The remaining games

[NUFC Tiger]

There was so much negativity after the Collingwood and Freo games - that shouldn't take away the decent start we've still made (this time last year we were 1-4)

After a bit of soul searching over the weekend, felt the need to try and help lift some of the doom and gloom - mainly for myself but if it helps others get over the Freo game, then I'm just helping out my fellow tigers

Firstly, we need to remember, Freo are a good side who many see as a possible top 4 team (as are Collingwood). Yes we've had back to back defeats and have some tough games coming up but we've only played 5 games so far and to be 3-2 isn't that bad really. At the start of the season, would anyone have expected us to both knock off Collingwood and Freo over there? I certainly wouldn't have.

Looking at the remaining fixtures...(apologies if the colour choices hurt anyone's retina's!)

6 Saturday, May 4 Geelong MCG Home
7 Saturday, May 11 Port Adelaide AAMI Away
8 Sunday, May 19 Melbourne MCG Home
9 Saturday, May 25 Essendon MCG Home
10 Monday, June 3 West Coast Patersons Away
11 Bye
12 Saturday, June 15 Adelaide MCG Home
13 Saturday, June 22 Western Bulldogs Etihad Away
14 Sunday, June 30 St Kilda MCG Home
15 Saturday, July 6 North Melbourne Etihad Away
16 Saturday, July 13 Gold Coast Cazalys Home
17 Sunday, July 21 Fremantle MCG Home
18 Sunday, July 28 Sydney SCG Away
19 Saturday, August 3 Hawthorn MCG Away
20 Saturday, August 10 Brisbane Lions MCG Home
21 Saturday, August 17 Carlton MCG Home
22 Sunday, August 25 GWS Skoda Away
23 TBC Essendon MCG Away

Blue = should win.​

Green = genuine 50/50 game.​

Orange = Probably a loss.​

Should wins = 7​

50/50 games =7​

Probable losses = 3​

Freo and North both squeezed into the 8 last year with 14 wins. Assuming we win all of the 'should win' games, that would put us on 10 wins for the year with probably only a further 3 or 4 wins on top of that needed to make the 8 from the remaining 10 games. Given 7 of those are 50/50 games (I tried to be conservative here but think we can have a decent chance of winning quite a few of those 50/50 games), we probably should be aiming to win at least half of these (3-4) which may be just enough put into the finals for the first time since 2001.

For the 'likely' losses, we match up quite well on Hawthorn and Geelong are carrying a few injuries into this week so I would give us a chance in either game provided we play to our best. We normally have a habit of causing an upset or two so if we can sneak a win against either Hawthorn, Geelong or even Sydney, that will put us right into contention provided we don't drop any games we should be winning.

Our second half of the year and specifically how we perform against the teams around us was always going to be the big test on whether we make finals or not. Let's just take it one week at a time and cheer the boys on. No need for any meltdowns just yet!

 

[Bazzar]

Should wins = 7​

50/50 games =7​

Probable losses = 3​

Good post.

And the "7 should wins" takes us to 10, and looking at the last 5 years, 14 wins should secure a spot especially now WC, Adelaide and North are way behind the 8 ball.



2012 8th 14 wins, 9th 11 wins
2011 8th 11 wins 1 draw, 9th 10 wins
2010 8th 11 wins, 9th 11 wins
2009 8th 10 wins 1 draw, 9th 9 wins
2008 8th 12 wins, 9th 11 wins 1 draw (Tiges that year)

 

[Cotcho]

I'm scared

 

[WATiger86]

Who here before the season had us 3-2 at this point? I probably had us at 2-3.

The Collingwood and Freo games were always going to be tough - Losing to freo by a point after hitting the front with a few minutes to go is hard to take, and yes we need to mature and close games like that out... BUT if Yarren didn't miss those open goals late in rd 1, things could be a lot worse. We've got over the line in one close one, and got pipped in another (away, against a side who won a final last year) - Poor old north have lost twice by under a kick against sides looking good for the top 4!

Chins up - we are sitting 6th and are playing reasonable footy - with a bit of luck we'll make finals this year - no need to melt down everytime we drop a game*

*Unless we go down against the gold coast again, then we melt down!

 

[carn tigez]

Great post. Shows that a win this week could be huge, follow it up with a win against Port and we'd be 6-2 going into Dreamtime.

 

[carn tigez]

Poor old north have lost twice by under a kick against sides looking good for the top 4!

That was us in rounds 1-5 last year. Can't say I'm feeling too much sympathy for Ninth Melbourne

 

[exceptional design]

Who here before the season had us 3-2 at this point? I probably had us at 2-3.

The Collingwood and Freo games were always going to be tough - Losing to freo by a point after hitting the front with a few minutes to go is hard to take, and yes we need to mature and close games like that out... BUT if Yarren didn't miss those open goals late in rd 1, things could be a lot worse. We've got over the line in one close one, and got pipped in another (away, against a side who won a final last year) - Poor old north have lost twice by under a kick against sides looking good for the top 4!

Chins up - we are sitting 6th and are playing reasonable footy - with a bit of luck we'll make finals this year - no need to melt down everytime we drop a game*

*Unless we go down against the gold coast again, then we melt down!

I did!!

 

[BC9_]

We will finish Top 4... All or nothing approach I know, but if we improve across the team and if the game plan clicks soon, we'll get there.

 

[johnno77]

Good post.

And the "7 should wins" takes us to 10, and looking at the last 5 years, 14 wins should secure a spot especially now WC, Adelaide and North are way behind the 8 ball.



2012 8th 14 wins, 9th 11 wins (Saints won 12 but who's counting)
2011 8th 11 wins 1 draw, 9th 10 wins
2010 8th 11 wins, 9th 11 wins
2009 8th 10 wins 1 draw, 9th 9 wins
2008 8th 12 wins, 9th 11 wins 1 draw (Tiges that year)

I think we're a good chance get to the 14-15 wins mark this season but I think less wins will make the 8 this season. Just my opinion but I think there will be a greater spread of teams winning this season. Gold Coast will win more games this season, Port already have, Brisbane will improve on their slow start, Bulldogs will get better (looked pretty good against Geelong). There was a clear gap between top 8 teams and bottom 8 teams last year which doesn't normally happen (in previous years there was a clear gap between top 4 and 5-10)

12 wins might sneak into the finals this year and based on only 5 games I know but there's a very good chance it's going to look completely different to last season.

 

[Bazzar]

I think we're a good chance get to the 14-15 wins mark this season but I think less wins will make the 8 this season. Just my opinion but I think there will be a greater spread of teams winning this season. Gold Coast will win more games this season, Port already have, Brisbane will improve on their slow start, Bulldogs will get better (looked pretty good against Geelong). There was a clear gap between top 8 teams and bottom 8 teams last year which doesn't normally happen (in previous years there was a clear gap between top 4 and 5-10)

12 wins might sneak into the finals this year and based on only 5 games I know but there's a very good chance it's going to look completely different to last season.

You have a good point. I will be interesting to go back those 5 years and compare the bottom 5 or 6 and game tally compared to where we think they are heading this year.

 

[WATiger86]

We will finish Top 4... All or nothing approach I know, but if we improve across the team and if the game plan clicks soon, we'll get there.

Love the enthusiasm, but it’s this mentality that fosters meltdowns!

Other causes of post-game meltdowns include, but are not limited to:
- 32 years of pain and disappointment;
- Severe intoxication;
- Investing unhealthy amounts of time and energy on the Baileys Ladder predictor; and
- Irresponsible gambling on the RFC.

 

[vmasco]

6 Saturday, May 4 Geelong MCG Home
7 Saturday, May 11 Port Adelaide AAMI Away
8 Sunday, May 19 Melbourne MCG Home
9 Saturday, May 25 Essendon MCG Home
10 Monday, June 3 West Coast Patersons Away
11 Bye
12 Saturday, June 15 Adelaide MCG Home
13 Saturday, June 22 Western Bulldogs Etihad Away
14 Sunday, June 30 St Kilda MCG Home
15 Saturday, July 6 North Melbourne Etihad Away
16 Saturday, July 13 Gold Coast Cazalys Home
17 Sunday, July 21 Fremantle MCG Home
18 Sunday, July 28 Sydney SCG Away
19 Saturday, August 3 Hawthorn MCG Away
20 Saturday, August 10 Brisbane Lions MCG Home
21 Saturday, August 17 Carlton MCG Home
22 Sunday, August 25 GWS Skoda Away
23 TBC Essendon MCG Away

Blue = should win.​

Green = genuine 50/50 game.​

Orange = Probably a loss.​

Should wins = 7​

50/50 games =7​

Probable losses = 3​

I did a similar thread towards the end of preseason with a prediction list for the season http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2013-win-loss-predictions.985356/ similarly I saw us realistically finishing with 12-14 wins and pie in the sky 16.

So far so good.

1. Carlt @ MCG Maybe+ (60:40 win:loss) Win
2. Saints @ mcg M+ Win
3. Doggies @ es Win Win
4. Pies @ mcg Maybe- (40:60 win:loss) Loss
5. Dockers @ ps M- Loss
6. Cats @ mcg M+
7. Port @ as W
8. Melb @ mcg W
9. Ess @ mcg W
10. Eagles @ ps M-
11. Bye
12. Adel @ mcg M+
13. Doggies @ es W
14. Saints @ mcg M+
15. North @ es W
16. Suns @ caz W
17. Dockers @ mcg M-
18. Syd @ scg M-
19. Haw @ mcg M-
20. Bris @ mcg W
21. Carlt @ mcg W
22. GWS @ sk W
23. Ess @ mcg W

 

[CoggaRules]

Who here before the season had us 3-2 at this point? I probably had us at 2-3.

The Collingwood and Freo games were always going to be tough - Losing to freo by a point after hitting the front with a few minutes to go is hard to take, and yes we need to mature and close games like that out... BUT if Yarren didn't miss those open goals late in rd 1, things could be a lot worse. We've got over the line in one close one, and got pipped in another (away, against a side who won a final last year) - Poor old north have lost twice by under a kick against sides looking good for the top 4!

Chins up - we are sitting 6th and are playing reasonable footy - with a bit of luck we'll make finals this year - no need to melt down everytime we drop a game*

*Unless we go down against the gold coast again, then we melt down!

Bookmark it WA...if that happens, we will soon thereafter see the first of the pressas, telling all that the coach has the full support of the board and we all know what that means..

 

[Dusty Cotch]

Win 9 more we might get in,Win 10 more we should get in,Win 11 & we will get in.
Lets just take it 1 game at a time & get the job done!

 

[Hotcox]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

 

[chrstphrwnstn]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

Oh okay. I guess we shouldn't even bother showing up for those games then. We forfeit.

 

[tigs2010]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

Lol at counting Carlton as a loss. Skip round 1 did we? if we had our kicking boots on wed have been 12 goals up at half time. What makes u think u can make that difference up? How cute. Also if we can get within 1 point of freo away I'm pretty confident against west coast.

 

[Raptor]

Put Freo game down as a win playing at home

 

[Spagman]

You have Sydney & Hawthorn down as losses yet we beat them last year.

Thankfully nothings a certainty and the way some other teams are going with injuries, we might be able to get a leg up in many of those 50/50's if we can stay injury free ourselves.

The way I see it though is that we fall over in the defensive bits of the game that should be drilled into the players heads from an early age. Our run, carry, passing is almost there - although not at a Geelong level yet which for me, is the benchmark - but it's those silly errors that a team like Geelong doesn't make which keeps killing us.

 

[THE_GUN]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

Carlton are a rabble and we will bend you same as we did in round 1 but this time without taking the foot off the pedal.

Gold Coast WONT beat us this year, That is 1 game the boys wont let go of again

 

[vmasco]

Round 12 Sat 15 Jun Adelaide MCG L*
Round 13 Sat 22 Jun Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium W
Round 14 Sun 30 Jun St Kilda MCG W
Round 15 Sat 6 Jul North Melbourne Etihad Stadium W
Round 16 Sat 13 Jul Gold Coast Cazalys Stadium W*
Round 17 Sun 21 Jul Fremantle MCG L
Round 18 Sun 28 Jul Sydney SCG L
Round 19 Sat 3 Aug Hawthorn MCG L
Round 20 Sat 10 Aug Brisbane MCG W
Round 21 Sat 17 Aug Carlton MCG L*
Round 22 Sun 25 Aug GWS Skoda Stadium W
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug Essendon MCG W*

I'm liking the second half of the season. Just modified a few previous predictions and we finish on 13 wins. I'm putting us down for a loss after the bye.

*Critical: results may differ but W/L ratio must remain 50/50 for these 4 games to remain in hunt. Extra wins bonus!

As far as that being enough to make finals looking at the other contenders (assuming Geelong, Freo, Sydney, Hawks remain dominant), and Bombers have a reasonably fancied second half probably five other teams are thereabouts for finals (maybe not Eagles)...

Adelaide 11 wins
Round 12 Sat 15 Jun Richmond MCG W
Round 14 Sat 29 Jun Gold Coast Metricon Stadium W
Round 15 Sat 6 Jul West Coast AAMI Stadium L
Round 16 Fri 12 Jul Collingwood MCG L
Round 17 Sun 21 Jul Geelong AAMI Stadium L
Round 18 Sat 27 Jul Fremantle Patersons Stadium L
Round 19 Sun 4 Aug Port Adelaide AAMI Stadium W
Round 20 Sun 11 Aug North Melbourne AAMI Stadium W
Round 21 Sun 18 Aug Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium W
Round 22 Sat 24 Aug Melbourne AAMI Stadium W
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug West Coast Patersons Stadium L

Carlton 13 wins
Round 12 Fri 14 Jun Hawthorn Etihad Stadium L
Round 14 Fri 28 Jun Sydney SCG L
Round 15 Fri 5 Jul Collingwood MCG L
Round 16 Sat 13 Jul St Kilda Etihad Stadium W
Round 17 Fri 19 Jul North Melbourne Etihad Stadium W
Round 18 Sat 27 Jul Gold Coast Metricon Stadium W
Round 19 Sat 3 Aug Fremantle Etihad Stadium L
Round 20 Sat 10 Aug Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium W
Round 21 Sat 17 Aug Richmond MCG W
Round 22 Sat 24 Aug Essendon MCG W
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug Port Adelaide AAMI Stadium W

Collingwood 15 Wins
Round 11 Mon 10 Jun Melbourne MCG W
Round 12 Sun 16 Jun Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium W
Round 14 Sat 29 Jun Port Adelaide AAMI Stadium W
Round 15 Fri 5 Jul Carlton MCG W
Round 16 Fri 12 Jul Adelaide MCG W
Round 17 Sat 20 Jul Gold Coast Metricon Stadium W
Round 18 Sat 27 Jul GWS MCG W
Round 19 Sun 4 Aug Essendon MCG L
Round 20 Sat 10 Aug Sydney ANZ Stadium L
Round 21 Fri 16 Aug Hawthorn MCG L
Round 22 Fri 23 Aug West Coast MCG W
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug North Melbourne MCG W

Fremantle 16 Wins
Round 12 Sat 15 Jun Brisbane Patersons Stadium W
Round 13 Sun 23 Jun North Melbourne Patersons Stadium W
Round 14 Sat 29 Jun Geelong Simonds Stadium L
Round 15 Sun 7 Jul St Kilda Patersons Stadium W
Round 16 Sun 14 Jul West Coast Patersons Stadium L
Round 17 Sun 21 Jul Richmond MCG W
Round 18 Sat 27 Jul Adelaide Patersons Stadium W
Round 19 Sat 3 Aug Carlton Etihad Stadium W
Round 20 Sun 11 Aug GWS Patersons Stadium W
Round 21 Sun 18 Aug Melbourne MCG W
Round 22 Sat 24 Aug Port Adelaide Patersons Stadium W
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug St Kilda Etihad Stadium W

West Coast Eagles 10 Wins
Round 13 Fri 21 Jun Hawthorn Etihad Stadium L
Round 14 Thu 27 Jun Essendon Patersons Stadium W
Round 15 Sat 6 Jul Adelaide AAMI Stadium W
Round 16 Sun 14 Jul Fremantle Patersons Stadium L
Round 17 Sun 21 Jul Sydney Patersons Stadium L
Round 18 Sun 28 Jul Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium W
Round 19 Sat 3 Aug Gold Coast Patersons Stadium W
Round 20 Sun 11 Aug Essendon Etihad Stadium L
Round 21 Sat 17 Aug Geelong Patersons Stadium L
Round 22 Fri 23 Aug Collingwood MCG L
Round 23 Sat 31 Aug Adelaide Patersons Stadium W

Can't see any of North, Brisbane, or Port of being in contention unless they have a huge turnaround in form. GCS may be a dark horse but I doubt it.

BRING IT ON !!!

 

[Dusty Cotch]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

Well we beat the Eagles , have beat the Blues once already & North are so overrated & play one way football. They have less defensive pressure than us. Front runners of the highest order. We will beat them comfortably. By then there season will be well & truly shot.

 

[Squibbs]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

Hehehehehe.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

You can count Carlton, West Coast (in Perth) and North Melbourne (At etihad) as definite defeats. Also you have never defeated the Gold Coast so how can you claim that would be a definite win? You will win 10-12 games for the year.

teehee.

Did they write this before or after Carltank lost to St Kilda?

 

[Bazzar]

teehee.

Did they write this before or after Carltank lost to St Kilda?

No need to give him a hard time, after all Carlton smashed the Suns last time they played them.