Punting Issues

[Oaksnaf]

What is the difference between profit and the realistic world? Does history provide us with answers for the future?

These are issues I am currently dealing with.

After 80 full cards of greyhound analysis only once have I had ALL of my top selections return a place dividend. That all-up returning $181 per $1.

Yes. Profit. That profit would last a few more months.

But. Is it mis-leading or is it probable the outcome will happen again (realistic)?

Because we have to be serious about what outcomes a profitable, and of those profitable outcomes what is realistic. If you had a system based on previous 1000 races, with 32% of your return coming from a single bet. Then what chance do you have of this 32% of return outcome happening again?

Negative thoughts yes. But we need to be realistic and understand what is probable and likely to repeat itself.

Taking away 32% of your return is HUGE. And you have to realise it is probable that this 32% of return WONT happen in the next 1000 bets.

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Tipping races is easy. I could tip on every single greyhound race there is. Because lets face it. If we looked at the form of any race in our code of interest, we would automatically have an opinion on who is more likely to win. How accurate the opinion is..... well it won't be decided on P/L. It should be decided on how accurately you rated the animal.

If we tip on so many races, then the likelyhood of us finding a profit margin is believable. It could be Shep Mixed 4/5 450m races where our BOX 8 shows a massive 350% POT.

All of a sudden, we find ourselves LOOKING for Shep Mixed 4/5 450m races with a GOOD BOX 8.

And we start losing.

If we find something profitable, then why all of a sudden does the AVERAGE amounts of bets increase on the profitable scenario within the same period of time.


Don't follow? That's ok. Just read it again.


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We can't be experts at everything, yet we enjoy having an opinion on anything. Opinions are like assholes. Everyones got one.

So if we haven't studied for a race, then why do we feel the need to bet on it? And why do we feel the need to post a bet? Especially if we don't actually back it.

Ok. I spent an hour studying a race. I have my market.

The top selection is OVERS and wins. Yet I lose all exotic bets and end up losing on the race.

The top selection is UNDERS and wins. I nab some exotics, but the payout is small and end up losing on the race.

In both instances we were accurate in our tipping. In one case we were accurate in our market. In one case we were accurate in our market order of chance (exotic betting).

Yet even though we are right in some aspects, we are still wrong with our punting.

How do we rectify this situation? Well we keep results. This shows profit margins in certain area's of our betting. >=$2.50 OVERS = Profit.

But now we are back to square one. We will always find area's of profit. So what is realistic and what is.... bull. And how can we tell the difference?


Overcomplicating the situation? Yes. Is punting simple? No. Is ability simple. Yes. You either have it. Or you don't.

So if we are an accurate form analysist how can we be a poor/even/just profitable punter?

Well studying is easier than punting.

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Now we have these 1000's of races in data and we have our area's of profit and loss. What do we do with them?

Maybe we just need to work on what we are good at. And stop trying to be better at things we will never be. Which is where our PRIDE comes into play. Sometimes the pride is to blame. "I can turn this around". No....no you can't. Be realistic. Because your crap.

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So what have I learnt?

Analyse to the best of your ability.

What issues do I have?

How do I punt to the best of my ability?

Are there any answers??

Am I losing? No.

So what's the problem?

The problem is, I want to believe in the results. And I don't.


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What is the difference between profit and the realistic world? Does history provide us with answers for the future?


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What are your punting issues? And can we help.

And NO. This isn't about trying to pick winners. This is something more.

 

[brjafi]

would love to help oaksnaf....but i cant, i dont bet on races, because im crap in that area.....you make some very good valid points though. it just seems as though your saying not to bet, chase your losses and lose more. i could be reading what your saying very wrong but thats what i see as your conclusion.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Punting is all about finding an edge.

Finding an edge is exceptionally hard. Well to be honest, I am unsure on how you would know that you have found an edge.

Profit can be just profit. You have a win. You have a loss. Without an edge existing.

For me to be a true profitable punter. I need to find an edge. But I don't know when I have one, or how to use it.


We can look at the long term betfair markets like WORLD CUP 2010. And find an edge withing the market for LAY punters. But how we use that edge. Well that is something that is beyond me.

Maybe Jan Juc can help with this:

Back: 104%
Lay: 98.7%

You know the lay edge exists. But I fail to see how I can use it.

And frustrates me.

 

[Jan Juc]

Looking briefly at those book percentages, in layman's terms, to collect $100 you'd need spend $104 (not profitable) backing everything or $98.70 (profitable) laying everything.

This is hoping you stake things perfectly and get all your bets on at once without being queue-jumped or prices disappearing.

This is before commission as well - bang, there goes the profitable (lay) situation.

 

[brjafi]

the best edge you could of had would have been laying whoever against geelong the past two years.....im angry i didn't do so myself....then again those odds would of been very dull

 

[Daytripper]

I try as much as possible to stick to events where there is a clear form reference. For example, whilst I love my golf betting I generally will only bet on US Tour events between April and August. The golfers will all have played a few events and you can see how they are performing. Betting on the Australian Masters this week is fraught with danger. Most of the players have :

A) not played for a month or so
B) In Australia on a holiday or working holiday
c) coming off Northern Hemisphere form where the conditions have been cold and windy - ie everything is completely different.

Its absolute guesswork trying to pick a winner or value selection - Tiger excepted.

Tennis is another one. The Oz Open always throws up some weird results and its not hard to see why. Most of the players go on a break from November until Xmas time and the form line is almost impossible to judge in early January. Again, like golf I only get involved in tennis between March and the US Open. After that I put the cue in the rack.

On the gallops I try and avoid races with first up horses so I generally stick to races between 1600m and 2400m. Sure some horses have good exposed first up form but you as a punter have no idea what it has been doing in work or if a horse with poor unexposed first up form has been working the place down in private.

In summing up try not to get involved in events where you are 'guessing' what a competitor will do. Or if you must, just have a small interest bet.

Save your big bets for events where you are certain you have most of the form and outcomes covered.

 

[Ted]

Great post Oaksnaf.

I have a share in a horse that ran this week. He beat the course record by a significant margin. Get your head around that - he was lengths faster than every single horse that had run that distance on that track over all the previous decades.

But so was one other horse this week and we lost by a short half head. You can't win.

 

[Philzsay]

So if we haven't studied for a race, then why do we feel the need to bet on it? And why do we feel the need to post a bet? Especially if we don't actually back it.

This is where discipline and and patience come into the equation. For so many punters it is hard to resist the urge to have a bet if they are about to watch a race or sport.

For example, I wonder how many people are having a bet on the golf this week, when otherwise they wouldn't normally bet on golf?

Not having a bet on an event can often the best punting decision to make; but admitting to yourself that you actually know little about the true form of an event is very hard to do!

Much more harder and requiring plenty of discipline is the situation of resisting having a bet when you have invested a lot of time studying up on an event, but there is no value to be had on the market.

Makes me wonder whether psychologists make for good or poor punters?

 

[Philzsay]

What is the difference between profit and the realistic world? Does history provide us with answers for the future?

IMO If history was the perfect predictor for future events then there would be computer systems developed that actually 100% guaranteed profit. But it is not.

Hence I believe their is always an element of skill and intuition when it comes to betting and that the human element will always be needed to be successful.

However history can be a very useful guide. Looking back at your past performance and where you did well or where you performed poorly can be very beneficial. But it is not infallible.

The trick is working out what level of attention to pay to it. What is the right balance?

Obviously if you discovered that every bet you placed at exactly $7 you got right and then decided to only bet on $7 chances in the future is fraught with danger. Likewise ignoring the fact that every single bet you put on the NFL was a loser, but you keep on betting on NFL is just as stupid.

 

[Oaksnaf]

However history can be a very useful guide. Looking back at your past performance and where you did well or where you performed poorly can be very beneficial. But it is not infallible.

The trick is working out what level of attention to pay to it. What is the right balance?

That is right Philzsay. But what is the right balance? Can't answer a question with another question....

Hard to define specifics in this instance.

This is where discipline and and patience come into the equation. For so many punters it is hard to resist the urge to have a bet if they are about to watch a race or sport.

Discipline
Patience
Money Management

Studying for two days straight without a single bet due to LACK of value. Can be painful if you enjoy a bet. Which can make you look at the exotic betting.

But with so many detailed results, it can be hard to compute mentally what the necessary process is to be carried out.
And to equate VALUE into an exotic in greyhound racing, well.... is basically pointless because the pools are so small and they change rapidly in the dying seconds.

Thus you could be punting into UNDERS without even knowing it. And how wants that?

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In summing up try not to get involved in events where you are 'guessing' what a competitor will do. Or if you must, just have a small interest bet.

Save your big bets for events where you are certain you have most of the form and outcomes covered.

Daytripper is right. This is important to remember. If you don't know the two teams/the horses or the greyhounds in the race. Avoid it. Because you can't learn everything in one hour of study.

So how do you learn? By watching and studying..... but studying without betting of course. And in 12 months we are going to be filled with more knowledge. Hopefully the right knowledge.


My issue with this is: I am most knowledgable in the races that everyone else is betting in. And this is where the form experts come into play and will know a lot more than me and thus the value is taken out of the pool.

Plus. Just because I know every greyhound runner quite well in a single race, doesn't mean that I can find a winner. Sometimes you study the races you know well and end up, knowing no more.

You really have to understand why you have a runner at a certain price. And if you cannot explain that price. Then you don't quite understand what your doing.

This is where I want to take a more mathamatical approach to punting. But I have an issue with math. I am not strong in that department.

Looking briefly at those book percentages, in layman's terms, to collect $100 you'd need spend $104 (not profitable) backing everything or $98.70 (profitable) laying everything.

This is hoping you stake things perfectly and get all your bets on at once without being queue-jumped or prices disappearing.

This is before commission as well - bang, there goes the profitable (lay) situation.

Jan Juc. Does this edge in laying exist in all runners? So if we LAY all teams except ONE, does this mean that we have a greater return than BACKING ONE?

Also:

#1 $15w $3.30p
#2 $15w $2.60p

If we are to LAY the $2.60 PLACE bet. We are surely finding an anomalie?

So without knowing anything about that race, we have found an advantage.


This must be good. BUT if we were to do a market on this race...

#1 @ $21
#2 @ $12

We have OVERS in our market. Does this mean that we are incorrect. And should we A) Bet $8 on #2 WIN or B) Lay $2.60 place or C) Do both?



I would love to be a psychologist and that is partly the reason why I am so interested in punting!!

 

[Jan Juc]

It's beer o'clock, my brain hurts.

 

[dr nick]

I would love to be a psychologist and that is partly the reason why I am so interested in punting!!

ugh, i couldn't think of a worse profession.

Most of the psychologists i have ever met are more than a little mad, most are on the highly strung side and I would imagine make terrible punters.

 

[dr nick]

Looking briefly at those book percentages, in layman's terms, to collect $100 you'd need spend $104 (not profitable) backing everything or $98.70 (profitable) laying everything.

This is hoping you stake things perfectly and get all your bets on at once without being queue-jumped or prices disappearing.

This is before commission as well - bang, there goes the profitable (lay) situation.

yeah but if you lay EVERY selection guaranteeing a profit, they only take 5% of what profit that was.

But anyway, you're not going to snare every price simultaneously, and even if you could, there'd only be small amounts on offer.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Small amount or not. Locking in an edge, is locking in an edge.

People want to bet NOW. And that is precisly why LAY punting can be beneficial.

There is money to be made here without knowing anything about form. And that part is exciting. As it takes out a lot of time and a lot of guesswork.

 

[dr nick]

Small amount or not. Locking in an edge, is locking in an edge.

People want to bet NOW. And that is precisly why LAY punting can be beneficial.

There is money to be made here without knowing anything about form. And that part is exciting. As it takes out a lot of time and a lot of guesswork.

I believe if you've layed at "value", some people fall into the trap of 'locking in a small profit' at the expense of a much larger profit. The only times I would hedge and lock in a profit if the back odds were now overvalued, or if there was too much at stake not to hedge.

Of course if your betting on market flucs and know nothing of the market to begin with it would make sense to lock in very small profits.