Top Fluc

[Deepthroat]

Can someone explain this to me?

I placed a win yesterday on a betting website using Top Fluc.

The TAB paid $1.70 for the win, and a mate got $1.80 before the race.

When I checked the account last night I only got $1.50.

How is this so?

 

[The Midfield General]

That would have been so because options like "Top Fluc" or "Maxi Div" work only on the odds presented on that given sports betting site.

For example, if you place a bet on Site A on a top fluc bet, and the highest on that site it ever gets is 2.20, but on another site or the TAB the price blows out late to 2.50, the 2.20 is the only odds given for "the highest fluctuation" on Site A.

Basically, a lot of those type of option bets on sites are almost con jobs, check the fins print in the betting types section of most sites, and there are so many clauses for them to get out.

That's why I use SportingBet still for most betting now, as I can easily flick through the 3 main markets (NSW, Unitab and SuperTab-Vic etc) and place a bet on the highest paying price just before they jump.

I usually try and avoid options like Maxidiv or Top Fluc, they seem to be very hard to understand what you will actually get as a dividend.

Top Fluc has nothing to do with whats shown on websites during betting. The Top Fluc is derived from the top price bet ON TRACK. The only website this would appear on in Colin Tidy's site as he bets the track odds. What I would imagine has happened in this case with it being a short fav, the on course bookies have kept it and not driffed the price and it has paid better on the totes.

If you are betting at the short end of the market, then over the distance Top Fluc will work out better than the totes. If they are at longer odds then a tote based product is better. No con jobs.

Be aware that the big punters and the corp bookies have access to the tote pool up to 10 secs after the jump to back bet into so they can smash the prices.

Hope this clears things up a bit.

 

[Hoffy95]

I usually try and avoid options like Maxidiv or Top Fluc, they seem to be very hard to understand what you will actually get as a dividend.

Wat!?

You best be joking?

 

[krusher]

Top Fluc has nothing to do with whats shown on websites during betting. The Top Fluc is derived from the top price bet ON TRACK. The only website this would appear on in Colin Tidy's site as he bets the track odds. What I would imagine has happened in this case with it being a short fav, the on course bookies have kept it and not driffed the price and it has paid better on the totes.

If you are betting at the short end of the market, then over the distance Top Fluc will work out better than the totes. If they are at longer odds then a tote based product is better. No con jobs.

Be aware that the big punters and the corp bookies have access to the tote pool up to 10 secs after the jump to back bet into so they can smash the prices.

Hope this clears things up a bit.

exactly how do they access tote after the jump - that would clearly be an unfair advantage

please explain

 

[Jan Juc]

Welcome to reality.

 

[Oaksnaf]

If I don't like reality Jan Juc, is there a game that I can play?

 

[Jan Juc]

You could try a poker machine I guess as it seems in a pokies player's world - in their reality - all you have to do is rub the belly of the machine or stroke the symbols on the screen to win....

 

[footyman]

Can someone explain this to me?

I placed a win yesterday on a betting website using Top Fluc.

The TAB paid $1.70 for the win, and a mate got $1.80 before the race.

When I checked the account last night I only got $1.50.

How is this so?

You were pretty unlucky. Generally I go with a Maxidiv option with Sportingbet and take best of the three totes or the SP (whichever is higher).

TF is ok on short favs, and when there are large on track betting rings that bet to lowish percentages. Sydney for example is a good place to go TF.

 

[The Midfield General]

exactly how do they access tote after the jump - that would clearly be an unfair advantage

please explain

All the big players that receive rebates from the TAB's for their turnover, will get this access. It allows them to manage their books and the TAB's get the extra turnover. Hence the reason you can see some big changes in prices on small pool dog races from the time the green light goes on til the final results are announced.

 

[Daytripper]

All the big players that receive rebates from the TAB's for their turnover, will get this access. It allows them to manage their books and the TAB's get the extra turnover. Hence the reason you can see some big changes in prices on small pool dog races from the time the green light goes on til the final results are announced.

Mate I used to work for a corporate and I can tell you that is 100% not true.

Its illegal for a start.

The changes you see are the result of bets (from the corporates most of the time) going on in the last 20 seconds or so. The tote is not dynamic. It takes 30 seconds or so for the bet to reflect on what we see at home or at the TAB. Hence why you see changes mid-race - and in the case of greyhounds sometimes post race.

 

[sethlad]

Ive heard this 100 times over the years but am yet to meet anyone who has this so called access.

I also reckon its an urban myth

seth

 

[Oaksnaf]

Whether it's legal or not won't impact people's pursuit to profit. Any means possible.....

Lets play Chinese Whispers.

"Did you see how the odds changed when betting closed"

"Did you hear David X had 100k on that winner"

"David had 100k when betting had closed on that winner"

"David has access to betting after the event is closed so he can pick winners"


Fiction until someone provides the evidence with facts.

 

[Schmucta]

I am not sure about getting on after the jump, but I have had a sneaking suspicion about bets being cancelled and refunded after a race.

A few months back, in the Sale greyhounds there was a very interesting market change after the race.

The red dog was paying around 1.70 to 1.90 all through betteing, even up until the odds window on Skychannel closed so the race could be shown in full screen.

The 2 dog was paying minimum 9.00 at every update.

Of course the 2 dog comes out and wins, and the dividend goes up on the screen as 9.40, I know this because I was on it and watching. Around 30 seconds later, the dividend now changes to 6.40.

Now if you take that at face value, that happens every day of the week, plenty of times.

However, we now can see that the red dog started the race at 3.20, actually coming in apparently from 3.70 5 mins prior to jump time.

At no stage was those prices available, and when you look at the win pool something else interesting appears.

The win pool is a paltry 3796.

Take into account that this race was the best on the card by far, and the previous race pools on that race card were:

Race 1 (mdn ht) 13066
Race 2 (mdn ht) 10559
Race 3 (grd 5) 12697
Race 4 (grd 5) 8471
Race 5 (grd 4/5) 7804
Race 6 (grd 5) 10365
Race 7 (FFA) 9215

Now this was getting late in punting night for a Sunday, but the very next race, the pool was again back up to 7953 for a grade 5.

I can see that a bet has been cancelled in this race on the favourite, and a decent sized one at that, it's the only explanation I can see, and it has to be a bet placed atleast 5 mins before race time, as the 3.70 was never on offer with 5 mins to go, but according to UniTAB site, it was.

I don't know about others who have placed a bet they wanted cancelled after jump time, but it is done by the tab operator at the place you made the bet ringing the TAB and verifying you actually asked for the bet to be cancelled, but the TAB operator did not get this done before the race jumped. I have seen this done on more than one occassion.

 

[Daytripper]

^^^^^
Dog prices change dramatically in the last 2 minutes. 90% of the pool money goes on in this period.

Nothing unusual AFAIC.

 

[Schmucta]

^^^^^
Dog prices change dramatically in the last 2 minutes. 90% of the pool money goes on in this period.

Nothing unusual AFAIC.

Yes, I understand this.

How do you explain though that with 5 mins to go before jump, the faves price was 1.70, yet when the prices have been calculated after the event, it shows 3.70?

Nothing fishy?

 

[Daytripper]

Yes, I understand this.

How do you explain though that with 5 mins to go before jump, the faves price was 1.70, yet when the prices have been calculated after the event, it shows 3.70?

Nothing fishy?

Mate on a Sunday twilight dogs race, the pool 5 minutes before the jump would have been about $500.

Total bets of $250 in that pool would make it $1.70.

Once more money comes in, that $250 no longer makes such a dent in the pool and hence it eases.

You need to completely disregard the prices on the Tote for any greyhound race until 2 minutes before the jump - and even then its not that accurate either.

 

[Oaksnaf]

What tote.

Weird and wonderful things happen on Unitab.

 

[Schmucta]

Mate on a Sunday twilight dogs race, the pool 5 minutes before the jump would have been about $500.

Total bets of $250 in that pool would make it $1.70.

Once more money comes in, that $250 no longer makes such a dent in the pool and hence it eases.

You need to completely disregard the prices on the Tote for any greyhound race until 2 minutes before the jump - and even then its not that accurate either.

I am not sure you actually understand what I am saying.

I am not disputing the fact that it was 1.70 with 5 mins remaining. The pool size does not matter for this.

The Tab site has it at 3.70 with 5 mins to go, so it has clearly been changed some way or another. The only way it can be changed is if a bet has been cancelled, and since it has actually come in from its 5 mins before jump price, which was not the price it was paying, it had to have been a bet placed before the 5 min to jump time.

Pool sizes matter none when the prices are shown for everyone to see on the Tab site.

Just on this, it started 3.20 on unitab, and 2.10 and 2.20 on the other two totes, after showing 1.90 when the green light came on.

 

[Schmucta]

What tote.

Weird and wonderful things happen on Unitab.

Spot on, have a quick peruse of the 5 mins to go price, and then the actual starting price for the winners, either unitab punters only back the winners late, or something fishy is happening.

 

[Daytripper]

I am not sure you actually understand what I am saying.

I am not disputing the fact that it was 1.70 with 5 mins remaining. The pool size does not matter for this.

The Tab site has it at 3.70 with 5 mins to go, so it has clearly been changed some way or another. The only way it can be changed is if a bet has been cancelled, and since it has actually come in from its 5 mins before jump price, which was not the price it was paying, it had to have been a bet placed before the 5 min to jump time.

Pool sizes matter none when the prices are shown for everyone to see on the Tab site.

Just on this, it started 3.20 on unitab, and 2.10 and 2.20 on the other two totes, after showing 1.90 when the green light came on.

Of course pool sizes matter - thats how dividends are derived.

As for the fluctuation - another dog could have been backed. You need to understand that with only $500 in the pool with 5 minutes to go, all it takes is $50 each on the remaining dogs to see it blow out dramatcally.

POOL SIZES MATTER.
THEY ALWAYS MATTER.

 

[Schmucta]

Of course pool sizes matter - thats how dividends are derived.

As for the fluctuation - another dog could have been backed. You need to understand that with only $500 in the pool with 5 minutes to go, all it takes is $50 each on the remaining dogs to see it blow out dramatcally.

POOL SIZES MATTER.
THEY ALWAYS MATTER.

I am not stupid, I do know how the dividends are derived. If you have a look what I said, the pool size means nothing, FOR THIS.

The dog was paying 1.70 with 5 mins to go. The site after the race says it was paying 3.70. This can only happen if a bet that was placed before the 5 min mark has now been cancelled.

It did not ease because another dog was backed, as the 5 min to jump price would still be 1.70 would it not???

all it takes is $50 each on the remaining dogs to see it blow out dramatcally.

But it did not blow out, according to the unitab site it shortened. 3.70 into 3.20.

That is what I am saying, what happened in front of my eyes was altered after the race. Explain to me how any of that could happen unless a bet was cancelled.

 

[Daytripper]

I am not stupid, I do know how the dividends are derived. If you have a look what I said, the pool size means nothing, FOR THIS.

The dog was paying 1.70 with 5 mins to go. The site after the race says it was paying 3.70. This can only happen if a bet that was placed before the 5 min mark has now been cancelled.

It did not ease because another dog was backed, as the 5 min to jump price would still be 1.70 would it not???

all it takes is $50 each on the remaining dogs to see it blow out dramatcally.

But it did not blow out, according to the unitab site it shortened. 3.70 into 3.20.

That is what I am saying, what happened in front of my eyes was altered after the race. Explain to me how any of that could happen unless a bet was cancelled.

You seem to be under the impression that the TAB dividends update dynamically, ie every time a bet is placed, the odds are calculated and then changed on the board.

This does not happen.

Dividends are updated every 30 seconds or so and in the last 5 minutes of a Sunday twilight dog race with tiny pools, they can and do change dramatically.

If you can tell me that the pool was $500 and then 30 seconds later the pool was $400 then and only then can we say definitively that a bet was cancelled.

Also, when you place a bet with an operator they enter it into the system. They then read it back to the punter. Its not beyond the realms of impossibility for the operator to have punched in $100 by mistake instead of $10 and to have it corrected by the punter when it was read back to him.

 

[Schmucta]

You seem to be under the impression that the TAB dividends update dynamically, ie every time a bet is placed, the odds are calculated and then changed on the board.

This does not happen.

Dividends are updated every 30 seconds or so and in the last 5 minutes of a Sunday twilight dog race with tiny pools, they can and do change dramatically.

If you can tell me that the pool was $500 and then 30 seconds later the pool was $400 then and only then can we say definitively that a bet was cancelled.

Also, when you place a bet with an operator they enter it into the system. They then read it back to the punter. Its not beyond the realms of impossibility for the operator to have punched in $100 by mistake instead of $10 and to have it corrected by the punter when it was read back to him.

You seem to have missed the point.

Where did I say it updated dynamically?

All I have said it was never paying 3.70, on any tab, yet the unitab site says it was after the race.

And I was also unaware when you filled a ticket out and slipped it into the machine, that the operator behind the counter read your bet back to you...

 

[Schmucta]

Here is an example, and I hope it explains it better.

4000 win pool on a dog race with 5 mins to go.

2028 on a dog to make it 1.70

at race time 6000 in pool

2722 on a dog to make it 1.90

Someone decides they want to cancel a 1600 dollar bet on that dog. the pools would be updated as such.

2400 in pool with 5 mins to go

428 on dog to make it 4.80


4400 in pool at jump time

1122 on dog to make it 3.90.

This is as close to the scenario as I can see happened. There is no other explanation for the dog to be calculated at 3.70 with 5 mins to go when it was nowhere near that price, ever.

You still have not answered how the dog can be recorded as being 3.70 with 5 mins to go, when it was no higher than 1.90 until the greenlight came on?

 

[Daytripper]

^^^^^
You really need to understand how the paramutual wagering system works.

Secondly, not all bets are placed via the TAB agency. Some are placed over the phone and hence they are read back to you.

Anyway, I think your mind is made up that there is some vast conspiracy here when all it is, is simple mathmatics.