Preview Round 11 - Hawthorn v Brisbane 1.10pm Sunday -Marvel

[ZoBlitz]

Gameday thread is up.

 

[Section 5]

I am still for Fort coming in because Hippy is missing this week.
I would mostly run Fort off the bench as ruck relief for Oscar.
Oscars TOG average is 80% so that's 20% TOG to start with for Fort in the ruck. I don't want Jo in for 20% this week.
With Oscar to have small stints resting forward let's say 10% that's another 10% for Fort as the main ruck.
Going on 2024 average TOG, Fort to relieve Jo for 6% when he is resting and half of Morris 30% resting time off the ground.
That gives Fort a total of around 51% TOG being 20+10+6+15. Thats 30% Ruck and 21% forward.

For one week i would be happy for Jo to play forward 96-100% of the time.
If Jo goes into the ruck as normal (20%) asking Morris to hold down the number 1 KPF or number 2 behind Rayner is too much.
Morris really knows where those goal post are and is very efficient with his limited disposals.
In his 2 full game his disposals were only 3 & 9 with marks being 0 & 3 & goals 2 & 2.

I am not sure if Bailey will play but if he does it will be at the expense of Brain, and someone gets the sub position.

Will be interesting to see who they go with be it small or tall and what the plan on game day will be.

 

[SpecialBruce]

If Bruce gets dropped anytime this year I will riot

 

[KissKiss]

I expect Fagan to do this, but I wish he wouldn’t. I really don’t rate Fort. I think he’ll be a liability replacing Hipwood. The only thing he has in common with Hipwood is his height. He lacks mobility, Argo, tackling pressure, forward craft.

The argument that we don’t want to risk Joe in the ruck all game if Oscar goes down is fallacious. We’ve been in that position all year. If Oscar goes down, we never put Hippy in the ruck. Hipwood is a forward. If he’s out, he should be replaced by a forward. Not a reserve Ruckman.

This year we have used Hipwood as a ruck a few times in the forward 50 (dont think I've seen him at a centre stoppage though). I only noted it as it was so rare to have seen Hipwood take a ruck contest as I assume we have been careful of his knee and probably have better options in most games

 

[KissKiss]

If Bruce gets dropped anytime this year I will riot

He'll need to lift his game time a bit to stay in the team once guys like Ashcroft are fit. I really like what Ive seen but he's definitely closer to being dropped once others are fit

 

[Grasshopper17]

Bailey Daniher Ah Chee
Cameron Rayner Lohmann

If pressure is on the ball carrier and we can't lower eyes, they'll be challenged. Get the ball into the F50 direct or on the ground and this fleet will absolutely carve up the Hawks backline. Have watched them closely - including that time Elixuh outed me as a Hawks supporter at the Suns game - and if there is one area their backs struggle is when the ball hits the deck.

Interesting analysis. I have seen very little of Hawthorn this year I must admit, but I note they have moved away from their high-handball game of last year.

Just looking at the last 5 weeks, they are #3 in the comp for kicking efficiency (ie hitting targets), so if we give them the ball too often they will use it. I guess this goes hand in hand with the fact they have on average the least number of turnovers per game and concede the 4th least number of intercept marks.

Interestingly they also have the 3rd most marks inside 50 per game, and are also 3rd in the comp for generating shots per inside 50 (51.4%).

They're also #4 in the comp for scoring from kick-ins.

It all adds up to saying that once they get the ball, it can be hard to get it back off them. So the key to winning the game on Sunday will be to stop them getting it in the first place. We had this problem big time last year. We won clearances comprehensively but got destroyed kicking long to contests.

On that, they also lose the 3rd least defensive one-on-ones in the comp. As a forward line we aren't noted for our contested marking anyway so we will need to change angles going inside 50 and possibly kick to grass, which ties in with Nunez's comments.

We lost last year because we were dreadfully slow, and Fagan and others even acknowledged in the week following that we hadn't prepared adequately to play them. Hawthorn that day had almost as many handballs as kicks (215-211), and even tho they have not favoured that style this year, it would not surprise me to see them revert to it against us on Sunday. We'll need to be ready for anything, which historically we have not been against Hawthorn.

All these data points essentially lend themselves to going in with a smaller forward line in Hipwood's absence, which is a quandary for the match committee given Morris' inexperience, and places a heavy burden on Joe.

 

[briztoon]

Interesting analysis. I have seen very little of Hawthorn this year I must admit, but I note they have moved away from their high-handball game of last year.

Just looking at the last 5 weeks, they are #3 in the comp for kicking efficiency (ie hitting targets), so if we give them the ball too often they will use it. I guess this goes hand in hand with the fact they have on average the least number of turnovers per game and concede the 4th least number of intercept marks.

Interestingly they also have the 3rd most marks inside 50 per game, and are also 3rd in the comp for generating shots per inside 50 (51.4%).

They're also #4 in the comp for scoring from kick-ins.

It all adds up to saying that once they get the ball, it can be hard to get it back off them. So the key to winning the game on Sunday will be to stop them getting it in the first place. We had this problem big time last year. We won clearances comprehensively but got destroyed kicking long to contests.

On that, they also lose the 3rd least defensive one-on-ones in the comp. As a forward line we aren't noted for our contested marking anyway so we will need to change angles going inside 50 and possibly kick to grass, which ties in with Nunez's comments.

We lost last year because we were dreadfully slow, and Fagan and others even acknowledged in the week following that we hadn't prepared adequately to play them. Hawthorn that day had almost as many handballs as kicks (215-211), and even tho they have not favoured that style this year, it would not surprise me to see them revert to it against us on Sunday. We'll need to be ready for anything, which historically we have not been against Hawthorn.

All these data points essentially lend themselves to going in with a smaller forward line in Hipwood's absence, which is a quandary for the match committee given Morris' inexperience, and places a heavy burden on Joe.

Mitchell is one of the few coaches that really changes up his teams style of play, dependant on the opposition. Both offensive and defensive.

Will be interesting what they throw at us this year.

 

[Section 5]

The constant in the Hawks 7 losses is they lost the tackle count in all 7 games.
In their 3 wins they won the tackle count in 2 of the 3 wins.

The Lions have only had 1 more tackle than the Hawks for the year.
So, it might be a battle to get on top in that area.

 

[Section 5]

Finally, some stability for the Lions with no fresh injuries and confirmation dynamic forward Zac Bailey (ankle) will return. Eric Hipwood will miss Sunday's match against Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium through suspension, opening the door for either Darcy Fort or former Hawk Brandon Ryan to come in alongside Joe Daniher. If Chris Fagan wanted to get radical, he could bring in Bailey as a direct swap for Hipwood and go extra small, although that would be tempting fate with an early injury to a big man. James Tunstill and Jarryd Lyons continue to excel in the VFL, while Deven Robertson is also a chance. - Michael Whiting

Last week's sub: Shadeau Brain (replaced Hugh McCluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

)

In the mix, R11: Who's under the pump, pushing for selection?

Our reporters predict all the ins and outs ahead of round 11

www.afl.com.au

 

[Nathan Barley]

The constant in the Hawks 7 losses is they lost the tackle count in all 7 games.
In their 3 wins they won the tackle count in 2 of the 3 wins.

The Lions have only had 1 more tackle than the Hawks for the year.
So, it might be a battle to get on top in that area.

We lost the tackle count by a very large margin against Richmond

 

[Nunez]

We lost the tackle count by a very large margin against Richmond

Happens when you have the bulk of the ball I guess.

 

[Elixuh]

Finally, some stability for the Lions with no fresh injuries and confirmation dynamic forward Zac Bailey (ankle) will return. Eric Hipwood will miss Sunday's match against Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium through suspension, opening the door for either Darcy Fort or former Hawk Brandon Ryan to come in alongside Joe Daniher. If Chris Fagan wanted to get radical, he could bring in Bailey as a direct swap for Hipwood and go extra small, although that would be tempting fate with an early injury to a big man. James Tunstill and Jarryd Lyons continue to excel in the VFL, while Deven Robertson is also a chance. - Michael Whiting

Last week's sub: Shadeau Brain (replaced Hugh McCluggage)

In the mix, R11: Who's under the pump, pushing for selection?

Our reporters predict all the ins and outs ahead of round 11

www.afl.com.au

I wouldn’t be opposed to Bailey replacing Hipwood and Fort sub.

 

[BuntonRules]

Bailey Daniher Ah Chee
Cameron Rayner Lohmann

If pressure is on the ball carrier and we can't lower eyes, they'll be challenged. Get the ball into the F50 direct or on the ground and this fleet will absolutely carve up the Hawks backline. Have watched them closely - including that time Elixuh outed me as a Hawks supporter at the Suns game - and if there is one area their backs struggle is when the ball hits the deck.

Logan on the bench? I would.

 

[Nunez]

Logan on the bench? I would.

Sorry, yep Logan would be part of that rotation.

 

[Section 5]

We lost the tackle count by a very large margin against Richmond

Yes, i know.
It was just that the tackle stat was consistent 7 from 7 in all the Hawks losses.

Put a lot of pressure on a young team for 4 quarters tackle wise and they will find it hard to win the game.

 

[Jivlain]

The two go hand in hand. Indeed, I've highlighted defensive application as what I believe is one of the 4 key pillars of scoring in the modern game.

Even the flashy Kai Lohmann has made a point of emphasising this in every single interview he's given of late. SENQ Brekky last week, his press conference this morning, AFL 360 tonight. It's being absolutely drummed into him and it's making him a much more well rounded player, and that in turn is having a positive impact on the scoreboard.

I think one of the big improvements in Kai's game specifically we've seen in the last couple weeks is him going absolutely frantic for defensive application. It's intensely brought him into the game and been a massive positive for him and the team overall

 

[CarterS]

While we may have a good record at Marvel I dont think we deserve to be -15.5 favourites

 

[Dalions]

We lost the tackle count by a very large margin against Richmond

That would be because they barely had the ball.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Looking at Hawthorn’s backline, they aren’t very tall. You’ve got 2024 debutant Philips as a genuine tall but then Frost is 194 and the next guy is 190. Feel like we should be playing Rayner as a CHF and make sure Bailey understands that his job is to be at the front of every pack.

Hawthorn have played smaller all year but for this game will see the best structure all year with.

Ethan Phillips 197cm
Sam Frost 195cm
Jack Scrimshaw 194cm
Josh Weddle 193cm
James Sicily 190cm

Barring Phillips, all of these players also play on smalls, Sicily will be unleashed in this structure with Weddle also likely to have more license. Frost and Phillips at CHB and FB. Scrimshaw taking another tall or can play smaller, has played CHB all year and shone.

Brisbane could look to bring Fort or Ryan to maintain structure with Daniher and Logan Morris.

Daniher Frost
Fort/Ryan Phillips
Morris Scrimshaw

Brisbane could also look to go in smaller, with Rayner perhaps playing third tall with Daniher and Morris.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Bailey Daniher Ah Chee
Cameron Rayner Lohmann

If pressure is on the ball carrier and we can't lower eyes, they'll be challenged. Get the ball into the F50 direct or on the ground and this fleet will absolutely carve up the Hawks backline. Have watched them closely - including that time Elixuh outed me as a Hawks supporter at the Suns game - and if there is one area their backs struggle is when the ball hits the deck.

Let’s say your 7 forwards are and this is how the matchups end up
Bailey - Daniher - Ah Chee
Impey - Frost - Sicily
Cameron - Morris - Lohman
Mitchell - Phillips - Scrimshaw
Rayner
Weddle

Amon will also play down there as a small running defender as will Hardwick who starts forward and will move back if needed.

 

[Nunez]

Let’s say your 7 forwards are and this is how the matchups end up
Bailey - Daniher - Ah Chee
Impey - Frost - Sicily
Cameron - Morris - Lohman
Mitchell - Phillips - Scrimshaw
Rayner
Weddle

Amon will also play down there as a small running defender as will Hardwick who starts forward and will move back if needed.

Regardless of what we end up doing, I think we'll need clean entries and if we get them our forwards should smash your backs.

IF is the key word there. Has been great seeing the Hawks Midfield fire again with Day back. Suspect Dunkley will give Day plenty of attention at stoppages this week, though.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Regardless of what we end up doing, I think we'll need clean entries and if we get them our forwards should smash your backs.

IF is the key word there. Has been great seeing the Hawks Midfield fire again with Day back. Suspect Dunkley will give Day plenty of attention at stoppages this week, though.

Midfield will be key for how the game goes, Hawthorn belted Port for 3 quarters in the middle, before a disaster last quarter all over trying to hold on.

Newcombe, Day, MacKenzie, Worpel, Nash and Moore are the midfielders rotating through.

The first two are key and Moore has been a dynamite in there. Worpel/Nash do the dirty work and Nash the defensive stuff.

Against Port Hawthorn were +26 disposals, +17 contested possessions, +10 clearances & +19 inside 50s for 3 quarters.

Brisbane will want to apply pressure especially early to set the tone, matchups are one thing but beat Hawthorn in the middle and then just look to win or half every contest. Once they have it it’s clean ball inside 50, any team won’t be able to defend it when the Lions are up and about at their best but especially Hawthorn who look to play assertively.

If Brisbane can’t lower their eyes it’ll be long day with the height Hawthorn possess and the run/dash & slingshot game Hawthorn plays from D50.

 

[rye]

Midfield will be key for how the game goes, Hawthorn belted Port for 3 quarters in the middle, before a disaster last quarter all over trying to hold on.

Newcombe, Day, MacKenzie, Worpel, Nash and Moore are the midfielders rotating through.

The first two are key and Moore has been a dynamite in there. Worpel/Nash do the dirty work and Nash the defensive stuff.

Against Port Hawthorn were +26 disposals, +17 contested possessions, +10 clearances & +19 inside 50s for 3 quarters.

Brisbane will want to apply pressure especially early to set the tone, matchups are one thing but beat Hawthorn in the middle and then just look to win or half every contest. Once they have it it’s clean ball inside 50, any team won’t be able to defend it when the Lions are up and about at their best but especially Hawthorn who look to play assertively.

If Brisbane can’t lower their eyes it’ll be long day with the height Hawthorn possess and the run/dash & slingshot game Hawthorn plays from D50.

does maginess come into the team for zorko

 

[Dewyyyyy]

does maginess come into the team for zorko

An option but I doubt it.

I’d say Sicily and Scrimshaw return, Serong out and I’d say Breust out, someone to sub and Hardwick mainly forward.

 

[Dalions]

An option but I doubt it.

I’d say Sicily and Scrimshaw return, Serong out and I’d say Breust out, someone to sub and Hardwick mainly forward.

If someone is going to send a hard tag to Zorko it will be Mitchell.

 

[Elixuh]

Mitchell can overcoach which is good for us. Seen him do it a few times this year and get it way way wrong.

Hopefully he has come up with an over complicated strategy for us this week.