Outlook for players who have done their ACL twice?

[1981]

What is the outlook for players coming back after multiple ACLs?
That is, how many players coming back from a second ACL make a recovery (ie: don’t do the knee again) vs how many do it a third time, and then a fourth time?

What does history tell us?
I am guessing there isn’t a huge sample of players that have done 2+ ACLs?
Does anyone have a decent grasp of most AFL players who have done 2+ ACLs?

Might seem a bit crude to do this but if we can put together a decent list we can then figure out the likelihood Doc has a repeat vs makes a sound recovery.

 

[Jabba73]

Alex Johnson was only halfway done. Ditto Dan Menzel

 

[AceAndy]

I thought Max Gawn had 2 ACLs early on in his career.

 

[JustaBattler]

https://source.wustl.edu/2011/09/study-looks-at-why-second-acl-surgeries-often-fail/

Lots of variables in the equation if you read article and a lot to do with what type of ACL procedure was used in the first place.

 

[1981]

Found some info online from a US study.
Only had a quick squiz but from what I can gather…

A rerupture after primary ACL reconstruction occurs in 1% to 11% of all athletes.
In football, chances of an initial rupture is 1.5%.
Chances of a recurrent rupture 9.9%.

Of professional athletes in the United States who underwent ACL reconstruction, 87% successfully returned to play at a mean 1 year after surgery; however, of the 3.5% who had recurrent ACL ruptures requiring revision surgery, the return-to-play rate was only 50%. This doesn't sound too good for Doc.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6024527/

 

[1981]

https://source.wustl.edu/2011/09/study-looks-at-why-second-acl-surgeries-often-fail/

Lots of variables in the equation if you read article and a lot to do with what type of ACL procedure was used in the first place.

yes there is always going to be factors at play, we are trying to find a broad stroke likelihood.

 

[bigm386]

I remember Dean Rice did at least 1 ACL and I think something in the another knee on return not sure if the second was an ACL though and he did well

Jon Patton has had 2 or 3 ACL's and managed a few seasons after the first one in around 2013-2014 which I think needed a follow up surgery before doing in again in 2018.

Libba is back this year after 2 so that might be a good guide. Jake Lever may be back this year also? Same as Nic Nat.

 

[Bluey24]

If Docherty has any chance of making a successful return from a second ACL injury, he 100% has the will and character to do it

 

[Stefchook]

It's pretty sad. But I think we need to be planning for a future without Docherty (given he's a high risk of never really making it back to what he was). But obviously if he does make it back, then it's a huge bonus.

 

[1981]

That 50% seems about right. Just comparing it to gut feel. Have always felt if you do the ACL more than once you're on shaky ground. Sad but true.

Patton
Shwarz
Menzel

Haven't they all done it 2+ times ?

Maybe some more to add to the list?

 

[JustaBattler]

It isn't a pretty picture for anyone - but as said above - if anyone can come back Doch can.

 

[1981]

It isn't a pretty picture for anyone - but as said above - if anyone can come back Doch can.

You're talking mentally, right?
But that won't help if his physical knee decides to give way.
The mental side is obviously very important, not just in regards to desire which translates into determination and effort, but also in regards, I assume, to preparation and essentially being disciplined to do everything right to give him the best chance of a succesful return.
But I also image much of this is out of his hands. It'll largely come down to the physical side of things.

I agree with a previous poster. I am afraid when I dream of our future 17th flag side I don't factor him in. He would be a bonus. I hate doing this. I really do. But I think it is just common sense and the desire to protect oneself from a downfall and disappointment if his knee goes again.

genuinely wish him all the best, and I just hope the medicos have a plan, something new that will give him a better chance than historically would be expected for someone in his situation.

It's like shoulders. They say they can go the extra mile and basically batten the shoulder down so it just won't pop again, but you will lose some flexibility. If they had this option for knees I would take it. I would take a 70% restricted Doc right now.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Dean Rice.....no more needs to be said.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Found some info online from a US study.
Only had a quick squiz but from what I can gather…

A rerupture after primary ACL reconstruction occurs in 1% to 11% of all athletes.
In football, chances of an initial rupture is 1.5%.
Chances of a recurrent rupture 9.9%.

Of professional athletes in the United States who underwent ACL reconstruction, 87% successfully returned to play at a mean 1 year after surgery; however, of the 3.5% who had recurrent ACL ruptures requiring revision surgery, the return-to-play rate was only 50%. This doesn't sound too good for Doc.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6024527/

Is that in the NFL tho? I feel the NFL is a lot more cutthroat, you have so many guys who can walk onto the team at any point that they are not hesitant to cut players.

 

[1981]

Yes would be and agree with you

 

[BIGGUS 64]

I remember Dean Rice did at least 1 ACL and I think something in the another knee on return not sure if the second was an ACL though and he did well

Jon Patton has had 2 or 3 ACL's and managed a few seasons after the first one in around 2013-2014 which I think needed a follow up surgery before doing in again in 2018.

Libba is back this year after 2 so that might be a good guide. Jake Lever may be back this year also? Same as Nic Nat.

Yes, Rice had two recos on his left knee, the first one when he was at the Saints. He recovered, but injured his other knee (no reco needed) and the Saints de-listed him. Classy, eh!

Deano's reconstructed left knee was re-injured in his debut match for the Blues. How stiff is that?!
The Blues famously supported him and he returned to the side in time to play an important role in the 1995 season and ended the season a premiership player. He never had any recurrence of his knee problems.

So, there's a good example of a happy ending!

 

[CJMB]

Is that in the NFL tho? I feel the NFL is a lot more cutthroat, you have so many guys who can walk onto the team at any point that they are not hesitant to cut players.

Also worth noting that for majority of NFL positions the physical requirements to compete at the top level involve elite power, ability to burst out of the blocks, and often to change direction laterally either under immense load (linebackers, tackles, etc) or at full speed (running backs, etc).

Doc has an advantage here in that he's more of a distributor than a Pickett/Saad/Hunt/etc running player; in this comparison Doc is the quarterback while the aforementioned are running backs/wide receivers. Doc's strength is his reading of the play and being able to put himself in the right position to defend, intercept or receive the ball and move the pill on to advantage when he has it. Him losing a yard of pace isn't the end of the world, just like it isn't for Hodge now in the twilight of his career at the Lions but conversely it would be notably detrimental to those players that rely on their ability to break lines to have notable impact on a match.

For Doc now it's just about repeating all that rehab, putting himself in the best possible position to return to training and then hoping for a bit of good luck for a change. If he can continue his career as the cornerstone of our defensive outfit, to use another horrible commentator term act as the general down back, then I'll be happy.

 

[windows1]

I will be very surprised if he DOESNT make it back to a pretty full recovery.

The key is regaining balance and coordination, strength etc in surrounding muscles.

I’d be stunned if they aren’t doing an enormous amount of research into improved recovery processes for him.

Menzel had FOUR knee reconstructions and went on to play 3 pretty uninterrupted years. Pretty decent quality. His pace was never great and I’d say the modern game is the reason he got delisted (doesn’t apply forward pressure) way more than any lingering knee issues. I watched his doco on rehabilitation. Huge amounts of trampolining etc.

I’d say part of the reason many of the 50 percent didn’t come back after 2 is they just weren’t that good in the first place -
Ie: couldn’t be bothered. Be careful of fallacies of correlation.

I’m backing Doc.

 

[windows1]

Here’s an interesting point. Which I think in Doc’s case would make an argument for a much longer delay in his return (and maybe Setterfield as well).

Biopsies on ACL grafts show most take 2 years to fully mature. Meaning that first year (that Doc was in and Setters is now approaching) after the standard 12 months off is the risky period.

I guess we have to hold our breath for a year for Setters and have to wait 2
More for Doc before he’s in the clear.

 

[windows1]

The more I think about it the more I think Setters is the one to worry about here.

If the 12-24 month period is particularly risky, then why would we push it much early on with him?

He’s highly talented. He’s super young. And we don’t need him this year. We are not flag contenders and he’s not going to make a significant difference to the side this year.

BUT he will next and in the years to come.

It’s food for thought that’s for sure.

Of course the obvious retort is “leave it to the specialists” but frankly they play a numbers game: over 85 percent of players are ok after a year. Point is that number is probably more like 95 percent over 2 years. The ‘specialists’ don’t actually ‘know’ case by case- if they did they wouldn’t send you back out there.

Setters is a risk for sure. And we would do well to think carefully about the next 6 months with him.

 

[mjonc43]

They become good assistant coaches

I did my ACL and played soccer 10 months later without the professional support. Had my knee tested in a front on tackle where my tibia was fractured due to the strength of the knee reco. I guess it is just luck of the draw.


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[BlueRenaissance]

The more i think about it the more I prefer Setters knee recovery chances over Docherty.

Setters did his from a direct collision, not a weak knee structure. Docherty did his first knee with no one in the vicinity and just completing a basic turn. Docherty is going to need some luck.

 

[Chookaradley]

Whatever the injury is, I reckon missing 2 consective years of football is the issue. No doubt he'll get back, but back to his All Australian best. Its a bit of a stretch IMO unfortunately.

 

[Taylor]

They become good assistant coaches

I did my ACL and played soccer 10 months later without the professional support. Had my knee tested in a front on tackle where my tibia was fractured due to the strength of the knee reco. I guess it is just luck of the draw.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Impact on the shin forcing the tibia backwards is the motion that would rupture your posterior cruciate ligament.

Anthony Morabito had a few.

 

[ferrisb]

I am an elite armchair athlete and have ruptured my posterior a few times....