Will tanking help Carlton?

[40yearBLUE]

I dont suggest "list management" is what Carlton is about. I started the thread because it looks like some of our opponents may be engaging in it.

I did however suggest that it might be better to finish 5th or 6th rather than 4th in this years finals so that we dont have to play StKilda or Geelong first up. I think these 2 will play off for the flag no matter what, realistically I dont think this is our year (stranger things have happened but on the balance of probabilities and form no) but having a mind to the age of our list it might be better to finish 5th, win the elimination and perhaps win the first semi and get to the prelim, rather than get smashed by one of the heavyweights in week 1 and perhaps not recover for week 2. But I dont suggest we "manage our list" to avoid 4th, if it pans out that way great if not then we get a double chance.

Just me thinking out aloud.

 

[celtic_pride]

I dont suggest "list management" is what Carlton is about. I started the thread because it looks like some of our opponents may be engaging in it.

I did however suggest that it might be better to finish 5th or 6th rather than 4th in this years finals so that we dont have to play StKilda or Geelong first up. I think these 2 will play off for the flag no matter what, realistically I dont think this is our year (stranger things have happened but on the balance of probabilities and form no) but having a mind to the age of our list it might be better to finish 5th, win the elimination and perhaps win the first semi and get to the prelim, rather than get smashed by one of the heavyweights in week 1 and perhaps not recover for week 2. But I dont suggest we "manage our list" to avoid 4th, if it pans out that way great if not then we get a double chance.

Just me thinking out aloud.

Get back to reality...

There is no way we're going to win the flag this year, losing to Freo earlier this year is testament to that fact ...

Stop getting delusions of grandeur and just be happy with the fact we're going to qualify for the finals for the first time since 2001.

You always try and win as many games possible, but don't for a moment think Carlton are any chance to topple St.Kilda or Geelong in the finals ...

It's complete and utter foolishness to suggest Carlton are capable of winning the flag this year.

 

[celtic_pride]

Take the fun out of everything CP.

Where's the romantic in you, and if that's not there while there is a pulse there is a chance.
Odds are against us for sure, but odds are against winning Tattslotto as well, but someone always does.

You may be right and you probably are right but maybe, just maybe you may be proved wrong.

Anyway, in the meantime I will be barracking for us to win every game from here on in, with or against the odds

Well of course I'd be delighted to prove wrong, but I'm of the firm belief that if you can't qualify for the top 4 (which we won't, Adelaide or Collingwood will nab 4th spot) you have no chance to win the flag (it hasn't been done since 1998 where a team outside the top 4 has won the flag)

Some people have too 'high expectations', I for one would just be happy if we finished 6th or 7th and won 'one final' and learn that as a learning curve for next year, where we can start to build a serious campaign for the flag (especially once we get Walker and Warnock and Waite back all fit and healthy)

This season is just an 'educational' process for the youngsters and playing group, most of whom have never played in finals before ....

It will be a big achievement just to make 'finals' this year, and aiming 'high' is a good dream, but for this season, clearly an 'unrealistic' one ...

I don't think anyone is going to stop Geelong or St.Kilda making the Granny anyway (they have lost two games between them for the year)

I think next year is when we're going to get our act together and be a legit chance for the top 4, lack of finals experience is a major thing that will hold this group back from winning the flag this year ...

 

[40yearBLUE]

Get back to reality...

There is no way we're going to win the flag this year, losing to Freo earlier this year is testament to that fact ...

Stop getting delusions of grandeur and just be happy with the fact we're going to qualify for the finals for the first time since 2001.

You always try and win as many games possible, but don't for a moment think Carlton are any chance to topple St.Kilda or Geelong in the finals ...

It's complete and utter foolishness to suggest Carlton are capable of winning the flag this year.

Do you work on being this big a tool or are you just drop forged?

If you read what I have typed, you will see that I in fact have stated exactly that, I dont think we can win the flag this year, I dont think we can beat the Saints or the Cats. That is exactly what I said.

 

[celtic_pride]

Do you work on being this big a tool or are you just drop forged?

If you read what I have typed, you will see that I in fact have stated exactly that, I dont think we can win the flag this year, I dont think we can beat the Saints or the Cats. That is exactly what I said.

If that is being the case, then it doesn't matter where we finish does it ??
But having the double chance would be great, more finals experience would be a good thing (even if we got belted in the first or second week)

Saying that finishing 5th or 6th is better then finishing 4th, is just stupid.

I would love for the boys to play Geelong or the Saints in a final, just to get a lesson on what it is required to be a flag contender.

 

[Malifice]

You always try and win as many games possible, but don't for a moment think Carlton are any chance to topple St.Kilda or Geelong in the finals ...

It's complete and utter foolishness to suggest Carlton are capable of winning the flag this year.

Another negative post from you. How about a bit of optimism for a change?

Sigh.

Lets bring the Carlton arrogance back to Carlton. We exist to win flags remember. Our rightful place is at the top of the ladder.

Why is it so absurd to suggest we are capable of beating the Saints anyway?

We pushed them pretty hard a few weeks back IIRC. And injuries and form can hurt any team, any time.

Who would've thought the Hawks would have trumped Geelong last year... but it happened.

There wouldnt be a Carlton supporter out there that has any expectation of winning the flag this year dude. If we pulled something out of our ass, jagged it and actually won it, I'd be as surprised as anyone.

But we're a chance. A very very slim chance, but a chance.

 

[40yearBLUE]

If that is being the case, then it doesn't matter where we finish does it ??
But having the double chance would be great, more finals experience would be a good thing (even if we got belted in the first or second week)

Saying that finishing 5th or 6th is better then finishing 4th, is just stupid.

I would love for the boys to play Geelong or the Saints in a final, just to get a lesson on what it is required to be a flag contender.

Do I have to re explain everything I write for you. Can you not just re read what I typed?

I stated quite clearly why I thought it would be beneficial to our young group why I thought not being mauled in a final first up would help the confidence next year, hence my suggestion finished 5th might be better for us.

Please try a bit harder to comprehend.

 

[Malifice]

Sydney placing the que in the rack?

THE SYDNEY Swans plan to play schoolboy Daniel Hannebery in his first AFL game this Saturday against Carlton at Docklands.
Hannebery has been playing for Xavier College in Melbourne and has only spent the last three weeks in Sydney as he has been busy completing his year 12 studies.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/80786/default.aspx

 

[celtic_pride]

Do I have to re explain everything I write for you. Can you not just re read what I typed?

I stated quite clearly why I thought it would be beneficial to our young group why I thought not being mauled in a final first up would help the confidence next year, hence my suggestion finished 5th might be better for us.

Please try a bit harder to comprehend.

Going around 'insulting' people for having different viewpoints isn't very productive ...

And sometimes getting 'belted' in finals gives sides 'fire in the belly' to go out and perform much better the following year ...

Case in point, Hawthorn were pretty deplorable in the semi-final against North Melbourne in 2007, and the next year, perhaps on the back of that insipid performance, they went out and won the flag.

Players learn from past defeats, especially in finals, and it gives the coach extra motivation for the boys to go and do better the following season ...

 

[40yearBLUE]

Going around 'insulting' people for having different viewpoints isn't very productive ...

And sometimes getting 'belted' in finals gives sides 'fire in the belly' to go out and perform much better the following year ...

Case in point, Hawthorn were pretty deplorable in the semi-final against North Melbourne in 2007, and the next year, perhaps on the back of that insipid performance, they went out and won the flag.

Players learn from past defeats, especially in finals, and it gives the coach extra motivation for the boys to go and do better the following season ...

Fair point, well argued. Previously you used words like "just stupid". See how much respect you get when you argue your points instead of insulting people, you get what you give.

Now having said that I think given the strength of the 2 powerhouses this year that perhaps finishing 5th or 6th was better than 4th, well I am not the only one, in an article by Rohan Connelly about the Hawks today he says:

"Fourth spot, nominally, is a grand prize. You do have to wonder, though, after the Saints' demolition of the Crows, whether even the final double chance is fool's gold this season such was the gap between these two".

http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnew...grounded/2009/07/19/1247941826118.html?page=2

So it is not "just stupid", many people are thinking it. I would rather we finished 5th and won our elimination to get to the semi rather than get belted in a qualifying final to end up at the same place. Then having won the elimination we might also win the semi (against the side that was belted in the first week) to get to the prelim, then who knows what might happen. But I just cant see either Stkilda or Geelong losing first week of the finals and I would rather we did not have to face them in the first week.

 

[celtic_pride]

I don't view it that way, 30YB
If all we want is the hope of winning a final, I'd say coming 5th. is the better option.
If we want to win the Premiership we must be in the top 4.
Yes, I may be crazy for such a thought but let's look at things this way.

We play St.Kilda in the first week of finals and we win. What if?
We seem to be concerned about the ego deflation considering a loss, but what would be the upside considering a win?
Chances are we wouldn't but we only have to go as far back as last years Grand Final to see that odds can be defied.

And I honestly think, if we play St.Kilda in a final and lose, we can take a lot out of that game, and actually learn from it for next season ...
The ironic thing is that we haven't beaten the Saints for yonks, and yet this year, we are the side that's been closest to 'toppling' them (take away the first dreadful 15 minutes in the first quarter and we would have won) and I think it has shown how far this playing group has come.

Imagine as well, if we became the first side to beat the Saints this year as well (in the qualifiying final) ... Dare I say it, the boys could actually get the self-belief and confidence to go all the way (to the GF at least ?)

I certainly would much rather be tested against battle hardened sides in the finals like St.Kilda and Geelong, in order for the youngsters (most of whom have never played in finals before) to learn and see firsthand, the level required to be legitimate premiership contenders.

 

[40yearBLUE]

I doubt anyone could question Parkins cred, and he pretty much endorses my view. Whilst anything is possible, none of us truly beleive we are flag material this year. So everything we do this year is in preperation for our genuine flag tilt which could be as early as next year. Whilst I agree losing a final teaches you plenty, winning one does too, and for that I believe finishing 4th and running up against the top 2 first up will do more harm than good. Here is what Parkin said today:

"But Parkin, a self-professed pessimist, argues that it would be better, in the long haul, if the Blues finished fifth-eighth on the ladder. To be in the top four would exceed their true station, he contended, and could be detrimental to the grand premiership plan".

"My try-and-be-realistic view is that the good thing would be for Carlton to make the eight, because that was the expectation, and possibly win a final. And if you finish fourth and then maybe get clouted in two, that might have more of a detrimental effect than finishing in the top eight and maybe winning a final … in that it was building, rather than built".

Would you call Parko's thinking "just stupid" C_P?

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/rfnews/carlton-to-the-four/2009/07/20/1247941873473.html

To be balanced, Mark Maclure does not agree, and says so in the article, my reason for bumping it was to show that educated footy brains are thinking these things so they are not silly to think by fans.

 

[40yearBLUE]

May I cut across your query to C_P

I'll attest that Parko has an amazing football brain, and may well be miles ahead in his understanding of our current group.
He would certainly be privvy to more inside knowledge than I, obviously.

I will although bet he has not seen as much of Carlton in the last two years than I have, and for that matter many other teams also.

Right now St.Kilda and Geelong are clearly the teams to beat.
That is obvious for one and all to see.
Will they fight out in the Grand Final? It looks more than likely, doesn't it?

In a couple of weeks time, we will be playing Geelong at the M.C.G.
We'll go in as underdogs, but certainly not as no hopers, true?
So what if we won?
Would the notion of finishing fourth seem ludicrous? I hardly think so.

We are only now truly getting our squad together for the year, after trialling 37 players to date
Will it be too late to maximise it within the short timeline afforded to us until finals now? I don't really know, but I do know this much:
Get our best team and best attitude on the park and we will be more than competitive against anyone.

It was not just directed at C_P, rather anyone that would label another's idea's as "just stupid" without thinking through what they are arguing or who they are arguing with. I grant you some of the ideas that are floated on this forum are not too well thought through, but I think I have, via my contributions earnt a little more respect. I know you have a different take and you argue it well and I have no issue with your point of view.

But back to the point at hand. Beating Geelong in 3 weeks time wont mean much in the scheme of things, for example, will Geelong be "managing" their list to maximize their September success given they have accepted they can not longer finish top and have settled on 2nd. You are a past advocate of list management and if the game is of no consequence (eg 3 games clear in second, 2 rounds left before finals) they may well not field the same team we would play in a final, nor have the same intensity.

Geelong and StKilda have both tasted finals failure so they have that fire in their belly. We have 1 or 2 players that has played in a final (Judd and Fev?) 4 if you count Hadley and Stevens but neither is currently in our best 22. I would have no issue with finishing 4th, but I would also have no problem with 5th or 6th, both give us about the same chance of winning a final. I dont mind a finals loss but would prefer it came in the prelim rather than week 1, which I feel is a certainty if we finish 4th. We might just snag a prelim win against one of the same teams if we meet them there first up. A prelim is do or die for both clubs, and with expectation on us having been met and them not, nerves could play a negative part for them, but week one and I see both of them winning comfortably no matter who they play. Wherever we finish in the 8 is fine by me, given it was what we aimed for, 5th or 6th is about where I see we are. I think we are top 4 capable, I thought that at the start of the year and argued that and got shot down by people saying I was not being realistic, well here I am being realistic, we are top 4 capable but I would rather 5th on percentage thanks.

Thats my take. A fairly valid and widespread take it would seem.

 

[celtic_pride]

To be honest, what would be worse/more shattering for the club ???

We finish 4th and lose to say St.Kilda in the first week, but live to fight another day, and perhaps win a semi final in the next week to go to the premlin final, or we finish we were to finish 5th and play Essendon who are 8th and get rolled again by the Bombers ?

I know which scenario I'd much rather Carlton face ...

Also on another point, I'd love to finish 4th because that would mean we get to play a victorian final, the way the ladder is shaping up, we'll probably be forced to play Adelaide or Brisbane over there in week one ....
8 years without finals, and our first one could be interstate .... (if we finish 7th or 8th) ...

 

[Blue Bawls]

Get back to reality...

There is no way we're going to win the flag this year, losing to Freo earlier this year is testament to that fact ...

Stop getting delusions of grandeur and just be happy with the fact we're going to qualify for the finals for the first time since 2001.

You always try and win as many games possible, but don't for a moment think Carlton are any chance to topple St.Kilda or Geelong in the finals ...

It's complete and utter foolishness to suggest Carlton are capable of winning the flag this year.

I'm still stuck on this with increasing incredulity. I find it curious that a poor performance against a bottom side early in a season is a true barometer of finals form... Or maybe you're right - Geelong's loss to Collingwood last year was surely a sign. Shoulda put the house on Hawthorn...

 

[Malifice]

To be honest, what would be worse/more shattering for the club ???

We finish 4th and lose to say St.Kilda in the first week, but live to fight another day, and perhaps win a semi final in the next week to go to the premlin final, or we finish we were to finish 5th and play Essendon who are 8th and get rolled again by the Bombers ?

I know which scenario I'd much rather Carlton face ...

Also on another point, I'd love to finish 4th because that would mean we get to play a victorian final, the way the ladder is shaping up, we'll probably be forced to play Adelaide or Brisbane over there in week one ....
8 years without finals, and our first one could be interstate .... (if we finish 7th or 8th) ...

While I dont nomally agree with you c_p, I reckon you're on the money with this one.

I do NOT want to be playing Essendon or Adelaide/ Brisbane at home in an elimination final in the first week.

Much rather:

a) Finish 4th with a double chance. Worst case scenario if we lose the first game, we get to watch two finals this year, and get the double chance. And hey, we could just possibly roll the Saints.
b) Failing that play Adelaide or Brisbane at home by finishing 6th/ 5th, avoiding Essendon if at all possible.
c) Failing this, finish 8th/ 7th and play one of the Doggies/ Pies (Our bitches of late)