Round Seven Theory

[Greyman05]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/roundseven-theory-to-rule-again-20120513-1ykxt.html

I found Rohan Connolly's article interesting, especially in light of comments on other threads. 14 wins to get in the eight. There's some improving to do.

I'll never write off this team but it is hard to see where the other 10 wins will come from given the teams we play for the remainder of the season.

It all starts round 8 I guess.

 

[topic97]

Nup, I dont buy into it about the Cats as yet.
If you look at the ladder, we are only percentage out of the 8 - not wins, and at current are only 2 wins and a bit of percentage behind top of the ladder.

Its not lightyears away, and when you factor in that we have only faced 2 of the top 8 so could possibly beat the other 6 to bring that margin back we arent in dire straits yet.

And last nights game goes to show that this season is as competitive as ever and no team in the 8 should be overly confident of a win going in to any game - who tipped the saints to beat Carlton?!

I think at round 7 and only 2 games off first all talk of Geelong in serious trouble is extremely premature - sure we arent playing as we would like, but everyone knows how quickly this team can turn its performances around!!

Ill reserve judgement on our season just before the bye!!

 

[fpm84]

Most members of the football media have the attention span and memory of a week. Last week, St Kilda was overrun by Hawthorn and the talk was that they needed to rebuild. Last night, they beat Carlton and a couple of young players played well - this morning the papers are saying that Watters has rejuvenated the side and that their premiership window is still open.

Likewise Sydney the other week - they beat Hawthorn and were declared premiership favourites, Kennedy was the best midfielder in the league, etc. All of a sudden they lose two in a row and they are pretenders with not enough class to make top 4.

We were going along OK until the Adelaide game - in no better or worse form than Collingwood or Hawthorn overall. Yes, the Adelaide game was a shocker but we have consistently bounced back from games like that over the past five seasons and there's no reason to think we won't this week particularly with a couple of key inclusions.

As for the round seven theory, we are only a game off fourth spot at the moment. This is one of the most even seasons I can recall, and I expect most of the teams above us to drop a few more games throughout the year (hopefully to us). If we beat Collingwood we will be back in the 8, and I would expect us to stay there for a while.

 

[CatTricks]

Arent Hawthorn and St Kilda sitting 4-3 aswell?

 

[topic97]

As for the round seven theory, we are only a game off fourth spot at the moment. This is one of the most even seasons I can recall, and I expect most of the teams above us to drop a few more games throughout the year (hopefully to us). If we beat Collingwood we will be back in the 8, and I would expect us to stay there for a while.

Thats the thing isnt it?! This has to be one of the most even seasons in recent memory - at this stage there isnt one single team that you would pencil in to dominate the competition, and I think its going to be one of those ones that teams in the top 8 could all of a sudden drop 2 straight at any given time and all of the sudden those outside the 8 are back on level pegging.

Heck, Blues have Adelaide next week, thats a highly looseable game for them.
If they lost that and we win friday all of a sudden we are equal on wins so where does that leave our disastrous season?!

Arent Hawthorn and St Kilda sitting 4-3 aswell?

Yep.
We are only % outside the 8 so I dont see how the round 7 theory applies to us to be honest.

 

[vinum coupe]

I will be amazed if the 6th placed side has 16 wins.

 

[footscore]

Heck, Blues have Adelaide next week, thats a highly looseable game for them.

This seems to be a reoccurring pattern this year, teams play some of the best footy they have in years against us but front up the following week and look a very different outfit.

Crows over here in Melbourne are a completely different side just like Sydney and West Coast.
Carlton will likely belt them by 50 points to again have us scratching the head thinking.."what the hell"

 

[topic97]

This seems to be a reoccurring pattern this year, teams play some of the best footy they have in years against us but front up the following week and look a very different outfit.

Crows over here in Melbourne are a completely different side just like Sydney and West Coast.
Carlton will likely belt them by 50 points to again have us scratching the head thinking.."what the hell"

And thats the thing, this season is sooooooo competitive and even that I cant believe how any "expert" would be willing to write off a champion team when they are only percentage out of the 8 at this point.

Spot on too VC, this season is too even for teams outside the 4 to get 16 wins - the way its going you might see teams in the 4 even struggle to get 16 themselves when you consider teams right down to 13th have a chance to beat their opponent on any given day regardless of who they are!!

 

[topic97]

God, I just had a look at the draw for the top 4 and 3 out of those 4 teams could well drop a few in a row with their next few games before the bye - bombers have a pretty easy run leading into the bye but then a hard run after than and could drop games in a row.

And if you look at the corresponding draws for the rest of the 8 and very few teams have games that you could put them down as certains - apart from obvious matches against melb, port, gws & gc - even some of them arent foregone conclusions!!

All we need is a good patch of stringing a few wins in a row and all of a sudden we are well back into the mix.

I dont think the round 7 rule will apply this season to be honest!!

 

[year of the cat]

With Carlton losing last night his article is already redundant.

 

[footscore]

I reckon the other intangible with this 7 theory is that people can quite easily get carried away with form or ladder positions but don't discount the 3 wins last year as we all saw Collingwood absolutely concede in the 4th quarter of the 2011 GF.
That's massive, it's a different story to go down fighting but to mentally give in to another team is something that takes a lot longer to rectify than just a whole new season.

What made things a little harder for those Magpie players was the fact they thought they had us beat after the 2010 preliminary final but to turn it around yet again is pretty demoralizing and although it will be different personal on Friday night, there will come a time in this game where those Collingwood players will begin to doubt themselves and that's something they definitely can't afford to contemplate because no question Geelong will be up for this one and we saw what happened to Hawthorn in RD2.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Yeah, I saw the thread on Bay 13.

Was pretty funny.

 

[BotsMaster]

Yeah, I saw the thread on Bay 13.

Was pretty funny.

Classic case of self pwnage

 

[Pollywaffle]

One thing for sure. If we do make the eight at seasons' end, NOBODY is going to look forward to playing the cats (no matter what our lead up form is)

 

[kickazz]

Round seven theory basically combines random sampling with new season insights.

Well if you take a random sample of one third (7/22 is almost 1/3) and triple the totals you can get an estimate of where we'll be in the end.

Works out as 12-10 or 13-9

But is it a random sample?

Consider:

Opposition - I'd say the sample is easier. Only one finalist from last year.
Venues - Harder. Three interstate trips, only three home games.
Cattle - I'd like to think we are managing things so the second and third thirds of the season we have a healthier list.
Timing - 2 breaks of fewer than 7 days.

Any other factors to consider?

Compare the next two blocks of 7 games:

rnd 8 -15: (7 games, 1 bye)
Oppostion - 3 2011 finalists.
Venues - ONLY 2 home games (albeit genuine KP home games) and another 2 interstate trips.
Cattle - I'd speculate our list being a little healthier
Timing - 2 breaks of fewer than 7 days

rnd 15-21
Opposition - 5 2011 finalists
Venues - 5 Home games (hooray). 2 KP, 1 G, 2 Etihad. Only 1 interstate trip.
Cattle - ahh just let me find my crystal ball .....
Timing - 3 breaks of fewer than 7 days.

We finish up with a finalist (Sydney) at Kardinia Park.


Overall conclusion:
A tough start to the season travel wise, but would have liked to have picked up one more game against a 2011 non-finalist. North is the one that sticks out.
A lot more home games toward the end of the season should see us finish strong, even though that's when we face the toughest competition.

I know basing this on last year's ladder is flawed, and you need to look closer at 'home' games (still think we are sus at Etihad)

So basing things purely on how representative our first 7 games were, I'd say we can be one of the sides that move up into the 8 'after round 7'. It may be a late run though. 2 home games in the next 7 is tough.

Looking at how we are playing though, I think there are concerns surrounding intensity and game plan. To be expected with the new guys we are playing, but it needs to get better.

Can't wait for the Pies game!

 

[topic97]

I guess the huge thing this year is the fact that if we do get into a decent position in finals but still have to play 3 games to make the granny, you dont have the same situation as in 2010(or the last 5 years) that you have to face a team coming off a break that is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.

Couple that with the fact that if the top 4 stays the way it is, you will have 2 teams that havent gone deep into september having a week off and sometimes with the inexperience that could cause them to falter.

I think the worst possible outcome, should we not make the 4 but make the top 6, would be for either Pies, Saints or Hawks to get a rest week as they are well seasoned as to how to handle them.

All the other teams in the 8 it could bring them back a bit - either that or improve them more, but its something to factor in.

 

[H E Pennypacker]

And thats the thing, this season is sooooooo competitive and even that I cant believe how any "expert" would be willing to write off a champion team when they are only percentage out of the 8 at this point.

Spot on too VC, this season is too even for teams outside the 4 to get 16 wins - the way its going you might see teams in the 4 even struggle to get 16 themselves when you consider teams right down to 13th have a chance to beat their opponent on any given day regardless of who they are!!

The last season I remember being this close was 1997, where we finished 2nd on % to St Kilda with something like 15 wins only, then proceeded to lose to 7th placed North then 5th placed Adelaide to be out of it. The finals systems was flawed then, but I take heart from the fact that a team from 5-8th was able to snatch it in such an even competition. Scotty is right, we have the experience and attitude to do it if we need to.

 

[topic97]

The last season I remember being this close was 1997, where we finished 2nd on % to St Kilda with something like 15 wins only, then proceeded to lose to 7th placed North then 5th placed Adelaide to be out of it. The finals systems was flawed then, but I take heart from the fact that a team from 5-8th was able to snatch it in such an even competition. Scotty is right, we have the experience and attitude to do it if we need to.

Thats an excellent example.
On that point, I dont see how scribes can state that teams will need 16 wins to make the 8 - the way it is now I just dont see how any team outside the top 4 can do it, heck even the top 4 may struggle with 16, apart from the crows who have 4 very soft wins.

For probably the top 12 teams, the only games they can really pencil in is any encounters with GWS and GC. Everything else is a 50/50 on who plays better on game day!!

On a side note, has anyone had a play around with the ladder predictor for the rest of the season? Shit its hard to pick.....