Justnetime
Team Captain
- May 18, 2021
- 521
- 1,047
- AFL Club
- Carlton
This season has been a beauty in that we are back in the mix for the first time in years. Not only back in the mix but IMO, a flag threat…even before the media jumped on board it was clear to see we just needed an even chance transition / stoppage strategy to show our potential.
So what is worth talking about that impacts ‘what could be’ for 2022?
Our brand is clear and will be competitive for a flag tilt (injuries permitting)
Most know it so its not worth adding much detail here but for the first time we understand our brand of footy and the KPIs on game day. Stoppage based, heavy reliance first on our ruck (TDK at the moment) breaking even to allow our bigger/slower mids to do their thing. Small pressure forwards who if fail allow opposition half backs to get a hold of us given we play a man down in our fwd 50. Growing rebound 50 SIs from the likes Saad, Docherty, Lob, Fisher and Newnes. The high half forward roles of Fisher and sometimes Walsh. They play well, we win. We do not play like Tigers, Freo in that we are more stop , start and mark. We want to see our key forwards/rucks roam to wing and take an outlet/relief mark coming out of defence to be successful on game day. Yes, we can play mad attacking footy on our day but when it is 2 teams focused and up on the same day, this is out differential.
So going on game day I simply look at:
This is an interesting topic in itself. Young has progressed because of this. Boyd progressed a little. Kemp has been given a shot. Cottrell as well. Offsetting these little goodies is that I think pretty much all of our losses costing us top 4 right now are because of injuries to key players (tall players). Kemp gave up three or four shots on goal in first qtr alone vs Saints. 1 goal but a whole lot of confidence to our opponents that is was going to be a good day. Poor Kemp did his best giving up height/weight. Given IMO we are a chance this year with our best players on field (meaning top 4), this does suck. Don’t sugar coat it as ‘development’ It has really cost us. Next year might not progress to plan like it hasn’t for Port/Doggies. Everyone needs to stick in this year and the now and forget development!
It is important to keep everything in context rather than blow hot air. Example. Boyd has progressed from horrific to average (arguably good over a ‘2’ game sample). Night and day Z Williams is a better player and is more important to us than Boyd even looking forward for 2-3 years. Don’t get carried away. First choice player down hurts us. Boyd’s weapon is kicking but his kicking efficiency averages are still lower than Williams. Boyd again provides ‘a very light version’ of what Saad provides. Our backline still needs a bit of grit for balance (please Stocker, get yourself into shape, and if not you, then its Williams).
Losing the odd game like vs Saints, Pies and Tiges and chilling down
We all get annoyed on games like the Saints but we just have to remember 2 things. The competition from 1-11 is so evenly spread that a team going in at 7/10 effort vs a team going in at 10/10 simply means a loss. Carlton vs GC and Freo early this year are great examples. The return of Carlton vs Freo game another good example in reverse. We just don’t need to read too much into it and look at other sides having similar unexpected losses. It’s the reality that the game is based on ‘sheer hard running and tackling’ which means one team can simply under media pressure outwork you for a win (e.g. Essendon beating Sydney). What is really encouraging in our losses is that absolute injury carnage that has effected us prior to games and in games early, and in most of these games we have ‘just lost’. This bad luck that may turn in time for us in finals has me thinking we are effectively in a top 3 list quality/strategy position for 2022. We will scare everyone if we have a full list come finals.
What helps us win a flag?
This will be the contentious bit as this is ‘strongly’ opinion based. We only have 3 weaknesses as I see it and 1 nice to have. 1) Wing (mediocre to poor based on ‘average season output’), 2) groundball gets in defence (goes to toughness a little), 3) ruck and 4) the nice to have, a good third tall intercept defender.
Firstly the easy one on Ruck. Pitto to return and play alongside TDK to give us two looks at the clearances which are super important to us. Pitto also means TDK can cover an in game tall injury which has been really costing us.
Next the wing. I don’t rate any of Newnes, Setters, Cotters or Lob based on their average output (I rate these guys 5/10). Yes, each has played a good game….but averages show they are way down the AFL pecking order for their wing role. So we have to make do here until the off season. In this scenario and because id talked about TDK and Pitto playing I’d go for the best runners as they are all about the same in terms of weak gameday impact. Runners to offset the loss of run due to an extra ruckman. If anyone hates these comments on the wingers, come at me with averages, not ‘this one good game crap’.
Next on defensive ground ball gets. I wince every time it is spinning around on the deck with our defenders (Plowman/Boyd/Young). I only trust Saad and Docherty and I’m beginning to trust Newman (only lately). Our defence needs stocker for his attributes. I know he is unfit. This is just the trait we need to fill a weakness in a flag tilt. As a sub-title suggested Stocker if fit helps us fill a weakness and win a flag. Currently, I hope he replaces one of Plowman or Kemp. If he found good form I don’t mind him replacing Newman for what we need over Newman doing such a good job this year. Newman’s traits are covered by Docherty and Saad.
Lastly the nice to have and what could tip us over the line. A good intercept defender. Enter the maligned but skilled Marchbank. Him fit and playing to a 7/10 level helps us win the flag. A stretch but it is a trait we need. If not him, then let Kemp have his go. I’m no fan of McGovern or Plowman in the role. Plowman has never got it despite lots of free man roles over the years. McGovern could cost us the day just as much as win it on the day so lets omit him.
List Mgmt for next year
Completely based on above given we are in our window. Trade for immediate KPP coverage, trade for Winger for the now if achievable (probably not). My list mgmt. strategy assumes the giraffe Mirkov can actually play next season if we need him. He hamstrings our list mgmt. strategy a lot on whether he can play or not. As for the draft, I’m looking at spots where we have players over 26 and no quality young cover, or we are just weak. This leaves me with Half back flanker (Saad/Doch/Williams replacement), KPD (Weitering replacement) or winger (best available).
On my chopping block are: Setters, Ed, Newnes, Parks, Fogarty, Mcdonald & Williamson. I’m not fussed on Plowman, McGovern, Dow, and Philp if they were to disappear.
I’m not fussed on defender Durdin, Hayes, Lob and Cottrell but would keep. I’d keep both Marchbank and Cunners due to their potential.
So what is worth talking about that impacts ‘what could be’ for 2022?
Our brand is clear and will be competitive for a flag tilt (injuries permitting)
Most know it so its not worth adding much detail here but for the first time we understand our brand of footy and the KPIs on game day. Stoppage based, heavy reliance first on our ruck (TDK at the moment) breaking even to allow our bigger/slower mids to do their thing. Small pressure forwards who if fail allow opposition half backs to get a hold of us given we play a man down in our fwd 50. Growing rebound 50 SIs from the likes Saad, Docherty, Lob, Fisher and Newnes. The high half forward roles of Fisher and sometimes Walsh. They play well, we win. We do not play like Tigers, Freo in that we are more stop , start and mark. We want to see our key forwards/rucks roam to wing and take an outlet/relief mark coming out of defence to be successful on game day. Yes, we can play mad attacking footy on our day but when it is 2 teams focused and up on the same day, this is out differential.
So going on game day I simply look at:
- TDK (He effects our stoppage work and can lead us to lose stoppages based on what he does). He just needs to halve.
- Midfield stoppages. Can our mids get 1-2 clear releases a qtr from midfield and fast inside 50s. It’s a sign of the day.
- Are our small forwards harassing like crazy (the good thing, in finals they will so we will be a def threat)
- Are Fisher and Walsh involved in end to end transition for us and getting ball in the corridor. If they are, another huge KPI.
- Defensively, Is Young and Plowman holding up…more so when the ball is on the ground than in the air (ground ball gets are an indicator of toughness on day). Defensively, ground ball gets and releases are our weakness.
- Are Saad and Docherty delivering upfield and gaining lots of possessions/good decision making (this is the start of our rebound/transition goals)
- Are Cripps, Kennedy, JSoS, Curnow, Mckay marking up on the wing? If they are , just GTFO!
This is an interesting topic in itself. Young has progressed because of this. Boyd progressed a little. Kemp has been given a shot. Cottrell as well. Offsetting these little goodies is that I think pretty much all of our losses costing us top 4 right now are because of injuries to key players (tall players). Kemp gave up three or four shots on goal in first qtr alone vs Saints. 1 goal but a whole lot of confidence to our opponents that is was going to be a good day. Poor Kemp did his best giving up height/weight. Given IMO we are a chance this year with our best players on field (meaning top 4), this does suck. Don’t sugar coat it as ‘development’ It has really cost us. Next year might not progress to plan like it hasn’t for Port/Doggies. Everyone needs to stick in this year and the now and forget development!
It is important to keep everything in context rather than blow hot air. Example. Boyd has progressed from horrific to average (arguably good over a ‘2’ game sample). Night and day Z Williams is a better player and is more important to us than Boyd even looking forward for 2-3 years. Don’t get carried away. First choice player down hurts us. Boyd’s weapon is kicking but his kicking efficiency averages are still lower than Williams. Boyd again provides ‘a very light version’ of what Saad provides. Our backline still needs a bit of grit for balance (please Stocker, get yourself into shape, and if not you, then its Williams).
Losing the odd game like vs Saints, Pies and Tiges and chilling down
We all get annoyed on games like the Saints but we just have to remember 2 things. The competition from 1-11 is so evenly spread that a team going in at 7/10 effort vs a team going in at 10/10 simply means a loss. Carlton vs GC and Freo early this year are great examples. The return of Carlton vs Freo game another good example in reverse. We just don’t need to read too much into it and look at other sides having similar unexpected losses. It’s the reality that the game is based on ‘sheer hard running and tackling’ which means one team can simply under media pressure outwork you for a win (e.g. Essendon beating Sydney). What is really encouraging in our losses is that absolute injury carnage that has effected us prior to games and in games early, and in most of these games we have ‘just lost’. This bad luck that may turn in time for us in finals has me thinking we are effectively in a top 3 list quality/strategy position for 2022. We will scare everyone if we have a full list come finals.
What helps us win a flag?
This will be the contentious bit as this is ‘strongly’ opinion based. We only have 3 weaknesses as I see it and 1 nice to have. 1) Wing (mediocre to poor based on ‘average season output’), 2) groundball gets in defence (goes to toughness a little), 3) ruck and 4) the nice to have, a good third tall intercept defender.
Firstly the easy one on Ruck. Pitto to return and play alongside TDK to give us two looks at the clearances which are super important to us. Pitto also means TDK can cover an in game tall injury which has been really costing us.
Next the wing. I don’t rate any of Newnes, Setters, Cotters or Lob based on their average output (I rate these guys 5/10). Yes, each has played a good game….but averages show they are way down the AFL pecking order for their wing role. So we have to make do here until the off season. In this scenario and because id talked about TDK and Pitto playing I’d go for the best runners as they are all about the same in terms of weak gameday impact. Runners to offset the loss of run due to an extra ruckman. If anyone hates these comments on the wingers, come at me with averages, not ‘this one good game crap’.
Next on defensive ground ball gets. I wince every time it is spinning around on the deck with our defenders (Plowman/Boyd/Young). I only trust Saad and Docherty and I’m beginning to trust Newman (only lately). Our defence needs stocker for his attributes. I know he is unfit. This is just the trait we need to fill a weakness in a flag tilt. As a sub-title suggested Stocker if fit helps us fill a weakness and win a flag. Currently, I hope he replaces one of Plowman or Kemp. If he found good form I don’t mind him replacing Newman for what we need over Newman doing such a good job this year. Newman’s traits are covered by Docherty and Saad.
Lastly the nice to have and what could tip us over the line. A good intercept defender. Enter the maligned but skilled Marchbank. Him fit and playing to a 7/10 level helps us win the flag. A stretch but it is a trait we need. If not him, then let Kemp have his go. I’m no fan of McGovern or Plowman in the role. Plowman has never got it despite lots of free man roles over the years. McGovern could cost us the day just as much as win it on the day so lets omit him.
List Mgmt for next year
Completely based on above given we are in our window. Trade for immediate KPP coverage, trade for Winger for the now if achievable (probably not). My list mgmt. strategy assumes the giraffe Mirkov can actually play next season if we need him. He hamstrings our list mgmt. strategy a lot on whether he can play or not. As for the draft, I’m looking at spots where we have players over 26 and no quality young cover, or we are just weak. This leaves me with Half back flanker (Saad/Doch/Williams replacement), KPD (Weitering replacement) or winger (best available).
On my chopping block are: Setters, Ed, Newnes, Parks, Fogarty, Mcdonald & Williamson. I’m not fussed on Plowman, McGovern, Dow, and Philp if they were to disappear.
I’m not fussed on defender Durdin, Hayes, Lob and Cottrell but would keep. I’d keep both Marchbank and Cunners due to their potential.
