Jetta Or The Win?

[Merv]

First off this thread is not an "I told you so" thread.

Last year prior to the Carlton game i made a thread stating that although Carlton were CLEARLY my most hated club in the AFL i was would be hoping they beat us, in that late season game.

Of course i was howled down by the majority of posters, with some more vocal/insulting than others, but had a few that agreed

My thoughts at the time were that we had many players we needed to get rid of, which most have been now, and we needed new exciting players into our club.

Some of the less insulting replies made a good point about the young players learning about winning and developing a winning feeling.
They argued that there would be more benifits in us winning in the long term and that the priority pick might turn out to be no good anyway.

Fair points for sure.

So here we are about 7 months down the track and we now know that the priority pick was Leroy Jetta.

I still think gaining the priority selection was a far better option long term, even if we were tanking to get it.

What about you?

 

[Smokin]

huh?

Even if we did beat em, all things would have remained the same.

the real question is Gibbs v Gumbleton, ie if they had of rolled us, we get the spoon, and Gibbs as opposed to Gumby.

 

[Merv]

huh?

Even if we did beat em, all things would have remained the same.

the real question is Gibbs v Gumbleton, ie if they had of rolled us, we get the spoon, and Gibbs as opposed to Gumby.

It comes down to how many games you win if you get the priority pick or not.
If you win, 4 or more you lose it.

The spoon was another option in there also, but from memory, there was at least one more game after that game, we played the doggies i think.
So we could have beaten Carlton, lost the priority and still not won the spoon i think.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Priority Pick >>>>>>> An extra win or two last year.

 

[hulld]

huh?

Even if we did beat em, all things would have remained the same.

the real question is Gibbs v Gumbleton, ie if they had of rolled us, we get the spoon, and Gibbs as opposed to Gumby.

if we hadn't received a priority pick we would have still got jetta, but we wouldn't have got hislop. hislop will be a superstar in the years to come.

i think we would have taken gibbs if we had the first pick although he hasn't done anything yet that makes me wish that we finished 16th. also if we picked a midfielder with our first pick we probably wouldn't have picked up both hislop and houli.

i am very happy that we picked gumby as it's not every day you get the chance to draft a nick reiwoldt.

 

[Darealrath]

It's what sucks about the AFL draft system. I'm still very happy/relieved we didn't get the spoon but the extra pick could mean a lot down the track.

 

[Merv]

if we hadn't received a priority pick we would have still got jetta, but we wouldn't have got hislop. hislop will be a superstar in the years to come.

i think we would have taken gibbs if we had the first pick although he hasn't done anything yet that makes me wish that we finished 16th. also if we picked a midfielder with our first pick we probably wouldn't have picked up both hislop and houli.

i am very happy that we picked gumby as it's not every day you get the chance to draft a nick reiwoldt.

That's incorrect.

If we beat Carlton, they would still have had the priority pick.
It is common knowledge they were very keen on Jetta, but thought we were going to take a ruckman, so chose Hampson i think it was.

So they would have had pick 1,18 19, we would have had 2,20

 

[Smokin]

I thought 4 wins still gets you a priority pick, but 4 and a draw doesnt?

 

[hulld]

i think that they would have taken grigg ahead of jetta. if not i stand to be corrected.

 

[Funkalicous]

No, Carlton would've taken Jetta. They even said, they wanted Hampson, then Jetta, then Grigg.

So avoiding the pp would've cost you Jetta for sure.

 

[Merv]

I thought 4 wins still gets you a priority pick, but 4 and a draw doesnt?

Yes that's right.
If we beat Carlton that was 4 wins and still had 1 more game to play.

Clubs winning no more than four games in a season from next year will
be eligible for a priority pick taken after the completion of the
first round of the national draft. If the club has successive poor
years of no more than 16 points in each of those seasons — not
averaged over the course of those seasons — the priority pick will be
taken, as it is now, before the national draft.

 

[hulld]

No, Carlton would've taken Jetta. They even said, they wanted Hampson, then Jetta, then Grigg.

So avoiding the pp would've cost you Jetta for sure.

well than, it's lucky we had the pp

 

[Smokin]

thought so.

So really, it made no difference.

But, IF it would have, for sure I would take the priority over the win. An AFL teams future is built on picks these days.

 

[Daytripper]

Jetta hasn't even played yet.
Lets assess it in a few years time.

I remember people raving about Kepler when he first started.

Draft picks are the most over-valued commodity in football.

 

[Daytripper]

thought so.

An AFL teams future is built on picks these days.

Crap.
Refer Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans.

They seem to be going all right.

Haven't seen St Kilda or Hawthorn win any flags yet either.

 

[Smokin]

Draft picks are the most over-valued commodity in football.

How so?

 

[hulld]

surely you would prefer having jetta than winning one more game last season daytripper???

 

[Merv]

Crap.
Refer Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans.

They seem to be going all right.

Haven't seen St Kilda or Hawthorn win any flags yet either.

And where did Adelaide and Sydney get their players from?
They drafted them.
Getting early picks doesn't guarantee you sucess, but it lets you pick the players you actually want, rather than whats left.
Whether you pick the right players or not is the real ussue.

Sure the Saints have not won a flag yet, but they have made a few prelims and come very close to getting in the grand final.

The hawks players are still quite young, but imo they are on the way up

 

[Smokin]

Crap.
Refer Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans.

They were largely built prior to the draft being "mastered" if you like. Its evident that since 2001-2ish, not many stars are found down the list.

But, how do you propose teams get players then? Nobody trades anymore. Rookie list?

 

[Daytripper]

How so?

Because their value usually outweighs what the players ability is actually like.

Would you trade Kepler Bradley for pick 6 in next years draft now ?
Would Hawthorn trade Roughhead for pick 2 ?
Would Richmond trade Tambling for pick 5 ?

Of course they all would.
And these aren't isolated examples

Over the past 5 years I can only think of a couple of players who are now worth more then their original draft pick.
You would want more than pick 3 for Ryan Griffin or Chris Judd.
And more than pick 5 for Franklin or Brock McLean.

Of course we need a draft. How else would teams get players ?

However the over-emphasis on what position your pick is in relation to how good the player actually is gets a bit ridiculous at times.

BTW, I was one of those who wanted to pick Jetta over Gumbleton so not having a go at the kid.

 

[hulld]

there is a huge difference between who you get at pick 2 or 3 and who you get at 13 or 14. surely this illustrates how important the top draft picks are.

 

[Daytripper]

there is a huge difference between who you get at pick 2 or 3 and who you get at 13 or 14. surely this illustrates how important the top draft picks are.

Really ?

2002
Pick 2 - Daniel Wells
Pick 3 - Jared Brennan
Pick 13 - Byron Schammer
Pick 14 - Daniel Bell

I'd nearly give that to the teens.

2003
Pick 2 - Andrew Walker
Pick 3 - Colin Sylvia
Pick 13 - Brent Stanton
Pick 14 - Fergus Watts

Little to no difference with Stanton clearky the best of that lot

2004
Pick 2 - Jarryd Roughhead
Pcik 3 - Ryan Griffin
Pick 13 - Matthew Bate
Pick 14 - Angus Monfries

Griffin the clear standout however IMO both Bate and Monfries have shown more than Roughead.

2005
Pick 2 - Dale Thomas
Pick 3 - Xavier Ellis
Pick 13 - Shannon Hurn
Pick 14 - Grant Burchill

Burchill is the best of that lot and Hurn got a few games in the best mid-field in the league last season.
Advantage the teens.

 

[Smokin]

Because their value usually outweighs what the players ability is actually like.

Would you trade Kepler Bradley for pick 6 in next years draft now ?
Would Hawthorn trade Roughhead for pick 2 ?
Would Richmond trade Tambling for pick 5 ?

I understand what your saying, and I agree that the hype of the pick is not comparable to the ability - it simply cant be, because over a decade, one would expect 10 "judd like" players - simply doesnt happen. The history of the game tells us there are rarely more than 2-3-4 ultra elite players of that level in a given decade.

But, you can compare what you did in the above. You can only relate it to who you missed out on, because no draft is equal.

Sure, Bradley hasnt been a great pick 6, but was Tenace a great pick 7 in that year? Clarke a great 8? I say Bradley has more potentional at this stage than them.

Pick are only relative to those around them.

Roughhead and Tambling went in the same draft, what if Hawthorn picked up Tambling at 2 instead? Then Roughhead would have looked like a great miss.

You cant expect Hawthorn to have picked up a Judd at #2 in that draft, because West Coast got Judd at #3 in his draft.

You can only try to get the best available at a given time, if they work out great, but there are no guarantees. The way to do this is to have as many higher picks than the next bloke.

At the end of the day, half the key is being lucky enough to be near the botton in those great drafts (how history sees those drafts, not at the time). For example the Eagles being able to get Judd at 3, party because of his shoulders, but partly because of other players too.

It looks like we were blessed in what many are calling a super draft, perhaps best ever. If in 10 years history also confirms this, we can probably expect a flag or 2 somewhere down the line.

Which was what I was getting at - that extra priority pick was huge, because not only was it a good pick, it was an "extra" first round pick, in what was considered a massive draft.

 

[hulld]

Really ?

2002
Pick 2 - Daniel Wells
Pick 3 - Jared Brennan
Pick 13 - Byron Schammer
Pick 14 - Daniel Bell

I'd nearly give that to the teens.

2003
Pick 2 - Andrew Walker
Pick 3 - Colin Sylvia
Pick 13 - Brent Stanton
Pick 14 - Fergus Watts

Little to no difference with Stanton clearky the best of that lot

2004
Pick 2 - Jarryd Roughhead
Pcik 3 - Ryan Griffin
Pick 13 - Matthew Bate
Pick 14 - Angus Monfries

Griffin the clear standout however IMO both Bate and Monfries have shown more than Roughead.

2005
Pick 2 - Dale Thomas
Pick 3 - Xavier Ellis
Pick 13 - Shannon Hurn
Pick 14 - Grant Burchill

Burchill is the best of that lot and Hurn got a few games in the best mid-field in the league last season.
Advantage the teens.

schammer hasn't done anything special and bell is no better than brennan

fergus watts is a hack

bate hasn't done anymore than roughhead has. griffen is a freak

xavier ellis will end up being the best of the 2005 bunch

2006
2 - Scott Gumbleton
3 - Lachlan Hansen
13 - Jack Riewoldt
14 - James Sellar

i know which two i would prefer

 

[Daytripper]

Smokin,
Good post.

Look my point is that the worth of a draft pick is usually massively devalued after only one season or more.

Another example.
Say we finish 15th and have the 2nd pick.

Collingwood offer us Dale Thomas for that pick.
Would you go for it ?

Most would say no and thats not a slight on Thomas who I think is a very good player.
So after only one season the worth of that pick has already been reduced even though that player is better than average.

To me a winning culture is far more important than draft picks.

Let the losing clubs rebuild via draft picks. Its never proven to be successful and all it does in my opinion is give the supporters of those clubs something to talk about in the off-season.