Melb.Cup Weights

[sethlad]

So,after the release of Melb Cup weights,the 2 big talking points seem to be:

Vinnie Roe-59 kg, thrown in or crucified?

Magical Miss-52.5, is it enough?

Personally,despite the usual Aus. trainers call for a Royal Commission (thanks Lee),I can't see that it's going to matter because anything over 56 is too much,they don't win with those weights.Likely to run well but 1 or 2 will run better.

As for Magical Miss,she's already got half a kilo more than How Now & Leilani & god knows how much she'll get if she wins at Caulfield on the way?
Also she's a Danehill & despite their ability to get 2400,I can't remember one ever winning at 2 miles.Still,I guess she does have Bart.

What do you think????

Seth.

 

[Danny Chook Fan Club]

59 is plenty. There's no point in trying to entice these horses over and then whacking 10 stone on their back.

Besides, we've seen time and again that European staying is very different from a Melbourne Cup. Most of those Ascot Gold Cup winners haven't seen 23 different horses in their lives, let alone 23 going hell for leather in the same field. The classic European sit-sprint stayer is not suited - the grinder in the Vintage Crop mould is required.

Magical Miss - always hard to line up fillies form into the Spring. Weight for age suggests that she is weighted right to her top, but on bare numbers, 52.5 is pretty well served for her present record.

 

[Fall Out Boy]

Vinnie Roe has become the latest European sacrificial lamb. Given 59kgs just to make the weight scale seem balanced.

Another pathetic effort from the VRC.

After having a close look at the weights, these are the horses i think have been given a few kgs under the odds:

Universal Prince: 56kgs.
Rain Guage: 53.5kgs.
Big Pat: 50kgs.
Lester Thunderwing: 49kgs.


I will be sticking with my favourite horse, Lester Thunderwing. Will win on Saturday, and again in November.
Although i shall wait until about a week before the Cup, the odds won't be any different.

 

[Catman]

The way Magical Miss won the Oaks last year, 3200m will not be a problem.

And with 52.5, you may as well give Bart the cup now.

 

[sethlad]

Was impressive but have serious doubts about what was chasing her that day.
It's also a completely different race,14 mares,at least half of which are a huge distance doubt versus 24 tough stayers in a race that is always run at pace.

She is obviously high class & it has become a top horses race in the last 10 yrs,apart from Brew. Still have that Danehill 2 mile doubt, they just don't get 2 miles. I suppose she could be the exception but I'll pass at those odds.

My Spring starts this week as Helene Vitality resumes in the Craiglee & every double I've had ends in him.Hope to see him show something in the run.

Of the rest, did think Rain Gauge would be better for last years experience.Super run in Sydney at WFA in the Autumn,that's the type of form you need.

Seth.