News Season Preview

[matt decat]

http://www.sportsaustralia.com/articles/news.php?id=5196

AFL 2009 Season Preview – Carlton Blues

Costas Kastanis
Tuesday March 17, 2009

There’s a storm rising out of Blues land, Costas Kastanis takes a closer look at the team everyone is predicting will rise in 2009.
CHANGES FOR 2009:
Players in: Chris Yarran (2008 NAB AFL Draft), Rhys O’Keefe (2008 NAB AFL Draft), Mitch Robinson (2008 NAB AFL Draft), Michael Jamison (Rookie elevation), Caleb Tiller (2008 NAB AFL Draft), Chris Johnson (2008 NAB AFL Pre-season Draft), Robert Warnock (from Fremantle).
Players out: Jason Saddington (retired), Ryan Jackson (delisted), Cain Ackland (delisted), Luke Blackwell (delisted), Clinton Benjamin (delisted), Aisake O’Hailpin (delisted).
2008 BY THE NUMBERS:
Final position: 11th after minor rounds (10-12) Home 3-8 Away 7-4.
Leading Goalkicker: Brendan Fevola (99 goals).
Number of players who played 22 games: 4.
Most disposals: Marc Murphy (542, 21st overall).
Leading Brownlow vote winner: Chris Judd (16 votes).
THE OUTLOOK FOR 2009:
The wooden spoons are yesterday’s news, as Carlton looks set to reap the rewards that come from having been in the AFL dungeon for most of the 2000’s. Prize recruit Chris Judd, gun-forward Brendan Fevola, along with number one draft picks Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy and Matthew Kreuzer look set to spearhead the Blues revival in 2009. A top eight spot looks very attainable, with many even predicting Brett Ratten’s men to crack the top four.
Gibbs and Murphy have both matured into elite midfielders. The Carlton recruiting staff did their job here. Murphy lifted his game to new levels in 2008, averaging almost 25 possessions a game. The former number one draft pick is one of those players who seems to have so much time when he has the ball. Having Chris Judd as a mentor in the middle will only help his game improve.
With Judd reportedly over his injury problems, there is a formidable look to Carlton’s midfield. The man who will benefit the most from the silver-service delivery will be Brendan Fevola. Expect 100 goals from the controversial, but freakishly talented spearhead. The recruitment of small-forward Chris Yarran (from Swan Districts) should also add to Carlton’s forward potency.
The one area Carlton needs to improve in is defence. The Blues have had some huge scores kicked against them in recent years. Brett Thornton is serviceable, but he is not a star. Michael Jamison came off the rookie list and impressed in 2008.
He will be looking to build on that in 09. Jarrad Waite gained high possession numbers playing off half-back, but he can be exposed defensively. If Thornton and Jamison can hold strong, it will free Waite to set up attack from defence.
READY TO BREAKOUT: SHAUN GRIGG
Grigg was used mainly as a tagger in 2008, but his form during the 2009 NAB Cup has been exceptional as a major ball-winner in the Blue’s engine room. He is quick and athletic and ready to rise in 09.
FUTURE STAR: BRYCE GIBBS
The South Australian is already a star. But he has so much room for improvement and that is scary. Gibbs had a sensational finish last to last season. His performance against Sydney in round 16, where he comprehensively beat Brownlow medalist Adam Goodes, was a glimpse of what’s to come from the gifted youngster.
Added to that, the brilliant form he has displayed during the 2009 NAB Cup has Carlton fans and football pundits alike wondering just how good the baby-faced star can be.
ON SHAKY GROUND: BRAD FISHER
He has promised much for the past few seasons, but we have only seen glimpses. He played 21 games last season but his goal output fell from two per game to one. With the addition of Chris Yarran and Mitch Robinson in the Carlton forward line, Fisher needs to stand up or risk losing his spot.
X-FACTOR: BRENDAN FEVOLA
Fevola is an enigma. He has the capacity to kick more than 100 goals, but is just as likely to suffer a brain explosion and do something stupid (see urinating on a restaurant window). The Blues need him to stay out of trouble and do the damage on the field. He has a new forward partner in rookie Chris Yarran, who should enjoy the attention defenders will give Fevola. Expect Carlton to win if Fevola fires.
BEST BROWNLOW CHANCE: CHRIS JUDD
At his best, only Gary Ablett Jnr could be as damaging from the midfield as the former West Coast premiership captain. Judd won the 2004 Brownlow in a canter, but he has been hampered by groin problems since 2007. All reports are that Judd is over his injuries. If this is true, get on the Carlton skipper.
THE COACH: BRETT RATTEN
Ratten was a former Carlton midfielder who played the game tough. He took over a rebuilding Carlton list and now has his team primed to challenge for the eight. Missing a finals spot will not be tolerated, so the pressure is on him to succeed.
BEST 22
B C.Johnson, Thornton, Jamison
HB Carrazzo, Waite, Scotland
C Grigg, Stevens, Gibbs
HF Walker, Kreuzer, K.Simpson
F Fisher, Fevola, Yarran
Foll R.Warnock, Judd, Murphy
Inter from Armfield, Bannister, Bentick, Betts, Bower, C Cloke, Hadley, Hartlett, O’Hailpin, Robinson, Wiggins
PREDICTION:
3-6 The ingredients are in place. Carlton will make the 8 in 2009. There is too much class in this side for them not to. If Judd has a Brownlow worthy year, and Fevola keeps his head screwed on tight, even a top 4 finish is within reach.

I dont mind this assesment of the club, would be a really good season to finish 3-6 and i cant really argue too much with that best 22, maybe betts for yarran atm.

also good to see that one of these journos knows a bit about girgg!

 

[40yearBLUE]

Pretty much on the money for mine, I have us 4th or 5th. I noticed he has missed Hoops. He is a definite starter in the 22 IMO. Other than that not much to argue with. Maybe JR among the possible interchange but again it is getting very hard for a spot on this team.

 

[Warsaw]

Definitely one of the better previews i've seen. Sounds like a Blue supporter to be honest. Starting 18 has merit. Interchange would defintley include Betts and Bower. And I'd include Robbo in there aswell. The last place could be any one of them.

 

[thylacine60]

wow.

 

[CarltonFan]

BEST 22
B C.Johnson, Thornton, Jamison
HB Carrazzo, Waite, Scotland
C Grigg, Stevens, Gibbs
HF Walker, Kreuzer, K.Simpson
F Fisher, Fevola, Yarran
Foll R.Warnock, Judd, Murphy
Inter from Armfield, Bannister, Bentick, Betts, Bower, C Cloke, Hadley, Hartlett, O’Hailpin, Robinson, Wiggins

very good effort. I wouldnt be suprised if he was a Carlton supporter though, Costas Kastanis, its got greek written all over it.

 

[matt decat]

Our season preview on the AFL site

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/73272/default.aspx

Season preview: Carlton

Many expect Chris Judd to lead Carlton to a finals series in 2009




By Jason Phelan and Matt Burgan 7:41 AM Tue 17 March, 2009
LAST YEAR
Played: 22
Won: 10
Lost: 12
Finished: 11th
Best and fairest: Chris Judd

2009 IN BRIEF
Coach: Brett Ratten
Captain: Chris Judd
Coaching staff: Mark Riley, Matthew Lappin, Brett Montgomery (assistants), Darren Harris (development director), Robert Harvey, David Teague (development)

ARRIVALS & DEPARTURES
Arrivals
Exchange period – received: Robert Warnock (Fremantle)
Rookie elevation: Michael Jamison
NAB AFL Draft: Rhys O'Keefe (North Adelaide), Mitch Robinson (Tassie Mariners), Caleb Tiller (Murray Bushrangers), Chris Yarran (Swan Districts)
NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft: Chris Johnson (Melbourne)
NAB AFL Rookie Draft: Greg Bentley (Port Adelaide), Jeff Garlett (Swan Districts), Lachie Hill (Carlton), Sam Jacobs (Carlton), Darren Pfeiffer (Carlton), Luke Stanton (Northern Knights)

Departures
Retired: Jason Saddington
Delisted: Cain Ackland, Clint Benjamin, Luke Blackwell, Ryan Jackson, Aisake O'hAilpin, Darren Pfeiffer, Lachie Hill (rookie), Sam Jacobs (rookie), Michael Shields (rookie)

FIXTURE
Carlton will have to travel interstate six times this year, but will play eight matches at both the MCG and Docklands.

Rounds 17-19 stand out as a tough patch that could make-or-break Carlton’s finals aspirations. The Blues tackle Collingwood, North Melbourne and Geelong in this period.

Of last year’s finalists, Carlton plays the eventual top four– Hawthorn, Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda – only once, while they also meet the ever-competitive North Melbourne once.

INJURY LIST
Jordan Bannister: hamstring – 1 week
Andrew Carrazzo: arm – 3-4 weeks
Adam Hartlett: knee – 1 week
Darren Pfeiffer: shoulder – 1 week
Robert Warnock: foot – 3 weeks

MATT BURGAN’S PLAYER RATINGS
5 – Brendan Fevola, Bryce Gibbs, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Nick Stevens, Jarrad Waite (6 players – 30 points)
Expect Gibbs and Murphy, outstanding last year, to be regarded as elite midfielders by season's end. Waite may surprise, but he is good enough to be a key All-Australian defender. Stevens' ability to bounce back from a serious neck injury last year was vastly-underrated and remains integral. Judd and Fevola go without saying.

4 – Andrew Carrazzo, Shaun Grigg, Ryan Houlihan, Chris Johnson, Matthew Kreuzer, Heath Scotland, Kade Simpson, Bret Thornton (8 players – 32 points)
Carrazzo has had an interrupted pre-season, but his durability sees him as a key. Expect Kreuzer and Grigg to rise and Johnson to step-up at his new club after glimpses of class in the second half of last year. Scotland has been super reliable, but a niggling pre-season slips him back. Simpson and Thornton remain important. A fit Houlihan should show his class in a quality side.

3 – Dennis Armfield, Eddie Betts, Paul Bower, Steven Browne, Cameron Cloke, Brad Fisher, Richard Hadley, Shaun Hampson, Michael Jamison, Mitch Robinson, Jordan Russell, Andrew Walker, Simon Wiggins, Chris Yarran, Greg Bentley (rookie), Jeff Garlett (rookie), Sam Jacobs (rookie) (17 players – 51 points)
Walker could clearly rise higher, but has shoulder concerns. Jamison could also step-up. Hadley can play, but needs an injury-free run. Draftees Robinson and Yarran are ready to go. Expect improvement from Betts, Bower, Cloke, Russell, Armfield, Browne and Hampson. Rookies Bentley, Garlett and Jacobs have impressed and are poised to play. Wiggins will keep on playing his part.

2 – Joe Anderson, Mark Austin, Jordan Bannister, Jake Edwards, Adam Bentick, Adam Hartlett, Setanta O'hAilpin, Rhys O'Keefe, Robert Warnock, David Ellard (rookie), Aaron Joseph (rookie), Darren Pfeiffer (rookie) (12 players – 24 points)
Anderson, Austin and Edwards are still developing; Hartlett has talent, but has had no luck with his body. O'hAilpin remains on the cusp. The experienced Bannister and Bentick have injury concerns and some youngsters are now ahead. Ruck recruit Warnock (foot) is on the long-term injury list. O’Keefe could play this season.

1 – Caleb Tiller, Lachie Hill (rookie), Brent Stanton (rookie) (3 players – 3 points)
With Joseph impressing in the pre-season, and Ellard and Pfeiffer playing AFL matches in 2008, it could make it difficult for Hill and Stanton to break through this year. Still they are not without a chance of pushing up. No Blues veterans means two nominated rookies will be named, and Warnock’s injury means a third rookie can be elevated.

Total team rating – 140 (4 of 16, league-wide)

THE YEAR AHEAD
Optimism abounds at Visy Park, but the teams that occupied the eight last season aren't going to give up their spots without a fight. There is still plenty of work ahead of Brett Ratten's men, but the natural improvement of players like Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer coupled with the proven star power of Chris Judd, Brendan Fevola and Jarrad Waite has the Blues well-positioned for a finals assault.

WHAT THE CLUB SAYS
"We want to continue our growth from last year. We've spent a long time putting the list together with a number of elite draft choices and we showed signs last year that we were competitive. We're looking for continued improvement in an individual and collective sense.

"We'd be disappointed if we didn't hit that 12-win mark. It's part of Carlton culture that we're expected to play finals; we've been down for long enough. Finals are definitely the aim and we're not putting any barriers on that."
– assistant coach Mark Riley

A bit tough on a few of the players in this one. IMO AB and Banno should be higher, especially if Bentley is a 3. Walker should be a 4! Bower and Jammo should be a 4 this time next year. Still, 4th overall outta the 16 aint bad...Probably Cats Hawks and Pies ahead of us.

here is the ranking system

MY PLAYER ratings take into account a range of factors. Information such as statistics, past performances and achievements, pre-season form, interrupted pre-seasons and expectations/predictions for the season (ie. will they be regular players?) have been just some of the key indicators.

The criteria

5 – ELITE PLAYER
* A franchise/star player
* Critical to team
* A player projected to enter the elite bracket in 2009

4 – KEY PLAYER
* Proven/clearly in best 22 or projected to step-up in 2009
* Right on the cusp of elite
* Has been or may still be elite, but injury concerns or being in the veteran stage of career just reduces status

3 – REGULAR PLAYER
* More than likely in best 22 or on the cusp/good depth player
* A young-gun, fine prospect or possibly a rookie expected to be an improver in 2009
* Good player, but has injury concerns, reducing his rating

2 – NON-REGULAR PLAYER
* Unlikely to be in best 22
* A good player but set to miss a large portion of the 2009 season due to injury
* A veteran/middle age/young-gun/emerging or rookie-list player likely to feature in some or a handful of matches in 2009 because of injury, form or simply being a depth player

1 – DEVELOPMENT OR INJURED PLAYER
* A new draftee, rookie-list player or raw/long-term prospect unlikely to play in 2009
* An injured player who is unlikely to play in 2009
* A player who has already retired or quit the club before the start of the 2009 premiership season

 

[Team Mo']

Walker should be a 2! Bower and Jammo should be a 2 this time next year.

Please tell you mean 4? 2 is worse then 3...

 

[40yearBLUE]

Matt good work digging these up. We had a thread a few weeks ago on where we could finish this year and some of us that put us in the top 4 were labeled a bit one eyed and dreamers. Whilst these 2 previews are just other opinions, they are educated and the bergmeister has a ranking system which is hard to fault. I am convinced that short of some serious bad luck with injury we will finish top 4 and further than that, anything is possible with a bit of beleif. Once deep into a finals series who knows how far we could go.

 

[Orangewhip]

This is the stuff that fuels the Bigfooty knob-spurts.

 

[blues4flag]

Both quite good previews.

 

[swansfan51]

BEST 22
B C.Johnson, Thornton, Jamison
HB Carrazzo, Waite, Scotland
C Grigg, Stevens, Gibbs
HF Walker, Kreuzer, K.Simpson
F Fisher, Fevola, Yarran
Foll R.Warnock, Judd, Murphy
Inter from Armfield, Bannister, Bentick, Betts, Bower, C Cloke, Hadley, Hartlett, O’Hailpin, Robinson, Wiggins

very good effort. I wouldnt be suprised if he was a Carlton supporter though, Costas Kastanis, its got greek written all over it.

I would have thought Houlihan was in Carlton's best 29 players? Otherwise I didn't think it was a bad write-up, some good stuff in there.

 

[matt decat]

Please tell you mean 4? 2 is worse then 3...

woops....yeh was supposed to be 4...i better fix that one up!

 

[matt decat]

i found a interesting write up of north melbourne in the herald sun the other day (Monday IIRC)and it showed how much experience their depth has and found it interesting that a lot of them had no games under their belt (almost 50% of their non 22 and there were only a 2 or three that had more than 10games experience) Anyone know if they have done it on us yet?

 

[CarltonFan]

I would have thought Houlihan was in Carlton's best 29 players? Otherwise I didn't think it was a bad write-up, some good stuff in there.

well spotted. houlihan is easily first 18.

 

[40yearBLUE]

well spotted. houlihan is easily first 18.

Agreed, but heres the difficult thing, whilst I agree Hoops is in our starting 22, who do you leave out to get him in? I think Yarran at this stage, starts on the bench, plays in bursts until fully up to AFL pace and Hoops starts in the FP.

Meaning there are only 3 spots left on the bench. My picks would be Betts, Cloke (need a tall on the bench in case a tall gets injured) and then out of Hadley or Robbo on what I saw in the NAB for mine but would not be unhappy with any on that list.

But seriously, how good is our line up starting to look now. Class on every line. It is starting to look like a team of champions. But as the old saying goes, a champion team will beat a team of champions every time. So all that is left to do is build the champion team ethic and we will certainly bring home some silverware soon. Not if but when with that list.

 

[Faz 2000]

Hmmnnnnn. I gotta say, I think some of these previews are focussing on the shiny positives more than the quiet, dark negatives of our team.

I'm confident of finals in 2009. But only in about 7th, 8th spot.

Hopefully I am proven to be a thoroughly negative and over-cautious prognosticator by season's end.

 

[Weiterbot23]

How much better are our ins compared to our outs!!!

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

This is the stuff that fuels the Bigfooty knob-spurts.

Are they BigFooty's version of experts?

 

[Juddys_navy_blues]

Both a very good previews. Happy with 3rd to 6th.

 

[mushda]

Wow, how good is our list! I don't want to get too excited but looking at those potential teams we have so much more good quality depth than before. I'm going to say 6th as my aim for this year.

 

[Silvagnis]

Walker should be a 4 - KEY PLAYER after injury wrecked his 2008 campaign.

Hadley is easily in our best 22...Adds hardness, experience and leadership to our squad.

Carlton's list really is in good shape if Brent Stanton would be a one at Visy Park...

 

[ratten7]

JR wasn't in the best 29 either. Wether he is in the best 22 is debatable, He would be in mine, but he is definately in the best 29 for Carlton.