Our position in the top 8

[PieLebo87]

Just how secure are we in the top 8 if you look at our for and against scores compared to the other 7 teams?

Take 7 points off, we have had the worst attack in the top 8 so far this season, and taking Kangas out of the equation, we have had one of the worst defences as well. What is going on? There are even teams in the bottom 8 with a better attack and defence than Collingwood!

I've come to the conclusion that some facts can be misleading, I've spent the first half of the season thinking the thumpings GWS and GC have been copping by top 8 sides have mucked up a realistic percentage system, but in hindsight, this isn't the case; Collingwood has just been terrible with their for and against score compared to the other Premiership contenders in 2012.

What is wrong? Why isn't there that fluency and tightness in our machine which has become a trademark over the last 2 seasons?

This thread isn't an opportunity to play the blame game with Bucks, Malthouse, Cloke and injuries. I'd like to know, what is a plausible scenario over the next few weeks, to get us back on track, and a proper chance to win the Premiership.

 

[Visions]

Out of the other top 8 sides we have beaten Adelaide away, WC, Ess, Geelong twice, and haven't played the Kangas or Sydney yet, with our loss only being to Hawthorn twice. Don't think that is a bad stat at all. You only need to win games by a point.

Don't really care about percentage, only care about how we will go against a team like Hawthorn in the finals and keep them down to a gettable score.

 

[mattys123]

Seriously, I don't think we are that far off, and if Cloke plays out the season like we know he can, and we get back at least one of Krak, Caff or Johnson, then I think we can still regain something out of this season and fight till the bitter end in September.

If anything our forward line isn't our biggest concern, when we have won, it has performed sensationally, and even in some games we have lost it has performed about to expectations, the biggest problem seems to be the defense.

Our midfield is holding up in stats (4th in contested possessions, 7th in clearances) but it seems the defense hasn't been able to hold the tide back like it has in the past.

Solution number one is to play Tarrant down back, for mine he's the best defender we have, especially with the problems Reid and Brown are going through, so Taz needs to stay back the majority of the time. But maybe our biggest problem has been the lack of run off half back against the better sides, and more recently against Carlton and Hawthorn. When a side takes Heath Shaw out of the game, we look slow and struggle to move the ball off half back, my solution, move Thomas back there, he's played there before and can play there.

We just need to try a few different things, nothing too major, just a little retweaking and hope that Didak, Caff, Krak and BJ can contribute in the run home.

 

[twaters]

Of the three LTI's I'd take Johnson for that renewed run off half-back, and he may still have some leg fitness remaining. Not sure we should risk Caff or Krak. Then Didak as a FP or supersub, in a couple of weeks.

 

[SuperSub17]

Apparently Krak and Caff are 2 weeks away from VFL and Johnno is 2-3

 

[beez]

What is wrong? Why isn't there that fluency and tightness in our machine which has become a trademark over the last 2 seasons?

While I agree that a team's % is a very good indicator of how successful a team has been/will be over the course of the season there are so many mitigating factors in why we haven't delivered what we should perceivably have so far.

A settled team is by far one of the most important factors in producing the same output week in week out, everyone harps backs to Sydney of 05 where they had something like 1 change in the last 7 weeks of their season.

LTI's occur at every club and we've had our fair share this year, but the 2-3 week injuries that have popped up so often is what I think has really affected our output. Swan, Pendles, Jolly, Shaw, Reid, Tarrant etc have negated the cohesion that is needed. Just look at Essendon and West Coast, they have copped injury after injury and over the last month haven't been able to perform at the level they did earlier in the year. I have no doubt that if by some chance (highly unlikely given our luck this year ) we are able to put the same 22-24 on the park for the last 6 weeks of the home and away season you will see our output improve tremendously and the consistency will be there which has been lacking so much thus far.

Also, expecting the young players (even Elliott and Sinclair who have been tremendous) to give the same level of performance each week can not be expected, they need to be carried by the senior players throughout the 23 rounds, something which hasn't happened as yet.

 

[Mateyman]

I think our record is pretty good. We just haven't killed teams and have lost badly when we have lost. Only 2 games decided by under a kick, so you couldn't say that we have been overly lucky

 

[Tbone McGraw]

For me it is 3 factors. Our injuries which i have not seen like since 2005, our draw which could not have been any harder and the fact that every single side lifts for us. Other sides game against us is their best chance of exposure. Watch gws even lift this weekend.

We will make top 4 and no sides worry me in the 8 except hawks and west coast in Perth, which appears unlikely. We just have to work out how to beat hawks and i am still extremely confident of a flag this year.

Yes i am an massive optimist. I still think cloke will sign with us.

 

[Daics35Marvel]

I think the players don't want to repeat last year, where we put in 100% effort for four quarters most games and then tired late in the season. I can think of several games this year where we built an early lead, took the foot off the pedal, were challenged and then responded. That didn't happen last year. Our game style is physically demanding and other teams that mimic it (Essendon and West Coast) are also showing signs of tiring late in the season.

Geelong showed us that you need to be playing your best football in September and that March to August is about getting into a contending position while managing your workload. Smart move if you ask me.

 

[loki04]

Most premiership sides peak for about a 4-5 year period before they drop off again.

Since 07 our team has finished after finals, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and currently in the top 4 again.

Now over the last 3 seasons teams have had to bridge the gap find weak points in the game plan to exploit, both our and their players come into peak and out of peak form. Injuries have forced us to debut 7 players which most other sides would call a rebuild so it's no wonder the side is not playing with same cohesion.

Teams don't dominate forever, we have the nucleus of a great side and it is still young but we need to inject some more quality tall forwards this draft and also a pacey break the lines mid.

 

[Mame]

I think the players don't want to repeat last year, where we put in 100% effort for four quarters most games and then tired late in the season. I can think of several games this year where we built an early lead, took the foot off the pedal, were challenged and then responded. That didn't happen last year. Our game style is physically demanding and other teams that mimic it (Essendon and West Coast) are also showing signs of tiring late in the season.

Geelong showed us that you need to be playing your best football in September and that March to August is about getting into a contending position while managing your workload. Smart move if you ask me.

This is the only thought giving me hope at the moment. We haven't been smashing sides this year but maybe that's a sign that even though we aren't in form we are still winning. If we don't smash North in round 21 when we should be hitting form I'm going to be less hopeful.

 

[PieLebo87]

Most premiership sides peak for about a 4-5 year period before they drop off again.

Since 07 our team has finished after finals, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and currently in the top 4 again.

Now over the last 3 seasons teams have had to bridge the gap find weak points in the game plan to exploit, both our and their players come into peak and out of peak form. Injuries have forced us to debut 7 players which most other sides would call a rebuild so it's no wonder the side is not playing with same cohesion.

Teams don't dominate forever, we have the nucleus of a great side and it is still young but we need to inject some more quality tall forwards this draft and also a pacey break the lines mid.

This is very well thought out and said.

We aren't in a re-building stage, but a mini 'in-between' stage. Our last few years had the dominance of a group in their peak (Didak, Johnson, Ball, Jolly, Davis) and to a lesser extent, a second tier, for a season or two, made up of Fraser, O'Bree, Lockyer, Maxwell and Presti.

What we are seeing this year is the likes of Cloke, Thomas, Dawes, Pendlebury, Wellingham, Shaw, O'Brien, Toovey and co become the most senior figures at the club, and that transition, as easy as it may seem, isn't working, because these guys aren't quite grasping the responsibility of consistent week in, week out quality footy like the senior players before them in the last few seasons. The gap between the best and worst for the likes of Thomas, Cloke, Wellingham, O'Brien, Goldsack and a couple of others is still too large, and it is creating that inconsistency in the scoreline for us.

Then we've got the new blood; the likes of Fasolo, Sinclair, Keeffe, Mooney and others who are just there to add a bit of extra ingredience for now, and WILL be in-consistent.

I'd say, based on what I've said above, this is why the likes of Swan, Pendlebury and Beams are our best, because they have managed to maintain the consistency through this transition.

The Collingwood team, coaching staff aside, of 2012, will not, and cannot be the same as previous years, because we don't have Didak, Johnson, and the other names of those in the first paragraph in their peak, so there is going to be a change in the team dynamics.

Hopefully there is an improvement in the last couple of months of this season.

 

[Stifler's mom]

I think our record is pretty good. We just haven't killed teams and have lost badly when we have lost. Only 2 games decided by under a kick, so you couldn't say that we have been overly lucky

Essendon
WCE
Geelong

Could easily have lost them all.

 

[SuperSub17]

I think our percentage isn't really a gauge of where we are at, or our form.We have taken the foot off in a number of games already this year, and if we kept going and won by more then maybe that would be a true indicator.

 

[Mateyman]

Essendon
WCE
Geelong

Could easily have lost them all.

So say we win 2 - because Geelong was 2 goals. We are 1 win worse over the year