Tour de France 2018

[Agent93]

Is there any way in the live tour tracker you can see who is in what group?

 

[Vader]

Dumb question sorry- will his team go back and try to help him

Unlikely. If he can't get over these climbs, then he's totally stuffed for the rest of the tour. It only gets harder from here on in.

 

[Ok Boomer]

Cya next year Cav

 

[Vader]

One thing which constantly amuses me is how bad their maths is when calculating the cut-off time for each stage.

They're talking about this stage having an 18 or 19% cut-off. The stage is 200km (give or take), and they're going at 43kph, so the stage time is going to be just under 5 hours. Call it 280 minutes. Even at 10%, that means the cut-off is 28 minutes. At 18% it's more than 45 min.

In order to miss the cut-off Cavendish would have to lose 45 min in 70km, or 30 seconds per km. He shouldn't lose that much time, not on this stage.

 

[Agent93]

In order to miss the cut-off Cavendish would have to lose 45 min in 70km, or 30 seconds per km. He shouldn't lose that much time, not on this stage.

I hear there's gastro going round...

 

[Vader]

I hear there's gastro going round...

Apparently Michael Matthews didn't start this stage, after suffering all night. Dumoulin didn't look well, when they showed him back at the team car earlier.

The problem with the Grand Tours is that the body just doesn't have the chance to recover from something like that. Today's stage is 203km, then they have to back up and ride another 181km tomorrow. The riders need to refuel constantly, or they'll become totally exhausted. Gastro means they can't refuel, and they go downhill quickly. If it doesn't get them today, it will probably get them tomorrow.

What this means is that Cav may get through today's stage - but even if he does, his chances of getting through tomorrow are slim at best.

** Assuming Cav has gastro.

 

[Vader]

Cav should be fine. He's only 4 minutes behind the peleton with 50km to go. He's lost 4 min in 20km. He'll probably finish 15-20 min down, but that's still well within the time limit.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

It amuses me how tactical/high stakes this break is getting considering all that's on the line is wearing the Polkadots for a stage or two.

 

[Reign Man]

It amuses me how tactical/high stakes this break is getting considering all that's on the line is wearing the Polkadots for a stage or two.

Stage win is on the line, not that I think they will make it.

 

[Ok Boomer]

Cav and Kittel 9 and a half minutes down with 30km left.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Stage win is on the line, not that I think they will make it.

Surely they know they got no chance for the stage.

 

[Vader]

Surely they know they got no chance for the stage.

The breakaway got to within 2km of the finish line on Tuesday night. They just have to hope and pray that the peleton gets it wrong. It does happen occasionally. That said, the breakaways have a much greater chance of succeeding in the 2nd and 3rd weeks, once the time gaps have opened up after the first mountain stages.

Breakaways have no chance of succeeding when they have riders behaving like complete d!ckheads, with Edet proving that Cousen isn't the only stupidly selfish rider in the peleton. Maybe it's a French thing. Voeckler used to do the same thing, but he was entertaining and several classes above this pair of idiots. Actually being good is a massive redeeming feature.

 

[Vader]

Stage 12: Brest to Mur de Bretagne Guerledan
For those of you who are not familiar with the Mur, it's the most famous climb in the Britanny region of France. Cadel Evans won here in 2011, with Contador embarrassing himself after celebrating a 2nd place finish. It was Evans' only stage win on his way to the 2011 overall victory (he had other stage wins in other years).

The Mur is a nasty little climb - 2km at an average of 6.9%, with a 12% section near the base. This is definitely not a stage for sprinters like Gaviria, Greipel, Kittel and Cavendish. To win on the Mur you need the ability to go uphill fast, with a punchy acceleration at the finish. Favourites for this stage will be Alaphillippe, Gilbert, GVA, Valverde and Sagan. Given his current form, Sagan has to be the red hot favourite to claim his 3rd stage of this year's Tour.

With 3x Cat 3 and 1x Cat 4 climbs the stage is definitely lumpy, but the highest altitude achieved is only 340m, so it's hardly mountainous.

We could see a change in the yellow jersey tonight... maybe. Gilbert is now just 3 seconds behind GVA, and a 1st or 2nd place finish would see him overtate GVA by virtue of the time bonuses on offer. Gilbert finished 3rd last night, and he's definitely one of the favourites for tonight's finish on the Mur.

There are enough KoM points on offer that we could see a change in the polka dot jersey as well. Skujins and Chavanel are locked together on 4pts, with Calmejane on 3pts. There are 7pts on offer tonight, though I can't see the breakaway claiming the points for the final (2nd) ascent of the Mur.

Gaviria got nothing from last night's finish, and won't get anything tonight either - Sagan's stranglehold on the green jersey is already unbreakable. Only a DNF can prevent him from claiming the green again this year. Sagan may not be the fastest sprinter in the peleton, but he gets to so many finishes and so many intermediate sprints, that the pure sprinters just can't match his ability to accumulate points.

 

[drd23]

Favourites for this stage will be Phillipe, Gilbert, GVA, Valverde and Sagan.

Who is the first person in that list? Julian Alaphilippe, is that a misplaced comma in Gilbert's full name or a puncheur I haven't heard of called Phillipe (which is entirely possible)?

 

[Vader]

Who is the first person in that list? Julian Alaphilippe, is that a misplaced comma in Gilbert's full name or a puncheur I haven't heard of called Phillipe (which is entirely possible)?

Correct.. it's Alaphillippe. I was just about to correct it.

 

[Agent93]

It amuses me how tactical/high stakes this break is getting considering all that's on the line is wearing the Polkadots for a stage or two.

From what I've seen this sort of stuff seems to happen in the grand tours moreso than any other multi-stage race. The breakaway riders just get antsy way too early.

Actually being good is a massive redeeming feature.

I'm loving Chavanel's tour so far. I reckon he's doing it for camera time more than anything.

What's the big B for in tonight's stage?

 

[pieman123]

Its a shame Matthews had to pull out, had a big chance of winning stage 5 and 6.

 

[Vader]

From what I've seen this sort of stuff seems to happen in the grand tours moreso than any other multi-stage race. The breakaway riders just get antsy way too early.

I think it's about French riders wanting to impress, in the big French race. Note that the teams in the breakaways so far have all been French, and it's mostly been the Pro-Continental outfits. These are the teams with small budgets, who usually don't get a chance to participate in the big races with big television audiences. The riders are going in the breakaways to give their sponsors television coverage, and maybe trying to win themselves a contract with a World Tour team.

The French trade teams are there to "animate" the race. Without them, the first few stages would be deadly dull, as none of the World Tour teams are going to be sending their riders out in breakaways when they know there is barely any chance of the breakaway succeeding.

I'm loving Chavanel's tour so far. I reckon he's doing it for camera time more than anything.

Chavanel just loves getting in a breakaway. He's done it every year for the last 18 years. The sponsors love him because he's guaranteed to give them lots of television exposure. He loves doing it because sometimes, just sometimes, he manages to pull it off.

What's the big B for in tonight's stage?

B is the Bonus Sprint, which is new to the Tour in 2018. There are 3-2-1 second time bonuses for the first 3 riders across the line, as distinct from the traditional intermediate sprint (S) which is worth points.

It's not a bad innovation. In the early stages, when the time gaps are small, it provides an opportunity for the sprinters to gain some time and maybe have a shot at getting into the yellow, noting that there are also time bonuses for the first 3 riders at the finish as well this year. In the mountain stages, it gives the GC riders a mid-stage opportunity to pick up some time bonuses after the sprinters have been dispatched - so we could see the likes of Froome & Porte sprinting mid-stage.

Gilbert used the Bonus Sprint to move himself closer to GVA's yellow jersey last night. He came 3rd in both the Bonus Sprint and the Finish, moving himself 3 seconds closer to GVA in the process. He could claim the yellow tonight, if he picks up enough bonus seconds.

 

[Vader]

Its a shame Matthews had to pull out, had a big chance of winning stage 5 and 6.

He had a chance... I don't know that I'd call it a "big" chance.

 

[Vader]

Does anyone else feel a bit strange watching a Grand Tour without Adam Hansen in the peleton?

 

[Orange Agent]

Might be one to stay up for.

 

[Bigelow]

Does anyone else feel a bit strange watching a Grand Tour without Adam Hansen in the peleton?

Spent the first couple of nights looking for him in the peleton.

 

[Freakie]

I found it strange that BMC chased so hard last night to defend GVA's yellow but then realised that BMC don't have a sponsor and most likely want to show investors that they are winning. Dissapointing for Porte as it looks like he will have little help come week three if BMC do that again tonight.

 

[Orange Agent]

I found it strange that BMC chased so hard last night to defend GVA's yellow but then realised that BMC don't have a sponsor and most likely want to show investors that they are winning. Dissapointing for Porte as it looks like he will have little help come week three if BMC do that again tonight.

Ive read it was tactics that backfired, this was a pre-targeted GVA stage rather than defending yellow and he admits he got it wrong by chasing attacks too early.

 

[The King!]

The kiwi rider is keen