Massive Month

[soyouthink10]

The next month is such an important month for the NMFC.

In the past we have let go of wonderful opportunties. Sunday's game scares me a little with no Petrie, Ziebel and Adams. We must win to consolidate all our hard work of the past month. If we let it slip and lose to a team on the ropes like Richmond it will be most disappointing.

Then we have 2 games they should be on the 'easier' side, that we must win.

I think we can beat Essendon on current form, However, we must keep that form going for the next 3 weeks so we go into that game on that form level.

3/4 will be the pass mark in the next month
4/4 will be the pass mark if we are really coming of age

 

[astrovic]

I'm still nervous about Melbourne and the Dogs! We seem to struggle in matches that we are expected to win - other than round 2 against GWS, we've either lost (Port and Dogs) or had an insipid win (GCS x2, Brisbane). Plus those kinds of losses/poor wins are confidence and morale sappers and have knock on effects (Hawthorn).

Both Melbourne and the Dogs have shown at stages that if you take your foot off their throat for just a second, they can still get you - but keep the foot on and they wilt. We cannot afford to continue to struggle with going in clear favorites.

Yep, massive month. Massive 7 weeks. I'm counting on the fact that this group of guys are cut from North Melbourne cloth - they may have let themselves get knocked to the canvas, and they've pulled it together, stood back up and are not going to let it happen again.

Go Roos.

 

[ArjenTheGreat]

Just get through this week... we need to be at our resilient best to get the job done as the Tiges will throw the kitchen sink at us.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Huge.

We simply need to win the next three and maintain the current level of performance.

 

[liam_13]

Richmond (MCG), Melbourne, Doggies, Essendon (all Etihad)
On paper, we should be 3/4 from the next month. I question whether we have the maturity from the younger heads to guide us through it, especially if Adams/Petrie miss a couple and with no Ziebell, our young leader, who is out for all 4.

Richmond - 6-7/10 chance to win, but never know, with the pressure of the 8 looming and the Tigers redemption. Would still classify this as a danger game.

If we play like we did against Carlton and St Kilda, the Dogs and the Demons won't get near us.

Dogs can not kick a goal to save themselves, they are averaging 7.8 or something in the last month, and seeings as our defence is our weakness we really shouldn't be worried by them. Also averaging 60 point losses in the last month. Honestly, if we lose to these guys, we don't deserve to be playing finals/

I think we've improved as a team and the Demons have gone backwards (plus no Clark, Moloney, Jamar, Davey when we verse them), and we beat them easily last year, so don't think we will have any trouble.

Essendon - Essendon is a chance for a win, albeit slight chance. Just so we don't get too excited, count this as a loss.

Then you have the next games after the month, such as
Collingwood -Pies will hopefully not be 100% otherwise their ability to cause turnovers and their foot skills will absolutely murder us. I'm talking another 100 point murder. We still turn it over far too much and don't have a well structured team defence, both the Pies will thrive on. Hoping for a 5-7 goal loss here.

Freo @ Etihad should be one of the more interesting games of the season. Really. Even if neither team is in the top 8 come this game, it will be the match of the round, just to see how it plays out. The team with all out attack vs the team with all out defence.
Despite it being Freo, this is a danger game, Ross Lyon has them 3/4 from Melbourne or something ridiculous this year, wins over Richmond @ MCG and Saints @ Etihad included. Don't get too excited from last years belting of them at Etihad, they had like 23 fit players to choose from...
Big danger game.

GWS we will win.

So there, on paper and in terms if I was a betting man:
3 absolute certainties
2 8 point games games (Freo, Richmond)
2 expected losses.

The top 3 and bottom 2 take us to 11-9.

With Geelong, St Kilda and Freo all also fighting for those bottom 2 spots, we need to win both imo and if we don't get flogged by the Pies, our percentage increase from the GWS/Demons games should mean 13 and 115% is top 8.

Win just one and we are up against it.

Lose both and hello tenth.

 

[Event Horizon]

It is also important that those who come into the side bring the hunger with them. It's been a hard side to break into lately, and people who will get their chance this week need to realise that they are lucky to be in this position, and must take thair chance. We simply can't afford any passengers, given the importance of players we are losing for the Richmond game.

We have to hit them hard, and not wait for them to do the same, and then try to respond. We are the form team, and they are the ones with doubts. The first quarter will either return all the confidence to them, or create further doubt. We can certainly win this without the three blokes who may miss, but we need others to step up. Our trio of talls have done well, with one of them playing a quiet one every week. This week both Taz and Lachie need to fire, as whoever comes in, won't carry the side in the manner of Drew. It's up to these two blokes to play their role.

Cunners must play in the middle, and play well, as has already been said in other threads.

And Basti must really step up and cover for Patch. I feel it's up to him, more than anyone else to do that, as he has the talent, can play a similar role, and has the biggest upside, despite having an ordinary few weeks.

Richmond game is the key - make no mistake about that.

 

[Only Forwards]

What this has shown me is that we are not certainties in any game. The Port game showed me this, while I believe that we have turned a corner so to speak we are only as good as our next game and anything beyond that does not bear thinking about.

Absolute focus is required for this week. There have been 3 major influences on how we will go into this game.
1) The tigers loss, they will set them selves to roll us. Make no mistake they will want revenge they will come out breathing fire and they aint gonna give up. We need a solid 4 quarters of footy to counter this.

2) The loss of Jack two sides to this it will hamper us, but it should also solidify the us against them mentality we have had of late. Cunners will come in for him, first up after a spell to want want his best game is a tall order (not saying he can't/won't deliver just that its a fair amount of pressure).

3) The injured Patch and Drew, if they play will they be underdone or risk further injury? if they don't play, can Cruize and Pedo(the replacements I assume) fill the void?

My perspective is there are no guaranteed wins, but on the flip side I don't write us off for any of the remaining rounds.

 

[soyouthink10]

Huge.

We simply need to win the next three and maintain the current level of performance.

I totally agree. I am more nervous this week than last week.

 

[soyouthink10]

What this has shown me is that we are not certainties in any game. The Port game showed me this, while I believe that we have turned a corner so to speak we are only as good as our next game and anything beyond that does not bear thinking about.

Absolute focus is required for this week. There have been 3 major influences on how we will go into this game.
1) The tigers loss, they will set them selves to roll us. Make no mistake they will want revenge they will come out breathing fire and they aint gonna give up. We need a solid 4 quarters of footy to counter this.

2) The loss of Jack two sides to this it will hamper us, but it should also solidify the us against them mentality we have had of late. Cunners will come in for him, first up after a spell to want want his best game is a tall order (not saying he can't/won't deliver just that its a fair amount of pressure).

3) The injured Patch and Drew, if they play will they be underdone or risk further injury? if they don't play, can Cruize and Pedo(the replacements I assume) fill the void?

My perspective is there are no guaranteed wins, but on the flip side I don't write us off for any of the remaining rounds.

I agree, i would even go further to say rushing people back under an injury cloud rarely works. And it restricts someone else who is fit and ready to go that spot.

I would suggest anyone under an injury cloud be completely rested, not just for the re-injury factor but also the team needs fully fit players.

 

[Event Horizon]

I agree, i would even go further to say rushing people back under an injury cloud rarely works. And it restricts someone else who is fit and ready to go that spot.

I would suggest anyone under an injury cloud be completely rested, not just for the re-injury factor but also the team needs fully fit players.

While that's correct in theory, you have to remember that after 15 games, very few blokes would be absolutely fit and not carrying something. Depending on the chances of making it worse, it's arguably better to have a 80% fit Petrie, than Pedersen out there, for example.

 

[soyouthink10]

While that's correct in theory, you have to remember that after 15 games, very few blokes would be absolutely fit and not carrying something. Depending on the chances of making it worse, it's arguably better to have a 80% fit Petrie, than Pedersen out there, for example.

 

[Gasometer]

I am predicting RD 22 will be a fight to the death.

 

[Only Forwards]

All individual injuries would need to be judged on their merits

Different injuries to different players have differing potential to cause further injury.

My take on Patch's arm is that structurally it is the same now as it was before the Blues game except there is brusing inside the joint. Given no structural damage it is likely that he has faced games in a similar position to this through out the year (perhaps not quite as bruised)

Drew is different, its clear that this is something that is new. We were cautious in approach, scans are clear of structural damage. It surely will come down to how much risk of further injury he is at as to whether he plays or not.

I would be very surprised if there were many AFL footballers that were running around at 100%. Most will be managing injury in one form or another.

 

[Event Horizon]

I did say, depending on chances of aggrevating the injury. Not every injury can get worse by playing. I remember Carey carried the abductor injury for a long period. If the doctor deems that it can't get any worse, but would only get back to 100% in, say, 6 weeks - what do you do? And it's silly comparing hamstrings to abductor. Very different cattle of fish.

And don't forget, we have the best groin specialist in the land. I trust his decision 100%.

 

[Event Horizon]

All individual injuries would need to be judged on their merits

Different injuries to different players have differing potential to cause further injury.

My take on Patch's arm is that structurally it is the same now as it was before the Blues game except there is brusing inside the joint. Given no structural damage it is likely that he has faced games in a similar position to this through out the year (perhaps not quite as bruised)

Drew is different, its clear that this is something that is new. We were cautious in approach, scans are clear of structural damage. It surely will come down to how much risk of further injury he is at as to whether he plays or not.

I would be very surprised if there were many AFL footballers that were running around at 100%. Most will be managing injury in one form or another.

100% agree with all of the above.

 

[ozzyoslo]

I'm still nervous about Melbourne and the Dogs! We seem to struggle in matches that we are expected to win - other than round 2 against GWS, we've either lost (Port and Dogs) or had an insipid win (GCS x2, Brisbane). Plus those kinds of losses/poor wins are confidence and morale sappers and have knock on effects (Hawthorn).

Both Melbourne and the Dogs have shown at stages that if you take your foot off their throat for just a second, they can still get you - but keep the foot on and they wilt. We cannot afford to continue to struggle with going in clear favorites.

Yep, massive month. Massive 7 weeks. I'm counting on the fact that this group of guys are cut from North Melbourne cloth - they may have let themselves get knocked to the canvas, and they've pulled it together, stood back up and are not going to let it happen again.

Go Roos.

i know where youre coming from but at this stage......the cue goes in the rack and games are pumped into kids.........I dare not use the Tank word.

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

Wrapped we are back in contention. Over the nerves but.

Liam and Basti need to lift now. Add a Cunners who will fight for his right and we can keep this momentum train going.

 

[winalotroos]

Do we know how bad Petrie is ?
What chance is he off playing, and I think Adams will miss one week, Cunners come in for Jack but who come in for Patch.

 

[ozzyoslo]

Wrapped we are back in contention. Over the nerves but.

Liam and Basti need to lift now. Add a Cunners who will fight for his right and we can keep this momentum train going.

Time to change your signature!!

 

[TheKanga]

I just did the ladder predictor and this was the ladder come the end of round 23.

1. Sydney - 18-4
2. Collingwood - 18-4
3. Adelaide - 17-5
4. Hawthorn - 16-6
5. West Coast - 16-6
6. North Melbourne - 13-9
7. Essendon - 13-9
8. Geelong - 13-9
9. St Kilda - 12-10
10. Richmond - 12-10
11. Fremantle - 11-11
12. Brisbane - 9-13
13. Carlton - 8-14
14. Port Adelaide - 7-15
15. Western Bulldogs - 6-16
16. Gold Coast - 4-18
17. Melbourne - 3-19
18. GWS - 2-20
---

This is with North losing to Richmond this week (I hope not!) by around 12pts.
Also losing to Collingwood by around 12pts despite a spirited Jack Ziebell performance.
Beating Essendon by around 12pts
Beating Bulldogs & Melbourne by around 60pts
Beating Fremantle by around 30pts
Beating GWS by around 100pts

Key Points for North:

Freo lose one they should win against Port at AAMI.
St Kilda lose against Sydney this weekend.
St Kilda get flogged by 60pts by Collingwood in Round 19. (Which gets their percentage down)
Despite coming off two wins against North & Carlton, Richmond lose to Brisbane at the Gabba by 30pts.
Carlton only win one more game this year, against Gold Coast in Round 22.
Essendon lose their last two games of the H&A season, therefore slumping to 7th position.
Freo lose the games they should (on current form)
---
I can see most of this happening, so finals are still alive even if we lose this week.

 

[muttley45]

and gold coasts next 3 wins are going to be against ???????

 

[TheKanga]

and gold coasts next 3 wins are going to be against ???????

Brisbane, Melbourne & GWS

Could be wrong about those though

 

[ozzyoslo]

What this has shown me is that we are not certainties in any game. The Port game showed me this, while I believe that we have turned a corner so to speak we are only as good as our next game and anything beyond that does not bear thinking about.

Absolute focus is required for this week. There have been 3 major influences on how we will go into this game.
1) The tigers loss, they will set them selves to roll us. Make no mistake they will want revenge they will come out breathing fire and they aint gonna give up. We need a solid 4 quarters of footy to counter this.

2) The loss of Jack two sides to this it will hamper us, but it should also solidify the us against them mentality we have had of late. Cunners will come in for him, first up after a spell to want want his best game is a tall order (not saying he can't/won't deliver just that its a fair amount of pressure).

3) The injured Patch and Drew, if they play will they be underdone or risk further injury? if they don't play, can Cruize and Pedo(the replacements I assume) fill the void?

My perspective is there are no guaranteed wins, but on the flip side I don't write us off for any of the remaining rounds.

Really good post, but the thing is, this is what fuels us at this very moment............

 

[The Chiefton]

I'm actually very calm about Sundays game, which has been surprising in the past, but the way this group has been mentally, the last 5 weeks, It'll hold us in good stead against another challenger.

 

[soyouthink10]

I'm actually very calm about Sundays game, which has been surprising in the past, but the way this group has been mentally, the last 5 weeks, It'll hold us in good stead against another challenger.

I was really calm last week against Carlton, deep down from the bottom of my heart thought we would stretch the Blues. so many factors in the Richmond game.

I guess if we are going to be a good team shouldnt matter how 'angry' the opposition is we should be able to counter it. I am more worried about the MCG. So important we play well there to show we can to ourselves and rest of team. Finals are won on the G so important.....also we might scare a few sides if we come out and win by 10 goals again.