Analysis Since 2012...

[Ischenko]

I'm finding it really hard to move on from Saturday night. I just cannot get my head around North at the moment. This is really just me thinking out loud - trying to work out wtf is going on - so apologies if this analysis seems too subjective, simplistic or half-baked.
If you look at how we've won and lost over the last few seasons and whether there are consistent (LOL) trends, this may shed some light on whether we're truly cooked under the current regime or if we're just really prone to aberrations. Actually, can you be prone to aberrations? Anyway...

Exempt 2010 and 2011 as they're legitimately development years where inconsistency is to be expected. From 2012 to now, taking a simple look at bad/soft/spineless losses vs good/stirring/feel like we've almost arrived wins - basically the outliers at either end of the scale...

BAD 2012
Bulldogs (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten by ordinary side)
Port (pathetic choke/capitulation against an ordinary side)
Hawthorn (just embarassing)
Freo (capitulated with a home final on the line)
WC Final (just embarassing)

GOOD 2012
Geelong (first time it felt like we might be for real)
Adelaide (rank outsiders, dominant win)
St Kilda (hoodoo broken, came back from 5 goals down for dominant win)
Essendon (2 men down, gritty, gutsy win)
Collingwood (see St Kilda)

BAD 2013
Sydney (on top, went to sleep, got smashed)
West Coast (choked)
Adelaide (choked)
Gold Coast (just yuck)
Brisbane (choked)
Carlton (lack of intensity, beaten by ordinary side)
Adelaide (see Carlton)

GOOD 2013
Geelong (rank outsiders, great team performance)
Richmond (utterly dominant)

BAD 2014
Essendon (just yuck)
Collingwood (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Gold Coast (flat as a tack, spent all petrol tickets coming back, soundly beaten)
Adelaide (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Brisbane (a disgrace)

GOOD 2014
Port (come from behind, inspiring team performance)
Sydney (hoodoo broken)
Freo (hoodoo broken)
West Coast (dominant team performance)

Over the duration, that's 17 really bad losses and 11 really good wins - not a good ratio.
There seems to be no end to the horrible ways we can lose, which indicates ultimately that we are mentally not up to it.

tl;dr: A long term overview looks just as average as Saturday night did. Something has got to give.

 

[royals1922]

I'm finding it really hard to move on from Saturday night. I just cannot get my head around North at the moment. This is really just me thinking out loud - trying to work out wtf is going on - so apologies if this analysis seems too subjective, simplistic or half-baked.
If you look at how we've won and lost over the last few seasons and whether there are consistent (LOL) trends, this may shed some light on whether we're truly cooked under the current regime or if we're just really prone to aberrations. Actually, can you be prone to aberrations? Anyway...

Exempt 2010 and 2011 as they're legitimately development years where inconsistency is to be expected. From 2012 to now, taking a simple look at bad/soft/spineless losses vs good/stirring/feel like we've almost arrived wins - basically the outliers at either end of the scale...

BAD 2012
Bulldogs (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten by ordinary side)
Port (pathetic choke/capitulation against an ordinary side)
Hawthorn (just embarassing)
Freo (capitulated with a home final on the line)
WC Final (just embarassing)

GOOD 2012
Geelong (first time it felt like we might be for real)
Adelaide (rank outsiders, dominant win)
St Kilda (hoodoo broken, came back from 5 goals down for dominant win)
Essendon (2 men down, gritty, gutsy win)
Collingwood (see St Kilda)

BAD 2013
Sydney (on top, went to sleep, got smashed)
West Coast (choked)
Adelaide (choked)
Gold Coast (just yuck)
Brisbane (choked)
Carlton (lack of intensity, beaten by ordinary side)
Adelaide (see Carlton)

GOOD 2013
Geelong (rank outsiders, great team performance)
Richmond (utterly dominant)

BAD 2014
Essendon (just yuck)
Collingwood (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Gold Coast (flat as a tack, spent all petrol tickets coming back, soundly beaten)
Adelaide (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Brisbane (a disgrace)

GOOD 2014
Port (come from behind, inspiring team performance)
Sydney (hoodoo broken)
Freo (hoodoo broken)
West Coast (dominant team performance)

Over the duration, that's 17 really bad losses and 11 really good wins - not a good ratio.
There seems to be no end to the horrible ways we can lose, which indicates ultimately that we are mentally not up to it.

tl;dr: A long term overview looks just as average as Saturday night did. Something has got to give.

I could give you some answers but what I would say may be unpalatable to the prevailing views of this board.

The starting point must be team composition for each of those games.

 

[Ischenko]

I could give you some answers but what I would say may be unpalatable to the prevailing views of this board.

The starting point must be team composition for each of those games.

Anything particularly glaring in that regard?

 

[royals1922]

Anything particularly glaring in that regard?

Some board favourites including experienced and less experienced do not stand that close to scrutiny if you look at those games.

 

[King Corey]

Ischenko was pondering similar re how many notable wins or inexcusable losses (or competitive efforts) we've had under Brad. Agree with excluding 2010-11 as nursery years.

In the name of balance I'd add:

Bad - 2012
GWS - absolutely lacklustre effort to blow any chance of a home final. More concerning was this was the start of Brad's trend of excusing poor performances.
In this case rather than the old 'heavy training load' it was 'getting ready for finals'. Yep. We saw a week later how ready our treading water preparation set us up for the real stuff.

Good - 2013
Collingwood - This is a nice twist with Buckley & Co doing a Brad here and rationalising their loss. A nice reversal to our usual modus operandi as we got to be the underdog with the sting in the tail and took out a finals bound opponent. I mistakenly thought the end of 2013 was a sign of how we'd start 2014....

 

[Jimms]

Bad - 2012
GWS - absolutely lacklustre effort to blow any chance of a home final. More concerning was this was the start of Brad's trend of excusing poor performances.
In this case rather than the old 'heavy training load' it was 'getting ready for finals'. Yep. We saw a week later how ready our treading water preparation set us up for the real stuff.

wait, what?

 

[King Corey]

wait, what?

We had to win by over 28 points against a team bereft of wins and came out looking disinterested.

Or were you just setting me up for your hilarious punchline?

 

[Mr. Blonde]

I'm finding it really hard to move on from Saturday night. I just cannot get my head around North at the moment. This is really just me thinking out loud - trying to work out wtf is going on - so apologies if this analysis seems too subjective, simplistic or half-baked.
If you look at how we've won and lost over the last few seasons and whether there are consistent (LOL) trends, this may shed some light on whether we're truly cooked under the current regime or if we're just really prone to aberrations. Actually, can you be prone to aberrations? Anyway...

Exempt 2010 and 2011 as they're legitimately development years where inconsistency is to be expected. From 2012 to now, taking a simple look at bad/soft/spineless losses vs good/stirring/feel like we've almost arrived wins - basically the outliers at either end of the scale...

BAD 2012
Bulldogs (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten by ordinary side)
Port (pathetic choke/capitulation against an ordinary side)
Hawthorn (just embarassing)
Freo (capitulated with a home final on the line)
WC Final (just embarassing)

GOOD 2012
Geelong (first time it felt like we might be for real)
Adelaide (rank outsiders, dominant win)
St Kilda (hoodoo broken, came back from 5 goals down for dominant win)
Essendon (2 men down, gritty, gutsy win)
Collingwood (see St Kilda)

BAD 2013
Sydney (on top, went to sleep, got smashed)
West Coast (choked)
Adelaide (choked)
Gold Coast (just yuck)
Brisbane (choked)
Carlton (lack of intensity, beaten by ordinary side)
Adelaide (see Carlton)

GOOD 2013
Geelong (rank outsiders, great team performance)
Richmond (utterly dominant)

BAD 2014
Essendon (just yuck)
Collingwood (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Gold Coast (flat as a tack, spent all petrol tickets coming back, soundly beaten)
Adelaide (no intensity, never turned up, soundly beaten)
Brisbane (a disgrace)

GOOD 2014
Port (come from behind, inspiring team performance)
Sydney (hoodoo broken)
Freo (hoodoo broken)
West Coast (dominant team performance)

Over the duration, that's 17 really bad losses and 11 really good wins - not a good ratio.
There seems to be no end to the horrible ways we can lose, which indicates ultimately that we are mentally not up to it.

tl;dr: A long term overview looks just as average as Saturday night did. Something has got to give.

Ischenko, I have had a bit of a deeper look at the games you have noted. Even though it isn't the most accurate system around, here is the average Dreamteam scores by a select group of our players during those games.

You have noted 11 wins and 17 losses over the past 3 seasons as stirring wins and horrible losses.
Played in these W/L , Avg DT score during W/L
Adams - 10/15, 95/61
Bastinac - 11/17, 89/66
Firrito - 9/14 , 61/53
Harvey - 11/15 , 97/83
Black - 6/10 , 66/51
Wells - 8/13 , 92/81
Wright - 6/10 , 72/44
Ziebell - 8/15 , 95/83
Grima - 7/12 , 75/58
Gibson - 10/14 , 94/80
Mullett - 6/11 , 79/66

Players such as Atley, Cunnington, Thompson, Hansen, Goldstein, Swallow and Petrie had only minimal changes from win to loss. Hansen, interestingly, missed 5 of the 17 horrible losses, but only 1 of the 11 stirring wins.

Thomas and MacMillan actually average more points in our losses than our wins.

I didn't include McKenzie, Tarrant, Greenwood or McMahon due to not enough games.

 

[GarnerSmash]

We had to win by over 28 points against a team bereft of wins and came out looking disinterested.

Or were you just setting me up for your hilarious punchline?

We were absolutely cooked after the Collingwood game two weeks before that. I was not in the least bit surprised at the closeness of that game, nor the flogging we copped in Perth.

 

[Marstermind]

King Corey beat me to it. The final round win over GWS needs to be on the shocker list. Indicative of the unwarranted complacency that has infested this group. Aren't we good? We've made the finals for the first time in too long. Let's just piss around against these spuds and we'll strut our stuff next week. Yeah good on you. You battled to beat an Under 19s team, made yourself go to Perth for a final where you got humiliated. Awesome.

 

[Ischenko]

Ischenko, I have had a bit of a deeper look at the games you have noted. Even though it isn't the most accurate system around, here is the average Dreamteam scores by a select group of our players during those games.

You have noted 11 wins and 17 losses over the past 3 seasons as stirring wins and horrible losses.
Played in these W/L , Avg DT score during W/L
Adams - 10/15, 95/61
Bastinac - 11/17, 89/66
Firrito - 9/14 , 61/53
Harvey - 11/15 , 97/83
Black - 6/10 , 66/51
Wells - 8/13 , 92/81
Wright - 6/10 , 72/44
Ziebell - 8/15 , 95/83
Grima - 7/12 , 75/58
Gibson - 10/14 , 94/80
Mullett - 6/11 , 79/66

Players such as Atley, Cunnington, Thompson, Hansen, Goldstein, Swallow and Petrie had only minimal changes from win to loss. Hansen, interestingly, missed 5 of the 17 horrible losses, but only 1 of the 11 stirring wins.



Thomas and MacMillan actually average more points in our losses than our wins.

I didn't include McKenzie, Tarrant, Greenwood or McMahon due to not enough games.

Cheers, that's great. Not surprising unfortunately where you find the biggest discrepancies.