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- Gippy Power
Sorry lads - was away last week and frankly writing a pre game analysis was a waste of time vs the Dees. Must admit, had me nervouus for a bit.....
Game Analysis – Scum vs the good guys!
Importance of this game
In many ways this is one of the most crucial of the year for the club and a lot of people at Collingwood. A big statement but make no mistake about its accuracy.
First and foremost the club has an opportunity to eliminate one of the two remaining chances for the final 8. It would be almost impossible for a team with only 5 wins at the end of Rd 12 making the 8. If we lose, our spot suddenly becomes vunerable with the Swans and Bulldogs up next.
Its also an important game for the coaching panel because in my opinion Mick is 0-2 against Ratten. There is no doubt Ratten may not have been 100% committed to winning last years game (look no further than when he pulled Fevola off in the last few mins with them on the charge and Fevola dominating – Fevola stayed off for a few mins and then went back on). This year Mick was simply out coached.
For the players – its just the pride. You cannot lose to Carlton twice in the same year when you are the better side. They were poor as a group and you would hope their pride is at its peak come Sunday.
Formline
Both sides go into this game with reasonable form behind them. Interesting to note that whilst the Pies like the G Cartlon don’t appear to having had mixed results there lately. Still the momentum from the Port game will give them plenty of confidence whilst ours was probably ‘the week we had to have’.
Notwithstanding, Collingwood are the better side. You wouldn’t see the Blues beat Geelong by 86pts. At their best the Pies are a better side – FACT!
At selection
Pendlebury comes back for Cook who again acquitted himself pretty well and depending on which media you believe Rocca is still an outside chance. Cook may still be a chance if Johnson doesn’t come up. Reid for Cox might also be on the cards but Reid has played little football lately. Personally I would think about bringing in Wood and pushing Fraser fwd if we thought more height fwd was the right way to go. Josh is clearly not 100% so it may be the way to go.
Scum will probably stick with the same batch although Jamison and Pfeiffer would be chances. Hard to see who they would leave out albeit Bower is a forced change and Jamison probably gets that spot. Browne might make way for the bigger bodied Pfeiffer or even Bannister if he came up.
Cloke, Hampson and Cruiser might be one tall to many for the Pies with Hampson possibly making way for them to bring in another runner.
The gameplan – what do we want to see
Its more about them than us. Stop Fevola and you most probably win. Sure that wasn’t the case last week but it worked beautifully for the first ¾ qtrs. Against them the last two times they have given him plenty of space. He just cannot be afforded that space. If he is, turn off the TV and use your time more wisely. Because where they are definitely better is the clearances. Judd, Murphy, Stevens represent a better group at the stoppages than our blokes. They will feed him. Sure we need to try and cut them off but my fear is that is probably not going to work. Judds ability alone to win contested possessions is outstanding and Stevens as you saw in the last qtr vs Port only needs a qtr to make a massive difference. Murphy is cream.
Our blokes on the other hand are very hit and miss. A number of sides this year, including Melbourne have made us look very average at stoppages. As good as Didak and Davis are in their more midfield roles the reality is they are often caught out at stoppages (eg Jones goal late in the second).
In short, as much pressure as possible at the stoppages but also eliminate the Fevola’s space to lead into.
Key matchups
Ultimately we need to believe our breadth of forwards is better than theirs. To that extent we should be prepared to play a spare man in defence to cut out Fevola in the belief that they will ultimately kick fewer goals than us. For Fevola I would use Brown or possibly even Harry O with Maxwell playing spare.
The only other two to worry about are Judd and Stevens. Not sure its worth matching Judd because it wont do anything as Cassisi’s effort showed last week. Maybe play Burns against him as he showed last week he can be damaging and he will force Judd to be offensive. For Stevens I would use Thomas. Again, Thomas has shown he can play tight and equally he will worry Stevens going the other way. Lockyer is another I would think about or even Heath Shaw. Judd and Stevens are to good for tagging (and we don’t have a good tagger anyway) so you are better off making them accountable by playing an equally dangerous bloke on them and backing yourselves.
Scotland is also under rated and I would think about having Didak on him. Will be to quick for Scotland and again will make him accountable.
What worrying Mick
He will know this game is important for a variety of reasons. He will want this one.
What's worrying Brett
A loss here will kiss the finals opportunity bye bye. There is a lot riding on this for him and the opportunity of a contract extension if he made the finals would be a moral certainty.
Who needs to step up
Not many as they are all going pretty well. I think the challenge is to make sure they are all ‘on’ when game time hits. I think the forwards will be crucial. If we can get an even spread of goal kickers then it makes it hard for the Scum to contain us. Clearly that will be a reflection of our the midfield group go.
The result
Fingers crossed as it should be close. It will be finals like and that will be to our favour but I am leaning towards Carlton. I think Ratten coaches pretty well vs Malthouse and that will be half the battle. The middle will be crucial and I think Carlton’s mids will do to us what the Dees mids could not. I hope I am wrong……. I hate these blokes!
Floreat Pica
Game Analysis – Scum vs the good guys!
Importance of this game
In many ways this is one of the most crucial of the year for the club and a lot of people at Collingwood. A big statement but make no mistake about its accuracy.
First and foremost the club has an opportunity to eliminate one of the two remaining chances for the final 8. It would be almost impossible for a team with only 5 wins at the end of Rd 12 making the 8. If we lose, our spot suddenly becomes vunerable with the Swans and Bulldogs up next.
Its also an important game for the coaching panel because in my opinion Mick is 0-2 against Ratten. There is no doubt Ratten may not have been 100% committed to winning last years game (look no further than when he pulled Fevola off in the last few mins with them on the charge and Fevola dominating – Fevola stayed off for a few mins and then went back on). This year Mick was simply out coached.
For the players – its just the pride. You cannot lose to Carlton twice in the same year when you are the better side. They were poor as a group and you would hope their pride is at its peak come Sunday.
Formline
Both sides go into this game with reasonable form behind them. Interesting to note that whilst the Pies like the G Cartlon don’t appear to having had mixed results there lately. Still the momentum from the Port game will give them plenty of confidence whilst ours was probably ‘the week we had to have’.
Notwithstanding, Collingwood are the better side. You wouldn’t see the Blues beat Geelong by 86pts. At their best the Pies are a better side – FACT!
At selection
Pendlebury comes back for Cook who again acquitted himself pretty well and depending on which media you believe Rocca is still an outside chance. Cook may still be a chance if Johnson doesn’t come up. Reid for Cox might also be on the cards but Reid has played little football lately. Personally I would think about bringing in Wood and pushing Fraser fwd if we thought more height fwd was the right way to go. Josh is clearly not 100% so it may be the way to go.
Scum will probably stick with the same batch although Jamison and Pfeiffer would be chances. Hard to see who they would leave out albeit Bower is a forced change and Jamison probably gets that spot. Browne might make way for the bigger bodied Pfeiffer or even Bannister if he came up.
Cloke, Hampson and Cruiser might be one tall to many for the Pies with Hampson possibly making way for them to bring in another runner.
The gameplan – what do we want to see
Its more about them than us. Stop Fevola and you most probably win. Sure that wasn’t the case last week but it worked beautifully for the first ¾ qtrs. Against them the last two times they have given him plenty of space. He just cannot be afforded that space. If he is, turn off the TV and use your time more wisely. Because where they are definitely better is the clearances. Judd, Murphy, Stevens represent a better group at the stoppages than our blokes. They will feed him. Sure we need to try and cut them off but my fear is that is probably not going to work. Judds ability alone to win contested possessions is outstanding and Stevens as you saw in the last qtr vs Port only needs a qtr to make a massive difference. Murphy is cream.
Our blokes on the other hand are very hit and miss. A number of sides this year, including Melbourne have made us look very average at stoppages. As good as Didak and Davis are in their more midfield roles the reality is they are often caught out at stoppages (eg Jones goal late in the second).
In short, as much pressure as possible at the stoppages but also eliminate the Fevola’s space to lead into.
Key matchups
Ultimately we need to believe our breadth of forwards is better than theirs. To that extent we should be prepared to play a spare man in defence to cut out Fevola in the belief that they will ultimately kick fewer goals than us. For Fevola I would use Brown or possibly even Harry O with Maxwell playing spare.
The only other two to worry about are Judd and Stevens. Not sure its worth matching Judd because it wont do anything as Cassisi’s effort showed last week. Maybe play Burns against him as he showed last week he can be damaging and he will force Judd to be offensive. For Stevens I would use Thomas. Again, Thomas has shown he can play tight and equally he will worry Stevens going the other way. Lockyer is another I would think about or even Heath Shaw. Judd and Stevens are to good for tagging (and we don’t have a good tagger anyway) so you are better off making them accountable by playing an equally dangerous bloke on them and backing yourselves.
Scotland is also under rated and I would think about having Didak on him. Will be to quick for Scotland and again will make him accountable.
What worrying Mick
He will know this game is important for a variety of reasons. He will want this one.
What's worrying Brett
A loss here will kiss the finals opportunity bye bye. There is a lot riding on this for him and the opportunity of a contract extension if he made the finals would be a moral certainty.
Who needs to step up
Not many as they are all going pretty well. I think the challenge is to make sure they are all ‘on’ when game time hits. I think the forwards will be crucial. If we can get an even spread of goal kickers then it makes it hard for the Scum to contain us. Clearly that will be a reflection of our the midfield group go.
The result
Fingers crossed as it should be close. It will be finals like and that will be to our favour but I am leaning towards Carlton. I think Ratten coaches pretty well vs Malthouse and that will be half the battle. The middle will be crucial and I think Carlton’s mids will do to us what the Dees mids could not. I hope I am wrong……. I hate these blokes!
Floreat Pica
