Peterbudge
Debutant
- Jul 9, 2016
- 82
- 291
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Thought I would pore through the numbers to see what looks interesting from a statistical perspective over the first four rounds.
We’re winning the ball more than our opposition (NB Intercepting + Clearance differential), gaining more territory (metres gained) and creating more scoring shots. Compare this to last year where we were negative in all these numbers. While it is early days, if we are positive in these differentials at the end of the year, it is almost certain we will make finals.
The big improvement has clearly been in how we are defending. We, incredibly, are only givng up 18.5 shoring shots per game. This is first in the league, and on par with the best defensive teams over the last few years.
And we are doing this despite our opponents averaging around 54 inside 50s per game, which is around average this season.
Our strong defence can be seen in a number of other indicators. High opposition turnovers. High tackles. Lowest opposition marks inside 50 in the league.
Going forward, on the other hand is still a work in progress.
We are moving the ball slower, relying less on playing on through handballs (Down from 181 to 157 per game) and switches in the back half. Instead this season we often rely on long kicks down the line to a contest. The drop in uncontested marks is also clearly related to this change in style (Down from 85 to 65 per game ).
This style appears to have the advantage of fewer turnovers in the back half. Webster, Savage both have recorded fewer turnovers and Wilkie is averaging fewer than our third talls did last year.
The flipside is that we appear to often kick to contests where we are outnumbered. This has contributed to a negative contested marking differential (-4.8, worst in league), and increases in total turnovers from last year (up from 69 to 76).
It also has led to increased stoppages. We do have a positive differential at stoppage clearances this year though so if we can neutralise the ball we are more likely than not to win it back. A big reason for this appears to be the addition of Roma and Gresh into the midfield (our two best at stoppage clearances this year) with big Roma also assisted by the new ruck rules.
Slower ball movement had led to lower than average inside 50s. But we are also below the league average in generating scoring shots once inside 50 which is a concern. Poor conversion clearly continues to hurt us too.
We’re winning the ball more than our opposition (NB Intercepting + Clearance differential), gaining more territory (metres gained) and creating more scoring shots. Compare this to last year where we were negative in all these numbers. While it is early days, if we are positive in these differentials at the end of the year, it is almost certain we will make finals.
The big improvement has clearly been in how we are defending. We, incredibly, are only givng up 18.5 shoring shots per game. This is first in the league, and on par with the best defensive teams over the last few years.
And we are doing this despite our opponents averaging around 54 inside 50s per game, which is around average this season.
Our strong defence can be seen in a number of other indicators. High opposition turnovers. High tackles. Lowest opposition marks inside 50 in the league.
Going forward, on the other hand is still a work in progress.
We are moving the ball slower, relying less on playing on through handballs (Down from 181 to 157 per game) and switches in the back half. Instead this season we often rely on long kicks down the line to a contest. The drop in uncontested marks is also clearly related to this change in style (Down from 85 to 65 per game ).
This style appears to have the advantage of fewer turnovers in the back half. Webster, Savage both have recorded fewer turnovers and Wilkie is averaging fewer than our third talls did last year.
The flipside is that we appear to often kick to contests where we are outnumbered. This has contributed to a negative contested marking differential (-4.8, worst in league), and increases in total turnovers from last year (up from 69 to 76).
It also has led to increased stoppages. We do have a positive differential at stoppage clearances this year though so if we can neutralise the ball we are more likely than not to win it back. A big reason for this appears to be the addition of Roma and Gresh into the midfield (our two best at stoppage clearances this year) with big Roma also assisted by the new ruck rules.
Slower ball movement had led to lower than average inside 50s. But we are also below the league average in generating scoring shots once inside 50 which is a concern. Poor conversion clearly continues to hurt us too.
