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Top four gone???

  • Thread starter Thread starter Geoffa32
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5th is fine.

Only real difference is an away semi final, really.
 
DirrtyBee said:
If we finish 5th or 6th do we play home EF?
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Yes we do.......

Top four means we have a home Prelim if we win the first final. Also since 1998 no team has won a flag from outside the top four spot, so it is handy to make it.

Looks like we will have to do it tougher...............
 

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Lowest we can finish is 7th and if we beat the Weagles tomorrow (we should), we will probably finish 5th or 6th setting up a home EF (of course that position will be determined against the tankers). Most likely to play against Brisbane or Essendon.
 
PrideofSA said:
Even if we beat the Eagles we can still finish 7th.

If Brisbane beat Port and Sydney

and Carlton beat Melbourne and us

= 7th spot for us.


Now this scenario isn't really even far fetched.

Fact of the matter is we need to win both. We can't rely on Brisbane losing to Port or Sydney or Carlton losing to Melbourne.
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It really isn't is it. I thought 5th or 6th would be stitched up apparently not. I hate having to rely on other games and getting so worked up over teams I don't give a crap about in any other rounds of the year.
 
PrideofSA said:
Even if we beat the Eagles we can still finish 7th.

If Brisbane beat Port and Sydney

and Carlton beat Melbourne and us

= 7th spot for us.


Now this scenario isn't really even far fetched.

Fact of the matter is we need to win both. We can't rely on Brisbane losing to Port or Sydney or Carlton losing to Melbourne.
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Exactly, the ball is in our court. I've still got a really good feeling about our finals prospects though because unlike in previous years we are set to go in with class across the ground, not just in a few areas. The only question mark is Bock. He plays and we have a very solid 22, he doesn't and the potential is there to leak goals across half forward. But yes, destiny in our hands stuff and if we don't win both we have only ourselves to blame for a lower-than-5th finish.

Smash the eagles tomorrow and onward from there.
 
Geoffa32 said:
Unless we belt the Toasters and Carltank and make up 12 percentage points, the best we can do is 5th. Two wins will secure that................
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Just like sunburn and a hangover self inflicted wound should have beaten Geelong and Collingwood

Not much between 5th and 6th as far as the 2nd week goes either Geelong or the Dogs
 
PrideofSA said:
What are the chances of us hammering West Coast and Carlton and the Bulldogs getting hammered by Collingwood and finishing 4th on %?

It's possible, just unlikely.

We could pull a St Kilda last year and win by over 100 pts and take 4th lol.
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If Collingwood beat Bulldogs by say 50 points, then we would need to be West Coast and Carlton by about a combined 170 points.

Alternatively Collingwood could lose to Sydney and get beaten by the Bulldogs by 40+

It is fair to say 4th is gone.
 
PrideofSA said:
5th would be much better than 6th.

I would back us in against the 8th team (Essendon, Port, Hawthon or whoever else is trying not to make it) at home.
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I want you to go through our last four years finals history before you post something like that.

No AFC supporter has any reason to be cocky in the month of September, I will be wrapped if we win one finals game, so lets do that before we start coming and saying this team or that team is going to be a 'walk in the park' the AFC have a massive hurdle to get over first and that is to win in September.
 

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My thoughts exactly Jenny. Bullies put EVERYTHING into that game tonight, they had a reason to win, Geelong didn't. Will be very interesting to see how they pull up next week. IMO they have to keep the foot to the floor, they let up for one week to rest up for finals and they may get caught napping come September. In saying that they looked a class outfit tonight.

Lets hope we finish off our last two games to secure 5th. Come on you crow boys
 
Sydney will beat Brisbane at the SCG in Rnd 22. Barry, Crouch and O'Loughlin's last games. There is no safer bet.

If we beat West Coast but lose to Carlton, I have us 6th playing Brisbane at AAMI.

If we beat both West Coast and Carlton, I have us 5th playing Essendon at AAMI.
 
pjcrows said:
Sydney will beat Brisbane at the SCG in Rnd 22. Barry, Crouch and O'Loughlin's last games. There is no safer bet.

If we beat West Coast but lose to Carlton, I have us 6th playing Brisbane at AAMI.

If we beat both West Coast and Carlton, I have us 5th playing Essendon at AAMI.
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That would be the highest probable outcome out of the ones suggested. If Port lose tomorrow, I reckon Essendon have got 8th spot even if they lose to Freo. It would've been a cracker game if I wasn't so nervous for a team I don't support!
 
I would rather finish 4th (unlikely) or 5th rather than 6th/7th.

4th for the double chance obviously.

5th means if we beat Essendon, we'll be on the opposite side of the draw to St Kilda.

6th/7th puts us on track for a potential PF against St Kilda - I'd like to avoid that.
 
brucetiki said:
I would rather finish 4th (unlikely) or 5th rather than 6th/7th.

4th for the double chance obviously.

5th means if we beat Essendon, we'll be on the opposite side of the draw to St Kilda.

6th/7th puts us on track for a potential PF against St Kilda - I'd like to avoid that.
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Well we know that 4th is out of the question in reality.

If you're correct about finishing 5th and then winning puts us on the opposite side of St Kilda, then that's what I want.
IMO we are capable of beating all of the others when we put our act together.
 
Last year still hurts... to be honest we had the top 4 and St Kilda took it away from us and we had to play Collingwood at home. That was not good!

The worst case scenario is that we play Brisbane at the Gabba in week 1 and if we lose then all the blame goes out to the coach for another finals failure (not good at all). That game is most likely going to be on the Friday Night. I really don't want this to happen. Brisbane are undefeated in home finals.

We can win both our remaining games and get a Saturday Afternoon home final (not surprisingly the way the AFL schedules our home finals) vs either Hawthorn, Essendon, or Port. A game we should have a good chance to win and give us a huge boost of belief going into 2010.

For Neil Craig to coach his first ever final at the MCG we have to get a win in week 1 and then we'll play at the MCG (at night) for week 2. We're a good side at the MCG no doubt about it and I think we are a chance to reach a prelim final from outside the top 4.
 

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NTRabbit said:
We coughed up 4th spot when we lost to Collingwood, this was just the last nail in any realistic hope.
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we had our chance and weren't good enough. the Bullies had theirs last night and they took it, simple as that. we're not far off the mark though.
 
bus24 said:
5th is fine.

Only real difference is an away semi final, really.
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That is a ridiculous comment, there is a world of difference.

Top 4 = 1 win from a prelim final with one guaranteed home match

bottom 8 = 2 wins from a prelim final with only one possible home match.

Thats the reason why under the new system, the grand final is always between two teams in the top 4.
 
PrideofSA said:
What are the chances of us hammering West Coast and Carlton and the Bulldogs getting hammered by Collingwood and finishing 4th on %?

It's possible, just unlikely.

We could pull a St Kilda last year and win by over 100 pts and take 4th lol.
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Thats about as likely as one of us getting lucky with Jennifer Hawkins
 
It is now unlikely we will finish 4th but we must win at least 1 finals game otherwise i see this season as a failure. It started off as a rebuilding season but the expectations have lifted due to that 7 game winning streak. Going out in the first week again will really affect our squad mentally. I see it as demoralizing as it would be 3 years in a row and I would start questioning some players abilities to step up in big games.
 
moogerfooger said:
we had our chance and weren't good enough. the Bullies had theirs last night and they took it, simple as that. we're not far off the mark though.
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:thumbsu:

The Geelong game at skilled and the Collingwood game were our chances for a top four finish and we couldnt cut the mustard.
 

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