Hypothetically Speaking....

[musha_13]

If we do have to play the Eagles in perth two weeks in a row (round 22 + 1st week of the finals) would it be a smart idea to maybe stay there for a week so there isn't to many plane trips. I'm sure the club has the money to do this and if replacements are needed then they can be flown over like in a normal situation.

Your thoughts.

 

[Mong]

Nah, it's only 3 hours on a plane.

The Perth teams (or Brisbane) never do it when they have 2 away games in a row. We never do it when we have games in Melbourne.

I think the effects of travel to Perth is overrated. It's not that long to sit on a plane.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Nah, it's only 3 hours on a plane.

The Perth teams (or Brisbane) never do it when they have 2 away games in a row. We never do it when we have games in Melbourne.

I think the effects of travel to Perth is overrated. It's not that long to sit on a plane.[/QUOTE]

I disagree. Stats show that it is easily the toughest trip in football. I read somewhere that after a Perth trip, 83% of games the following week are lost
- now that can't be just coincidence. I don't think the game in Perth is the problem, WC apart, it's the game the week after that seems to be the real issue.

 

[Damp Squarie]

We could do a Blighty and team bond in W.A..... while we await our second clash.
There is something in the travel factor as stats have shown.

 

[Mong]

I believe it is a myth.

Last year the record of away teams to Perth the following round was 14 wins and 7 losses.

And of course, the most obvious gaping hole in that whole argument is that every West Coast or Fremantle home game has followed an away game by them to the other side of the country. So they've just faced that lengthy travel the week before yet manage to win at a very impressive rate at home. How can they have such a great home record when the travel the week before is apparently so debilitating?

If there was any logic to it, West Coast and Freo would struggle at home far more than they do.

 

[Leaping Lindner]

Brisbane did in 1995. They were down to play Fremantle one week and The Eagles the next. IIRC they got walloped by Freo but then "pushed" The Eagles the following week (who were higher up the ladder than Freo).

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I believe it is a myth.

Last year the record of away teams to Perth the following round was 14 wins and 7 losses.

And of course, the most obvious gaping hole in that whole argument is that every West Coast or Fremantle home game has followed an away game by them to the other side of the country. So they've just faced that lengthy travel the week before yet manage to win at a very impressive rate at home. How can they have such a great home record when the travel the week before is apparently so debilitating?

If there was any logic to it, West Coast and Freo would struggle at home far more than they do.

If it's not an issue then why was Adelaide so p*ssed off to be playing yet another round 22 game in Perth? Why do teams request not to have to travel to Perth, and definitely not to have 2 trips? If you don't think it's an issue then you know sweet fa about footy my friend.

 

[Mong]

If you don't think it's an issue then you know sweet fa about footy my friend.

I didn't say travel is not an issue. I just said it's not such a big issue that it requires a team to spend a whole week in Perth. But the thing I was discussing with you was the issue about the reduced performance the week after, which I believe is a non issue and as I showed above has no statistical basis.

Malcolm Blight never made an issue about travelling. He then guided a team that played 4 consecutive away finals (5 games including round 22?) to Premiership glory.

Make an issue out of it, and it will probably become one.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I didn't say travel is not an issue. I just said it's not such a big issue that it requires a team to spend a whole week in Perth. But the thing I was discussing with you was the issue about the reduced performance the week after, which I believe is a non issue and as I showed above has no statistical evidence.

Malcolm Blight never made an issue about travelling. He then guided a team that played 4 consecutive away finals (5 games including round 22?) to Premiership glory.

Make an issue out of it, and it will probably become one.

I'm sure I recently read somewhere that the rate was 83%. I'll look into it when I get a chance.

 

[Mong]

I'm sure I recently read somewhere that the rate was 83%. I'll look into it when I get a chance.

Yeah but did you understand where I was coming from with regards to Freo and West Coast's performances after a road trip? My point is you can't just produce stats on this subject and ignore the two most prolific travellers over that distance.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

If we do have to play the Eagles in perth two weeks in a row (round 22 + 1st week of the finals) would it be a smart idea to maybe stay there for a week so there isn't to many plane trips. I'm sure the club has the money to do this and if replacements are needed then they can be flown over like in a normal situation.

Your thoughts.

Good idea was thinking the same thing myself

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Yeah but did you understand where I was coming from with regards to Freo and West Coast's performances after a road trip? My point is you can't just produce stats on this subject and ignore the two most prolific travellers over that distance.

I don't know where I got the 83% figure from probably Rucci. I checked out 2002 and it was about 50/50. My bad However, i'm sure most teams would rather not have to travel to Perth if they can, especially in week 22.

 

[ignoranus]

It was Rucci and also rubbish.

He didnt say over what period that occurred. Presumably he just looked for the peiod that gave the worst stats. As **** points out, if you go off last year's stats it appears to be an advantage if you play in Perth the week before.

I strongly suspect if you were to calculate the odds over a long enough period it would not be statistically different from 50%. (in other words, no effect). Hey I might even do that...

 

[ignoranus]

OK I have sorted out the games won and lost by teams the week after returning from Perth since Freo have been in the competition. These results exclude finals.

These are the results

year played won next week
**** ***** ***********
1995 20 12
1996 19 11
1997 19 13
1998 19 12 (plus 1 draw)
1999 19 8
2000 19 12
2001 19 9
2002 19 10
2003 20 2
2004 19 13
2005 11 6

total 108 games won out of 202 one week after non WA teams play in Perth (excluding the draw). This is 53% games won following up from going to Perth. So it is just an urban myth that teams tend to lose backing up from Perth trips.

Rucci clearly took his figures from the one bad year (2003). Talk about biased estimates!

He even sucked me in. I posted in another thread how it was bad to come 4th after reading his Advertiser article last week. But ****'s comments made me realise there was something weird going on...

I'd actually expect the win ratio to be greater than 50% since teams usually have home games after going to Perth. If one ignores 2003 when something unusual happened the win ratio increases to 58%. This is hardly scarey stuff!

So Rucci, if you are reading this, get your act together and stop printing garbage statistics! People might believe you!

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

OK I have sorted out the games won and lost by teams the week after returning from Perth since Freo have been in the competition. These results exclude finals.

These are the results

year played won next week
**** ***** ***********
1995 20 12
1996 19 11
1997 19 13
1998 19 12 (plus 1 draw)
1999 19 8
2000 19 12
2001 19 9
2002 19 10
2003 20 2
2004 19 13
2005 11 6

total 108 games won out of 202 one week after non WA teams play in Perth (excluding the draw). This is 53% games won following up from going to Perth. So it is just an urban myth that teams tend to lose backing up from Perth trips.

Rucci clearly took his figures from the one bad year (2003). Talk about biased estimates!

He even sucked me in. I posted in another thread how it was bad to come 4th after reading his Advertiser article last week. But ****'s comments made me realise there was something weird going on...

I'd actually expect the win ratio to be greater than 50% since teams usually have home games after going to Perth. If one ignores 2003 when something unusual happened the win ratio increases to 58%. This is hardly scarey stuff!

So Rucci, if you are reading this, get your act together and stop printing garbage statistics! People might believe you!

Good work Igno. Jeez when you think about that it is a pretty p*ss poor effort from SA's Chief Football writer - sa footy fans deserve better.

 

[GoSarge]

OK I have sorted out the games won and lost by teams the week after returning from Perth since Freo have been in the competition. These results exclude finals.

These are the results

year played won next week
**** ***** ***********
1995 20 12
1996 19 11
1997 19 13
1998 19 12 (plus 1 draw)
1999 19 8
2000 19 12
2001 19 9
2002 19 10
2003 20 2
2004 19 13
2005 11 6

total 108 games won out of 202 one week after non WA teams play in Perth (excluding the draw). This is 53% games won following up from going to Perth. So it is just an urban myth that teams tend to lose backing up from Perth trips.

Rucci clearly took his figures from the one bad year (2003). Talk about biased estimates!

He even sucked me in. I posted in another thread how it was bad to come 4th after reading his Advertiser article last week. But ****'s comments made me realise there was something weird going on...

I'd actually expect the win ratio to be greater than 50% since teams usually have home games after going to Perth. If one ignores 2003 when something unusual happened the win ratio increases to 58%. This is hardly scarey stuff!

So Rucci, if you are reading this, get your act together and stop printing garbage statistics! People might believe you!

I see your point and the stats back it up, but if we had the option of a 1 hour flight to Melbourne and a 3 hour trip to Perth, then obviously we would pick the former. The fact is you want every little advantage leading in to the first week of the finals and the obvious programming bias (all 10 Victorian clubs in Melbourne in round 22) sees us going to Perth in round 22 for the third time in 6 years. Ridiculous.

 

[snakebite01]

I think the major problem with the trip back from Perth is if you play on a 6-day break. That really screws a team up, which is why I presume we're lobbying to get atleast a 7-day break in round 22.

If you lookn at the times we've played following a Perth trip in finals:

1998, played WC Saturday night, played Melbourne AWAY saturday afternoon the week later (virtual 6-day break) - lost by 8 goals

2001 - played Freo saturday night, played Carlton AWAY saturday afternoon the week later (virtual 6-day break) - lost by 11 goals

2002 - played Freo on the sunday afternoon, played Brisbane AWAY saturday night the week later (virtual 6-day break) - 12 goal loss

The problem is playing either on a 6-day break or playing on a 6 1/2 day break but also playing away the following week. It is almost the equivalent to having a 5-day break between games, as the Perth trip back, plus the further trip away the next week rules out 1-2 days recovery, which just completely takes it out of the players.

 

[marvin]

If we do have to play the Eagles in perth two weeks in a row (round 22 + 1st week of the finals) would it be a smart idea to maybe stay there for a week so there isn't to many plane trips. I'm sure the club has the money to do this and if replacements are needed then they can be flown over like in a normal situation.

Your thoughts.

I guess the downside of this is that you'd imagine the training would be relatively low key (maintenance rather than fitness building) coming into week 1 of the finals, and there's only so many team meetings you can have. That leaves the players with a lot of thumb twiddling time on the far side of the country, away from wives, girlfriends, children, business interests, studies, family etc. Boredom, frustration, loneliness - all potential downsides.

To break the usual routine of away games (fly in, stay a night, play, fly home) coming in to the finals when it's worked reasonably well this year (4-3 on the road to date) also seems risky.

 

[ignoranus]

If you lookn at the times we've played following a Perth trip in finals:

1998, played WC Saturday night, played Melbourne AWAY saturday afternoon the week later (virtual 6-day break) - lost by 8 goals

2001 - played Freo saturday night, played Carlton AWAY saturday afternoon the week later (virtual 6-day break) - lost by 11 goals

2002 - played Freo on the sunday afternoon, played Brisbane AWAY saturday night the week later (virtual 6-day break) - 12 goal loss

On each of those occassions Adelaide played a team above them on the ladder away from home. Such games are always tough to win. I doubt the Perth travel the week before had anything to do with it. If I get the time later I might check to see if the number of days break between Perth and game next week makes any difference over all teams since 1995.

I only recall it being an issue amongst the football writers etc recently (since 2003?). Of course the club admins want to do everything they can for their team so if it is perceived as an issue they'll try and do something about it. But the case is certainly being grossly overstated in the media.

 

[snakebite01]

On each of those occassions Adelaide played a team above them on the ladder away from home. Such games are always tough to win. I doubt the Perth travel the week before had anything to do with it. If I get the time later I might check to see if the number of days break between Perth and game next week makes any difference over all teams since 1995.

It's not just that we lost, it's that we got blasted off the park in all 3. In the case of '98, we came back to beat teams ranked 1,2 and 3 in the following finals away from home, which IMO is more than just a coincidental turnaround of form.

 

[baaaallllll]

We will just have to beat them in R22 to finish second on the ladder so we don't have to play them in the first final.

 

[ignoranus]

This is insufficient data to draw any statistical information from. The statistical evidence from the home and away seasons suggests there is NO disadvantage to playing in Perth the week before. Just because AFC lost 3 games (which they were underdogs for each time anyway) is no reason to blame prior Perth trips. The evidence just isnt there.

Statistics is based on large numbers of observations. 202 is enough to draw trends from. 3 isnt.

The Advertiser today again makes its claim about teams winning 17% of matches returning from Perth. Its one thing to have an opinion about why AFC lost those 3 games but another thing entirely to repeatedly publish false statistics related to the matter which will no doubt get much of SA up in arms based on misinformation.

 

[theorangeapple]

the biggest problem with staying over is the players getting bored and their mind will wonder. a week is along time away from friends, home comforts, family etc.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

I didn't say travel is not an issue. I just said it's not such a big issue that it requires a team to spend a whole week in Perth. But the thing I was discussing with you was the issue about the reduced performance the week after, which I believe is a non issue and as I showed above has no statistical basis.

Malcolm Blight never made an issue about travelling. He then guided a team that played 4 consecutive away finals (5 games including round 22?) to Premiership glory.

Make an issue out of it, and it will probably become one.

I for one am worried about week 22 in Perth

The last 3 times we have played in Perth R22 has resulted in the following the next week

98 QF Vs Melb SMASHED
01 EF Vs Car SMASHED
02 QF Vs Bris SMASHED

All 3 of the above were awy goames though. It is an outrage that one team hsa been drawn to play in Perth in R22 in 4 out of 8 years

 

[birdmanptr]

If we do have to play the Eagles in perth two weeks in a row (round 22 + 1st week of the finals) would it be a smart idea to maybe stay there for a week so there isn't to many plane trips. I'm sure the club has the money to do this and if replacements are needed then they can be flown over like in a normal situation.

Your thoughts.

only if we can take our training facilities with us