Autopsy Saints roll the Cats.

[SG34]

I looked at the Geelong board last week. They seemed to think he is finished and needs to be nursed to 300 games.

Ah..that makes sense then. I was thinking..what? Pretty classy player Duncan. I don’t notice the subtle stuff that makes players like Mitch Duncan no longer good enough, but the age is there, so I assumed it was based on there is no longer potential upside in him. Maybe he was going to go the Ivan Lendl route, keep on the circuit, doing very nicely to win fourth and third round games. Maybe Seb Ross was also going to go down that road.

 

[gringo2011]

"When did our rebuild start" is a common question or statement.
There was the first one which was built on Dunny, Acres, Longer, Hicky, Paddy, Goddard, Billings, Gresh, Coff, Clark, Clav, Pato, Marshall, Wilkie, Sinclair.
That one failed spectacularly, we salvaged only 4 players from it.
Then there was the one that started in 2018 with the drafting of King and topping up which is your favourite subject. That also failed.
Then there was the one initiated by Ross and SOS which probably started on the day of the "leaked" audio from the practice game "I can't take this lot anywhere"
I've argued with Stav over +/- 12 months from that date, but that's roughly how long we've been rebuilding for, not 14 years.
For the first 11 of those 14 years we were simply ****ing it up.
Habitually saddling the current mob with the failures of the previous is so bloody tedious.

I'd say that's probably close to accurate but the club changed direction after Chito and Windhager came in. 2021 was the youth lead rebuild. Lethlean had his rebuild but before that we were rejigging anyway.

Also I have been complaining since about 2015 about drafting. It is the fan boy's favourite subject, telling us how well done it was.

When you blow a rebuild you don't start topping up with B grade talent. You go hard at the bottom for a few years and do it properly. If you were trying to make a rebuild long and painful with less pay off that's the model. Carlton and Essendon both did it too. They tried to bury their shame under a pile of mediocre signings to show the fans how popular they were without doing any of the herd work first. Carlton improved when they went back to doing the draft build and got premium talent in.

Essendon tried it but butchered a lot of their picks so far and have gone back to topping up. If some of that youth comes on they should improve anyway. They have a lot there they just need to maximise it.

 

[gringo2011]

No they haven't. They got handout, after handout, after handout. Adelaide, Brizzy, Hawks have done the work, not Norff. They squibbed it big time.

They chose a model of sacrificing current talent for the future. It is probably going to work for them. The Saints copped it in the old days for the same thing and we got priority picks.

 

[gringo2011]

Time rushes by and will we pause to ask ourselves how that happened against Geelong?

With a ragtag midfield we beat a team that was good enough to leave out a player the calibre of Mitch Duncan, even when Bailey-smith was struck down! Truth be told we were a toe poke and a tad of inexperience (young Geelong players bombing forward in the last three mins) from losing that.

But we won and how come these dice all rolled out six?? How come..
1) Mitchito comes back 100% - straight back to 2023 form!
2) Ro was all cooked Round one but had been touched by the magic wand and he is statue resurrected!
3) Jack Sinclair is all go! Go go!
4) The Irishman is standing in the middle of a tempest and is as like a rock!

What a remarkable turn of events.

Any other way we lose!

How come?

Now in a day or two we might come back to earth a bit and realise that even North and the Tigers are no more gimmes.

Absolutely anything could happen next week.

Actually thought that was way better than 2023 form for the Chito. He looks like a real BDE alpha dog now. He always looked like a humble kid that couldn't quite believe what he'd done when he did good stuff.

Now he looks like he owns it. He only kicked 2.1 but it felt like he was about to crack the game open. Geelong had two players holding him at every contest after the first quarter and he still competed.

If he plays like that he'll have a few 5 or 6 goal games this season.

 

[gringo2011]

Yep have been but worried bout Windhager….does he have another gear
He does
He just now needs to work on consistency
He’s also quite smart with ball in hand gets it away not often rag dolled
He’ll be a very good mid
Agree re Owens …IF he could improve that kicking 10% he’d be a genuine star
His contest work is class though

I've noticed that Windhager tends to do really good stuff when under the most pressure. It's like he doesn't have time to think and instinct takes over.....and it's usually the right one.

Off one game I think he actually looks better in that same role as a young Jack Steele did and he was a handful of votes off a Brownlow. He's raised his potential ceiling a fair bit off that match.

 

[Saints TV]

A breakdown on how St Kilda rolled Geelong.

 

[gringo2011]

You are blinded by Norths weekend win as to where they really are. It was only a week early they got comfortably beaten by a half strength Footscray.

Adelaide different kettle of fish. Why? Simply because they went hard in the offseason adding Cumming Peatling and ANB to what they have.

The previous few years they landed big fish. Rankine and Dawson.

They still managed to draft:
Thilthorpe pick 2 2020
Rachele pick 6 2021
Soligo pick 36 2021
Curtain pick 8 2023
Draper pick 4 2024

And blew a pick 11 on Pedlar in 2020.
Just solid recruiting over 5 years and has led to this season.

For comparison:

2021
NWM p11
Owens p33
Windhager p47

2022
Pou p10
Caminiti rookie

2023
Wilson p18

2024
Travaglia p8
Tauru p10

Big signings:
Henry ?


So, in comparison. We have ALOT OF young talent that is still finding its way. Might be another year off.

Haven’t had the success the crows have had via trade or free agency.

Haven’t had the absolute pinnacle picks they have in that time.

BUT.

Add TDK in. Another aswell?

Find a good one or two from:

Keeler Collard Hastie Ari Garcia O’Connell Hall Barrat Boxshall Said Dodson

And our own narrative changes big time too.

Post round 2.

- we have used the equal most players thus far. We need another 2 changes this week aswell. So likely a Travaglia debut. Carrol Henry?

- we are below the league average for average selected side age. We still haven’t played.

Travaglia Tauru Henry Carrol King Pou Barrat said Dodson McLennan Sharman. Maybe have missed a couple aswell who we would hope become part of the future.

It’s likely we need another year getting a good pick. Cutting the list and recruiting.

But… you could also see a word where we finish 7-8 just off the sheer talent that hasn’t yet played and I haven’t included Howard as he is important for our structure.

North's list is getting really really good. I've said it a few times, they will jump. Maybe not this year, maybe not even next but when they do they'll be a powerhouse list. People bagged me when I said Brisbane would pass us and Carlton at the same stage in their development.

I agree what we have done in the last few years has set us on a path for success. Not just drafting but footy department signings as well. We were going nowhere, we are a bit behind and have nowhere near North or Adelaide's pure talent pool but we do have a very even side and need a few stars to round us out.

We are well drilled and disciplined. I think we look a lot like premiership Geelong without their couple of absolute stars. They didn't have many holes and real depth of quality. As Buckley said, coaches would rather consistent 7s that a stars that turn up as 4s some days and 10s the next.

We should be drafting with our high picks and starting to look at picking off hole fillers on the cheap and any star signings that we can get. That way we probably have a chance at a challenge under Wilkie, Sincs, Marshall etc.

 

[BrutThough]

A really interesting observation about Windy and his development here.

One aspect for me that was interesting over summer at Saints training was the positioning of Marcus Windhager. A lot of time spent on the outside and forward during match sim. He was used at 69.3% of team centre bounces between Rounds 1-16 last year. Windhager's inside mid knowledge now had a solid base. Ross Lyon initiated Windhager for a shutdown role against Max Holmes on Saturday night. Opposition coaches love flexibility especially in their premium players to move them around when targeted. Windhager has the inside mid knowledge, the training on the outside and forward over summer added further depth to his game. He now has the ability to target multiple players which includes inside mids, wings and half-backs. Ross Lyon just quietly adding layers to his team.

 

[FQFjt]

Actually thought that was way better than 2023 form for the Chito. He looks like a real BDE alpha dog now. He always looked like a humble kid that couldn't quite believe what he'd done when he did good stuff.

Now he looks like he owns it. He only kicked 2.1 but it felt like he was about to crack the game open. Geelong had two players holding him at every contest after the first quarter and he still competed.

If he plays like that he'll have a few 5 or 6 goal games this season.

Absolutely. From the very first forward 50 entry, you could instantly realise how much we were lacking in round 1.

King, Owens and Sharman really could be an electric blend of key talls — all different, all complementary. The only downside is that none of them is a good chop out for Marshall.

 

[jh38]

Absolutely. From the very first forward 50 entry, you could instantly realise how much we were lacking in round 1.

King, Owens and Sharman really could be an electric blend of key talls — all different, all complementary. The only downside is that none of them is a good chop out for Marshall.

Owens is probably the best bet, but I guess thats where Keeler comes in. You probably couldn't play all 4 of those blokes in the same team though.

 

[Mr Clunk]

Absolutely. From the very first forward 50 entry, you could instantly realise how much we were lacking in round 1.

King, Owens and Sharman really could be an electric blend of key talls — all different, all complementary. The only downside is that none of them is a good chop out for Marshall.

And 2 are very unreliable set shots

 

[SaintsSeptember]

A really interesting observation about Windy and his development here.

One aspect for me that was interesting over summer at Saints training was the positioning of Marcus Windhager. A lot of time spent on the outside and forward during match sim. He was used at 69.3% of team centre bounces between Rounds 1-16 last year. Windhager's inside mid knowledge now had a solid base. Ross Lyon initiated Windhager for a shutdown role against Max Holmes on Saturday night. Opposition coaches love flexibility especially in their premium players to move them around when targeted. Windhager has the inside mid knowledge, the training on the outside and forward over summer added further depth to his game. He now has the ability to target multiple players which includes inside mids, wings and half-backs. Ross Lyon just quietly adding layers to his team.

Versatility can help a tagger as well.
Players like to lose a tagger by moving to a pocket.
OK, Move to a forward pocket ,and Windhager will get the ball and rebound it very nicely.
Get to a back pocket, Windhager is going to kick goals.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Actually thought that was way better than 2023 form for the Chito. He looks like a real BDE alpha dog now. He always looked like a humble kid that couldn't quite believe what he'd done when he did good stuff.

Now he looks like he owns it. He only kicked 2.1 but it felt like he was about to crack the game open. Geelong had two players holding him at every contest after the first quarter and he still competed.

If he plays like that he'll have a few 5 or 6 goal games this season.

Shocked at times checking the stats during the game. Felt like he was in everything.

 

[dudeintheswamp]

Shocked at times checking the stats during the game. Felt like he was in everything.

Yeah seems a lot of the impact he has isn't recorded by stats, need a new category...

Eg., Player X had 15 disposals, 4 tackles, 3 marks and 5 chitos.

 

[Atomboy]

You are blinded by Norths weekend win as to where they really are. It was only a week early they got comfortably beaten by a half strength Footscray.

Adelaide different kettle of fish. Why? Simply because they went hard in the offseason adding Cumming Peatling and ANB to what they have.

The previous few years they landed big fish. Rankine and Dawson.

They still managed to draft:
Thilthorpe pick 2 2020
Rachele pick 6 2021
Soligo pick 36 2021
Curtain pick 8 2023
Draper pick 4 2024

And blew a pick 11 on Pedlar in 2020.
Just solid recruiting over 5 years and has led to this season.

For comparison:

2021
NWM p11
Owens p33
Windhager p47

2022
Pou p10
Caminiti rookie

2023
Wilson p18

2024
Travaglia p8
Tauru p10

Big signings:
Henry ?


So, in comparison. We have ALOT OF young talent that is still finding its way. Might be another year off.

Haven’t had the success the crows have had via trade or free agency.

Haven’t had the absolute pinnacle picks they have in that time.

BUT.

Add TDK in. Another aswell?

Find a good one or two from:

Keeler Collard Hastie Ari Garcia O’Connell Hall Barrat Boxshall Said Dodson

And our own narrative changes big time too.

Post round 2.

- we have used the equal most players thus far. We need another 2 changes this week aswell. So likely a Travaglia debut. Carrol Henry?

- we are below the league average for average selected side age. We still haven’t played.

Travaglia Tauru Henry Carrol King Pou Barrat said Dodson McLennan Sharman. Maybe have missed a couple aswell who we would hope become part of the future.

It’s likely we need another year getting a good pick. Cutting the list and recruiting.

But… you could also see a word where we finish 7-8 just off the sheer talent that hasn’t yet played and I haven’t included Howard as he is important for our structure.

It’s getting harder to make a case for chopping current squad members.

I can only see 4-5 from the current list that would be easy decisions.

In previous years there were probably 7-8 you could comfortably lose.

I guess that’s a positive ?!.

 

[The Punter]

This is why I bristled a few months ago at someone suggesting Owens could be a 20+ disposals per game player.

He feels like the ceiling is 15 per game.

 

[gringo2011]

Shocked at times checking the stats during the game. Felt like he was in everything.

He set up a few goals as well but I guess that's why it's not a good idea to use stats as a guide. On paper he had an okay game but his impact was probably better than some with the best numbers.

 

[gringo2011]

This is why I bristled a few months ago at someone suggesting Owens could be a 20+ disposals per game player.

He feels like the ceiling is 15 per game.

I reckon he'll end up a Jake Stringer forward who goes into the midfield and impacts longer term. Probably pushes him into those kind of numbers. If you can get a 45 goal season with a handful of centre clearances, you've got a gun.

 

[akaifu]

Yeah seems a lot of the impact he has isn't recorded by stats, need a new category...

Eg., Player X had 15 disposals, 4 tackles, 3 marks and 5 chitos.

70% of Owens' disposals were score involvements and 60% were contested

 

[Oh When the Saints]

Aaron Hamill could be BOG only having 12 disposals and kicking 3 goals. His physical presence, pressure and contest work were elite, and he continually created opportunities for everyone around him. David Parkin called Hamill the best pressure forward to ever play the game on radio in the mid-2000s.

Mitchito's game on the weekend was in the same mould as Hamill. He doesn't need to rack up a lot of the ball to be one of the most impactful players on the ground with his physical presence.

 

[The Jack]

Aaron Hamill could be BOG only having 12 disposals and kicking 3 goals. His physical presence, pressure and contest work were elite, and he continually created opportunities for everyone around him. David Parkin called Hamill the best pressure forward to ever play the game on radio in the mid-2000s.

Mitchito's game on the weekend was in the same mould as Hamill. He doesn't need to rack up a lot of the ball to be one of the most impactful players on the ground with his physical presence.

If he could somehow improve his kicking he'd even more impactful.

 

[gringo2011]

If he could somehow improve his kicking he'd even more impactful.

He was tapping the ball on to Snags, blocking, crashing packs etc. If that's the best we get I'd take it. He's been cashing in on potential up until now. That was delivering on promise.

 

[Remboy]

Yeah seems a lot of the impact he has isn't recorded by stats, need a new category...

Eg., Player X had 15 disposals, 4 tackles, 3 marks and 5 chitos.

There should be a chito index.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They chose a model of sacrificing current talent for the future. It is probably going to work for them. The Saints copped it in the old days for the same thing and we got priority picks.

Its a balancing act.
It was worth moving Ross on, because we had a raft of young midfielders, some able to match his output on the day, coming through. Keeping him would have inhibited his development.
It was worth moving Membrey on, he's still good, but we have, Sharman, Caminiti, Owens and Hall.

No point shoving players out the door if you don't have those ready made replacements though.

Norfs got Simpkin, It wasn't an early pick. We could have but we traded our pick to the Hawks for a dodgy future pick.
Norfs spudded it up and got Davies-Uniack pick 4.
Norfs picked after us. We got King, They traded out their first ( Polac and Pittard for the Butters pick) they got Tarryn Thomas academy selection. Fat lot of good any of that did.
Traded out their 2019 first for Melbourne's 2020 first and some later picks.
Tom Powell and Will Phillips after being spuds in 2019.
Massive spuds, Horne-Francis at one...... leaving poor StKilda , only Nasiah

Gained 2 first round picks from losing Horne-Francis. Not sure if it was a strategic thing but it worked out for them.
They got Sheezel and Wardlaw in 2022.


I'm going to say that in all their years of spudding it up, their early picks didn't help much, and all that shoving of senior players out did was ensure their spuddedness.
The best thing that ever happened to them was losing Horne-Francis.

 

[BrutThough]

He was tapping the ball on to Snags, blocking, crashing packs etc. If that's the best we get I'd take it. He's been cashing in on potential up until now. That was delivering on promise.

It was a performance that explained why the coaches want him in the forward line.