Analysis Team ratings

[grumbleguts]

I like that last one best. Anything that reinforces my passions...


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The reason why losses raise us in ratings is because the teams we have lost against are also highly rated while teams like geelong have lost against lowly rated teams this means we suck at losing.

Here's the list of teams rated as losers.

Essendon 38.2
Brisbane Lions 36.7
Fremantle 30.8
Gold Coast Suns 27.1
Collingwood 23.6
Carlton 23
Melbourne 22.1
Richmond 21.8
St Kilda 20.3
Port Adelaide 19
Geelong Cats 12.4
West Coast Eagles 10.7
GWS Giants 10
Sydney Swans 10
Adelaide Crows 8.5
North Melbourne 8.5
Western Bulldogs 8.5
Hawthorn 6.6

Remember this takes no margins into account, and is only based on who lost to whom.

 

[cryptor]

However if you also take into account who you lose to and not only who you defeated, the hawks suddenly look pretty decent (remember this does not takke into account the fact that 3 of our wins are only 3 points.)

Hawthorn 24.2
Adelaide Crows 22.8
Western Bulldogs 20.7
GWS Giants 20.4
Geelong Cats 19.5
Sydney Swans 19.2
North Melbourne 17.4
West Coast Eagles 8.8
Port Adelaide -2.4
St Kilda -4.7
Melbourne -6.2
Richmond -8.3
Carlton -8.6
Collingwood -9.5
Gold Coast Suns -18.3
Fremantle -25.1
Brisbane Lions -34.5
Essendon -35.4

This one is pretty close to how I have teams rated in my mind.
GWS would be higher if the difference between their home and away games weren't so great.

Perhaps one way to factor score lines into this would be to take the average winning margin of all games this year and then apply a modifier for that win value.

I'm just spitballing though. Not sure how the numbers might effect it. You might have to cap out the modifier value at a certain point otherwise some abberations might cause a team to be rated far to poorly or greatly (ie. GWS v Hawthorn).

 

[Furn2]

I don't get it.

How many beans are there and who are we supposed to bet them on ?

 

[Agent Smith]

I don't get it.

How many beans are there and who are we supposed to bet them on ?

Based on the fairytale, I'm guessing the Giants.

 

[grumbleguts]

After the latest round ratings look like this:
Using score ratios:


Sydney Swans 38.117
Geelong Cats 32.771
West Coast Eagles 30.221
Western Bulldogs 28.494
GWS Giants 27.908
Adelaide Crows 26.48
Hawthorn 23.615
Port Adelaide 12.572
North Melbourne 11.47
Melbourne 0.559
Collingwood -4.102
Richmond -7.198
Fremantle -16.284
Carlton -19.33
St Kilda -19.432
Gold Coast Suns -26.197
Brisbane Lions -42.762
Essendon -42.995

Using absolute wins and losses:


Hawthorn 34.3
Adelaide Crows 30.5
Western Bulldogs 28.1
Sydney Swans 23.1
Geelong Cats 20.7
GWS Giants 18.8
West Coast Eagles 16.8
North Melbourne 13.6
Port Adelaide -0.3
St Kilda -0.9
Melbourne -8.3
Collingwood -8.9
Richmond -10.4
Carlton -14.5
Gold Coast Suns -21
Fremantle -33.4
Brisbane Lions -42.1
Essendon -46.1

Defeating Swans by 5 points, in terms of score ratio still puts the swans ahead as they beat us by 14 points previously. However, having defeated them in absolute terms pushes them down and us up, we are now clearly ahead of the field if scoreline is ignored and only result is counted.

 

[grumbleguts]

After the latest round ratings look like this:
Using score ratios:


Sydney Swans 38.117
Geelong Cats 32.771
West Coast Eagles 30.221
Western Bulldogs 28.494
GWS Giants 27.908
Adelaide Crows 26.48
Hawthorn 23.615
Port Adelaide 12.572
North Melbourne 11.47
Melbourne 0.559
Collingwood -4.102
Richmond -7.198
Fremantle -16.284
Carlton -19.33
St Kilda -19.432
Gold Coast Suns -26.197
Brisbane Lions -42.762
Essendon -42.995

Using absolute wins and losses:


Hawthorn 34.3
Adelaide Crows 30.5
Western Bulldogs 28.1
Sydney Swans 23.1
Geelong Cats 20.7
GWS Giants 18.8
West Coast Eagles 16.8
North Melbourne 13.6
Port Adelaide -0.3
St Kilda -0.9
Melbourne -8.3
Collingwood -8.9
Richmond -10.4
Carlton -14.5
Gold Coast Suns -21
Fremantle -33.4
Brisbane Lions -42.1
Essendon -46.1

Defeating Swans by 5 points, in terms of score ratio still puts the swans ahead as they beat us by 14 points previously. However, having defeated them in absolute terms pushes them down and us up, we are now clearly ahead of the field if scoreline is ignored and only result is counted.

 

[OzJohnnie]

Your ratings are so good it's like I'm reading them three times.

I've come to settle that were second on the potential-to-win ladder due to pure guts. I put Adelaide ahead of us because I think the Crows are creating better scoring opportunities. We covert really well on what we get but they have a better supply.

I also think GWS could be above us but our guts beat their candy-ass plasticity. Same with the Swans, particularly if Tippit is in three side.

Doggies have guts, but like us are a little weak in forward opportunities. We've got more guts.

The Cats are limp-wristed handbaggers.

 

[grumbleguts]

Ratings after the last round:

Based on score ratio

Sydney Swans 36.598
Geelong Cats 32.754
West Coast Eagles 30.983
Hawthorn 27.147
Western Bulldogs 24.203
GWS Giants 23.486
Adelaide Crows 22.167
Port Adelaide 16.285
North Melbourne 13.363
Melbourne 1.404
Collingwood -6.064
Richmond -10.967
St Kilda -14.901
Fremantle -16.609
Carlton -17.893
Gold Coast Suns -26.246
Brisbane Lions -42.561
Essendon -46.117

Based solely on wins and losses

Hawthorn 36.1
Adelaide Crows 29.5
Sydney Swans 27.1
Geelong Cats 26.5
Western Bulldogs 26.2
GWS Giants 22.8
West Coast Eagles 20.8
North Melbourne 17
St Kilda 3.1
Port Adelaide -3.1
Melbourne -11.1
Collingwood -12.6
Richmond -13.2
Carlton -17.6
Gold Coast Suns -19.7
Fremantle -39.2
Brisbane Lions -42.6
Essendon -53.1

Notes: we are creeping up the ratings in the first category, although Brisbane's win over Essendon devalues our 100+ point win over them. We have risen from 7th to 4th in two rounds.

 

[OzJohnnie]

The first system is scores and wins/losses? Sort of taking into account who you beat and by how much?

What about performance against expectation? Do you think that's a useful question?

 

[grumbleguts]

The first system is scores and wins/losses? Sort of taking into account who you beat and by how much?

What about performance against expectation? Do you think that's a useful question?

The first system is score ratio, so if you win 60 40 the contribution would be 1.5 for one team and 0.667 for the other. If that team that loses has won a great deal of games against teams that have won a great deal of games, then the winning team would have received a much larger contribution to its rating, than if the losing team hadn't beaten anyone.

 

[grumbleguts]

round 19 Ratings based on score ratio
Sydney Swans 44.313
GWS Giants 40.182
Geelong Cats 29.462
Western Bulldogs 28.757
Hawthorn 26.359
Adelaide Crows 26.184
West Coast Eagles 26.102
North Melbourne 14.006
Port Adelaide 13.037
Melbourne 0.35
Collingwood -0.69
St Kilda -16.426
Carlton -19.028
Richmond -19.412
Fremantle -22.396
Gold Coast Suns -25.799
Brisbane Lions -44.634
Essendon -53.442

Round 19 ratings based on wins and losses only
Hawthorn 40.7
Geelong Cats 32.3
Adelaide Crows 32.3
Sydney Swans 30.2
Western Bulldogs 24.9
GWS Giants 24
North Melbourne 21.9
West Coast Eagles 18
St Kilda 1.5
Port Adelaide 1
Collingwood -8.3
Melbourne -8.6
Richmond -14.8
Carlton -19.8
Gold Coast Suns -24.6
Fremantle -43.2
Brisbane Lions -47.5
Essendon -55.2

 

[grumbleguts]

Round 9
Sydney Swans 135.8761
GWS Giants 129.5763
Geelong Cats 127.5612
Adelaide Crows 126.2597
West Coast Eagles 123.8679
Western Bulldogs 116.0758
Hawthorn 112.8825
North Melbourne 106.9513
Melbourne 88.85062
Port Adelaide 84.88779
Gold Coast Suns 73.90761
Collingwood 72.69306
Richmond 72.16456
Brisbane Lions 71.02502
Essendon 65.24481
St Kilda 64.22038
Fremantle 60.74817
Carlton 59.50057

Just going back over some of this to see how accurate it was. (2016)

This is the ladder at the same time.

NM 9 36 130.9
GE 9 28 152.0
GW 9 28 148.0
SY 9 28 144.2
WB 9 24 133.9
WC 9 24 129.6
HW 9 24 102.7
AD 9 20 118.4
ME 9 20 113.6
PA 9 16 100.5
CW 9 16 94.4
CA 9 16 76.7
SK 9 12 84.9
RI 9 12 81.6
GC 9 12 74.5
BL 9 4 62.1
ES 9 4 59.7
FR 9 0 68.4


This is the final ladder. Bear in mind North Melbourne were undefeated on top of the afl ladder at the time.
SY 22 68 151.2
GE 22 68 143.8
HW 22 68 118.6
GW 22 64 143.1
AD 22 64 138.3
WC 22 64 130.0
WB 22 60 115.4
NM 22 48 105.2
SK 22 48 95.7
PA 22 40 106.0
ME 22 40 97.6
CW 22 36 95.6
RI 22 32 79.5
CA 22 28 79.3
GC 22 24 78.2
FR 22 16 74.3
BL 22 12 61.6
ES 22 12 61.0

My system had Hawthorn lower than they finished but if you look at their percentage, mine was probably more accurate. Bear in mind this was round 9. And it was posted in June 2016.

Not too shabby at all.