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mezaire

mezaire

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Veteran Blue Mountain Bounders Player - BFFCL
Aug 11, 2009
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Launceston FC
IMHO this year seems to have plenty of options as far as structure e.g.. I've had 4-6 premiums in my mids, 1-4 I'm my backline and 0-3 in my fwd's.

So...
P = Premium price
UP = under priced or fallen premium
MP = mid pricer
ER = expensive rookie ($200k-$300k)
R = rookie under $200k

How's your team looking?

Mine:
Backs;
2 x P, 2 x MP, 2 x R

Mids;
4 x P, 1 x UP, 1 x MP, 2 x RE

Rucks;
2 x UP

Fwd's;
1 x P, 2 x UP, 1 x MP, 1 x ER, 1 x R

Obviously you can call players different categories but I guess it's what you think they are in you team.
 
mezaire said:
IMHO this year seems to have plenty of options as far as structure e.g.. I've had 4-6 premiums in my mids, 1-4 I'm my backline and 0-3 in my fwd's.

So...
P = Premium price
UP = under priced or fallen premium
MP = mid pricer
ER = expensive rookie ($200k-$300k)
R = rookie under $200k

How's your team looking?

Mine:
Backs;
2 x P, 2 x MP, 2 x R

Mids;
4 x P, 1 x UP, 1 x MP, 2 x ER

Rucks;
2 x UP

Fwd's;
1 x P, 2 x UP, 1 x MP, 1 x ER, 1 x R

Obviously you can call players different categories but I guess it's what you think they are in you team.
Click to expand...

My team i havent "officially" changed since opening, but i have many teams screen captured so it gives me options but as it stands right now, its a bit shonky but ill do this exercise. A price range would be nice to work towards, but i think i can work out the method.

Backs;
2 x P, 1 x MP 3 x R

Mids;
5 x P, 1 x MP, 2 x RE

Rucks;
1 x UP, 1 MP

Fwd's;
2 x P, 2 x MP, 1 x ER, 1 x R

Yes i know i have to clean up those 3 x rookies in the backline, and I will after JLT.
 
Yeah OP, it would be great if you could add some price ranges to the categories.
I put Crisp at 622,000 as a backline P, but maybe he should be UP. Devon Smith I put as UP, but could be P.

Anyways, I've stacked the backs. I'm hoping that my 4 fielded mid rookies will outscore the available def rookies by enough to justify rolling with 1 less mid-premo than everyone else. I will definitely generate cash faster at least. If either of my mid UP picks doesn't come off, I will be SCREWED and unable to find the cash to fix it. Risky business, but I did not pick O'Meara so a little less risky then you were thinking ;)

BACKS: 4 P, 1 UP, 1 R
MID: 2 P, 2 UP, 4 R
RUCK: 1 P, 1 UP
FWD: 1 P, 2 UP, 1 MP, 2 R
 
I think the biggest unknown for me at the moment is my back/mid structure. Most of the pre season I've been sitting with just 2 Rookies in the mids and 3 in the back line. However it's looking as though 3 rookies on field in the back line could be a stretch so I had to cut a midfield premium and upgrade a back rookie.

My updated structure is:

Backs: 3P, 1UP, 2R
Midfield: 4P, 1MP, 3R
Rucks: 2UP
Forwards: 2P, 1UP, 1MP, 2R

I can't imagine my forward line or rucks will change much before round one, it's just getting the right balance in the mid/backs. It all comes down to which rookies get games though.
 

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I'm operating on 700K, 500K, 300K as my price points for structural comparison.
Above 700K - premium
500-700K - mid price
300-500K - cheapo/bargain bin
Below 300K - rookie
 
TDay said:
Yeah OP, it would be great if you could add some price ranges to the categories.
I put Crisp at 622,000 as a backline P, but maybe he should be UP. Devon Smith I put as UP, but could be P.

Anyways, I've stacked the backs. I'm hoping that my 4 fielded mid rookies will outscore the available def rookies by enough to justify rolling with 1 less mid-premo than everyone else. I will definitely generate cash faster at least. If either of my mid UP picks doesn't come off, I will be SCREWED and unable to find the cash to fix it. Risky business, but I did not pick O'Meara so a little less risky then you were thinking ;)

BACKS: 4 P, 1 UP, 1 R
MID: 2 P, 2 UP, 4 R
RUCK: 1 P, 1 UP
FWD: 1 P, 2 UP, 1 MP, 2 R
Click to expand...
I'm rolling with this pretty much as well. Def rookies are worrying at this stage so unless any belters pop up over the remaining JLT then could be a great move
 
JDWCE said:
I'm rolling with this pretty much as well. Def rookies are worrying at this stage so unless any belters pop up over the remaining JLT then could be a great move
Click to expand...
Coffield looked good last night. If he plays rd 1 it will ease the defence pressure a bit.

In that case, I would go with only 1 rook on the field in the forward line instead. Those small fwd rookies can really burn when they don't get goals, so I'd prefer the fritsch/ryan/rioli types on the bench where the 30s dont hurt.
 
TDay said:
Coffield looked good last night. If he plays rd 1 it will ease the defence pressure a bit.

In that case, I would go with only 1 rook on the field in the forward line instead. Those small fwd rookies can really burn when they don't get goals, so I'd prefer the fritsch/ryan/rioli types on the bench where the 30s dont hurt.
Click to expand...
Yeah I have Coffield sitting pretty on my field and last night thankfully eased my stress over his spot. Forward rookies seem to be dropping like flies and the only ones putting their hands up are those pesky small forwards who are more likely to score a 30 than a 60. Think there is about 4 blokes total from the whole forward line position that I actually like seeing in my team
 
In the brackets I've set the parameters which i used to classify each player. I am super happy with my current team and apart from swapping 1 rookie i havent changed it in about a week. The achilles heal of my team will likely be the fact that behind Titchell i don t have any super premium midfielders. Instead i have locked in 5 mids averaging between 80 and 105 in the hope that they will increase their averages by at least 10. Hopefully my mids start on fire, in which case i'll be able to do almost a straight swap to the likes of Zerrett and Danger assuming their prices falls a little bit in the first 6 or so rounds.

Backs = 2P, 2UP, 1ER, 1R
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)

Mids = 1P, 3UP, 2MP, 2ER
(750k+ = P, 600-750k = UP, 350-600k = MP, 200-350k = ER, <200k = R)

Rucks = 1P, 1MP
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)

Forwards = 1P, 3UP, 1ER, 1R
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)
 
Several weeks ago on my blog I did some analysis of team structure by looking at the structure of last years "best possible" team in Round 1, 2017.
It's like looking at yesterday's lotto numbers. The team looked like this:

structure.jpg



To give you an idea, this team scored 2,646 in round 1. I found this useful when structuring my own team. Things of note are that talent is clearly stacked around the mid-field. One issue that makes this structure problematic for 2018 are the number of good rookies in the mid-field - which is also where the best down-grades will probably be. It's also worthwhile to note that your wallet is tighter this year (while you have 12.6 million this year, players have increased by more than the salary cap). So this might affect structure a bit. The only players who are better priced this year (bang for buck) than last year are rookies - and premium rookies in particular. So these kinds of guys feature prominently in my team.
 

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NathanS said:
Several weeks ago on my blog I did some analysis of team structure by looking at the structure of last years "best possible" team in Round 1, 2017.
It's like looking at yesterday's lotto numbers. The team looked like this:

structure.jpg



To give you an idea, this team scored 2,646 in round 1. I found this useful when structuring my own team. Things of note are that talent is clearly stacked around the mid-field. One issue that makes this structure problematic for 2018 are the number of good rookies in the mid-field - which is also where the best down-grades will probably be. It's also worthwhile to note that your wallet is tighter this year (while you have 12.6 million this year, players have increased by more than the salary cap). So this might affect structure a bit. The only players who are better priced this year (bang for buck) than last year are rookies - and premium rookies in particular. So these kinds of guys feature prominently in my team.
Click to expand...
I like what you have done, but what are you saying? I was waiting for the punch line.
 
SELFCONFESDAFLNERD said:
In the brackets I've set the parameters which i used to classify each player. I am super happy with my current team and apart from swapping 1 rookie i havent changed it in about a week. The achilles heal of my team will likely be the fact that behind Titchell i don t have any super premium midfielders. Instead i have locked in 5 mids averaging between 80 and 105 in the hope that they will increase their averages by at least 10. Hopefully my mids start on fire, in which case i'll be able to do almost a straight swap to the likes of Zerrett and Danger assuming their prices falls a little bit in the first 6 or so rounds.

Backs = 2P, 2UP, 1ER, 1R
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)

Mids = 1P, 3UP, 2MP, 2ER
(750k+ = P, 600-750k = UP, 350-600k = MP, 200-350k = ER, <200k = R)

Rucks = 1P, 1MP
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)

Forwards = 1P, 3UP, 1ER, 1R
(600k+ = P, 500-600k = UP, 300-500k = MP, 200-300k = ER, <200k = R)
Click to expand...
I had very similar but then went down with one MP to a ER and then the other up to a UP as i see far more upside in UP's this year.
Interesting you have no MP's in the fwds or backs when I think there are a few good options there
 
NathanS said:
Several weeks ago on my blog I did some analysis of team structure by looking at the structure of last years "best possible" team in Round 1, 2017.
It's like looking at yesterday's lotto numbers. The team looked like this:


To give you an idea, this team scored 2,646 in round 1. I found this useful when structuring my own team. Things of note are that talent is clearly stacked around the mid-field. One issue that makes this structure problematic for 2018 are the number of good rookies in the mid-field - which is also where the best down-grades will probably be. It's also worthwhile to note that your wallet is tighter this year (while you have 12.6 million this year, players have increased by more than the salary cap). So this might affect structure a bit. The only players who are better priced this year (bang for buck) than last year are rookies - and premium rookies in particular. So these kinds of guys feature prominently in my team.
Click to expand...

Great post! Thanks.

The magic number last year was 6.04 (it's 7.04 this year).

Which means this 'perfect team' had in terms of averages (>100, 90s, 70-90, <70, rookie)
D: 1, 1, 1, 0, 3 (2)
M: 4, 2, 1, 1, 0 (2)
R: 0, 0, 1, 1, 0 (2)
F: 0, 0, 1, 2, 3 (2)

So in other words, only 8 players with an average of 90+ from the previous season. Suggesting that a contrarian approach is the only way to get the 'perfect' side, but you'll need to pick from the multitude of players averaging 70-90 the year before to get the best one in each line (last year this was Roberton, Murphy, Witts, Cameron). That's the truly hard part!

But also emphasises the unlikely need to get too many big guns in DEF/RUC/FWD. In those three lines, the optimal would have just had 2 from defence. So in essence that would be Laird and one of the other 90+ defs from last year and that's it!
 
I'd love to know how everyone is lining up in the forwardline. I feel as though it's the hardest spot to field this season, I'd been looking to be a bit more risky and line up with Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen, Rayner and Fritsch with two 170k rookies on the bench.

However my lack of faith in the forward rookies is what gives me these concerns. I'd downgrade Treloar into Paddy Dow. This would essentially put Dow on the field instead of Fritsch which would give me a great bench option. Avoiding the worry that Fritcsh could dish up a 40. It would give me Billings, Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen and Rayner with Fritcsh and a 170 rookie on the bench.

In basic form. not related to structures it's Treloar and Rioli for Billings and Dow to make these adjustments. Looking at the side I feel really confident in my forwardline and it allows me to try and make some more money from the midfield rookies but deep down I really question if Treloar and Rioli are worth losing for Billings and Dow?
 
Last edited:
Tradespert said:
I'd love to know how everyone is lining up in the forwardline. I feel as though it's the hardest spot to field this season, I'd been looking to be a bit more risky and line up with Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen, Rayner and Fritsch with two 170k rookies on the bench.

However my lack of faith in the forward rookies is what gives me these concerns. I'd downgrade Treloar into Paddy Dow. This would essentially put Dow on the field instead of Fritsch which would give me a great bench option. Avoiding the worry that Fritcsh could dish up a 40. It would give me Billings, Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen and Rayner with Fritcsh and a 170 rookie on the bench.

In basic form. not related to structures it's Treloar and Rioli for Billings and Dow to make these adjustments. Looking at the side I feel really confident in my forwardline and it allows me to try and make some more money from the midfield rookies but deep down I really question if Treloar and Rioli are worth losing for Billings and Dow?
Click to expand...

In terms of my plans, I don’t trust the premiums at either end but do trust the back rookies more.
Hence I think a 3-1-2 approach is good, provided the onfield rookies are decent.

At this point I have Billings, McLean, Devon, Christensen, Rayner, Fritsch (Ryan and 170k).

In terms of your trade plans, I’m not certain in what Rioli will do but if you trust him you should stick with your gut I reckon.
Dow is likely to have a sub 50 score at some point as is Fritsch, and at least Fritsch is cheaper and is forward instead of mid spot.
 

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Tradespert said:
I'd love to know how everyone is lining up in the forwardline. I feel as though it's the hardest spot to field this season, I'd been looking to be a bit more risky and line up with Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen, Rayner and Fritsch with two 170k rookies on the bench.

However my lack of faith in the forward rookies is what gives me these concerns. I'd downgrade Treloar into Paddy Dow. This would essentially put Dow on the field instead of Fritsch which would give me a great bench option. Avoiding the worry that Fritcsh could dish up a 40. It would give me Billings, Heeney, Devon Smith, Petracca, Christensen and Rayner with Fritcsh and a 170 rookie on the bench.

In basic form. not related to structures it's Treloar and Rioli for Billings and Dow to make these adjustments. Looking at the side I feel really confident in my forwardline and it allows me to try and make some more money from the midfield rookies but deep down I really question if Treloar and Rioli are worth losing for Billings and Dow?
Click to expand...
I’ve gone Billings, Heeney, Petracca, Walters, Hutchings and Fritsch.

170k rookies on the bench.

Having said that, I’m willing to take the risk Fritsch scoring a 40-50 because I think I will score more with the extra money spent on the midfield.

Who’s your 4 premium mids just out of curiousity?
 
jesterwester said:
I’ve gone Billings, Heeney, Petracca, Walters, Hutchings and Fritsch.

170k rookies on the bench.

Having said that, I’m willing to take the risk Fritsch scoring a 40-50 because I think I will score more with the extra money spent on the midfield.

Who’s your 4 premium mids just out of curiousity?
Click to expand...
Yeah, very true. I feel my mids can still make some money too.

If I didn't make this trade I've got Titch, Zerrett, Neale, Treloar & Parker as my premos with O'Meara as a midpricer.
 
Tradespert said:
Yeah, very true. I feel my mids can still make some money too.

If I didn't make this trade I've got Titch, Zerrett, Neale, Treloar & Parker as my premos with O'Meara as a midpricer.
Click to expand...
Fairly decent midfield! Neale, Parker & Treloar & JOM are all underpriced and should make money.

Everyone has Billings, it seems - but he himself hasn’t had the greatest preseason. So it’s not like he’s a guarantee to be the magical fwd who hits the ton each week anyway, at least for the first month or so. So I would go with your gut. It’s going to be a compromise either way.

FWIW - my midfield has Titch, Zerrett, Martin, Fyfe with Redden as the mid priced mid and Kelly, Dow & Brayshaw the rookies who I hope can justify spending 3.2m on 4 players...
 
jesterwester said:
Fairly decent midfield! Neale, Parker & Treloar & JOM are all underpriced and should make money.

Everyone has Billings, it seems - but he himself hasn’t had the greatest preseason. So it’s not like he’s a guarantee to be the magical fwd who hits the ton each week anyway, at least for the first month or so. So I would go with your gut. It’s going to be a compromise either way.

FWIW - my midfield has Titch, Zerrett, Martin, Fyfe with Redden as the mid priced mid and Kelly, Dow & Brayshaw the rookies who I hope can justify spending 3.2m on 4 players...
Click to expand...
That's the plan, obviously quite a little a risk involved, especially with Parker I feel but worst case he shouldn't lose any money, he just may not be able to consistently perform and improve that average but after a full season and the added responsibility early with Hannebery out. He really could go back to that 110 average.

True on Billings, I think he's a good option because he's not going to average less than last year but the ceiling is really high for him and he could go and average over 100 quite easily.

Nice dude, obviously it uses up a lot of cash but they'll be three of the top five scores this season. All really durable *touchwood* and you've got a few genuine captain options, proper set and forget selections. Have them there all year and enjoy the monster scores.
 

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