Expansion The Giants Impact

[The_Wookie]

Based on a series of tweets i wrote early this morning.

Attendance

• Prior to entry the Swans had 292,763 attendees in 2011, at an average of 26,615 per game. By 2019, the Swans themselves were doing better at ana verage of 31,000 per game.

• The Giants themselves were adding 12,411 per game to their matches in Sydney in 2011.
• This leads to an increase in aggregate attendance of 51% from 2011 to 2019, but a 13% decrease in average to 23,313.

Membership

• Note - The Swans reported in 2016 that 20% of their membership was based in Melbourne, and the Giants reported in 2018 that 15% of their membership was based in the ACT. Their figures have been adjusted here.
• In 2011, the Swans are estimated to have had 27,743 members in Sydney - but by 2019 that figure should have risen to about 49,000.
• GWS will have added about 25,000 to that figure for a total membership increase of about 171% to ~75,000. (GWS contributing about 34% of members)

Membership and Gate Revenue

• According to the 2012 Annual Report the Swans generated 12.503m from Gate reciepts and memberships, and by 2019 that figure had risen to 16.051m.
• The Giants added 2.14m to that to bring a total increase of 45% in gate and member revenes - 12% of which was GWS.

Sponsorship Revenue

• According to the Swans 2012 report they generated 13.522m in Sponsor revenues, rising to 19.225m in 2019.
• The Giants added 17.446m in sponsor revenue for a total sponsorship increase of 171% from 2012-2019., with the Giants accounting for 48%.

Television

• In 2011, the Swans had average audiences on FTA of 51,000, non Swans games averaged 18,000 and all games averaged 26,000 over the course of the year.
• In 2019, the Swans averaged 53,000 and Giants 32,000. Games involving neither averaged 20,000, and all games averaged 40,000
• The total FTA audience for Swans/Giants games rose 67% to 1.886m in 2019. This does not include Fox audiences, which were mostly not available in 2011.
• The average audience dropped from 51,000 in 2011 for the Swans by 12% when combined with the Giants in 2019 to 44,000 pg.

Participation

• In 2011, the AFL reported that Participation numbers in Sydney club football have increased by more than 26 per cent, from 10,789 to 13,638. However, the club data was adjusted in 2012 following an investigation.
• The 2011 report noted numbers reached a record 136,438, with growth of 21 per cent in western Sydney, eight per cent in NAB AFL Auskick, 11.5 per cent in school participation and 5.5 per cent in clubs. In 2018, it noted 278,389 participants in 14 leagues AND 260 clubs.
• ERASS data form 2010 gives the AFL a participation rate of 1.7% in NSW. Ausplay Data for 2019 gives the AFL a participation rate of 1.9%.
  
  
  
  

 

[The_Wookie]

Since 2012, GWS have received 103m over the AFL base distribution - about 10.3m per year - about 60m more than the Swans. (and a league average of 56m over base) GWS total funding since 2012 has been 193m from the AFL - about 10m over what their broadcast rights value was.

And that broadcast value based on the assumption that all AFl matches are worth the same. (which they almost certainly are not) lol.

 

[Walshawk]

Can GWS also take the credit for increasing the other 15 clubs’ membership by around the same percentage in that time?
I would suggest that almost all the metrics in your post would have happened anyway. AFL is Sydney was growing just as quickly before the Giants. All clubs membershiships have grown. AFL still has close to zero profile in Western Sydney. Crowds are horrible - lower than North when they played in Sydney in the 90s. If you take out the Swans games, GWS do not rate any higher in Sydney than Colllngwood, Essendon or Carlton. They also have zero away fans around Australia (ok, maybe 10 - 20 for a Vic game).
Relative to what was hoped for in 2008, off field it has been a failure.

 

[Kwality]

Can GWS also take the credit for increasing the other 15 clubs’ membership by around the same percentage in that time?
I would suggest that almost all the metrics in your post would have happened anyway. AFL is Sydney was growing just as quickly before the Giants. All clubs membershiships have grown. AFL still has close to zero profile in Western Sydney. Crowds are horrible - lower than North when they played in Sydney in the 90s. If you take out the Swans games, GWS do not rate any higher in Sydney than Colllngwood, Essendon or Carlton. They also have zero away fans around Australia (ok, maybe 10 - 20 for a Vic game).
Relative to what was hoped for in 2008, off field it has been a failure.

You conclude that the expansion has failed based on the above ? I wouldnt measure any other club on those figures alone.
More players into the playing pool/AFL lists is my prefered measure.

 

[The_Wookie]

Can GWS also take the credit for increasing the other 15 clubs’ membership by around the same percentage in that time?
I would suggest that almost all the metrics in your post would have happened anyway. AFL is Sydney was growing just as quickly before the Giants. All clubs membershiships have grown. AFL still has close to zero profile in Western Sydney. Crowds are horrible - lower than North when they played in Sydney in the 90s. If you take out the Swans games, GWS do not rate any higher in Sydney than Colllngwood, Essendon or Carlton. They also have zero away fans around Australia (ok, maybe 10 - 20 for a Vic game).
Relative to what was hoped for in 2008, off field it has been a failure.

You responding like this is not the least surprising.

This analysis was for GWS in Sydney/NSW. Not for every other club. That the game has grown since the arrival of GWS, and that GWS have contributed to that growth cannot be denied by the evidence.

Note: In my post I DO take out the Swans games And GWS DO rate higher than game featuring non AFL clubs by an average of more than 12,000 per game on FTA in Sydney,

 

[Walshawk]

You conclude that the expansion has failed based on the above ? I wouldnt measure any other club on those figures alone.
More players into the playing pool/AFL lists is my prefered measure.

How many extra players to you think are on AFL lists due to GWS? One? Two? Three? Most of these players are from Canberra or Riverina and would have been playing and drafted anyway. Israel Falou is certainly one extra GWS can claim.

 

[Walshawk]

You responding like this is not the least surprising.

This analysis was for GWS in Sydney/NSW. Not for every other club. That the game has grown since the arrival of GWS, and that GWS have contributed to that growth cannot be denied by the evidence.

Note: In my post I DO take out the Swans games And GWS DO rate higher than game featuring non AFL clubs by an average of more than 12,000 per game on FTA in Sydney,

It can be denied. The Swans crowds were just as high in 2003 -2010 as they have been since GWS. 2011 was a low year not a fair comparison point. Yes, there were some big games then @ Homebush but the SCG did have a slightly lower capacity then.
I would love a successful Western Sydney. I have penty of family in Sydney and have been to Showgrounds for games. Just like on the Gold Coast, most attendees at games are parents are expat Vics who have stuck with their team, and their kids who have jumped on the Giants. They certainly have no cut through in Western Sydney amongst non-AFL fans. Barely a blimp in any media. Given how big the Swans are, GWS should be doing much better off field. Port and Freo started out with maybe 25 % their city's support, but each has grown steadily to when each town is probably 65 - 35. But GWS' support has not changed. Sydney AFL fans would be 90/10 in Swans favour. What can't be denied is that there has been no real growth in GWS crowds or ratings in the past 10 years despite their on field success. I think being part Western Sydney, part Canberra is their biggest problem. They need to bite the bullet, rebrand as Western Sydney and ditch Canberra. The legal name of the club afterall, is Western Sydney. They trade as GWS. Or, perhaps relocate to Canberra, which, if you take out Swans games, has higher average crowds than Showgrounds. I am aware that this is never going to happen.

 

[Kwality]

How many extra players to you think are on AFL lists due to GWS? One? Two? Three? Most of these players are from Canberra or Riverina and would have been playing and drafted anyway. Israel Falou is certainly one extra GWS can claim.

Thats why the Queensland experience is a simpler measure.

 

[TWLS]

Based on a series of tweets i wrote early this morning.

Attendance

• Prior to entry the Swans had 292,763 attendees in 2011, at an average of 26,615 per game. By 2019, the Swans themselves were doing better at ana verage of 31,000 per game.
• The Giants themselves were adding 12,411 per game to their matches in Sydney in 2011.
• This leads to an increase in aggregate attendance of 51% from 2011 to 2019, but a 13% decrease in average to 23,313.

Membership

• Note - The Swans reported in 2016 that 20% of their membership was based in Melbourne, and the Giants reported in 2018 that 15% of their membership was based in the ACT. Their figures have been adjusted here.
• In 2011, the Swans are estimated to have had 27,743 members in Sydney - but by 2019 that figure should have risen to about 49,000.
• GWS will have added about 25,000 to that figure for a total membership increase of about 171% to ~75,000. (GWS contributing about 34% of members)

Membership and Gate Revenue

• According to the 2012 Annual Report the Swans generated 12.503m from Gate reciepts and memberships, and by 2019 that figure had risen to 16.051m.
• The Giants added 2.14m to that to bring a total increase of 45% in gate and member revenes - 12% of which was GWS.

Sponsorship Revenue

• According to the Swans 2012 report they generated 13.522m in Sponsor revenues, rising to 19.225m in 2019.
• The Giants added 17.446m in sponsor revenue for a total sponsorship increase of 171% from 2012-2019., with the Giants accounting for 48%.

Television

• In 2011, the Swans had average audiences on FTA of 51,000, non Swans games averaged 18,000 and all games averaged 26,000 over the course of the year.
• In 2019, the Swans averaged 53,000 and Giants 32,000. Games involving neither averaged 20,000, and all games averaged 40,000
• The total FTA audience for Swans/Giants games rose 67% to 1.886m in 2019. This does not include Fox audiences, which were mostly not available in 2011.
• The average audience dropped from 51,000 in 2011 for the Swans by 12% when combined with the Giants in 2019 to 44,000 pg.

Participation

• In 2011, the AFL reported that Participation numbers in Sydney club football have increased by more than 26 per cent, from 10,789 to 13,638. However, the club data was adjusted in 2012 following an investigation.
• The 2011 report noted numbers reached a record 136,438, with growth of 21 per cent in western Sydney, eight per cent in NAB AFL Auskick, 11.5 per cent in school participation and 5.5 per cent in clubs. In 2018, it noted 278,389 participants in 14 leagues AND 260 clubs.
• ERASS data form 2010 gives the AFL a participation rate of 1.7% in NSW. Ausplay Data for 2019 gives the AFL a participation rate of 1.9%.
  
  
  

Good summarys and reflects the facts on the ground. The participation rate is the giveaway. It is going to be slow grind up there despite the funding and everyones efforts up there.
The Swans are growing or were but may have peaked for a while with their crowds and members. We get told rightly or wrongly that there is a Buddy factor with that club.
GWS is another story and remains a work in progress but they are having some success with sponsorship growth along with the Swans.