRLD investments because my metrics indicated that it was overbought.

- I purchased NextEra Energy (NEE) and Telstra (TLS) some weeks ago. The former is a utilities company, and Telstra is obviously an old-school telco. Although the latter is known for being incompetently managed, its legacy infrastructure still grants it a competitive advantage (NEE also has a wide moat as per Warren Buffett). Besides, utilities and telcos do better when yields decline, which I think will happen in both the US and AUS. Plus both are relatively stable companies and NEE has a renewables element which appeals to my inner greenie. NEE's sales also come entirely from the US, so it should benefit from a rising US dollar.

- I sold my shares in Walmart (WMT) due to a poorer outlook than expected, but retained my investments in KR/VRTX/HZNP. All three receive most of their income from the US and so should benefit from a rising US dollar, KR is a consumer staple and the other two are healthcare stocks, all of which have competitive advantages (moats) to varying degrees and are considered to be relatively stable. Indeed, Warren Buffett particularly likes KR. HZNP is the diciest investment, but it is considered to be a min vol stock with some competitive advantage, so I can live with it. In this climate I won't be buying any more shares, but I'll take profits if I can.

That said, VRTX and HZNP are biotech stocks - those are industries of the future, so I plan to invest in those two companies for at least 5 years.

- I've increased my investment in long-term (20+ year) government bonds, because those tend to perform well during bear markets. Similarly, I have purchased $500 in both YMAX and UMAX (covered call ETF's), because I expect both the ASX & the S&P500 to perform quite poorly over the next 6-12 months. ASX will get ravaged because declining yields will undermine its financial institutions (particularly the overpriced CBA) and the commodities crash will take care of the miners. RE the S&P 500, Morgan Stanley expects a decline of 20%; JPMorgan expects a decline of 45% (!). My feel is that the former is much more likely, but neither is good. Also, covered call ETF's reduce volatility, and in this environment reducing volatility as much as possible is vital. The ASX is quite volatile as it is due to its periodic commodity booms and busts. Covered call ETF's are expensive though, so invest in them sparingly.

Currently, I have $52000 invested:
Asset Allocation - 5%
Currency - 7.15%
Stable Fixed Income (Gov/High Qual Corporate Bonds) - 32%
Unstable Fixed Income (Junk Bonds) - 2.5%
REIT - 2.5%
Infrastructure - 7.5%
Emerging Equity - 2.5%
Int. Developed Equity - 33.15%
Domestic Equity - 7.7%

I've basically gone and slightly modified David Swensen's formula by having no less than 2.5% in any given asset class but also no more than 35%. I've avoided investing directly in commodities entirely. Their risk-return ratio has historically been poor, they don't provide dividends or interest, and I expect that they'll perform dismally going forward. My portfolio very much is deflationary/disinflationary (with high % of investments in bonds/infrastructure/healthcare/consumer staples/utilities/telcos), with only 3.5% of my investments being in individual stocks (reflecting my lack of confidence that your average stock will fare very well).

EDIT: I've invested around 55% in stocks and 45% in income, which is very conservative for an early-30's something and suggests an impending bear market, not helped by intermittent COVID outbreaks undermining investor confidence.

My factor tilt for stocks now consists of eleven factors:
- ESG (more growth-oriented, but not necessarily quality)
- MCap (less volatile than equal weight)
- Moat (gives access to diverse range of companies with competitive advantages)
- Dividend (to increase yield and provide steady income)
- Covered Call (to maximise income during volatile/bear markets)
- Equal Weight (more volatile than MCap/Covered Call, but performs better in bull markets)
- Quality (persistent outperformance under most conditions)
- Size (outperforms during inflationary/rising yield bull markets; point of difference from other categories)
- Value (outperforms during inflationary/rising yield bull markets; effective contrast to ESG/Covered Call and to a lesser extent quality/size)
- Momentum (included as part of multi-factor funds)
- Min Vol (to reduce volatility)

I do select by sector - some of my healthcare investments are more defensive (IXJ); others are more growth-oriented (HLTH) for diversification. I invest sparingly in individual countries (besides Australia and the US due to the latter's sheer size) - it often doesn't work, and I've only retained my investment in Switzerland (EWL) because of its low volatility.

My performance in October was poor (around bottom 30%), but this month it's been in the top 20% according to SelfWealth. Shows how volatile the market is, really.
 
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Kram said:
Futures look ok atm but will be interesting to see how the US trades.
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The US market in general did very well, but I suspect that much of that was down to FANG/GAMMA.

Most shares actually underperform the market, and two of my US shares (HZNP/KR) underperformed badly while the other two (NEE/VRTX) overperformed. On the whole, my US accounts badly underperformed because I'm expecting a bear market - probably investors BTFD.

Same deal with the ASX. My portfolio is underperforming today, but Telstra (ha!) is overperforming the market.
 
The head of Moderna has come out and said his vaccine is likely useless against the new variant.
Wonder if this will trigger some fear tomorrow morning and we will see another bit of a dip on opening.
 
The fact people cant see through that statement is a sign of just how far society has fallen

Pharma CEO says "buy more vaccines please" and people panic. Just how ******* dumb is the average person?!
 
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