Official Ladder Predictor Thread. - Post your results.

[Call Me Cake]

Okay, first off I want everyone to know that I don't think we'll make finals this year. In fact, I don't even want us to to be honest. I want us to focus on finishing off nicely, so that we can concentrate on being a real threat next year. Get our games into the young ones & build up a team.

I'm more excited about '09 & '10... instead of '08. I've never been optimistic about '08 at all.

Anyway... after making that clear. I still want our boys to finish on a confident spot on the ladder by the end of the year. I'm still interested in where we'll finish, and what games we'll win.

Using the Ladder Predictor on the Essendonfc website...

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/fun_n_games/ladderpredict2008.asp
(Link, for those who haven't been there yet.)

I came up with some interesting results....
Here's a screenshot of the Ladder I ended up with. - (I find this the easiest way) -

http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm207/LightSoda/LADDER-Settings.jpg

As you can see, on my optimism, Essendon finish 7th. How?...
Here's a screenshot of the tipping. -

http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm207/LightSoda/Settings.jpg

Assuming we win both games against Melbourne & West Coast by a large margin... as well as beating the Crows, Bulldogs & Saints by a small margin, this would likely be the case. However... if Brisbane loses the game to the Kangaroos in the Round 18 match, then Essendon will finish 8th. Either way, The Bombers make the 8. Of course, if some things don't go to plan & Essendon loses one game out of the next 5... (Most likely the Bulldogs match) - The Bombers end up in 9th place. Which in my opinion, isn't too bad to finish off a season for a team who could have ended up in the bottom 3. Most of my tips apart from some of the Essendon games seem pretty realistic to me.

Now... how did your prediction go?... - Were you optimistic, or reasonable?

And thinking further ahead, what position do you think Essendon could finish in 2009?... assuming the Bombers have a good run with Injuries? - Just a bit of fun & interest. I've recently found out how much of a drought this board is.

Thanks!

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Geelong 22 21 1 0 2579 1723 149.7 84

Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2430 1935 125.6 72

Western Bulldogs 22 17 4 1 2530 2073 122.1 70

Sydney 22 13 8 1 2125 1833 115.9 54

St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2128 2058 103.4 52

Kangaroos 22 12 9 1 2118 2139 99.0 50

Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2358 2101 112.2 48

Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2043 2017 101.3 44

Essendon 22 11 11 0 2271 2405 94.4 44

Richmond 22 10 11 1 2296 2346 97.9 42

Carlton 22 10 12 0 2208 2299 96.0 40
Brisbane Lions 22 9 13 0 2229 2265 98.4 36
Port Adelaide 22 6 16 0 2077 2291 90.7 24
Fremantle 22 5 17 0 1976 2208 89.5 20
West Coast 22 4 18 0 1742 2530 68.9 16
Melbourne 22 2 20 0 1739 2626 66.2 8

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Only losing to doggies and finishing 9th on percentage, only way we can make it is if we absolutely smash Melbourne, West Coast and Adelaide, I cant see it happening

 

[bomberstomake8]

Only losing to doggies and finishing 9th on percentage, only way we can make it is if we absolutely smash Melbourne, West Coast and Adelaide, I cant see it happening

yeah well to make the 8 we need to win the next 5 games.. even then we have to rely on other teams to lose a bit as well.. we should probably win 4 of the next 5 (although we could quite easily lose the st kilda match in round 22 and i think the west coast match will be hard). it would be a phenomenal effort if we made it but its highly unlikely. lock us in next year though

tbh there are two things i still want frmo this season. gumbelton to play consecutive games and dempsey to get himself back in the best 22

 

[Willow76]

I had us coming 8th but I will be honest boys Im not setting the worlds on fie in tipping this year.

 

[table tennis]

I had us coming 8th but I will be honest boys Im not setting the worlds on fie in tipping this year.

Pos Team P W L D For Agst % Pts
1 Geelong22 21 1 0 2604 1708 152.5 84
2 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2425 1935 125.3 72
3 Western Bulldogs 22 16 5 1 2490 2108 118.1 66
4 Sydney 22 12 9 1 2095 1853 113.1 50
5 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2281 2395 95.2 48
6 Kangaroos 22 11 10 1 2093 2164 96.7 46
7 Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2323 2116 109.8 44
8 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2078 1987 104.6 44
9 Brisbane Lions 22 11 11 0 2254 2230 101.1 44
10 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2078 2103 98.8 44
11 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2246 2386 94.1 42
12 Carlton 22 10 12 0 2218 2294 96.7 40
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2016 2148 93.9 28
14 Port Adelaide 22 7 15 0 2092 2271 92.1 28
15 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1747 2515 69.5 12
16 Melbourne22 3 19 0 1764 2591 68.1 12

TT's Disclaimer
This may be a little biased, okay, maybe very biased, but best case scenario i think would be this. none of my selections were calculated, went on biased gut reaction, without realising the favourable outcomes they obviously have on the bombers.....

 

[Call Me Cake]

Only losing to doggies and finishing 9th on percentage, only way we can make it is if we absolutely smash Melbourne, West Coast and Adelaide, I cant see it happening

Actually, I'd wanna be a little realistic there. You say that as if its a fact. Essendon only need to do well against Melb & West Coast & win small margins against the Crows, Bulldogs & Saints. I'm not an extreme optimist, however I would think the Bombers have the ability to JUST get over the line with these three teams in (Rd 20) (Rd 21) & (Rd 22). I would certainly think the Bombers have a chance to beat Melb & West Coast by a comfortable margin. So I wouldn't be saying your way is the "Only" way... Per-say.

However, putting these possibilities aside. Luck plays a factor as well. You need to take things into account such as ... Injuries, and winnable outcomes... (the fact that 5 wins in a row is needed)... it's possible, but tough.

I can't wait for next year though. That is the year to watch. Anyway, just wanted to give my opinion on that... I appreciate everyones input by the way.

 

[bombre-boy]

I have us finishing 8th and st.kilda 5th, which would mean we play them again in the first week of the finals..

 

[PressureCooker]

Adelaide winning last night made it even harder for us. Still mathmatically possible but would need an even bigger miracle now

 

[table tennis]

Adelaide winning last night made it even harder for us. Still mathmatically possible but would need an even bigger miracle now

Did the ladder predictor again today, and had us finishing 4th. On 13 wins.
two points above sydney in 5th. st.kilda and Richmond finished 9th & 10th.
Like in my previous post. I am a little bit biased.

 

[red+black]

I have us finishing 8th and st.kilda 5th, which would mean we play them again in the first week of the finals..

lol, 2 weeks in a row. that would be cool.

 

[ManWithNoName]

Ladder predictor isn't working properly at the moment. It's factoring in yesterdays results but you still have to input them. Ie it's giving us (And all the other teams who have played so far) 23 games. Have to wait until Monday to use it again.

 

[OzBomber]

I reckon we'll thump West Coast. They're getting smashed by Fremantle so they're team morale will be down again.

It'll be tough to back it up though against Adelaide and then the Bulldogs.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

I've been mucking around with it and basically 4 wins and we play finals definitely. Actually we finished 5th but that's with my rose coloured glasses.

3 wins and we'd need a few results to go our way.

All depends on whether we can keep our players on the park and if Lucas can come back and if Dempsey and Hocking can fill holes over the next few weeks.

 

[bomberstomake8]

I've been mucking around with it and basically 4 wins and we play finals definitely. Actually we finished 5th but that's with my rose coloured glasses.

3 wins and we'd need a few results to go our way.

All depends on whether we can keep our players on the park and if Lucas can come back and if Dempsey and Hocking can fill holes over the next few weeks.

the same thing happens every year though. it looks like the competition is really even and that 11 wins will be enough to make the 8 but i cant remember it actually occuring. 12 wins gets you in the 8, it pretty much happens every year. so we need to win every match to make the 8... unlikely but still possible

 

[mick7]

can't see us losing to west coast at all they are rubbish.

then again that's what i said against melbourne.

 

[Margim]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2463 1729 142.45 76
2 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2356 1877 125.52 72
3 W Bulldogs 22 16 5 1 2463 2085 118.13 66
4 Sydney 22 14 7 1 2102 1771 118.69 58
5 Nth Melb 22 14 7 1 2090 2038 102.55 58
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2069 2011 102.88 52
7 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 2017 1918 105.16 48
8 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2210 2418 91.40 44
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2222 2345 94.75 42
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2203 2162 101.90 40
11 Collingwood 22 9 13 0 2230 2137 104.35 36
12 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2139 2259 94.69 36
13 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 2070 2227 92.95 28
14 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1973 2116 93.24 24
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1777 2540 69.96 12
16 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1705 2456 69.42 12

Ignore the percentage... didn't really guess at scores. On a simple win-loss, I have Bombers in eighth by 2 points, taking into account a loss to the Doggies.


Interstingly, our hypothetical path through the finals would then be...

Week 1: North Melbourne
Week 2: Sydney
Week 3: Bulldogs/Hawthorn

Meaning no Geelong until the Grand Final...




I still don't see us getting into the 8, let alone past the first round of the finals, but the predictors have some interesting results.

 

[daffo]

For some reason i see us dropping two more games. That'll give us 10-12 and just missing the finals.

I remember the thread 'how many games will essendon win for the rest of the year' and most posters saying less then four wins so it proves how well the second half of the year has been.

I said we'd get 6-7 wins and i got flogged.

 

[PressureCooker]

the same thing happens every year though. it looks like the competition is really even and that 11 wins will be enough to make the 8 but i cant remember it actually occuring. 12 wins gets you in the 8, it pretty much happens every year. so we need to win every match to make the 8... unlikely but still possible

The good thing is it is still somewhat in our hands. Win all 4 and we're pretty much definately in. Lose one and we have to rely on others. With Dogs resting players with 3rd spot wrapped up, could make for a very interesting game. Have to get there without a loss first though

 

[daffo]

I remember around 10 years back a team made the finals with 10 wins.

 

[red+black]

how good would it be to beat St Kilda in Round 22 and front up to them again a week later, except this time probably at the MCG. ALthough it would probably be reminicent of us v Richmond in 2001.

I remember around 10 years back a team made the finals with 10 wins.

Brisbane finished 8th in '95 with 10 wins. Melbourne were 1 game back.

Brisbane finished 8th in '97 with 10 wins and a draw. Port in their 1st season missed out on percentage.

 

[bomberstomake8]

HUGE! week next week... massive in terms of finals chances

say we beat west coast which we will need to to make the finals...

collingwood vs st kilda. lets hope the saints win
adeliade vs richmond, lets hope adeliade win
hawthorn vs brisbane- should mark the hawks down for a win here

then the tough one
cartlon vs port. lets hope port win this match

if this all goes as predicted.
then we will be sitting 10th, only down on percentage to the teams in the 8..

 

[PressureCooker]

Freo could shape our finals hopes!
They play Saints, Richmond and Pies in the final 3 weeks. IF they win all 3 and we win all games, we COULD finish above all three.
Any chance of Harves pulling one out of the hat for us?

 

[stugots]

1 Geelong 22 21 1
2 W Bulldogs 22 18 3
3 Hawthorn 22 18 4
4 Sydney 22 12 9
5 Nth Melb 22 12 9
6 St Kilda 22 12 10
7 Collingwood 22 11 11
8 Adelaide 22 11 11
9 Essendon 22 11 11
10 Richmond 22 10 11
11 Bris Lions 22 10 12
12 Carlton 22 9 13
13 Fremantle 22 7 15
14 Port Adel 22 6 16
15 Melbourne 22 3 19
16 West Coast 22 3 19


ive penciled in the bulldogs game as a loss & been very conservative with other results, so seems that unless one of the pies or crows fall over very shortly we are doomed to miss

however beat the doggies & win the rest & almost guaranteed a spot

 

[red+black]

16 West Coast 22 3 19

yes please