Why, Why... Why?

[Oaksnaf]

A few posts in the follow my sportsbet thread made me think a little.

There are two sides.

The tipster.
The follower.

How much information does the follower need to place a bet.
How much information does the tipster need to justify a tip?

Time management says there is no point in trying to justify yourself as you don't really care (or shouldn't care) whether others are following your selections.

Time management says that most followers don't really read a long analysis.

Although. Our ego says we have to PROVE ourselves as a WINNER. Even if we are losing, lets just highlight the winners and ignore those running tally's. Especially when they get into the NEGATIVES.


Tipping is easy.

Sale Race 1 #1

Comments are easy.

"Quickest beginner in this field."

Stats are easy.

"37/88 races at Sale in 2010 have been on by those leading at the first split.....
Box 1.... 50% of runners have led and won. So find an early leader from Box 1 and your 50% there."

But that takes time.


Bet type?

WIN


That's so simple.


Form a market.....

#1 $2.40


That's simple too.



Ok so Sale Race 1 #1 back if $2.40 for the WIN.


----------------------------
Now I'm lost. This thing should win judging by the post. Why do they want $2.40?

It's $2.22 betfair.... surely thats enough. Looks a good price for a WINNER.....I mean you can't go wrong backing winners.

I'll just put $20 on it.... as thats what I do. And since #1 should win, I'll couple with a few exotics. Yeah #3,4,8 look good too.

Wow its drifted out to $2.60. I'll have to get on that. Another $20.

Wait.... #3 is getting smashed on the tote. I'll have to have a quinella 1,3. Maybe stand-out #3 just in case it wins. I'll kick myself if #3 wins.


WOHOOOO #1 wins.... $20 X $2.22 and $20 X $2.60. - commission.


Ah bugga #5 runs 2nd.....


Net profit? I don't know.....whats the next race He's on FIRE!!
-------------------------------------

It certainly is easy to tip, explain, justify and post a bet type.

But it is exceptoinally hard to program a 'follower' into doing the exact same thing. They will all go back to their own form of punting and doubtful mind waves. And even the tipster themselves won't do exactly what they write....... a HUGE problem.




We also must remember, that not all punters have betfair. Not all punters can bet at the jump. Not all punters have the bank, to keep on following. They are looking for a HIT straight away.

So afterall this changing.... WHY should the tipster put so much effort into things, if the 'followers' arn't going to do the right thing? Also....Why should tipsters LIE about what they do?

YOU CANT PROVE THAT..... No I can't. But I'm pretty sure that the above scenario does take place. Not many admit it.....



How many times does the invisble bet appear? Not that we should care. But it is kind of pointless and misleading and giving others a false sense of security that they too will one day WIN BIG.


Some of the stories you read/hear are no doubt true. But how on Earth is that beneficial to anyone, and why do I care?

"Yeah mate, I just won $1200 on that last race". Big deal. $12, $120, $1200. Who really gives a rats ass. Anyone can win that on a single day.

You ask them "You winning this year".

And you get a piss poor response. Because they have ZERO clue as to what has gone in and what has been won.



--------------------------------

So lets get into the mindset of things.

I'll post a selection. Post several bet types with different amounts to each bet type. Explain everything in the market. And provide all the statistics.

But at the end of the day. The most important thing. Lies between.....

Form Analysis and Placing a Bet.


And that important factor. Is our little brains.

WHY didn't I do this.....
WHY couldn't I just.......
WHY did I change my mind......
WHY
WHY WHY WHY



Realistically why would winning punters give away their selections? Realistically SOME do. Most don't.

Do they give away ALL their selections. No. Why?
Because of time. And well.....many other reasons.



Maybe we should cut the crap out of tipping.
Maybe not. It is the internet and we can be whoever we want to be.
Afterall the tipster doesn't have to prove that they bet on their selections.
They can just post their Running Tally to show that they are in profit.....

But that's not the real world. Thats the fake EGO world where we can all be winners. Yep thats a happy place. ALL WINNERS!!!



------------------------------------------------


Maybe we should try and help each other.


Maybe!!!

 

[sethlad]

I respect the few guys here who post tips regularly,I only post the occasional horse tip simply because youre on a hiding to nothing.

You cant teach patience,experience & restraint over the internet
Without these,you are lost in the long term

So few punters are long term survivors for all the above reasons & more.
At the track you used to see them come & go quickly,now its different.

This board has lots of genuine regulars who are willing to give their advice.
But it's easier to go your own way than bite the bullet & ask for help.

seth

 

[Oaksnaf]

That is a good point Seth. You cannot learn those important aspects of punting over the internet.

But you can start to learn the basics and understand certain aspects that need to be explored in the real world.

Which punting environment kills your patience? When your at the TAB? Online? When your with your mates? On-Track?

There is a huge emotional difference between betting online and at the TAB. Especially since the level of distractions are different and the level of information available is different. The influences are different.

What factors do we look at on-track. How many extra bets do we place/change due to what we witness. The words "betting plunges" attract a lot of people. Seeing BIG bets attract a lot of people. Etc Etc.

When we punt online, how many bets do we have that are out of our area of expertise. Simply, because of fast money or even boredom.

At the TAB do we travel alone, do we travel with mates. Do we HAVE to win in front of others to become 'king' like?

All of a sudden you need to have an 80% S/R to impress your mates. As 1 hour and 30 minutes with no collect is a long time when you are with your mates who are having a punt.



We can sit here behind the lap-top and pretend that these issues don't exist.... hang on a second. The cat just pissed on the carpet and my brother broke his arm when slipping on the piss..... not that it is likely to happen. But there are aspects in our normal day-to-day life that need to be attended too. And without time management skills you are likely to struggle and rush to analyse a race, in which you must bet on.


Which brings us to another point. Just because we analyse a race, does not mean we have to bet on it.

No shit. That is BLOODY hard.

 

[sethlad]

I dont have any mates so its easy for me (married for years), dont do social betting days,
if I ever go to the race with real people I have already placed my bets.
Social race days are just that,no wagering at all.

This Saturday night is the last meeting at MV trots.
I spent a good part of my youth & adult punting years here so it will be a social yet sobering night.
The form will be completed & all bets placed before I arrive at the track.

Sounds harsh,even a tad sad but for me,there is no other way that I can control those factors you mention.

seth

 

[TheTrav]

I enjoy your insight on here always Oaksnaf, I don't really have anything to add besides that

I'm learning slowly what kills me on the punt, the main thing for me is, getting up early, then adding extra bets that weren't planned into my punting day, be it on the net or at the tab/track, always seems to happen to me.

 

[Oaksnaf]

There is nothing wrong with making mistakes and having extra bets or losing on the punt.

Most hobbies are expensive. Having an addiction is something else though.

I enjoy swimming and put a lot of effort into it, but I'm not very good at it. I try and beat myself each time I swim and thats whats important to me. But I know that I'll never win any comps.

What we have to honestly realise is what is realistic and what is a dream.

Many people dream of winning the lottery, that is why they play it. Do you gamble to win large amounts of money in one hit so that it is life changing?

Are you bored with your day job and want a quick fix with all the glossy lights?

Or are you self consumed and enjoy the ego side of punting?

If it is just a hobby, then we need to be careful about time management and make sure that the hobby doesn't impact on our daily lives.


These are hard parts to come to terms with.


How far into a hobby do you get?

How much time do you spend on a hobby before it becomes something else?

And if it is just a hobby, what makes your tips so much more special than the person next to you who is also doing this as a hobby.

You might be more knowledgable, but you might also be a poor punter.

Good analysis will always be beaten by bad punting.
Good punting will always make Bad Analysis profitable.

A bad mental state will ruin everything and anything everytime.

 

[kenrosewall]

My answer to all this is that I find I never really got anything out of punting on my own. I didn't have the time (or the energy) to complete detailed form analysis, and therefore just punted to fill some sort of void when watching sports.

I found the best way to manage this, is to start up a Punter's Club amongst mates or in the workplace. I'm involved in one with each group and it fulfills all I need without costing me money (except the intial $100 outlay which I consider 'lost'). I get the ego boost I need from picking a winner, something to barrack for with my mates, something to talk about, all this while only betting $10 a week max. Both clubs have continued for a couple of years and we always seem to end up about breaking even. If we have a big win, we take that money out and have a night out or similiar. This is therefore a hobby for me.

P.S. Oaksnaf, is your surname Walsh?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Ken, have you seen his estate in Tasmania. Quite impressive. There are a few art museums who arn't a fan of David Walsh as he has paid some good $$ for his art collection.

A few articles about him if you google his name.

 

[cam]

This thread reads like it should be on a problem gamblers' website, rather than a tipping forum.

I started sports betting early 2009 after discovering Betfair. I've never 'gambled' before. I always viewed it as the pastime of losers and people who had no concept of probability (or reality for that matter). Having worked in the gambling industry for many years, I have seen the reality of what gambling can do to people - a lot of people.

The reason I became intrigued with Betfair was because it was a betting 'exchange'. There was no built-in margin (eg. TAB) - it was just your bets matched by other punters. Now this intrigued me because I reasoned that if I am smarter than over half the punters on Betfair, then I'll make a profit.

So an initial investment in Betfair of $30 (which I sweated on!) in January 2009 has grown into a modest profit of $2100 (as of today).

But it was not all plain sailing. There were ups and downs and there were moments of madness and poor discipline. By Feb 2009, I had turned my $30 into $1,500 and I thought I was invincible. But by about June, I had reduced my total profit down to about $300.

How did I lose most of my profits, when earlier in the year I could do no wrong? I realised that as I carefully built my bank up, my confidence and recklessness also grew. I seemed to be on a repetitive cycle. As my profits diminished, my discipline would increase until my profits went back up again and so forth. I was ahead. I was 'gambling' with someone else's money!

The point I'm trying to make is that discipline is a major key. A rush of blood after having a series of nice wins will undo a week's work in a day.

I now keep all results in a database which I analyse regularly to see if there is any pattern to the wins and losses. To see if there are any leaks I can plug. To see if there are any wells I should be tapping more efficiently. Since using my database, the profits have been slow, but steady... This is the only way.

I could hand out sports tips each week, but there's no point. I would only be encouraging the problem gamblers. Without a combination of 3 things: 1. Discipline, 2. Event Knowledge and 3. Money Management, you are absolutely guaranteed to lose.

The tipsters out there are quite happy to give you tips each week. They're not really giving anything away. They know that good tips are only part of the puzzle - and the least important part I might add.

If you enjoy punting as a pastime, then fine. Resign yourself to losing money each year as a bit of fun.

But if you seriously intend to turn a profit, well that's another thing entirely. It can be done, but it's hard work.