Positives and Negatives vs Collingwood

[Biggie]

Holy shit

That is some in depth analysis

 

[DickDunn]

Super read Dylan82 - you’re spot on about the importance of Hurn and Jetta’s lethal kicking. All the commentary about our keeping-off style overlooks that unlike Collingwood’s pale imitation, we have the system and the confidence to move the ball aggressively and find holes in the opposition zone rather than just sharing it around with no purpose. And Rioli will be a huge X-factor when back

 

[KamakazeSalami]

So with the government now in caretaker mode I managed to get out of an unnecessary trip to Adelaide and found some writing mojo – and so it goes…


Breathe in.

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I love the smell of Victorian fear in the morning.


The league and punditry are waking up to a nightmare reality:

• The 2018 premiership by the Eagles was not some fluke that can be ignored.
• The players who missed out on that premiership will only make the Eagles stronger this year.
• No team is playing the MCG better than what the Eagles are doing right now.

At the same time, the following holds true also:

• Richmond are completely imploding.
• Essendon can’t defend.
• Melbourne remain broken from last year’s Preliminary Final.
• Hawthorn are relying on a busted up Roughead as their main focal point up forward.
• The Bulldogs just lost to Gold Coast and play fewer games at the MCG than the Eagles.
• Prior to their Round 1 win, Geelong had lost all of their last five matches at the MCG. They are 2-6 at that venue against all opponents since R1 2018.
• The great Victorian hope Collingwood, are 3-9 at the MCG against top 8 opponents since R1 2018. Aside from that Preliminary Final, their only such victories have come against Melbourne and GWS.

The West Coast Eagles are without doubt the team that is best positioned for the 2019 flag – there are far more questions hanging over each of the would be contenders than the reigning premiers.

This was meant to be a narrative about Collingwood. So brave last year, this was the opportunity they had been waiting for to gain redemption for losing the Grand Final and prove that they had taken the next step as premiership favourites. After all, with the addition of Beams they now had the best midfield ever according to some.

Ahem…

Judd | Cousins | Kerr


So let’s forget the hype and premature media lovefest over the Magpies and confront this match in the simplest of terms: these teams met three times last year, twice at the scheduled venue, all with the same result. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar result in this instance.

Collingwood had added Beams but the Eagles effectively had added Gaff. The apparent mismatch in the midfield remained much the same as it did in September – we all know how that played out.

And that is exactly what happened.

The Magpies came out fast, huffed and puffed, but were unable to blow the Eagles’ defence down. From that point it became only a matter of time before the play was increasingly controlled by the players wearing blue and gold and that Collingwood would be brought into submission and defeat.

This team is like a giant constricting snake – you get a single shot to inflict damage before one suffocating coil after another is added, building increasing pressure until the inevitable downfall and demise.

Unlike almost any other team that I have witnessed, this Eagles team is able to adsorb pressure, subdue opposition momentum and dictate play upon its own terms. In the new age of fixed starting positions and wild momentum swings, it is this ability that makes the team stand above all others.


That is now four consecutive wins at the MCG, just the third time that has occurred in the history of the club; the other occasions being 2006-07 (4) and 1992 (5). This is a special team, decades from now we will still be discussing it.


Collingwood carved up a lacklustre Richmond last week, utilising a possession-controlling strategy that was heralded by the media as bold and new. Actually, it was neither – Buckley had simply copied Simpson’s premiership-winning playbook – but obvious things like that tend to be beyond the commentariat these days. Their ridiculous statistic of 174 marks in that match was lauded by the press as a statement of their dominance. Conversely, the highest number of marks accumulated by the Eagles in recent times was 131 in Round 18 last year against the Bulldogs. It could be argued that the Magpie’s high marking total against Richmond is more a statement of their inefficiency rather than their dominance.


I’m going to start with Hutchings, because it was the move of him onto Pendlebury that changed the match. Yes, Pendles is the latest victim to fall foul of being “Hutched”. Without question the dominant player on the ground in the first quarter, Pendlebury was stopped in his tracks by Hutchings after quarter time.
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With Pendlebury getting taxidermized for the Hutchings collection, the Eagles midfield became dominant, the result being a decisive turnaround in the second quarter which set the course for victory.

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With fixed starting positions causing clearances (particularly centre clearances) to be far more damaging, quality taggers have considerably gained in value – and Hutchings is undeniably the best of them all – to the extent that his negating influence is now a weapon in itself.

The second quarter also saw the club increase the pressure applied upon the opposition. The forwards chased and harassed and did not allow Collingwood to spread as they wanted out of defence. Ryan was fantastic to this end, displaying a club-record 28 pressure acts for the match – not bad for a player that had significant questions over his defensive game just a year ago – he is an exceptional talent and this is the final piece for him falling into place.

Under the added pressure, Collingwood’s ball movement faltered; they started handballing more often, missing targets and turning the ball over.
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This, in addition to the ascendancy of the midfield, resulted in a 6 goal to 3 quarter, turning a deficit into a lead before half time and positioning the team very favourably for another MCG win.


Grundy is an elite ruckman. Much of the outcome of this match was dependent upon how the duo of Hickey and Vardy would fare against him. 40 hitouts, 22 disposals (13 contested) and 11 clearances suggests Grundy trashed them, but there is another story to this. Obviously concerned with how Vardy got away late in the Grand Final as Grundy tired, Buckley rested his prize ruck for almost half the third quarter in order to have him power through the final period.
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With Grundy off the ground, Hickey and Vardy prospered against Cox, providing the midfield with first possession and limiting Magpie scoring options by denying them the ball.
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Hickey even ventured forward and got himself a goal during this period. By the time Grundy was back for the final quarter, his team were down beyond 3 goals and the damage already done. Once again both the rucks played their part in weakening the opposition and the team (as good teams do) took their opportunity when it came.

It is statistics such as this that does make one suspect that Naitanui is going to absolutely tear the league apart when he returns under these new rules.


The final quarter typified this team. Despite getting well beaten for contested possessions and clearances due to the influence of Grundy’s late surge, the team managed just two fewer inside forward 50 entries and actually had more collective forward entries (inside 50s minus opposition rebound 50s), leading to a 5 goal to 4 impact on the scoreboard.

Just when the Magpies looked like they might provide a threat, serendipity played its part. Ryan lived up to his moniker, flying over Howe to take the mark of the night and (with the assistance of a 50 metre penalty) spotted up Sheed in the right corner pocket. We’ve been here before. There was only going to be one outcome – perfectly straight through the centre, just like in September – crushing the hopes of the black and white army once again and shutting the door on Collingwood to seal a fourth loss in succession for them against the Eagles in less than 12 months.

The only hiccup was the wasteful contribution of 20 clangers in a single quarter (more than 40% of the team’s overall total for the match) which kept Collingwood in the game when they should have been put away. No doubt this will be something that the coaching group take from this to work upon. It was a good result, but far from a perfect performance – there is still room for improvement in this team.


The defence proved again that it is without peer in the competition.

Barrass again took Cox to school and gave him a lesson. There were to be no Richmond-style defensive lapses leaving runways of space for the big American to lead into. Mihocek tried to negate McGovern but only managed to negate himself rather than his opponent. Elliot, so dangerous over the first two rounds was shut down so thoroughly by Cole that you forgot he was even on the field. Rotham, in his very first game was backed in to do the job on 2018 Rising Star Stephenson. He did it and some, shutting down his opponent and looking like a modern version of Mackenzie reborn. His efforts led the team in rebounds from defensive 50 and was only behind McGovern and Hurn for intercepts. In a tough game for a debut, this was an impressive performance and gave all the signs that yet another high quality piece was being developed from the Eagles production line.

Indeed the only threat up forward was posed by De Goey. By the halfway point of the first quarter he already had 4 marks and 2 goals. After that Sheppard had the commentator’s favourite completely covered, limiting him to just three more marks and two shots that troubled the scoreboard throughout the rest of the game. For all the hype that surrounds him, De Goey had no means of overcoming the wall that was Sheppard. It was just reminder for all those in Victoria that a quality player was missing from the premiership side in September, and they are now all the stronger for having him back.

With ten minutes to go in the game, the spoil count was 40-29 in favour of the Eagles. When the ball entered dangerous areas, the Magpie forwards were prevented from getting marks. Other than De Goey, the only multiple goalscorer for Collingwood was Treloar.

Then of course, were the weapons of disposal, Hurn and Jetta. They combined for almost 50 disposals at 90% efficiency. Not cheap, stat-padding disposals either – this was high-risk, high-reward football of the kind that no other team has been able to emulate with effect. When Collingwood tried to switch, it was a relay of 30m kicks that gave time for the defence to roll across and bring it to a halt. When Hurn and Jetta get the ball, that relay kick instead becomes a 50m dart that hits its target and allows the opposition defence to be exposed.

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It’s one thing to kick it around, playing keep-off from the opposition without risk – it’s another thing entirely to execute a defensive zone breaking play with risk.

It’s also another thing entirely to push up the ground and hoover-up the ball like Wirrapanda, before setting up a goal.


Of course, you couldn’t cover this match without mentioning the return of Andrew Gaff.

A horrific incident; a record suspension; a missed premiership; and the rejection of mercenary gold. A return in the same theatre and against the same opposition as the triumph of last year that he was forced to painfully watch from the stands. He was on the ground after that game, but not part of the celebrations. There must have been a lot going through his head coming into this match – for him to then go on and put in such a performance speaks volumes to his professionalism, dedication and sheer determination to succeed.

With his absence eclipsed by a premiership, it has been largely forgotten just how good Gaff is – he is an elite player of the competition. To a chorus of boos from the Magpie supporters whenever he touched the ball, he amassed 35 disposals, 13 contested possessions (the equal highest total on the ground) and 5 clearances (equal highest for the team). He was everywhere and arguably the best player on the ground. You almost had to feel sorry for Kangaroos fans – the last remnants in the dark corners of their souls being destroyed watching him dominate in the wings. Gaff was back, and he fitted back into the Eagles machine perfectly.

In another instance that brings their methodology into serious question, AFL Player Ratings somehow placed Gaff within the bottom six players in the match – seriously WTF?... Yet the two coaches saw fit to give him 9 out of a possible 10 in AFLCA voting. I’ll go with the coaches’ opinions, thanks.

With Gaff back in the side, what would that mean for Sheed? It was only when Gaff wasn’t there that Sheed exploded from underachieving reserve into premiership defining gun. Could the two co-exist and maintain output? This is 2019; 24 disposals and 3 goals – Sheed has arrived and isn’t going anywhere but up at the moment. Since coming back into the team in Round 21 last year, he is averaging 28.7 disposals and a goal per game. To put that in context, in 2018 just two players managed that level of output throughout the season – Dangerfield and Coniglio.

Shuey, Yeo and Redden shared the rest of the midfield load, with 23 contested possessions and 14 clearances between them. Masten zoned off and provided defensive cover. With Gaff and Sheed impacting on the inside ball, Shuey was afforded more time on the outside, gaining over 500 metres and getting the ball forward into the attacking fifty on 9 occasions, resulting in two direct goal assists.

The stoppage setup looks very effective. The preferred system appeared to be arranged as follows:

• Shuey and Yeo hunt the ball from either side of the ruck tap, whilst Sheed attacks from the defensive side of the contest.
• Gaff comes in off the back of the stoppage, adding to the contest and providing an outlet option.
• Redden holds position on the attacking side of the contest, offering an outlet on that side in addition to marking any opposition spares around the back of the stoppage.
• Masten takes up a sweeping position off the corridor-side of the contest.
• Hutchings positions to get in front of his mark and provides blocks for runners off the defensive side if possession is won.

Considering the team lost the hit outs 42-19, the stoppage configuration worked well to draw in the total clearances won. That plus Grundy’s tapwork could use some improvement.


Cripps returned and showed everyone why he is the best non-key forward in the competition. He was the best player on the ground after Gaff. From the second-half of last year his form has been nothing short of spectacular.

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No other player in the competition is providing anywhere near that combination of attack, defence and outside spread. He is practically in a category of his own – pressure forward, outlet forward, crumbing forward, high half forward, fly forward, wing forward – he is all of these positions in the one game. Without question he gets nowhere near the amount of recognition that he deserves for his contribution to the team.

18 disposals, 9 contested possessions (the second-highest total in the team), 6 inside 50s, 8 score involvements, 301m gained and 4 goals (the highest total in the match) – another fantastic match.

Kennedy continued to show positive signs after a rusty return against GWS. 4 marks (2 contested), 6 score involvements, 2 goal assists and 3 goals. He was leaping at the ball through packs in this game, which is generally a good indicator that he is not far away from breaking out into top form.

As for breaking out, there are three young players featuring in the forward group who certainly are doing that: Allen, Ryan and Petruccelle.

Oscar Allen. It is simply remarkable what he is doing at such a young age. With Darling in Howe’s pocket and Kennedy getting triple-teamed at every marking contest inside forward 50, somebody else was required to provide a strong presence up forward – that someone was 20 year old Allen in his fifth ever game. His early read on the ball when it is in-flight is, for lack of a better word, McGovern-like. Gets into dangerous positions and leads hard. Limits opportunities for defenders by taking marks at the highest point. Marks with a single grab. Finishes accurately. The presence and influence he is displaying up forward demands attention. Averaging two goals a game and as many contested marks as Aliir and Lobb. His potential is ridiculous. The future is in very good hands.

Ryan, as mentioned earlier broke the club record in a game for pressure acts. He also played in my opinion his most complete game for the club and his decision-making with the ball was excellent. 7 contested possessions, 2 clearances, 82% disposal efficiency, 3 goal assists and a goal to himself. He is simply electric to watch when he plays like this. Another mark of the year contender and possibly the assist of the year by virtue of his underrated goal-line palm down to Darling in the final quarter.

Petruccelle. With every game he continues to improve. He’s starting to learn how to get into positions where his elite speed can be used to do damage. Better yet, his team-mates are beginning to look for him on the breakaway as well. Had the opportunity for 4 goals – gave one away to Sheed and kicked 1.2. If he can clean up those shots on the run then look out.
What may be more pleasing to see from him however is the accumulation of 14 disposals, 6 score involvements and over 300m gained. For comparison, Venables (the player he has overtaken for a spot in the 22) has only exceeded 13 disposals in a game just once and has never gained 300m in any senior match.
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Petruccelle has been the bolter so far this year. O.Allen was always going to make a statement this year – his quality was just too high not to. Petruccelle however, was as raw as they come last year and looked completely lost during much of the games he played. Not so anymore. He’s also proven that he is no one-trick pony either and deserves his place in the team. He is a potentially terrifying match-up for opponents – name another player in the competition with acceleration and pace like him and stands at 185cm?

Allen, Ryan and Petruccelle – thanks Gold Coast.


The only real negative from this game was Darling being comprehensively beaten by Howe. He managed just a single mark and only impacted the scoreboard through Ryan’s palm-down in the goalsquare. A break-even between the two in this contest and the final result becomes a thrashing. Hopefully he puts this behind him and bounces back next week.

Redden was quiet again but with Gaff returning he was shifted into another role. Still managed 8 contested possessions and 5 clearances and negated Collingwood midfielders from having an impact off the back of stoppages.


So a new year is in with new rules, however the results from last year remain.

Collingwood are amongst our greatest rivals this year, yet they were accounted for comfortably away from home once again with a squad that was missing three first-team certainties in Naitanui, Rioli and Duggan.


The Eagles are the premiers for a reason – they are the best team in the competition.

And rather than going away, they look set to continue and improve.


Do you smell that?

Worth the wait. [emoji1419]

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