Price Changes in Fantasy

[VSTone]

Hi All,

Round 2 and the Fantasy price changes have begun to kick in...

I have no idea as to how they are determined...
but i did notice that even those who have played 1 game in round 2 have had a price adjustment
yet those that played round 1 don't?

any ideas?

 

[Crawb]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[mic59]

Had quite a good jump in price, $695K. Tom Langdon $74606, Aaron Sandilands $69646, Jared Polec $63466, Ben Griffiths $53339, Xavie Ellis $49342. Only downturns were Matt Lobbe, Jimmy Bartel and Dustin Martin for a total of $36300. Good luck comes into it a lot, I'm 428 at the moment but was about 80000 at this point last year. And if I'd just held onto Steve Johnson as skip instead of trading for Joel Selwood when I had unlimited trades I'd be 50. Hopefully I'll be able to pick him up soon.

After the first two rounds Dane Swan is starting to look less likely. Although he's now hugely cheaper and has gone down $47537 Collingwood look to be playing him out of the forward lines. If people remember, it was exactly this that led to a run of bad scores by Tom Rockliff last year.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Gonna be an unpopular opinion, but I'm a fan of the new pricing. At this early stage it seems to be rewarding for those who jump early on a player who's a bit of a risky pick......means you actually have to watch games to pick your players rather than read spreadsheets.

 

[Jessbek]

And what the hell is with this $1 bullshit. Can you imagine not being able to make the trade you want because you're $1 short? What even is that

 

[slamdunka]

Anyone know what the movement column in TooSerious means? How is it different to the SM column? Why is it negative for the guys jumping in salary?

 

[grimlock]

Is anyone keen to try and work out the actual formula? I remember the 'fun' we had when we figured out the VS formula all those years ago...

 

[Scrotes2000]

Is anyone keen to try and work out the actual formula? I remember the 'fun' we had when we figured out the VS formula all those years ago...

Would be great to work it out but I'm not really a maths guy.

We need somewhere to bring together all the information we do have. This thread should do? Need some geniuses (other than grimlock)

 

[Spider Klein]

Is anyone keen to try and work out the actual formula? I remember the 'fun' we had when we figured out the VS formula all those years ago...

I have had a look at a lot of the moves but what is really strange is the moves for players playing only 1 game.

Also this "some of the previous year" also taken into account

Might just go with he scored big and will make me money

 

[grimlock]

I have had a look at a lot of the moves but what is really strange is the moves for players playing only 1 game.

Also this "some of the previous year" also taken into account

Might just go with he scored big and will make me money

It's not that weird once you realise, as you have noted, they're taking on scores from previous seasons into the formula.

 

[Spider Klein]

It's not that weird once you realise, as you have noted, they're taking on scores from previous seasons into the formula.

I know but I thought the weighting of the most recent matche was meant to be more than the previous week which was more than last season.

This only makes sense if it is an average of last 2 and from last year.

 

[grimlock]

It's more likely to be different weightings for the last X games, and X can encompass multiple seasons. Playing in the most recent round would be the trigger to recalculate.

 

[Spider Klein]

It's more likely to be different weightings for the last X games, and X can encompass multiple seasons. Playing in the most recent round would be the trigger to recalculate.

Ahhhh nice. Hence the trigger for the single match round 2 players and not the single match round 1 players.

 

[Scrotes2000]

Not sure if any of this is new...

1. There is an updated pricing system that more accurately reflects the likely value of Players from the beginning of the season and results in less short term volatility in Price changes, making it even more important to make the right long term selections.

TEAM & PLAYER VALUE

1. Players’ Prices change from Round to Round depending on how they have been performing over the previous weeks and months.
2. The Players’ Prices will change based on a formula that takes into account their past performances. All games played by the Player since the start of the season are taken into account in the calculation of their Price changes, with a sliding scale of weightings with the most recent game receiving the highest weighting, as well as a component of their performance last year - if they played last year!

ARE THE BREAK EVEN SCORES COMPLETELY ACCURATE?
These Scores are the most accurate possible estimates, however, due to the complexity of the pricing formula they may occasionally differ from the actual score required to Break Even depending on the results of all matches and player performances.

HOW DO YOU CALCULATE THE PLAYER'S CHANGE IN VALUE?

Players’ initial Price is based upon their Scores from the previous year along with numerous other factors. We do not provide exact details regarding how Player Prices change from there on, other than to say that Player Prices are based on past performances, with most recent games having the largest influence on the value.

This is all official stuff from their website. I'd be interested if anyone caught any un-official hints when speaking to the fanhub dudes personally or if they let anything slip in interviews maybe.

 

[grimlock]

Two possible approaches:

1. BEs are provided so we could possibly work backwards to see the weightings.
2. Work with players who have just played their first game and see how much they've changed, particularly the differences when the players involved start with the same price.

 

[TedDougChris]

Two possible approaches:

1. BEs are provided so we could possibly work backwards to see the weightings.
2. Work with players who have just played their first game and see how much they've changed, particularly the differences when the players involved start with the same price.

If you collect enough data you'll be able to figure it out, but I don't have time to do that sort of analysis pre-season, let alone during the season....