The Countdown

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With 8 games to go until the finals here is the current ladder with only the teams that are in contention for the 8.

1. Hawthorn 12-2
2. Geelong 12-2
3. Essendon 11-3
4. Sydney 10-3-1
5. Fremantle 10-3-1
6. Collingwood 10-5*
7. Richmond 9-5
8. Port Adelaide 8-6
-----------------------
9. West Coast 7-7
10. North Melbourne 6-8
11. Carlton 6-8

In this weeks games the following games are key:
Port v Hawthorn
Richmond v Gold Coast
Carlton v St. Kilda
Brisbane v North Melbourne
West Coast v Fremantle

The results that would be great for us are: Hawthorn Richmond Saints Brisbane & Fremantle. It would see us open up a 2 game gap on Port, 3 games on West Coast and 4 games on North & Carlton. From there finals would be well and truly in our own hands. A bad week will be Port Gold Coast Carlton North & West Coast getting up as it would close the gaps down and would put a fair amount of pressure on us heading into the next 3 weeks where we play Fremantle Sydney and Hawthorn.

Each week from now I'll update this thread so that everyone can keep a track of what needs to be done to get us into the finals.

 

[TheProwler]

Surely the best result for us is to win the majority of our last 8 games? That would give us 13 or 14 wins and a ticket into the big dance

If we rely on other teams to fall over and we limp into the finals then there isn't much point in us making it. We don't want to do a Norf and get embarrassed in the first week of finals.

We should back ourselves to take some momentum into the finals with solid wins vs Brisbane, Carlton, GWS and the bombers

 

[sante]

Win today and we make it.

 

[Roachy8]

Win today and we make it.

IMO win today and one of the next 3 and we make it.

 

[Put a Lids on it]

IMO we need 13 wins then Ill be comfy at a minimum.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Confident about today after last weeks effort.Side will be switched on.
Should beat Freo over here.We owe them.
Doubt we,ll beat both Syd and Haw like last year,But i think out of the 2,The Swans we can beat.

Don't worry we,ll make it.

 

[Roachy8]

Confident about today after last weeks effort.Side will be switched on.
Should beat Freo over here.We owe them.
Doubt we,ll beat both Syd and Haw like last year,But i think out of the 2,The Swans we can beat.

Don't worry we,ll make it.

If we played the Swans at the MCG then I would be pretty confident.... in Sydney though I'm worried about our preferred style of run and spread on a much shorter ground.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

If we played the Swans at the MCG then I would be pretty confident.... in Sydney though I'm worried about our preferred style of run and spread on a much shorter ground.

Just saying Disco that we have a better chance against the Swans than Hawthorn.2yrs ago we stayed with them through the entire game up there,I think we have improved more than they have in that time.We matchup well against them for some reason.

 

[_RT_]

Surely the best result for us is to win the majority of our last 8 games? That would give us 13 or 14 wins and a ticket into the big dance

If we rely on other teams to fall over and we limp into the finals then there isn't much point in us making it. We don't want to do a Norf and get embarrassed in the first week of finals.

We should back ourselves to take some momentum into the finals with solid wins vs Brisbane, Carlton, GWS and the bombers

Agree but I'm looking at it from a securing a spot first angle. With a 2-3 game gap over the sides outside the 8 we're in a strong position, however all it takes is a couple of losses in games that we're expected to win and things can get a little tight.

This stage last year Essendon were in 6th spot with an 11-4 record and 3 games clear of North and Fremantle in 9th & 10th. They went on to lose 7 of the last 8 games and missed the finals finishing half a game ahead of us. So until we have a spot sewn up I think we have every right to be concerned.

By the way North didn't exactly limp into the finals last year they won 7 of 8 heading into the finals. What happens if we win 7 of 8 and then lose are you going to suggest we're just making up the numbers too?

 

[Roachy8]

I like the chances of Saints against Carlton tonight, with Milne back in and the likelihood that St Kilda will be very emotional about their teammate.
Despite Carlton's "need" to win this to stay at all alive, reckon they might go down which would be very very sweet!

 

[Coach_Required]

LOL I thought this thread was going to be about today's game........

D-Day

"You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the footy world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty-loving Richmond people everywhere march with you. In company with our brothers-in-arms you will bring about the destruction of our club being everyone's ongoing joke and the joy they get when seeing us on hard times, the elimination of fake commentators and their tyranny over the oppressed people of Punt Road, and security for ourselves in a free world."

 

[Harmichael]

 

[_RT_]

With the results of this weeks games the ladder now stands as:

1. Hawthorn 13-2
2. Geelong 13-2
3. Essendon 12-3
4. Sydney 11-3-1
5. Fremantle 11-3-1
6. Richmond 10-5
7. Collingwood 10-5
8. Port Adelaide 8-7
---------------------
9. Carlton 7-8
10. West Coast 7-8
11. North Melbourne 6-9

IMO these 11 teams are the sides that are left in contention for the finals with North v Carlton on Friday night effectively the Roos last chance to stay in the race. Lose and their finals hopes are done.

So with that in mind here are the games that are important to our quest for finals next week.

North v Carlton
Saints v Port
Gold Coast v Collingwood
Richmond v Fremantle (No Pavlich likely)
West Coast v Sydney

The Results We Want:
North Saints Gold Coast Richmond Sydney. Those results would see us close the gap on Fremantle and open up a bigger gap on Port(3 games) Carlton North & West Coast(4 games) and would put us well and truly in the drivers seat as far as finals are concerned.

Even if we were to lose on Sunday we should still find ourselves well entrenched in the 8 especially if North and Sydney win, as that would still see us 3 games clear of 9th with only 6 games remaining.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

For us to make finals I think we definitely need to win 1/3 out of Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn.

This week is our best bet.

Richmond Vs.
Fremantle - WIN (11-5)
Sydney - LOSS (11-6)
Hawthorn - LOSS (11-7)
Brisbane - WIN (12-7)
Carlton - WIN (13-7)
GWS - WIN (14-7)
Essendon - WIN (15-7)

That's how I see us ending up. Losing to either Carlton/Essendon will place us 14-8. We could still make it if we lost to both. But prefer not too. We should finish 14 wins, 15 wins our best, 6th-7th. Final against Collingwood at the MCG very very likely. Whether it's a home final or not, are gate takings 50/50? I bloody hope so.

Collingwood Vs.
Gold Coast - WIN (11-5)
GWS - WIN (12-5)
Essendon - LOSS (12-6)
Sydney - LOSS (12-7)
Hawthorn - LOSS (12-8)
West Coast - WIN (13-8)
North Melbourne - WIN (14-8)

Collingwood look good. Should make the 8, will lose either Essendon game or North Melbourne game I think. Collingwood should finish 14-15 wins, 6th-7th.

Port Adelaide Vs.
St. Kilda - WIN (9-7)
Brisbane - WIN (10-7)
Adelaide - LOSS (10-8)
Geelong - LOSS (10-9)
Gold Coast - WIN (11-9)
Fremantle - LOSS (11-10)
Carlton - ??? (11-11, 12-10)

This last match might actually decide who makes finals (unless Essendon are thrown out of the competition). Round 23 Vs. Carlton is the big match. I predict more to have 11 wins at the least, 12 at the most. 8th-9th.

-------------------------------

Carlton Vs.
North Melbourne - WIN (8-8)
Gold Coast - WIN (9-8)
Fremantle - LOSS (9-9)
Western Bulldogs - WIN (10-9)
Richmond - LOSS (10-10)
Essendon - WIN (11-10)
Port Adelaide - ???? (12-10, 11-11)

Last match will decide whether Carlton make finals. There season is well and truly alive. But they must beat North and put them away this week. I predict Carlton to defeat either Richmond/Essendon highly doubt they'll beat both or lose to both. 8th-9th.

West Coast Vs.
Sydney - LOSS (7-9)
Western Bulldogs - WIN (8-9)
Gold Coast - WIN (9-9)
Essendon - LOSS (9-10)
Geelong - LOSS (9-11)
Collingwood - LOSS (9-12)
Adelaide - WIN (10-12)

West Coast must defeat one of Sydney, Essendon, Geelong or Collingwood. If not, they're done for the season. That Collingwood game might be West Coasts last breath for the season which could bode well for Richmond. If they defeat Collingwood at home, Richmond will finish 6th most likely. I dont see West Coast winning more than 11, and I think they'll finish 10th at best.

North Melbourne Vs.
Carlton - LOSS (6-10)
Melbourne - WIN (7-10)
Geelong - LOSS (7-11)
Adelaide - WIN (8-11)
Essendon - LOSS (8-12)
Hawthorn - LOSS (8-13)
Collingwood - LOSS (8-14)

For North Melbourne, it's all about respect. They can ruin the chances of Carlton, Collingwood and possible Essendon for us. Whether they make up a few upsets or not, North Melbourne are definitely no chance to feature in September. 11th +++

Adelaide & Brisbane both need at least 11 victories to challenge Port and Carlton. That means for the rest of the season, they can only afford to lost two matches.

Adelaide will lose to Geelong, Fremantle and either Port/North in round 19-20. So Adelaide's season is effectively over. Their next month is very very difficult.

Brisbane Vs.
Melbourne - WIN (7-9)
Port Adelaide - LOSS (7-10)
St. Kilda - WIN (8-10)
Richmond - LOSS (8-11)
GWS - WIN (9-11)
Western Bulldogs - WIN (10-11)
Geelong - LOSS (10-12)

IF Brisbane beat either Richmond or Port Adelaide, they could actually have a crack at that final 8th spot. Easy games against Melbourne, St.KIlda, GWS and Western Bulldogs could give them 10 wins. They need to win all of these and defeat Port or Richmond for that 11th win. This could push them to 9th, enough for 9th-10th spot, which could work well because of what might happen to Essendon. Nonetheless, long shot, I think Brisbane will finish 10th on the Ladder, close to West Coast.

RICHMOND
Would need to lose to all of Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn to end up on only 12 wins. Which still might be enough for 8th spot by the looks of it.

It's time for the Tigers to defeat some decent teams to not only defend their spot in the 8, but to enhance on it. The position is definitely ours because if we're good enough for it we can definitely defeat 2/5 which places us on 14 wins and definite 6th-7th.

 

[Raptor]

As Maveric said, "Its bottom of the ninth, the score is tied, its time for the big one".

 

[_RT_]

Round 17 done and dusted.

Ladder:
1. Hawthorn 14-2
2. Essendon 13-3
3. Geelong 13-3
4. Sydney 12-3-1
5. Fremantle 11-4-1
6. Richmond 11-5
7. Collingwood 10-6
8. Port Adelaide 9-7
---------------------
9. Carlton 8-8
10. West Coast 7-9
11. Adelaide 7-9

These 11 sides are in the race for the 8. The top 5 are locks IMO, we're nearly there, but as was the case with Essendon last year, it's not over until it's over. We need to keep making sure that we take care of what we can control and we should be right though.

Next Weeks Key Games:
Essendon v Hawthorn
Gold Coast v Carlton
Pies v GWS
Fremantle v Adelaide
Port v Brisbane
Sydney v Richmond

Results We Want:
Hawthorn Gold Coast Pies(under 10 goals) Crows Brisbane Richmond. That happens and we're locked into September action.

 

[_RT_]

Round 18 in the books and finals race is becoming much clearer.

As it stands the ladder is:

1. Hawthorn 15-2 142.4%
2. Geelong 14-3 136.8%
3. Sydney 13-3-1 143.9%
4. Essendon 13-4 124.4%
5. Fremantle 12-4-1 122.8%
6. Richmond 11-6 113.3%
7. Collingwood 11-6 110.7%
8. Port 10-7 108.9%
------------------------------
9. Carlton 9-8 113.0%
10. North 7-10 122.8%

IMO these 10 sides are left in contention for the 8 and I only include the Roos because their % is far and away better than the 4 sides above them. However a loss on Friday night to Geelong will end their hopes. With that in mind the games that are important for us next week are:

North v Geelong
Hawthorn v Richmond
Carlton v Fremantle
Adelaide v Port
Collingwood v Essendon

If results go as expected the bottom of the 8 could be:
6. Richmond 11-7
7. Port 11-7
8. Collingwood 11-7
--------------------
9. Carlton 9-9

That would leave 4 sides fighting for 3 spots and Carlton would need a lot to go right over the remainder of the season to close the 2 game gap on the sides above them. Carltons last 4 games are Dogs, Us, Essendon & Port at AAMI at the same time we play Brisbane, Carlton, GWS & Essendon. I expect us to beat Brisbane and GWS to secure our spot in the finals. Carlton is a 50-50 game and well depending on what happens with Essendon and ASADA they could be spent by then.

So for all the concern about us missing finals, we'd have to lose every game from here on and have Carlton win all their games and Port & Collingwood to win 4 of 5.

 

[CoggaRules]

So in a two weeks time we will be playing to hang onto a spot in the 8. Dimma aint out of the woods yet.

 

[Damo80]

So for all the concern about us missing finals, we'd have to lose every game from here on and have Carlton win all their games and Port & Collingwood to win 4 of 5.

Blues could quite conceivably win all their games. Should be clear favorites against Dogs, and perhaps favorites against us and Port. Who knows with the Dons game.

That means even if we won Lions and Giants games, we would probably miss on %. :-\

Would be nice to beat the Hawks, but realistically, I'd be hoping we win against the Lions and then Blues to put it beyond doubt.

P.S. I reckon the Blues will beat Freo this week, which would make things VERY interesting!

 

[RunningBounce]

So for all the concern about us missing finals, we'd have to lose every game from here on and have Carlton win all their games and Port & Collingwood to win 4 of 5.

My fingers are crossed and my eyes screwed shut. Go you Tigers!

We'll know when it's a mathematical certainty. The sigh of relief from hundreds of thousands of Tigers will sound like every tyre in Melbourne deflating.

 

[Harmichael]

One good thing - GWS seem to play a lot worse at home than they do in Melbourne. (though they're a fair chance of winning up there this week.)

My worry is if they keep up with us for 3 quarters whether we'll have the mental strenghth to overrun them like the Filth & The Bummers did or we'll just do a typical Richmond, lose our heads and start panicking.

Every footballer born in the last 30 years knows we invariably go to pieces under pressure. These kids will be no different and will grow an extra leg if they're still a chance deep into the game - especially with Sheedy who knows our weaknesses better than most. Leon Cameron knows it too - from both sides.

 

[TIGER DAVE]

Blues could quite conceivably win all their games. Should be clear favorites against Dogs, and perhaps favorites against us and Port. Who knows with the Dons game.

That means even if we won Lions and Giants games, we would probably miss on %. :-\

Would be nice to beat the Hawks, but realistically, I'd be hoping we win against the Lions and then Blues to put it beyond doubt.

P.S. I reckon the Blues will beat Freo this week, which would make things VERY interesting!

there is a reason as to why we re 1.01 with the bookies to make the 8.....13 wins is a cert
win against lions and gws and we are in
port have crow, cats at shell, the suns , freo in perth and the blues...they will get done 90% by cats and freo.....so then they need to win all the other 3....if they do it means they beat the blues...and even if they do their % will have to be higher than ours ...so then if they beat the blues the blues have to win all 4 games left....possible but not probable

i'm going with the way the bookies are thinking and am going on holidays next week not September as usual .....remember all bookies live in toorak

 

[Damo80]

win against lions and gws and we are in

I'd have to agree. Lions if they're on could be a real danger game. If we win one of the next three I'll be comfortable, with Lions being the surest bet on paper. Lose that one, and watch our odd's blow out massively!