Swans - Finals Predictor

[Leg End]

Is this year really about winning or losing? Even in the finals? I think it's amazing that we've been able to sustain some semblance of form given the players that we've turned over. I'm just keeping my eyes on our young blokes, making sure that they're playing well and learning and developing. Our great strength over the last 15 to 16 years has been developing a side and keeping it successful. If we maintain that and recruit well in key positions another premiership will come!

Spot on.
Lst year - we wre leading the comp because, with Bradshaw, we won 5 in a row.

Flags are won by building your list over 3-4 years. we're 2 years into it.

We're invisible to those moronic Victorian journalists - but I see real potetial in Kjack, Reid, hanners, McGlynn, Mummy, TDL, Johnson, Johnston, Jetta, Parker, Smith, Bird, Rohan supported by Jbolton, Goodes, ROK, LRT. It has the makings of a real topline team.

 

[Leg End]

Just reworked the finals calculator. Summary:

Assumptions:
We beat Richmond, Brisbane.
We lose to Geelong.

Our place hinges on 2 things:
1. St Kilda - if we lose, we are 7th - and play St Kilda in first semi;
2. if we win, we are 6th - but still play St Kilda in first semi.

NOTE: the above also hinges on St Kilda v carlton. saints win - then we will be 7th even if we beat Saints in our game. If saints lose to carlton, we beat saints - then we are 6th.

SO - only thing left for Swans is beating Richmond and Brisbane - then saints/carltoin might get us 6th.

Even if we lose to richmond, we'll still probably be 8th - and play Carlton in first semi.

 

[Dangas]

Either way, making up the numbers

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I appreciate your opinion Aus, but I've never liked that attitude of "making up the numbers" no matter how true it may be. Sure, we're not going in favourites but we've gone in underdogs and have surprised people in the passed so I'm sure we can surprise people again come this years finals campaign.

While I'll be more understanding of a loss this year (given the form of the teams around us at the moment) I'm still not losing my faith in our boys until we're actually out of the hunt.

 

[Leg End]

Either way, making up the numbers

I just don't get that.

We're rebuilding - it was never going to be a flag year. but teh outlook for eh next 2-3 years is fabulous.

What about the taste of finals the young blokes will get? Excellent for the Swans.

Essendon game may be a turning point - etihad, coming off a buy and running out game strongly. It might also reinforce for the boys that each kick is important - and routine is critical.

 

[PaulRoos]

Dunno 'bout predictors but if someone can arrange the Swans to play the Egos at Subi in the first week of the finals, that would be appreciated.

Cheers ...

or is that Cheer cheer ...

 

[Skystyler]

losing to the bombers doesn't change much. We'll be playing the saints in the 1st final. If we beat them in a couple of weeks it will probably be up here, otherwise it'll be in Melbourne.

The good news is we are in season best form. The last 2 games have been our best all year, and with a tiny bit more luck we would've won the last 3 and be on a huge roll.

 

[Leg End]

losing to the bombers doesn't change much. We'll be playing the saints in the 1st final. If we beat them in a couple of weeks it will probably be up here, otherwise it'll be in Melbourne.

The good news is we are in season best form. The last 2 games have been our best all year, and with a tiny bit more luck we would've won the last 3 and be on a huge roll.

Agreed.
I hate Etihad - would be good to avoid.

Another positive - we had a lot of players who had fairly quiet games so upside is there.

 

[nicky]

I appreciate your opinion Aus, but I've never liked that attitude of "making up the numbers" no matter how true it may be. Sure, we're not going in favourites but we've gone in underdogs and have surprised people in the passed so I'm sure we can surprise people again come this years finals campaign.

While I'll be more understanding of a loss this year (given the form of the teams around us at the moment) I'm still not losing my faith in our boys until we're actually out of the hunt.

Have we won one game this year that wasn't expected? And how many have we lost that we thought we'd win.

I'm not even overly confident we'll beat the tigers this weekend. We'll be brisbane, lose to the saints and the cats and not sure about the tigers.

I thought we'd be better than this but I'm confident we'll be great given a couple of years. We continue to get some great youngsters and need to develop skill and structure as a team. We have a bright future but this year I'm confident in saying that we will lose our first final (given it will not be at home) and if our first final is at home and we win it then we will lose the next week.

I say this purely on the fact that we have not exceeded expectations once this year.

 

[Leg End]

Have we won one game this year that wasn't expected? And how many have we lost that we thought we'd win.

I'm not even overly confident we'll beat the tigers this weekend. We'll be brisbane, lose to the saints and the cats and not sure about the tigers.

I thought we'd be better than this but I'm confident we'll be great given a couple of years. We continue to get some great youngsters and need to develop skill and structure as a team. We have a bright future but this year I'm confident in saying that we will lose our first final (given it will not be at home) and if our first final is at home and we win it then we will lose the next week.

I say this purely on the fact that we have not exceeded expectations once this year.

Glass half full eh?

One thing has remained the same in the last 7 years. We don't have teh blazing talent across teh park like other clubs. But - a 4 quarter effort from Sydney means we can beat most if not all teams. We ran collingwood to a kick, close against carlton (rorted by interchange), close but cheated against Freo, big effort last week despite bye, beat West Coast early on. overall, considering injuries, a pretty good year - and it aint over yet.

I reckon they'll crunch Richmond - despite the 30 points start from the cheating showponies.

 

[dopesayo]

swans to finish 7th, play st.kilda, if we win we should play hawks (which is a very possible win as we beat them in last years final), then we'd play collingwood (which we only lost to by under a goal a few rounds ago) and if we win that im assuming we'd play geelong in the grand final

 

[S120]

We beat the Blues in last year's final.

You're to be commended over your optimism, however.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

And what a win it was over Carlton.

 

[dopesayo]

We beat the Blues in last year's final.

You're to be commended over your optimism, however.

a few months ago i thought we were just going to make finals and do crap, however ive seen a spark from the swans lately and im starting to think they have the potential to make a close game with the top afl teams of this year. hell, we only lost to the #1 team in the AFL by 6 points. if we get our goal-kicking right and our turnovers left to a minimum, we have a real chance in finals.

 

[nicky]

I come across pessimistic but that is because this year the swans have fallen short of my expectations. ie, they've won every game i knew they would but lost some i thought they would/should win and not once have they surprised me with a out of the blue win from a game i was expecting to lose.

Not the swans fault, just a miscalculation from me on where they were at. Am i disappointed? Not too much tbh because our future looks very bright indeed.

Making the finals this year will give our youngsters some great experience.

 

[dopesayo]

in the next few years sydney will be right up there, although we will have to face with losing goodes.
reid will become a superstar, as will mumford and parker (hopefully)

 

[SM]

a few months ago i thought we were just going to make finals and do crap, however ive seen a spark from the swans lately and im starting to think they have the potential to make a close game with the top afl teams of this year. hell, we only lost to the #1 team in the AFL by 6 points. if we get our goal-kicking right and our turnovers left to a minimum, we have a real chance in finals.

We also lost to the 4th best team by 30-something, and the 3rd best team by 50-something.

 

[dopesayo]

We also lost to the 4th best team by 30-something, and the 3rd best team by 50-something.

yes and both times we led at quarter time and both times jack was either injured or just returning from injury. if sydney can maintain a 4-quarter game without turning it over much and kicking straight, we're a real threat.

 

[Dangas]

We also lost to the 4th best team by 30-something, and the 3rd best team by 50-something.

the buddy show, hawks had a pretty fit side back then, that is best 22

 

[SM]

yes and both times we led at quarter time and both times jack was either injured or just returning from injury. if sydney can maintain a 4-quarter game without turning it over much and kicking straight, we're a real threat.

Right so if we play the perfect game we're a real threat. Think that applies to most teams.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

I've almost given up on this season to be honest. Every time I thought we were about to take a step up and make a statement as a team we've failed. And not only that, we've managed 2 lose a couple of games we should have won. I've come to the realisation that apart from a strong finish to 2010 where we played some good footy against some opposition that we're struggling/injury ravaged (freo, Bulldogs) or clearly below us, we've really struggled. The game against the Bulldogs showed that we weren't quite there, and since then we've regressed.

Some people point to the loss of bradshaw as a major reason why we've performed poorly. In hindsight, bradshaws acquisition has hindered our development. We were hoping he'd be a bandaid solution to a serious problem, 2010 / 11 should've been spent developing a forward line or looking at suitable options to trade in rather than praying for n injury ravaged 33 yo to come good.

To add to that, we've got 3 of our top-shelf players in goodes, Rok & bolton nearing the ends of their careers. There's more pain to come imo. I can't see us really challenging until those 3 have gone and have been replaced adequately. That's a 4-5 yr proposition imo essentially we've been rebuilding since 08, that's a long ass rebuild

 

[SM]

To be honest, who was going to be our key forward last year, Goodes? White? Getting Bradshaw was the definition of a bandaid solution that worked. We needed a forward for one year - which in hindsight can be explained as needing a year for Reid to develop in the Ressies - to prepare for Reid to step up as he has done this year. Bradshaw was the perfect candidate, and actually broke down at the perfect time allowing for Reid to step up when he was ready.

I've given up on this year too as we've continually lost games we needed to win... the exact reason I tipped Bombers last week, because in any crunch game so far - Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle, and Essendon - we've lost. Essendon at least we showed grit and put in debatably our second 4-quarter performance in two weeks, but again it's just boding well for next year, not this.

Our goal for the rest of the year really just needs to be getting together a functional forward line to really hit next year hard.

 

[S120]

Don't agree at all with regards to Bradshaw. He was brought in to be the man in the forward line.

The disappointment of Bradshaw being unable to take his spot has certainly been tempered by Reid's incredibly exciting development, but Bradshaw was given 3 years and plenty of money to be our main man.

 

[SM]

I'm speaking retroactively. Obviously when we signed him we wanted him to be around for 3 years, I'm merely saying that retroactively he's still been useful in filling the gap between Hall and Reid.

 

[S120]

Ah, I see. That I agree with.