Non Lions Discussion 2024

[mpal6]

Another goal for Gunners!!

 

[BRAB]

Without Gunston, our form has completely collapsed.

He is truly showing the haters what they were too blind to see.

 

[Elixuh]

We make a grand final with gunners in the team.

As soon as he is gone, we cant win a game and have a 10,000 word analysis piece from the ABC saying our forwards are a worry.

Coincidence?

All the sheep in here called me a madman. But I know talent when I see it, and gunners is elite.

 

[snooplions]

Matt Hills commentating in hawks vs dogs is a breath of fresh air

 

[MSB ROYS]

Irony of Hawks throwing the ball and getting a goal was delicious.

 

[briztoon]

Commentary barracking for the Dogs. Can we ever get a neutral call.

 

[MSB ROYS]

The last quarter in the Dogs/Hawks game has been entertaining. The Bont has been amazing.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Bulldogs are an enigmatic team. Should be a lot better.

 

[mpal6]

Yes Gunners, Yes Hawks !

 

[bungalow_bill]

Dogs losing..

 

[LionsMaw]

Without Gunston, our form has completely collapsed.

He is truly showing the haters what they were too blind to see.

His only good game for us was the Eagles game. Outside of that he was ordinary.

 

[BRAB]

His only good game for us was the Eagles game. Outside of that he was ordinary.

Sorry, didn’t get a chance to reply to you before you copped a red for trolling the suns board.

 

[M Malice]

Teams sitting 1st to 4th on the ladder are playing teams sitting 5th to 8th this round coming up, bolded are home >

Swans 1st v Dockers 6th.
Cats 2nd v Port 7th.
Giants 3rd v Bombers 5th.
Demons 4th v Blues 8th. MCG both home.

We'd want the bottom 4 in the 8 to win if we still think we are a chance for top 4, if not top 4 winning would be better.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Updated seeds after Round 7. Starting to settle down a bit now

#1 - Sydney (up from #2. #3 for attack, #6 for defence)
#2 - Western Bulldogs (down from #1. Still not convinced! #1 for attack, #9 for defence)
#3 - Melbourne (no change. #9 for attack, #2 for defence)
#4 - GWS (first time in the seeds. #4 for attack, #10 for defence)

Port drop back to #5 despite their win over St Kilda. 2nd in attack, 14th in defence.

We have somehow risen to #7! 15th in attack, 3rd in defence. Altho there is very little separating 6th (St Kilda: 16th in attack, 1st in defence) from 14th (Essendon: 7th in attack, 15th in defence) right now. Throw a blanket over them.

The top 4 in attack are all listed above, as are 3 of the top 4 in defence. The other top 4 defensive team is Freo: 12th overall, 14th in attack, 4th in defence.

Updated seeds after Round 8. I think they finally make sense!

#1 - Sydney (no change. #1 in attack - up 2, #6 in defence)
#2 - Melbourne (up 1. #9 in attack, #1 in defence - up 1)
#3 - GWS (up 1. #3 in attack - up 1, #9 in defence - up 1) - GWS have risen mainly because of the Bulldogs' fall
#4 - Geelong (first time in the seeds, despite losing to Melbourne. #6 in attack, #7 in defence)

The Dogs slip to 6th, down 4. #2 in attack (down 1), #15 in defence (down 6).

We are #5 (up 2)! #13 in attack (up 2), #2 in defence (up 1). And we are not far off Geelong in 4th. Altho with our surprisingly high rating comes high expectations - my model is anticipating a low scoring 11 point win over Adelaide (#11 overall, #16 in attack, #4 in defence) on Sunday.

Outside the above teams, Carlton come into the top 4 attacks at #4, but being #17 in defence is weighing down their rating (#8 overall). St Kilda have slipped to #3 in defence (#18 in attack - down 2, #14 overall - down 8!).

 

[M Malice]

Updated seeds after Round 8. I think they finally make sense!

#1 - Sydney (no change. #1 in attack - up 2, #6 in defence)
#2 - Melbourne (up 1. #9 in attack, #1 in defence - up 1)
#3 - GWS (up 1. #3 in attack - up 1, #9 in defence - up 1) - GWS have risen mainly because of the Bulldogs' fall
#4 - Geelong (first time in the seeds, despite losing to Melbourne. #6 in attack, #7 in defence)

The Dogs slip to 6th, down 4. #2 in attack (down 1), #15 in defence (down 6).

We are #5 (up 2)! #13 in attack (up 2), #2 in defence (up 1). And we are not far off Geelong in 4th. Altho with our surprisingly high rating comes high expectations - my model is anticipating a low scoring 11 point win over Adelaide (#11 overall, #16 in attack, #4 in defence) on Sunday.

Outside the above teams, Carlton come into the top 4 attacks at #4, but being #17 in defence is weighing down their rating (#8 overall). St Kilda have slipped to #3 in defence (#18 in attack - down 2, #14 overall - down 8!).

Do your ratings take into account the quality of the opposition G17?

Considering the extremely tough draw we have had our defence being rated that high is encouraging.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Do your ratings take into account the quality of the opposition G17?

Yes - in fact that's the basis of it. My model is unique compared to most (if not all) other models, in that it also reassesses past results, not just a team's "current" rating. For example, my model forecast the Bulldogs to beat Hawthorn by about 12 goals. The fact they lost, not only affects the Dogs' rating (as above), it also affects negatively every team they've already played who haven't also played Hawthorn, just to a lesser extent. So in this case, those teams are West Coast, St Kilda and Fremantle.

As an example, here are how our scorelines have been converted. Think of these like how we would have gone that day against an "average" AFL team:

Brisbane 85 v Carlton 86 ---> 68-54
Brisbane 70 v Fremantle 93 ---> 108-115 (reflecting that Freo have been poor in attack but strong defensively)
Brisbane 72 v Collingwood 92 ---> 67-79
Brisbane 112 v North Melbourne 42 ---> 40-49 (reflecting that North Melbourne so far have been rubbish)
Brisbane 82 v Melbourne 60 ---> 170-55 (reflecting Melbourne's strong defence)
Brisbane 37 v Geelong 63 ---> 41-44
Brisbane 59 v GWS 113 ---> 60-71
Brisbane 79 v Gold Coast 45 ---> 84-46

So adding all that up gives total For of 639 and Against of 513, for an "effective" percentage of 124.4, which right now is good enough for the #5 rating.

By comparison, Geelong's effective percentage is 126.6 while Sydney's is 152.6. The fact that these are relatively close to their actual percentage is a reasonable reflection of their easier draw so far compared to ours.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Carlton have deadset copied our game plan from when we played Melbourne. Chip chip chip ok now go long.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Lucky for Melbourne that Carlton aren't good enough to play well for a prolonged period.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

There needs to be a moratorium on cut-out heads in cheer squad areas - Melbourne's cut-out heads are completely out of control

 

[MSB ROYS]

Lucky for Melbourne that Carlton aren't good enough to play well for a prolonged period.

Also that Melbourne were trying to save the game in the first quarter by going backwards and sideways as their first option.

 

[McIvor]

Leigh is right; the umps literally have NFI what HTB is. Carlton player ran down after taking multiple steps; tackled, doesn’t correctly dispose of it and its play on. That’s what HTB is FFS. FMD this game is so frustrating and it’s due to the moronic umps. Respect my arse.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Leigh is right; the umps literally have NFI what HTB is. Carlton player ran down after taking multiple steps; tackled, doesn’t correctly disputed it and its play on. That’s what HTB is. FMD.

Has been for a long time, but on AFL 360 the umpire interviewed on the Wed show said that it's play on if they make a reasonable attempt.

 

[Dalions]

Has been for a long time, but on AFL 360 the umpire interviewed on the Wed show said that it's play on if they make a reasonable attempt.

Does it say that in the rule book?

 

[McIvor]

Has been for a long time, but on AFL 360 the umpire interviewed on the Wed show said that it's play on if they make a reasonable attempt.

That’s just garbage tho. #4 for Carlton took about 10 steps and is tackled by Neal Bullen and he completely misses it ie doesn’t dispose of it at all other than dropping it and it’s okay on. Cmon, that’s text HTB.

Leigh’s take - https://wwos.nine.com.au/afl/news-2...7KU0M_supKsRPCmxwbJ29b1aIArq1p3S7an8VShykHH6w

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Cripps and Walsh don’t get pinged for anything unless it is absolutely blatant and umps have no choice.