TDF11 - Stage 19, Modane - Alpe-d’Huez 109km

[Freakie]

Stage 19 : Modane - Alpe-d’Huez 109kmThis would be what I call one of the Tours classic stages, tying in the Col du Télégraphe, Col du Galibier and Alpe d'Huez.
This stage (albeit usually longer with more at the start) has been used many times in the past.
A course that if you travelled to France you'd have to ride.



Current Jersey Leaders

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad)

Jelle Vanendert (Omega Pharma Lotto)

Rein Taaramae (Cofidis)

Garmin-Cervelo

Climbs
Km 26.5 - Col du Télégraphe (1 566 m) - 11.9 km climb to 7.1 % - Category 1
Km 48.5 - Col du Galibier (2 556m) - 16.7 km climb to 6.8 % - Category H
Km 109.5 - Alpe d'Huez (1 850 m) - 13.8 km climb to 7.9 % - Category H



Viewer Rating = 15 out of 10
No matter what, DO NOT MISS!!!!!!!!
Need not say anymore than that.


General Clssification
1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:00:15
3 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:01:08
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:01:12
5 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:46
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale
7 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:04:44
8 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:05:20
9 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:07:08
10 Jean-Christophe Peraud (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:09:27

Race starts = 10:30pm (AEST)
Approx finish time = 1:20am (AEST)
GUW Time = 10:30pm (AES time) (Get Up to Watch)
(SBS coverage starts at 10pm AEST).



Who's your tip?

Synopsis :-
Voeckler,
Survived stage 18 and the Galibierto hold onto a lead of only 15secs.
He got a get out of gaol free card in stage 18 by not defending his race lead when it really counted.
He was able to ride Evans coat tail on the climb which got him home in just enough time. Exhausted in the end.
Tonight I think he will struggle from the beggining, he'll be hoping for a slow stage over the first 2 climbs to make it easier for him.
He's had a long impressive run in Yellow, but his time will be over tonight.

A.Schleck,
Bought himself back into a good postion for the GC to give himself a good shot at the overall, but at what cost was his efforts last night?
He regained his lost minute and got a further 57secs up over Evans. Can he back that effort up in a way were he can increase his time gap?
57secs may not be enough time for him to defend come the TT. I feel he needs every second he can get and that means backing up to attack again tonight.
There's every chance he could struggle when it counts as he is sure to feeel the affects of a long range attack.

F.Schleck,
He had what would be called the 'easiest' ride during stage 18 with Andy up ahead.
In theory Frank should be a little less fatigued as result, although I feel he didn't have much more in the tank than what he showed.
He should not be underestimated though and is bound to look for time, although he will not if it means affecting Andy.
Frank will need loads of time over Cadel for him to defend his GC position, an amount of time that I would call unrealistic without anybody having a blowup.
I feel Frank will ride to defend and aid Andy. Which could also mean he will attack and make them chase him, wearing them out assuming Andy is still good.

Evans,
A strong ride last night in his pursuit of Andy Schleck, kept the time damage down to something he can work with.
Evans is still in a very strong position on the GC despite having droppped to 4th.
He will need to be careful of his efforts tonight and choose wisely what he reacts to as the effort of last nights chase could make it tough going, but as Contador has said he "revealed himself" showing just how good his form is.
I believe Andy is Cadels biggest threat and needs to be watched carefully, all the while not giving Frank much rope to play with.
Cadel holds a much greater TT ability over Frank, than he does Andy. Frank needs a large time difference over Cadel and Andy not as much (maybe another 40-60secs).

Contador,
Contador didn't have the strength to work last night and struggled to hold on during the final climb to the point where he cracked and lost a big chunk off time.
Now sitting 4:44 back his chance of a GC win are over with a podium position his only hope albeit a tall order.
I feel that contador will want something out of this tour rather than just a top 10 or 5, he will want this stage.
It's one of the most famous tour stage finishers which as he no longer has anything to lose he would like this trophy.
I'd be looking at him to attack tonight with a view of a stage victory. GC position of low concern but if he were to win the stage as a bonus it could move him up for a shot at 3rd during the TT.

Basso,
Sits a little to far back on the GC for a realistic shot at the podium given the other riders still around, he as per Contador would like to take something away from this years tour.
Liquigas have very little in the way of results this tour, Basso may hope to change that.
He is still climbing well but has shown that he has that little extra ounce for him to win over the top of the others.

Sanchez,
Clearly fatigued having dropped very early on the final climb last night.
At 5:20 down now his podium is now out of reach, he already has one stage win and I'm sure wouldn't mind having the chance of one more.
Of all the top guys he may have had the easist ride last night, despite having dropped early he could just ride his own comfortable pace in the presence of other riders.
With that time gap he will no longer be marked and would be allowed the luxery off an attack without a chase.
If he has anything left in the tank, he'll put it all out there for the stage.




Overall,
I believe that when you put all the pieces of the puzzle together Evans is still in the best position to win the tour.
He has that extra TT strength that affords him a little time buffer, it's a tough tricky TT course to his liking (more so than the Schlecks).
Andy will have the question of 'can he back it up tonight and if so can he open up a larger time gap? if Yes, how much will that effort affect his TT ability?
Frank not only needs time over Evans but if he attacks and is responded to, will that hurt Andy's GC chances? if Yes, can Frank gain enough time over Evans to defend in the TT and if so how much fatigue factor will he have by doing so?
Then finally can Evans back up tonight and mark the Schlecks? if Yes, will he then have enough left to ride a TT sufficiently to overcome the 57secs deficit?

Oh yes! nearly forgot one more.
Can Voeckler actually defy expectation of cracking tonight and hold on to the final km or 2? if Yes, will he be able to TT and hold on to at least a podium in Paris?


These questions and more, stayed tuned.

 

[WALL-e]

Footy then LeTour.

Love it.

 

[telsor]

I have Evans still slightly ahead of Andy Schleck (very roughly I figure Evans will make up between 1 and 2 mins on the ITT, so <1min means Evans should win - I think Evans is usually more than 1-2mins better, but with the situation, Andy will be inspired to ride the TT of his life ), but anything could happen tonight. As before, his goal is not to lose time, particularly to Andy.

The Schlecks will be looking to make more time, and my guess is that they'll try that by reversing last nights tactics. A long way out, Frank will go for the break. If Cadel chases, the attacks will continue to tire him out, if he doesn't Frank will make as big a break as possible, forcing a similar situaton to last night. Either way, I think Andy will take the 'easy' route of just trying to hold on, then attack if he sees weakness, or worst case, going in the last few km to make up a smaller but potentially significant gap while remaining relatively fresh for the ITT).

Voeckler has one, simple, goal...To hold on for dear life. Keeping the yellow would be great, however unlikely, but every second he avoids losing improves his chances of a podium finish.

Contador. 2 days ago he looked imperial, yesterday he was poor to ordinary ( by the standards of the leaders ). If the Alberto of 2 days ago returns, and the contenders have written him off and aren't matching him all that closely, he could get back, but it seems unlikely. Still a chance at a podium.

I'm prepared to write the rest off.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Will be interesting to see which teams set the early tempo.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Cadel needs to let Frank or Andy up the road and maintain at say 30sec until as late as possible. Don't catch or the other will go. But don't let get too far either.

 

[mcgarnacle]

I'm not saying a ****ing thing about what may or may not happen tonight. Just going to have a few drinks now after work, get home about 21.30, leave the laptop in the draw and settle in for what should be coverage of virtualy the entire stage tonight. The pace will be high, and attacks from contenders will come early you'd think........ aahhh ****, I said I wouldnt say a thing......couldnt help myself.

One thing I will add though is Evans has done a great job physically, particularly last night. But he needs to have more nous tactically. He, Lelangue and BMC need to have contingencies for several of the most probable things that might be thrown at them tonight. Last night, they just waited for the pack expecting them to do something. Evans has to learn that he cannot rely on anyone not in Red & Black colours. If he's going to win this tour, he has to do it by relying on those he can trust.

That is what cycling is about. Physical abilities can get you far, but smarts win you the Tour de France. He can ask Carlos Sastre for a lesson.

 

[Scooter#10]

So nervous for this stage. I would really love to see Cadel win. and i believe this is the stage which will decide it, not the TT

Think the Schlecks will just try to tire Cadel out. Andy might have nothing left in the tank (we will see if thats true tonight) but Frank is the freshest of the bunch

 

[mcgarnacle]

I have Evans still slightly ahead of Andy Schleck (very roughly I figure Evans will make up between 1 and 2 mins on the ITT, so <1min means Evans should win - I think Evans is usually more than 1-2mins better, but with the situation, Andy will be inspired to ride the TT of his life ), but anything could happen tonight. As before, his goal is not to lose time, particularly to Andy.

The Schlecks will be looking to make more time, and my guess is that they'll try that by reversing last nights tactics. A long way out, Frank will go for the break. If Cadel chases, the attacks will continue to tire him out, if he doesn't Frank will make as big a break as possible, forcing a similar situaton to last night. Either way, I think Andy will take the 'easy' route of just trying to hold on, then attack if he sees weakness, or worst case, going in the last few km to make up a smaller but potentially significant gap while remaining relatively fresh for the ITT).

Voeckler has one, simple, goal...To hold on for dear life. Keeping the yellow would be great, however unlikely, but every second he avoids losing improves his chances of a podium finish.

Contador. 2 days ago he looked imperial, yesterday he was poor to ordinary ( by the standards of the leaders ). If the Alberto of 2 days ago returns, and the contenders have written him off and aren't matching him all that closely, he could get back, but it seems unlikely. Still a chance at a podium.

I'm prepared to write the rest off.

Contador and Sanchez were fatigued and demoralised by all the effort they put into the final kms into Pinerolo for nought. They worked hard there.

You burn too much energy along the way, it comes back to bite down the track. The first week knocked him about and he spent a couple stages this week working hard. But they have to watch him tonight. The Schlecks wont want him to get within a couple of minutes of their overall time if he goes for it tonight.

I cant see Andy backing it up tonight tho. It'll be a fast pace and he'll suck wheels most of the way. It has to be Frank. First priority for A is dont lose time. Second is take any advantage to put time on Evans no matter how small, just like F did on Galibier. Or perhaps they might just go the one one-two punch and try and blow it up tonight? I dunno. that's why Im just going to at sit home later tonight without the laptop and just take it all in.

If Evans is made to work hard again tonight, he may suffer in Grenoble. As I said before, there is a future cost to the energy used now. Needs his team more than ever.

 

[tigerT]

After last night, at least Evans now knows he cannot expect the peleton to chase down a likely F.Schleck attack. He MUST go with Frank and hope Andy cracks trying to follow after yesterdays efforts. Andy rarely shows strain on the bike even when hes hurting, that last kilometre he was hurting like never before - will be staggered if his legs are better than Cadels tonight. If they go at one pace then Voeckler will prob survive again sucking wheels. I hope Contador attacks, thats Cadels best chance to break Voeckler and Andy.

Personally I think its already over, odds are stacked against and will need a bit of luck to get some time back. Unlike most on here I dont think he can make up a minute in the TT, the final TT does some strange things to riders, the pressure is too much and Andy/Voeckler will know what they need to do if they have that buffer and will will themselves over the line. Heck sastre was a pretty poor TT rider people expected him to lose between 1.30-2mins and only lost 29secs. Not to mention the rocket fuel that helps. Cadel must make an impact tonioght to have any chance of taking yellow

 

[Hellgood]

Can't wait for this.

A lot of my hope for Evans is banking on Andy being stuffed more than he is, but then theres Frank aswell. Will be tough, but he can do it with a little bit of luck. Hopefully he can at worst finish with Andy and not lose more than a couple of minutes to Frank. Wouldn't be surprised to see Contador have a dig early like Andy did yesterday, could help Evans on the other hand though if Frank escapes with Contador and Contadors only looking for the stage win then it could be bad for Cadel. Anyway will be very exciting to watch.

Just out of interest, whats Voeckler's time trialling ability compared with the Schlecks? If he's still there on Alp de Huez then could it cause a bit of panic in the Schlecks camp? Having said that, he'll probably be dropped somewhere on that final climb and Frank may very well go early to really test Evans.

 

[bfff]

I'm really interested to see if BMC have any answers to Leopard-Trek's strategies. They have to pull something out of the bag tonight.

 

[tigerT]

Can't wait for this.

A lot of my hope for Evans is banking on Andy being stuffed more than he is, but then theres Frank aswell. Will be tough, but he can do it with a little bit of luck. Hopefully he can at worst finish with Andy and not lose more than a couple of minutes to Frank. Wouldn't be surprised to see Contador have a dig early like Andy did yesterday, could help Evans on the other hand though if Frank escapes with Contador and Contadors only looking for the stage win then it could be bad for Cadel. Anyway will be very exciting to watch.

Just out of interest, whats Voeckler's time trialling ability compared with the Schlecks? If he's still there on Alp de Huez then could it cause a bit of panic in the Schlecks camp? Having said that, he'll probably be dropped somewhere on that final climb and Frank may very well go early to really test Evans.

Voecklers TT ability is pretty poor by all accounts - but I wouldn't count on that this year tbh - this bloke continues to stick despite redlining each and every day. Major suss Will go like a rabbit in the TT if he's still in yellow or very close dont worry about that

 

[crazyman27]

I wouldn't be writing off Voeckler. Was still with the leaders when guys like Contador and Sanchez had cracked last night.

 

[rednblacks]

After last night, at least Evans now knows he cannot expect the peleton to chase down a likely F.Schleck attack. He MUST go with Frank and hope Andy cracks trying to follow after yesterdays efforts. Andy rarely shows strain on the bike even when hes hurting, that last kilometre he was hurting like never before - will be staggered if his legs are better than Cadels tonight. If they go at one pace then Voeckler will prob survive again sucking wheels. I hope Contador attacks, thats Cadels best chance to break Voeckler and Andy.

Personally I think its already over, odds are stacked against and will need a bit of luck to get some time back. Unlike most on here I dont think he can make up a minute in the TT, the final TT does some strange things to riders, the pressure is too much and Andy/Voeckler will know what they need to do if they have that buffer and will will themselves over the line. Heck sastre was a pretty poor TT rider people expected him to lose between 1.30-2mins and only lost 29secs. Not to mention the rocket fuel that helps. Cadel must make an impact tonioght to have any chance of taking yellow

Agree with this post. I'm not a cycling enthusiast but i remember that TDF a few years ago when they said Evans could win in the time trial and he gained a bit of time but no where near enough and i think no matter how much better TT you are if the other bloke is a minute and a half or 2 minutes or more in front and only has to stay in front of Evans to win then he is going to ride the wheels off it.

I assume the time trial sets the riders off in reverse order so the leading rider goes last? That would be another massive advantage for any of the Schlecks if they are in front of Evans going into the TT. Are the riders wired up in the time trial to know what the other riders are doing?

I reckon Cadel let the TDF go last night when Andy broke away, he should have gone with him and tried to counter any move of any of his main rivals. Might have another look at it but i thought initially he was going to go after Andy but he quickly gave up.

 

[sheller891]

is tonight going to be *ing great viewing or what?

cadel deserves a tour.

 

[blue gunslinger]

only the strong

 

[telsor]

Agree with this post. I'm not a cycling enthusiast but i remember that TDF a few years ago when they said Evans could win in the time trial and he gained a bit of time but no where near enough and i think no matter how much better TT you are if the other bloke is a minute and a half or 2 minutes or more in front and only has to stay in front of Evans to win then he is going to ride the wheels off it.

I assume the time trial sets the riders off in reverse order so the leading rider goes last? That would be another massive advantage for any of the Schlecks if they are in front of Evans going into the TT. Are the riders wired up in the time trial to know what the other riders are doing?

I reckon Cadel let the TDF go last night when Andy broke away, he should have gone with him and tried to counter any move of any of his main rivals. Might have another look at it but i thought initially he was going to go after Andy but he quickly gave up.

Agree that the TT isn't a sure thing and wont be based purely on trialing ability, and those deemed 'weak' are a hell of a lot more likely to surprise us on the upside than the other way around. Being inspired though can only affect things so much. A good TT'er requires discipline as much as anything...Going too hard, too early because the adreneline is flowing will mess them around as surely as anything. The other factor is how much will they have left. 2 days of chasing the Schlecks on big mountains could well leave Evans unable to go as hard as he might need to.

The bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush...and the second you lead by is worth 2 that might happen on a future stage.

 

[sblack]

Will be interesting to see which teams set the early tempo.

Leopard Trek, and probably only LT.

After last night, at least Evans now knows he cannot expect the peleton to chase down a likely F.Schleck attack. He MUST go with Frank and hope Andy cracks trying to follow after yesterdays efforts.

I don't think he should at all. If he tries to counter every Schleck attack, he will kill himself and risk losing more time. He should ride tempo, like yesterday, and hope to minimise losses. He isn't going to be able to go with them. Frank is not going to do a 60km solo like Andy. Andy will probably attack at the base of d'Huez, hoping for a reaction, then Frank goes. If Cadel doesn't follow Andy, then Andy will just keep riding away.

Cadel knows this though, so it will be up to him and his DS as to what direction he goes.

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

I am shitting bricks about today and tomorrow. I will have to download today's stage unfortunately, hoping to avoid spoilers.

Good luck to Evans, I feel he will need it.

 

[blue gunslinger]

I am shitting bricks about today and tomorrow. I will have to download today's stage unfortunately, hoping to avoid spoilers.

Good luck to Evans, I feel he will need it.

try eating dates

 

[KnobHead]

Should be an awesome two nights ahead - will be glad to get some sleep Sunday

Andy Schlek was awesome last night, but Evans did the right thing in not following (Schlek took a massive gamble that paid off, basically - easy to say Evans should've gone in hindsight, but at the time Schlek went Evans did the right thing, and doubt Evans would've stayed with Andy even if he went with Andy). Evans clawed back a bit of time at the end.

Evans needs some in the tank for the TT, even if that means losing 20 or so secs tonight (hopefully he won't) - Evans must play to his strengths to win, and minimise his losses where the Schleks are naturally stronger (ie. mountains)

KnobHeads know best

 

[happy_eagle]

If we can guarantee one thing its that Cadel wont attack
He hasnt attacked his whole career, and he wont need to

 

[rednblacks]

It looks like a race between the Schlecks and Evans. Voeckler just seems to be riding on others coat tails and from what others have said he is not a great TT. If Evans can go with what the Schlecks throw at him and not lose anymore time then he's in with a big shout. Contador and Sanchez look out of it.

It was a gutsy effort by Evans to get back the time he did but it probably shows he should have and could have gone with Andy.

 

[tigerT]

Leopard Trek, and probably only LT.



I don't think he should at all. If he tries to counter every Schleck attack, he will kill himself and risk losing more time. He should ride tempo, like yesterday, and hope to minimise losses. He isn't going to be able to go with them. Frank is not going to do a 60km solo like Andy. Andy will probably attack at the base of d'Huez, hoping for a reaction, then Frank goes. If Cadel doesn't follow Andy, then Andy will just keep riding away.

Cadel knows this though, so it will be up to him and his DS as to what direction he goes.

It all depends on how strong Andy is today after yesterdays heroics for mine. Personally I doubt he'll have the strength to back up in which case they may have to hedge their bets on Frank, if they are together on d'huez when Frank attacks(and he will) cadel has to respond and then keep going to crack andy. Cadel has to roll the dice tonight

 

[QuietB]

Cadel can afford to give Frank time. Therefore let him go. He cannot afford to let Andy go. Against Andy he needs to make time. Cadel needs to attack - maybe on the decent.